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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]

D

DBT85

Member
ThoseDeafMutes said:
I feel like there needs to be some perspective here. It would mean they couldn't plausibly win the generation, but the overall stats for XBO still paint it as a very healthy console on track to outsell the X360 worldwide. I don't think "fucked" would be a fair way to describe the situation they're in, except in the very narrow sense that their ability to come first place would be torpedoed. PS4 and XBO are both seemingly filling the void left by the WiiU's total failure to follow-up on the Wii's success.

I thought Sony GAF of all people should be used to explaining how the PSP wasn't an overall failure just because the DS was a mega-success.

( ͡°╭͜ʖ╮͡° )
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I don't have the numbers but how close are the 360 and Xbone at this stage. And how large an effect did having 1m units ready to ship in the US alone at launch have? Ie. Is the Xbone ahead of the 360 because of that huge first weekend. Was the 360 a better performer on a month by month basis?
 
T

teiresias

Member
If the 7k-10k differential is true that's really NOT what MS needs to see given the price differential between the bundles this month.
 
RowdyReverb

RowdyReverb

Member
Amir0x said:
Consider:



The primary objective is of course to profit, but it's not like the Xbox brand has historically been particularly profitable. It's why the Xbox division is constantly under such scrutiny in the internal debates going on at Microsoft between divisions.

So, the question is:

Were the number of overall sales Xbox One had for November sufficiently large enough to offset the profit margin decrease required to sell the system at the price it was at most retailers?

We know they are not going to be very happy with the solidification of their second place status for the rest of the generation. But whether that disappointment can be muted somewhat by at least a decent profit margin is yet to be seen.

Then the implications for the future are clear:

1. PS4 is almost certain to win December NPD now.
2. Xbox One is devalued at market in consumer eyes; hard to rise price again and expect to do well.
3. Means over the longer term they're going to have to sell significantly more units month-over-month to make the XBO venture very profitable when you factor in entire cost of R&D and to-market considerations.
4. Means almost certainly PS4 is going to continue to dominate month after month going forward, with this blip being a rare exception (and just barely, you're not closing any gaps at this rate).
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As far as will the hit be worth it, we won't know for years. Microsoft has adopted loss leader strategies last gen that took a long time to pan out. If the goal was to increase user base by a certain amount by the end of 2014, they may very well have achieved it by making the price cut and tolerated the cost.

On the point about devaluing, the XB1 was already devalued in some consumers' eyes based on the bad launch and the weaker hardware. The price is just more reflective of that now. Perhaps that's the price point they need to keep at in relation to the PS4 from here on out to stay competitive.

Lastly, I don't follow the logic for PS4 being a guaranteed leader for December. The XB1 price cut lasts through January, and no more new games are coming out until next year. Why shouldn't next month be another near-tie?
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
ThoseDeafMutes said:
I'm open to correction, definitely. Could you explain in more detail though?

I'm expecting Niro or someone to lay some cold facts on me in a second since people are reacting like that to the idea.
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The US and UK were the primary markets for the 360. The US accounts for over 40M for the system, the UK 8M, resulting from being the market leading HD console last gen. At current rate in the US at least, that number seems out of reach.

So while it's possible for it to match the 360 in an anything's possible way, given a similar timeframe, I don't see it as likely right now.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
I also want to note we should be careful about just accepting the 7-10k number at face value. Aqua and creamsugar haven't commented to my knowledge, and cboat has been tricked by sources before.

We could be talking about a much bigger gap for all we know quite yet.
 
autoduelist

autoduelist

Member
Verendus said:
So the Age of One earns its second victory, and now we're getting spin that it's not a real victory?

For shame.
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It's not so much spin as the recognition that when we're talking a million sales, 10k is a drop in the bucket. Reporting mistakes or even post-month returns could easily change the victor... it's essentially a 'tie', and if it were politics a recount would be likely if not certain. So sure, it's a victory, but given the sales and bundles and such, as others have noted, it's a Pyrrhic victory at best.
 
R

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Amir0x said:
I also want to note we should be careful about just accepting the 7-10k number at face value. Aqua and creamsugar haven't commented to my knowledge, and cboat has been tricked by sources before.

We could be talking about a much bigger gap for all we know quite yet.
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Aqua self banned for a couple of months IIRC
 
Windom Earle

Windom Earle

Member
Do you guys have any clue how expensive it is to make a game like Dragon Age? I think the franchise is done for. And EA was nuts to put it up against GTA. Looking forward to get it for cheap now. :/
 
V

vypek

Member
Anth0ny said:
moralvictoryn9cbk.gif
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Lol. This is pretty good
 
D

Dragonborn

Member
RoboPlato said:
My biggest question from this is, if the 7-10k figure is true, how is MS going to gain any momentum in the first half of 2015? They had multiple exclusives and major comarketing deals in October and November along with some extremely aggressive pricing. Before Fall, their 2015 is looking pretty barren.
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They aren't.
 
N

Noobcraft

Member
Amir0x said:
I also want to note we should be careful about just accepting the 7-10k number at face value. Aqua and creamsugar haven't commented to my knowledge, and cboat has been tricked by sources before.

We could be talking about a much bigger gap for all we know quite yet.
Click to expand...
720P Titanfall and all that.
 
I

IcyBlueStrawberry

Member
Disappointed that DA:I and LBP didn't have stronger debuts. They seem like the kind of games that would typically have a strong first half the following year, but with so much coming within the next 6 months it's hard to imagine either game having real legs.
 
E

Ethelwulf

Member
Amir0x said:
I also want to note we should be careful about just accepting the 7-10k number at face value. Aqua and creamsugar haven't commented to my knowledge, and cboat has been tricked by sources before.

We could be talking about a much bigger gap for all we know quite yet.
Click to expand...

That would make sense as well. If true though, I really don't know what is happening. The gaming industry is so unpredictable.
 
D

Deadly Joker

Member
bishoptl said:
Word from connected people is that the first two weeks of November was what won it for Xbone. PS4 nearly caught up thanks to BF and GTA bundles. Exciting stuff!
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The PS4 must have owned BF for this to happen. All those pictures posted here showing the contrary are hilarious in retrospect.
 
O

orochi91

Member
Amir0x said:
I also want to note we should be careful about just accepting the 7-10k number at face value. Aqua and creamsugar haven't commented to my knowledge, and cboat has been tricked by sources before.

We could be talking about a much bigger gap for all we know quite yet.
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She said the thread was getting scary and bailed after CBOAT posted lol

She didn't even correct him.
 
T

TomShoe

Banned
Damn, man. I can't keep up with Orochi, he's posting too fast. That and I have exams to study for.

Amir0x said:
I also want to note we should be careful about just accepting the 7-10k number at face value. Aqua and creamsugar haven't commented to my knowledge, and cboat has been tricked by sources before.

We could be talking about a much bigger gap for all we know quite yet.
Click to expand...

You just posted a 5 paragraph essay on why the Xbox One was doomed.
 
Y

yoplay

Member
Amir0x said:
I think we need to get hard numbers for November NPD to be able to properly obtain this context.

If the trajectory hasn't significantly shifted year over year, it's likely XBO will be a 45-50 million selling console. Pending also how long MS and Sony plan to stretch out this generation relative to PS360 gen.
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Yeap. Imma change my 60+ figures to 40+. I forget that MS can easily abandon early and start a new console in year 5.
 
J

JNA

Banned
7k-10k difference? Might as well be a tie lol.

No wonder MS are still quiet about it. All those sales, discounts, MCC, bundles, etc. All that for only 7k-10k win.

December Sony must be killing again with that 20th bundle as well as others.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
RowdyReverb said:
As far as will the hit be worth it, we won't know for years. Microsoft has adopted loss leader strategies last gen that took a long time to pan out. If the goal was to increase user base by a certain amount by the end of 2014, they may very well have achieved it by making the price cut and tolerated the cost.

On the point about devaluing, the XB1 was already devalued in some consumers' eyes based on the bad launch and the weaker hardware. The price is just more reflective of that now. Perhaps that's the price point they need to keep at in relation to the PS4 from here on out to stay competitive.

Lastly, I don't follow the logic for PS4 being a guaranteed leader for December. The XB1 price cut lasts through January, and no more new games are coming out until next year. Why shouldn't next month be another near-tie?
Click to expand...

Systems get a boost in the first few weeks after a price cut goes into effect, but historically that initial boost fades back into a more steady week-over-week number afterwards. In other words, since there is no "price shock" week in December - XBO has been at these prices now for some time - they won't have that initial boost to barely put them over PS4.

If these numbers are true, of course, which I'm still waiting on one of our NPD insiders to know for sure.
 
S

Scully Scully Scoo

Member
Plinko said:
At this point they're going to stand pat until the next console.
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well at least the whole 'just wait till mario kart/smash release' argument has been destroyed, yes software sells consoles but wiiu is an abomination, they need to rethink their strategy or limp to the finish line. as x1/ps4 get cheaper in a year or two and the libraries grow wiiu sales will suffer even more
 
V

vin-buc

Member
DidntKnowJack said:
What does Sony say in a situation like this?

Well, we didn't have the top selling hardware this month, but we still did pretty good!

Of course they would never say that verbatim, but i imagine that would essentially be their message...?
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Sony could affirm the 1 million lead in the US and the WW leader by X million consoles.

They should even consider leaking the numbers via secondary sources.

I would like to see this.
 
U

Unknown One

Member
e-gamer said:
I don't think so.

Sony also came up with underpriced bundles.

To be honest, they also matched the xbone price all over europe.
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I disagree, the bundle MS given consumers were massive. Some were 70 dollars off with 2 games. That's one hell of a steal. Sony's were 400 dollars with 2 games.

The previous two months Sony manage a pretty sizable gap in sales. 100k-200k difference does not even erase that gap made in the previous months.
 
H

hydrophilic attack

Member
Verendus said:
Let me tell you this story.

Once upon a time, in another life where I wasn't the leader of Xbox, I was a high school gym teacher. And then there was this competition between my class and a class from another high school. I put forward my star student who was able to do the most amount of reps on a bench press. In the end, the opponent did 45 reps, before he exhausted himself. My student had only ever maxed out at 40 in the past.

But that day, I told little Jimmy that he's doing to do 46. Because 46 means he's going to win. And that's all that matters. Little Jimmy didn't have to 60 reps or 90 reps, he just had to do 46 reps.

And that's what he did. Little Jimmy went home with the gold that day.

Fact is, a win is a win. It may have taken everything, every ounce of energy, every drop of sweat, every drop of blood that the Xbox One has, but it did it. At least it wasn't like The Rock at Wrestlemania 17. He just gave up after 20 chair shots.
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Yes, but in pushing himself so hard, Little Jimmy seriously injured himself, and on doctor's orders had to stay out of the gym for the next 6 months. Now, was it worth it?
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Verendus said:
Let me tell you this story.

Once upon a time, in another life where I wasn't the leader of Xbox, I was a high school gym teacher. And then there was this competition between my class and a class from another high school. I put forward my star student who was able to do the most amount of reps on a bench press. In the end, the opponent did 45 reps, before he exhausted himself. My student had only ever maxed out at 40 in the past.

But that day, I told little Jimmy that he's doing to do 46. Because 46 means he's going to win. And that's all that matters. Little Jimmy didn't have to 60 reps or 90 reps, he just had to do 46 reps.

And that's what he did. Little Jimmy went home with the gold that day.

Fact is, a win is a win. It may have taken everything, every ounce of energy, every drop of sweat, every drop of blood that the Xbox One has, but it did it. At least it wasn't like The Rock at Wrestlemania 17. He just gave up after 20 chair shots.
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Your posts in this thread are slaying me.
 
S

SneakySneaks

Member
Amir0x said:
It's bad man.

Here's how.

1. In order to achieve this win, Microsoft had to deeply devalue the product they had been offering all year for higher prices. Consumers jumped in - with a big jump early in November - but according to insiders, Sony may have even won Black Friday and it was those early two weeks that allowed Microsoft to keep the overall win.

2. So, due to this fact, what happens? Will Microsoft have to keep the price at $349? I don't see any viable alternative if they want to stay even remotely competitive now. If they go up to $399, consumers are going to wait it out knowing Microsoft will take drastic price cutting measures if they feel threatened from a marketshare point-of-view. So they'd just as likely wait it out. Consider Xbox division is already under pressure to start making a profit and being a viable pillar, many interal debates between services & devices and the other divisions. In order to just barely win, they had to cut in deep to their profit margin.

3. This means that once the glow of the price change is over, the trajectory indicates it's very likely now PS4 is just going to go back to winning every month. This is the last thing Microsoft wanted. Now they've devalued their platform, their profit margins are diminished, and PS4 is still the marketleader getting their good PR. Microsoft gained almost nothing in the exchange, except perhaps to tell third parties planning to publish games in the West that it's still important to make ports for XBO and engage in marketing deals with MS for some exclusivity and other mutually beneficial deals.

4. With all the game announcements from Sony in December (in fact so many that PS4 is dominating December discussion, in a crucial period of the time when families come together and thus quickly spread their opinions on personal events, TV shows, games, etc), it's not likely Microsoft is going to have room to breathe to make a second month upset. Microsoft Store is selling their system at an astonishing $349 AC Bundle with two free games on top of it, but it will not be enough with numbers that look like this even for November NPD.


None of this means XBO is selling poorly, it probably did quite well if it's that close and edged out PS4. But it does now mean the future is clear: Sony has this generation in the bag in terms of system sales, including in US and UK, and that Microsoft is going to have a very hard fight to even keep their unit sales competitive in their only two remaining viable territories.
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This is dead fucking on. The value of the Xone is now 350 (or even 329) with games. Who's going to buy it when it goes back up, if it does go back up. The value of the console itself (sans games) is now perceived as below 300. I don't know how much that nets MS when accounting for the retail share of the sale, but it can't be very good. The might try and make money on software ala OGBox but with the division already billions in the red I don't see it.
 
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