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NPD Sales Results for October 2014 [Up3: All of Nintendo's 3DS million sellers]

M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Ah, 385,000 for TEW? That sounds very good for a brand new IP in the horror genre!

...This also means Destiny really fell off this month. Yeah, bundles not included, but still a massive drop. I'm even wondering if it's under 300,000 units sold (bundles excluded, again).
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
allan-bh said:
Wedbush Report (Pachter) has NPD numbers and should cost far less (Or not).
Click to expand...

Pachter's report earlier this year was openly posted for download for a while. There was even a thread. It had years of historical NPD data in it. If people really wanted to get to the historical information it was freely available. Not sure if they meant to have that open for download or if it was an accident, however.

Saty said:
Full-game downloads are still only 20% max so it's really not big of a deal.
Click to expand...

This is growing quickly... day 1's can easily be 30%+ digital now, but I see what you're saying. I would argue, however, that full game downloads as well as DLC is a huge deal now.

Saty said:
But if i were to follow this line of thought, you can just as well argue that because more and more of the sales go untracked via digital, then the retail data isn't as important and thus they will be more lax about sharing it,
Click to expand...

On the other hand, quite often in declining markets, companies try to grasp on to control tighter and tighter, and try to milk more and more out of what's left. This makes declining industries more protective of their products and markets, not less.
 
P

Pennywise83

Banned
Mpl90 said:
I still need to comprehend why NPD hides gaming industry numbers so much, while other industries aren't so secretive. I don't know, I see this as a sign of "immaturity" of the whole industry, and I feel sorry to say that. This also helps VGsomethingsomethingz (you know what I'm talking about) to be even considered as "remotely reliable" by people who don't follow gaming news that much and that would just like to know how things are going. We've had recent articles from non-gaming outlets that used false VG...Z numbers, it keeps happening. IMHO; this damages NPD's image too: how can an entity being considered important and relevant about something from non-subscribers if it doesn't even share the necessary informations about what's going on in the tracked industry? Why is there such a need for secretiveness? I'm not even saying that they should tell us everything, just...the minimal requirements would be good already: hardware sales, top 10 sales, maybe individual, but even combined SKUs. This is the minimum, and yet we're completely oblivious about the minimum.
Click to expand...

1. it's a profit company, not an "entity".
2. why should NPD care about people that are not willing to pay to purchase its products? NPD is somewhat reliable and respected, and as long as has purchasers, it will keep its information as much secret as possible.
3. it's not true NPD is so special, and that the gaming industry is so behind the times; typically, you don't have much information about sales of products in other industries as well.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Pachter's report earlier this year was openly posted for download for a while. There was even a thread. It had years of historical NPD data in it. If people really wanted to get to the historical information it was freely available. Not sure if they meant to have that open for download or if it was an accident, however.
Click to expand...

Too bad I missed that.
 
O

Occam

Member
CosmicQueso said:
It's still not NPD's data to share even if it wanted to. It would need to get agreement from all the associated parties (retail, pubs, 1st parties), and there's really no incentive for those companies to agree to share that information publicly.
Click to expand...

Yes it is. It's NPD's market research, and of course they could share it if they wanted to. They are not getting insider information from any of the companies, they count sales at retailers. Maybe the platform holders wouldn't be happy about it, but there would be nothing they could do, other than no longer buy NPD's data. Which is why NPD doesn't wish to anger them.
 
A

Amentallica

Unconfirmed Member
8240774441_35f7cc4a00_m.jpg


Meant for a particular game.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Mpl90 said:
Ah, 385,000 for TEW? That sounds very good for a brand new IP in the horror genre!

...This also means Destiny really fell off this month. Yeah, bundles not included, but still a massive drop. I'm even wondering if it's under 300,000 units sold (bundles excluded, again).
Click to expand...

It's a big drop, but I think is normal.

Halo Reach for example sold 315k on second month, after 3.3m
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
It's still not NPD's data to share even if it wanted to. It would need to get agreement from all the associated parties (retail, pubs, 1st parties), and there's really no incentive for those companies to agree to share that information publicly.
Click to expand...

Do retailers have exclusive contracts with NPD such that the retailers will not divulge any sales information to any entity other than the NPD group?

If not, this makes no sense to me.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Occam said:
Yes it is. It's NPD's market research, and of course they could share it if they wanted to. They are no getting insider information from any of the companies, they count sales at retailers. Maybe the platform holders wouldn't be happy about it, but there would be nothing they could do.
Click to expand...

Who do you think they acquire the retail sales data from? And do those sources not have agreements with 1st parties and publishers? And do the 1st parties and publishers not have other agreements with NPD? Sorry, you're just incorrect.

prag16 said:
Do retailers have exclusive contracts with NPD.
Click to expand...

Other syndicated data firms have dabbled in games data, but effectively NPD is the exclusive.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Even if you could reliably track digital sales, the ubiquity of DLC packs and microtransactions make even those numbers increasingly meaningless.

If COD sells 10 million copies physical, 2 million copies digital, 6 million $15 map packs, 2 million $5 gun packs, and 12 million $1 camo hats, you're increasingly missing a bigger and bigger chunk of the pie.

In a game like Unity that is deliberately designed to prey on whales on top of the $60 game + $30 season pass crowd, how do you even keep pace? There are people who are going to spend $99+ on DLC for these games.
 
E

Exile20

Member
Hawk269 said:
That was a surprise. SO not being on there with only 4 days of sales is not shocking to me at all. The big shock was the EXCLUSIVE DRIVECLUB on PS4 that released early in October was not in the top 10. That is pretty shocking to me. The fact that there really is not a mainline racing game on the system and that it was exclusive and with the bazillion owners of PS4 that something like that should of cracked the top ten. That is the most shocking thing to me.

Granted there are the online issues that are not even remotely close to the stuff Halo is going through, what sucks is that the core game itself was pretty damn good. I earned all the stars in the game and never in 3 weeks got on-line. The game has great visuals, plays great and is just a lot of fun, but due to the issues it seems that PS4 owners said fuck it and did not even think about buying it.
Click to expand...
That is actually a good thing, Drive club launch was horrible . The same should happen to unity. Maybe halo also. Depends how fast they get their shit together.
 
S

sörine

Banned
Mpl90 said:
Ah, 385,000 for TEW? That sounds very good for a brand new IP in the horror genre!
Click to expand...
I don't know how it's been in Europe but in the US advertising is crazy for the game. Like I've seen nearly as many TEW ads as I did Destiny or Titianfall, and they're still running ads even.

Survival horror or not, I don't think sub 400k is really a great reflection on the sort if investment that must be being pumped into promoting the game.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Interfectum said:
So Bayonetta 2, Driveclub, Sunset Overdrive and Alien Isolation all tanked? Jeeze.
Click to expand...

I know this can sound ridiculous when looking at the forum, but most people would rather just buy annual sports titles, an entry in something they know they like (Borderlands, Smash), or keep playing what they already have (and maybe get some new DLC for it).

It's very hard to sell a new IP or a niche concept to people. How many people are going to go out and spend $60 on something they don't know they will like, or think they won't get a lot of value out of?

With Destiny or The Evil Within you could at least look at what the developer used to do (and they sold so much with games like Halo and Resident Evil that chances are you have played their games before, with marketing that made sure to point out what they made prior) and have some assurances of what you were getting into. Destiny even had a public beta to help cinch the deal.

I think Mordor looking like a mix of Batman and Assassin's Creed was a big help to it. People could see a brand they liked and gameplay they recognized and go "Yeah, maybe I'll get this, and these types of games usually have a ton of content to boot." I don't think the other games had this kind of appeal.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Occam said:
Why should they? And what kind of contracts would that be?
Click to expand...

Retailers have all kinds of retail marketing agreements with 1st parties and publishers. Comarketing deals are probably the most impactful (all those banners hanging from the ceiling cost pubs and 1st parties a lot of money) but there are also inventory flow considerations, temporary price reduction programs... retail makes a tremendous amount of money from partnering with pubs and 1st parties.

NPD makes its money selling the retail data to the pubs, 1st parties, investment community, etc.

No way any of these parties, NPD in particular, would want to jeopardize any of these relationships in order to publicly release information that would be used primarily in message board battles.
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
Other syndicated data firms have dabbled in games data, but effectively NPD is the exclusive.
Click to expand...

If retailers are willing to divulge info to entities other than NPD, then I go back to my previous comment: What I quoted from you in my last post doesn't make sense.

Kill3r7 said:
It's propriety data protected under trade secret.
Click to expand...

But CosmicQueso said retailer have provided data to other entities aside from NPD.
 
Green Yoshi

Green Yoshi

Member
Nirolak said:
Software:

  1. NBA 2K15 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)
  2. Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (3DS)
  3. The Evil Within (PS4, Xbox One, PS3, 360, PC)
  4. Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel (360, PS3, PC)
  5. Destiny (360, Xbox One, PS4, PS3)
  6. Skylanders: Trap Team (360, Wii, Wii U, PS3, Xbox One, PS4, 3DS, mobile)
    [*]FIFA 15 (PS4, 360, PS3, Xbox One, Wii, PS Vita, 3DS)
    [*]Madden NFL 15 (360, PS4, PS3, Xbox One)
  7. Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor (PS4, XBox One, PC)
  8. Minecraft (360, PS3, PS4)
Click to expand...

What happened with the USA and where is NBA Live 15? ;-)
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
prag16 said:
If retailers are willing to divulge info to entities other than NPD, then I go back to my previous comment: What I quoted from you in my last post doesn't make sense.
Click to expand...

See above. I hear what you're saying, and I can see why it may not make sense. Just trying to explain how it is.

prag16 said:
But CosmicQueso said retailer have provided data to other entities aside from NPD.
Click to expand...

Theoretically retail perhaps could give that information to other syndicated providers (I honestly don't know if there is exclusivity language in those contracts), but that does not happen now. Nielsen has dabbled in games data, but they've used more a panel model, where they have a sample of consumers, track their purchases, and then project off that sample. But now we're getting down into some of the nitty gritty detail I don't know specifics about.
 
F

FonkyByNature

Member
Happy The Evil Within charted !

But no Sunset Overdrive or/and Bayonetta 2 is sad. Both games are incredible. I've been playing SO the past few weeks and the game may not be perfect, but it's a great, everything goes, fun !

Hopefully sales between PS4 and Xbox One are closer because Sony needs a kick in the ass from MS to get things done. I think MS are doing well for bringing exclusives like SO, FH2 and Halo.

November will be epic though with all the games, price drop, black friday deals and all that... It'll be an entertaining GAF thread for sure !!!
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
prag16 said:
If retailers are willing to divulge info to entities other than NPD, then I go back to my previous comment: What I quoted from you in my last post doesn't make sense.



But CosmicQueso said retailer have provided data to other entities aside from NPD.
Click to expand...

Trade secret law allows for your to share info/brochures with other entities but you need to take steps to protect the proprietary data and this is done through NDAs and diligent enforcement of said NDAs.
 
J

Joni

Member
prag16 said:
Do retailers have exclusive contracts with NPD such that the retailers will not divulge any sales information to any entity other than the NPD group?

If not, this makes no sense to me.
Click to expand...
It is insider information. They don't want it widely shared.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Occam said:
[citation needed]

Why would I as a retailer not be allowed to disclose how much I buy/sell of article X?
Click to expand...

Sure, you could disclose that data. But then that $X million in comarketing dollars you were hoping to get out of that publisher's next big game? Yeah... that could all of a sudden fall out of the publisher's budget. #followthemoney
 
O

Occam

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Sure, you could disclose that data. But then that $X million in comarketing dollars you were hoping to get out of that publisher's next big game? Yeah... that could all of a sudden fall out of the publisher's budget. #followthemoney
Click to expand...

So it's no trade secret after all? I see.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Occam said:
[citation needed]

Why would I as a retailer not be allowed to disclose how much I buy/sell of article X?
Click to expand...

They certainly can but if they want to protect their sales data under trade secret law they need to be diligent in keeping it a secret. Ultimately, they want to sell such info because MONEY.
 
O

Occam

Member
Kill3r7 said:
They certainly can but if they want to protect their sales data under trade secret law they need to be diligent in keeping it a secret. Ultimately, they want to sell such info because MONEY.
Click to expand...

So it's no trade secret after all and they are not obligated to not disclose it? I see.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Hawk269 said:
That was a surprise. SO not being on there with only 4 days of sales is not shocking to me at all. The big shock was the EXCLUSIVE DRIVECLUB on PS4 that released early in October was not in the top 10. That is pretty shocking to me. The fact that there really is not a mainline racing game on the system and that it was exclusive and with the bazillion owners of PS4 that something like that should of cracked the top ten. That is the most shocking thing to me.

Granted there are the online issues that are not even remotely close to the stuff Halo is going through, what sucks is that the core game itself was pretty damn good. I earned all the stars in the game and never in 3 weeks got on-line. The game has great visuals, plays great and is just a lot of fun, but due to the issues it seems that PS4 owners said fuck it and did not even think about buying it.
Click to expand...

To put things in perspective.

Driveclub is a brand new IP, with a nice helping of negative buzz that's been following it (even if some fans were swearing by it and its gfx, the media was not really kind to it. Never was since its annoucement) + a year delay, AND a $20 off for DIGITAL purchase with PS+.
Oh, and of course its launch was a train wreck of epic proportions where online play is concerned.

Otoh in September: Forza Horizon 2 is part of an established franchise, nothing but praise (aside from the noted sillyness of racing super cars in corn fields) all along, no delay whatsoever, great reviews, smooth launch (I think?).

Does not chart.
Not even in the top 20 apparently.

And you are surprised at no Driveclub in the top 10 NPD??
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
foxbeldin said:
Just realised this : November NPD thread is gonna go nuts without the numbers :eek:
Click to expand...

Here's your top 10

November 2014 NPD said:
1. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)

2. Grand Theft Auto 5 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)

3. Super Smash Bros for Wii U (Wii U)

4. Halo: The Master Chief Collection (Xbox One)

5. Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, Xbox One, PC)

6. Pokémon Alpha Sapphire/Omega Ruby (3DS)

6. Far Cry 4 (PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One, PS3, PC)

7. Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4, Xbox One, PC)

8. NBA 2K 15 (PS4, 360, Xbox One, PS3

9. MineCraft (Xbox One, Xbox 360, PS4, PS3)

10. Destiny (Xbox 360, Xbox One, PS4, PS3)
Click to expand...

I'm wagering that Smash Bros. selling about 60% of the Wii U opening month will still be enough to put it over the Halo remakes. I also forget if NPD counts Pokémon as a single SKU. If not, it probably won't chart. I think GTA is actually going to hurt both Assassin's Creed and Far Cry, too much open world overlap.

Edit: Bah, forgot AC: Rogue. It will certainly beat out Destiny for the last spot.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Occam said:
So it's no trade secret after all? I see.
Click to expand...

I'm confused:

The precise language by which a trade secret is defined varies by jurisdiction (as do the particular types of information that are subject to trade secret protection). However, there are three factors that, although subject to differing interpretations, are common to all such definitions: a trade secret is information that:

Is not generally known to the public;
Confers some sort of economic benefit on its holder (where this benefit must derive specifically from its not being publicly known, not just from the value of the information itself);
Is the subject of reasonable efforts to maintain its secrecy.
Click to expand...

If not sharing the data helps get you money from publishers paying you for in store advertising (since they don't want the retail sales information affecting their stock price), then it fits the definition, since that money is a conferred economic benefit.
 
J

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
These threads every month now start to look the same. Perhaps there should be a separate thread for "npd/industry trade secrets" discussion and keep these more tuned to the actual sales numbers provided?

There's plenty to discuss as it is, mostly now people are just discussing the discussion haha.

At least if it stayed on topic and there were engaging conversation i'd probably take more of an interest in participating.

All the negativity and hounding and usage of words like "leaks" constantly doesn't really make this thread that inviting, personally
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Occam said:
So it's no trade secret after all and they are not obligated to not disclose it? I see.
Click to expand...

I think you are missing the point. A retailer can sell such info because there is a demand for it and they do so under an NDA and such information is often marked as CONFIDENTIAL. Now, if a retailer then chooses to discloses this data to the general public they lose all protection under trade secret law because the information is no longer confidential and they have breached their duty to keep it so.

Trade Secret: "Trade secrets exist in almost every business. Under the traditional, common-law definition, they consisted of virtually any information beneficial to the business, developed by the company through the expenditure of time and effort, unknown to others in competing businesses, and which gave an advantage to the company over such competition." http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...dline=Trade+Secrets+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

P.S. I freely admit that I should have used confidential instead of proprietary as copyright law plays no part in this. I'll go reprimand myself in the corner of my office now for being a bad attorney.
 
E

EGM1966

Member
Mpl90 said:
I still need to comprehend why NPD hides gaming industry numbers so much, while other industries aren't so secretive. I don't know, I see this as a sign of "immaturity" of the whole industry, and I feel sorry to say that. This also helps VGsomethingsomethingz (you know what I'm talking about) to be even considered as "remotely reliable" by people who don't follow gaming news that much and that would just like to know how things are going. We've had recent articles from non-gaming outlets that used false VG...Z numbers, it keeps happening. IMHO; this damages NPD's image too: how can an entity being considered important and relevant about something from non-subscribers if it doesn't even share the necessary informations about what's going on in the tracked industry? Why is there such a need for secretiveness? I'm not even saying that they should tell us everything, just...the minimal requirements would be good already: hardware sales, top 10 sales, maybe individual, but even combined SKUs. This is the minimum, and yet we're completely oblivious about the minimum.
Click to expand...
It's actually pretty simple.

Sales data for retail goods - including games - has a resell value hence there are companies like NPD engaged in the acquisition and sale of that data.

Sales date for media such as films has no resell value hence its openly available.

It's down to the specifics of their respective markets but that's the simple answer.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
IvorB said:
Well Driveclub is broken so it's no surprise people aren't buying it. And that's a good thing.
Click to expand...

Beta test was great and without any online glitches. Nobody expected that online at launch will be broken.

People still buy Driveclub. You forgot digital sales.
 
N

ninjablade

Banned
Nirolak said:
I know this can sound ridiculous when looking at the forum, but most people would rather just buy annual sports titles, an entry in something they know they like (Borderlands, Smash), or keep playing what they already have (and maybe get some new DLC for it).

It's very hard to sell a new IP or a niche concept to people. How many people are going to go out and spend $60 on something they don't know they will like, or think they won't get a lot of value out of?

With Destiny or The Evil Within you could at least look at what the developer used to do (and they sold so much with games like Halo and Resident Evil that chances are you have played their games before, with marketing that made sure to point out what they made prior) and have some assurances of what you were getting into. Destiny even had a public beta to help cinch the deal.

I think Mordor looking like a mix of Batman and Assassin's Creed was a big help to it. People could see a brand they liked and gameplay they recognized and go "Yeah, maybe I'll get this, and these types of games usually have a ton of content to boot." I don't think the other games had this kind of appeal.
Click to expand...


ss overdrive and bayonetta 2 don't surprise me, they just don't have the cool factor to get gamers interested. now driveclub and alien isolation are a big surprise, but when you think about it, racers aren't selling too great lately in the US, and the last alien game must have left a bad taste in consumers mouth.
 
P

Pennywise83

Banned
EGM1966 said:
It's actually pretty simple.

Sales data for retail goods - including games - has a resell value hence there are companies like NPD engaged in the acquisition and sale of that data.

Sales date for media such as films has no resell value hence its openly available.

It's down to the specifics of their respective markets but that's the simple answer.
Click to expand...

Can you expand on that? The topic is really interesting :) thanks.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Nirolak said:
I know this can sound ridiculous when looking at the forum, but most people would rather just buy annual sports titles, an entry in something they know they like (Borderlands, Smash), or keep playing what they already have (and maybe get some new DLC for it).

It's very hard to sell a new IP or a niche concept to people. How many people are going to go out and spend $60 on something they don't know they will like, or think they won't get a lot of value out of?

With Destiny or The Evil Within you could at least look at what the developer used to do (and they sold so much with games like Halo and Resident Evil that chances are you have played their games before, with marketing that made sure to point out what they made prior) and have some assurances of what you were getting into. Destiny even had a public beta to help cinch the deal.

I think Mordor looking like a mix of Batman and Assassin's Creed was a big help to it. People could see a brand they liked and gameplay they recognized and go "Yeah, maybe I'll get this, and these types of games usually have a ton of content to boot." I don't think the other games had this kind of appeal.
Click to expand...

This should be quoted every time someone says "PS4/XB1 have no games"/"what are people buying them for".
 
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