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ZhungeEX: PS4 and XBO 2020 Jan sales considerably lower than 360 and PS3 sales in Jan 2013. Switch remains steady.

policestationx

policestationx

Banned


Sharp drop for PS4 and XBO in January while Switch remains flat with a single digit difference in YOY without any major release like last year NSMBUD and Smash Ultimate December effect.

My NPD prediction sales
NSW - 6.7M
PS4 - 2.6M
XBO - 1.5M
PS5 - 2.2M
XSX - 2.8M
 
Newly Vacant

Newly Vacant

Member
I feel like 2019 wasn’t super amazing, and people just don’t have the impetus to grab a current gen console and explore the catalog. The volume of major, AAA games seems a lot smaller this generation. I mean, anecdotally, the casual gamers I know don’t really have that much excitement for the PS4 or XB1 library. At the end of the PS3 lifecycle, I remember people buying PS3 slims and God of War, and Uncharted, and Last of Us. This time, those same people aren’t talking about Red Dead, Uncharted, or Call of Duty.
 
policestationx

policestationx

Banned
Still baffled by Nintendo action for not releasing big game like Super Mario 3D World Deluxe edition in January instead of niche game like TMS.
 
fallingdove

fallingdove

Member
Is the assertion that the switch is the only console that is doing well? Are we purposely ignoring that:

- the switch is on year 3
- Xbox one and PS4 are on year 7
- the Switch cannibalized the sales of Nintendo’s wildly successful handheld
- this was the first generation that had a mid gen upgrade
- Sony and Microsoft announced their next gen efforts much earlier than with the last go-around
- PC has become an extremely compelling alternative to console
- The mobile and GaaS markets have accelerated

If analysts weren’t anticipating the current states of the PS4/Xbox One/Switch, they must have fallen asleep at the wheel.
 
F

FStubbs

Member
The 3DS was a wildly successful handheld? Really?

As of 2 years ago (when the Switch had completed its 1st year), the 3DS had eeked its way to just about 70 million sold in 7 years. I think you have the 3DS confused with the DS.

The PS4 is about 100 million, so if the 3DS was wildly successful, the PS4 is stratospheric.

For a comparison, the Switch is about 44 million after 3 years. It's on pace to beat the 3DS.
 
DunDunDunpachi

DunDunDunpachi

Patient MembeR
Vawn said:
How much were the price drops? Isn't PS4 still selling for $300?
Click to expand...
Yeah this was my first question as well.

PS4 and X1 are still pretty expensive when you take their age into account. They need to drop into that $150-$250 range and keep sailing for another 2+ years.
 
D

Deleted member 713885

Unconfirmed Member
At this point..
Everyone knows a new system is coming.
And I'm at the point where even I have 5 PS4's...
2 pro's hooked up, one that sounds like a jet engine, 2 non-pros..
I can always snag a used one for like $75 on my local FB swap page.

Who's running out to buy a new console?
 
Oddvintagechap

Oddvintagechap

Member
i feel like people exaggerate PS4’s decline. I actually reject the idea PS4 sales will start falling sharply after PS5.

This might end up being PS4’s biggest year yet. Cyberpunk might sell as much as Red Dead Redemption 2. TLOU is hot cakes. FF7 Remake is a game people been sucking in back alleys for. PS5 release basically means PS4 price drop. I dont think Sony realize how much the 300$ price is holding the PS4 back.
 
S

siekro1983

Banned
switch is down in terms of revenue so it sold a good amount less then last year, and it has 199$ SKU, it's all downhill from here. this year ps4 will make a nice gap in terms of overall units sold.
 
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InterMusketeer

InterMusketeer

Member
It feels like we've been anticipating next gen for like two years now. Both MS and Sony don't have much going on in terms of big new releases. MS just got none and Sony's been showing off the same games for years now. A permanent price drop would help too. I wouldn't be surprised if people aren't buying them as much anymore.
 
KingdomHeartsFan

KingdomHeartsFan

Member
Both companies have announced BC, I'd imagine most people aren't gonna waste money on a PS4/X1 when they can just get a next gen console that's releasing this year that plays the entire current gen library.
 
R

Rock And Roll

Member
FStubbs said:
The 3DS was a wildly successful handheld? Really?

As of 2 years ago (when the Switch had completed its 1st year), the 3DS had eeked its way to just about 70 million sold in 7 years. I think you have the 3DS confused with the DS.

The PS4 is about 100 million, so if the 3DS was wildly successful, the PS4 is stratospheric.

For a comparison, the Switch is about 44 million after 3 years. It's on pace to beat the 3DS.
Click to expand...

70 million isn't successful anymore? Maybe it seems that way because it didn't sell as much as previous Nintendo handhelds, but mobile gaming wasn't around back then taking a big part of Nintendo's market.
 
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GV82

GV82

Member
No Shit


- Games getting Delayed left right & Centre

- People waiting on next Gen because they thought it was going to be announced in jan/feb (ps5) with rumours of a higher price tag
I’d assume some people may be keeping back some of their gaming money towards the higher cost of the console

- Rumours of backwards compatibility with previous gens that may or maynot be enhanced with patches for old games much like the Xbox One X does, which is a different beast compared to what previous gen offered out of the gate again all we know is rumours but people are just waiting to see what happens

- more people buying buying Switches

- Games coming to gamepass particulary newish ones, so some people are orepared to wait for that, or EA Access/PSNow etc

- Other Factors which I may have forgot stuff like people waiting more on sales rather than buying at full price, a small portion who plan to or may have already made the jump to P.C gaming instead as theres more rumours & actual genuine games from ps4/Xbox coming to pc also
 
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vito_don_corleone_

vito_don_corleone_

Banned
“Daniel Ahmad” 🤣

On the other hand, some real data analysis:

06oKeI1.jpg


Why don’t we quote people who actually have access to real data but also know how to interpret it?
 
mcjmetroid

mcjmetroid

Member
He always came off like a twat on resetera. One of those "Insiders" who responds one with one word or cryptic answers to things as if he's so god damn busy with other shit all the time...
That site was full of them.

Also this comparison is absolute horseshit and not the least bit interesting. Someone is hungry for attention and needs social media attention.
 
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S

siekro1983

Banned
mcjmetroid said:
He always came off like a twat on resetera. One of those "Insiders" who responds one with one word or cryptic answers to things as if he's so god damn busy with other shit all the time...
That site was full of them.

Also this comparison is absolute horseshit and not the least bit interesting. Someone is hungry for attention and needs social media attention.
Click to expand...

Exactly. 360/ps3 sold 480k 2013. so if ps4/xbox sold 350k that would be a pretty good result imo.
 
Shin

Shin

Banned
Switch is quite the success story, hopefully Nintendo follows up properly and Wii U isn't repeated when the time comes.
Most amazing thing IMO is that people call it weak and what's not, yet it can run practically every game but then on the go.
I think it's quite a feat. to pull, you sacrifice somethings but you gain a whole new experience altogether, ideal system probably to a vast market and it's success is showing just that.
To top it off you have exclusives and Nintendo's own IP's, recipe for success and well deserved.
 
P

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
FStubbs said:
The 3DS was a wildly successful handheld? Really?

As of 2 years ago (when the Switch had completed its 1st year), the 3DS had eeked its way to just about 70 million sold in 7 years. I think you have the 3DS confused with the DS.

The PS4 is about 100 million, so if the 3DS was wildly successful, the PS4 is stratospheric.

For a comparison, the Switch is about 44 million after 3 years. It's on pace to beat the 3DS.
Click to expand...

Sure, it is going to do perhaps better than Wii U + 3DS, well not yet at least, but you also need to match it against Wii + DS or GCN + GBA, etc...

Nintendo know it too, hence the Switch Lite.
 
MoreJRPG

MoreJRPG

Suffers from extreme PDS
Both new consoles will struggle again in November. The markets changing, not many people want to drop $500 on a system. Switch will win Q4 again while the PC and mobile market continue to rabidly expand.
 
HeresJohnny

HeresJohnny

Member
It's a combination of them charging too much money for old hardware and trying to make a generation go on longer than it's viable for. For generations, a 5 year cycle was acceptable, but somehow, they got it in their heads last generation that they were going to make it last longer.
 
S

siekro1983

Banned
Branthrax said:
Both new consoles will struggle again in November. The markets changing, not many people want to drop $500 on a system. Switch will win Q4 again while the PC and mobile market continue to rabidly expand.
Click to expand...

LOL ps4 and xbone have sold over 60 milion in the US. the market is saturated by now. people buy these consoles for the same games. if there is supply switch will get smoked Q4. ps4 needs to be 199$ as well. switch got a massive boost last year because of the 199$ model, and pokemon. this year will see big declines.
 
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KungFucius

KungFucius

King Snowflake
fallingdove said:
Is the assertion that the switch is the only console that is doing well? Are we purposely ignoring that:

- the switch is on year 3
- Xbox one and PS4 are on year 7
- the Switch cannibalized the sales of Nintendo’s wildly successful handheld
- this was the first generation that had a mid gen upgrade
- Sony and Microsoft announced their next gen efforts much earlier than with the last go-around
- PC has become an extremely compelling alternative to console
- The mobile and GaaS markets have accelerated

If analysts weren’t anticipating the current states of the PS4/Xbox One/Switch, they must have fallen asleep at the wheel.
Click to expand...


No. The key point is that the decline in sales of current gen in their final year of being the systems of record are lower than the equivalent console sales last gen and that is worthy of mentioning as a starter for speculation. This could mean that more people who are in the market for a console (Sony or MS) are waiting for next gen, or that this gen is petering out differently than the last one for some other reason. Of course all those things play into it as well as some unknowns. The switch might be competing in this part of the cycle since the others are not as versatile and not much cheaper. The WiiU was newer in 2013 and gave very few a reason to buy it over a cheaper 360 or PS3.

Who buys a system at the end of the cycle? Is it just people who can finally afford it when they hit a sweet spot on price? Is it gamers on the other system or PC that want to play all the exclusives? Is it people replacing units or buying ones for another room? Is it recent divorcees who need to make sure the kid is entertained when he spends the weekend in their shitty apartment?
 
policestationx

policestationx

Banned
siekro1983 said:
LOL ps4 and xbone have sold over 60 milion in the US. the market is saturated by now. people buy these consoles for the same games. if there is supply switch will get smoked Q4. ps4 needs to be 199$ as well. switch got a massive boost last year because of the 199$ model, and pokemon. this year will see big declines.
Click to expand...


He also stated that prediction with no price drop in mind.

Big declines 🤭😁
 
S

siekro1983

Banned
policestationx said:


He also stated that prediction with no price drop in mind.

Big declines 🤭😁
Click to expand...


You'll see soon enough. It's already down this year compared to last year with 199$ SKU which is massive and the only reason switch didn't see declines last year. this year it won't have a 199$ lite model launching with pokemon around the corner. plus new hot consoles are coming out, they just need stock
 
policestationx

policestationx

Banned
siekro1983 said:
You'll see soon enough. It's already down this year compared to last year with 199$ SKU which is massive and the only reason switch didn't see declines last year. this year it won't have a 199$ lite model launching with pokemon around the corner. plus new hot consoles are coming out, they just need stock
Click to expand...
You need to take a look at this year January lineup vs last year too.

-Smash effect in 2019
-NSMBUD the potential 10 million seller was released in Jan 2019

VS

-TMS the niche seller 😁😂🤣
 
mejin

mejin

Member
Branthrax said:
Both new consoles will struggle again in November. The markets changing, not many people want to drop $500 on a system. Switch will win Q4 again while the PC and mobile market continue to rabidly expand.
Click to expand...

they will sell what they'll offer just like any launch lol
 
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