-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Valkyria of the Blue Revolution trademarked by Sega
- Thread starter SolidSnakex
- Start date
CertifiedFP
Member
1. Eh I have a PS4 but it's been collecting dust since I for done with Bloodborne.
2. SoA/SoE =/= SoJ. SoE's hands are tied if SoJ accepts a moneyhats. SoJ is infamously shortsighted (See: VC2), and as far as In concerned, Satomi's "winning back the fans" speech has as much substance to it as Microsoft's talk of their support of PC gaming. He's got nothing to show yet beyond another annual Yakuza game. Well, two.
3. Stories like Souls being niche on PlayStation and going mainstream as a multiplat - Or in this case, Valkyria Chronicles flopping on PlayStation and finally becoming profitable on PC are exactly the kinds of things that gets any console holder that intends to maintain their brand to mobilize. Look at it this way - Those 500k sales of VC on Steam are 500k people who could be enticed to buy a PS4 if it's required to play any future installments. I know I'd try and capitalize on that if I was an executive assigned to Sony's PlayStation division.
4. If we're going to cite Street Fighter V, don't forget it's Capcom. I can't remember a single time in history they've signed a 100%+permanent exclusivity deal. Capcom likely would not have signed a deal with Sony on SFV without some exit clause or catch like it having a PC version to hedge that bet. Sony still gains from that, since they stand to flip SF4's 360 players over to PS4 for SFV. What does Sony gain in signing a PS4+PC deal for a future VC game? Nothing, because VC has only ever been on PS and PC anyway.
Tl;Dr:
500k sales is great for VC IMO, buuuut there's one issue. If I were a Sega exec, 500k isn't a number I'd commission an AAA game to. Remastering VC2 and 3 would definitely be on the table, yes... But I'd need a little grease in my palm to be motivated to make a whole new game to the tune of 500k sales.
VC isn't AAA, nor is it the type of game a platform holder would outright pay for exclusivity for.
the whole sega west vs sega east shit doesn't work either. earnings figures go through sega japan, and they're not ignorant to the fact that pc is a core part of their business now.
as for sony, it would be beneficial to them to spread the risk if they are actually involved in a new console valkyria game.
CertifiedFP
Member
VC *was* AAA. I'd easily say that VC1 was one of the PS3's first (And, considering how short that list was, technically among the last as well) major AAA JRPGs. It's just that VC2 being F-Tier brought the series' average down.
As for not being the type of game a platform holder would try to get exclusivity for - Funny thing, four years ago I thought the exact same about Sonic, especially considering how tainted that brand became in the past decade. Though I suppose that's going to be the definition of Moot Point in about eight days.
TC McQueen
Member
NOPE. I don't doubt that some might get a PS4 for a new VC game, but even Sony has said that the only reason they're cool with Street Fighter V being on PC is because they know those markets don't overlap too much. This is especially true for a game that arguably fits the PC market way more than the console/handheld/mobile one - see the disproportionate success of XCOM:EU on PC and its utter failure on console.
That said, the fact that Sega only has 500K sales of the VC port is probably more of an artifact of the port coming 6 years after the game's initial release and had near zero marketing besides Twitter/game media buzz because the announcement came out of nowhere.
uh, VC came out 7 years ago, didn't do all that well, and was basically left to die on portables. any revival will not be AAA, and imo, i would argue the original doesn't fit the AAA description either, even at the time it came out. it's a mid-tier game in a semi-niche genre.
as for sonic, you mean the wii u deal? that's more a marriage of convenience imo. sonic games sold well on nintendo hardware, and nintendo were hungry for games on their systems. i don't see a platform holder paying for valkyria.
I recall a rumor supposedly from one of the developers was that VC cost Sega 11 million dollars to make. Can't find the source, but I dug up some commentary about how it appears to be in line with what PS3 games cost to make. So it was probably AAA in 2007 when it was made, maybe not so much any more.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=339919&page=42
I'll start with a brief history of Sega over the course of the last generation and the path it's lead us to, which is not entirely clear yet, but will be soon.
So, over the course of the last generation, Sega followed a pretty standard path for a Japanese publisher. Their line-up consisted of the following:
1.) A mix of "AAA" games from both internal/external Japanese studios and independent Western studios. By ~2011, basically all of these product lines had failed and they essentially exited this business. I put "AAA" in quotation marks because the reason their games were failing was that they weren't actually living up to the expectations, budget, and/or tastes that defined actual AAA game production. Note, this isn't a condemnation of quality, since AAA is a production category.
2.) They also made a bunch of mid-tier Japanese games on both consoles and handhelds. Some of these succeeded, but many of them failed or faded. They ended up discontinuing most of this production line with few exceptions such as Yakuza and Miku. If we go to today, even the popularity of these are starting to fade.
3.) They made a selection of PC games that eventually became titles that primarily had high margin digital downloadable sales. These came from some early generation acquisitions they made such as Creative Assembly (Total War) and Sports Interactive (Football Manager). These actually significantly succeeded, and caused them to eventually make acquisitions like Relic (Dawn of War/Company of Heroes). Do note however that Creative Assemblies expanded efforts (console games like Viking, Alien, and Stormrise) didn't meet expectations and eventually saw the teams that handled them either shuttered or start working on Halo Wars 2 for Microsoft to absolve Sega of the risk.
4.) They made a whole bunch of Japanese mobile games. First this was done primarily on feature phones, which in Japan generally means they were developed through DeNA/Mobage or GREE. These were profitable, and didn't take Sega resources for the most part. However, with the switch to smartphones, feature phone games (including their ports to smartphones) largely fell apart, which also caused most Japanese publishers to start publishing their games themselves. Over time, Sega found tremendous success here, overwhelmingly through new IPs with very high production values for the platform, but a strong sense of mobile tastes and monetization as well. As this division grew, it started taking many of the staff from the failing Japanese console, handheld, and arcade businesses, who continued to bring their game taste and design sense with them. If we look at a hit game like Hortensia Saga, it has quite a bit of voice acting, lots of cutscenes, high quality art, an anime opening, and a combat system that's more in-depth than you'd expect out of most mobile games. If it was a upper-mid-tier PSP game, no one would blink an eye (sans some of the mobile monetization systems). They do have some mobile games based on their existing IPs, but it's rarer. Sega also made a few PC oriented f2p service games, with the most notable being Phantasy Star Online 2, a game that succeeds on par to their high end mobile hits. By comparison, Phantasy Star on handhelds has completely faded.
5.) They made Western mobile games as well. These were generally less successful, but it's something they're continuing to invest in through partnerships and acquisitions given their success in Japan and the important of mobile to the company. Sonic Dash is an interesting case, but I'll cover that in a moment in item 6.
6.) Sonic is an IP that deserves its own item. It's a brand that was once the definition of the company (and, despite how it has faded, is in many ways still their mascot). Sonic had some moderate success earlier last generation selling a couple of million copies a game, and strong success with the Mario & Sonic at the Olympics series selling 5+ million copies an entry (the series since collapsed to 1/10th that or worse this generation). It's also a series they allowed to be developed both internally in Japan and at studios in the West. The quality of both approaches on dedicated devices ultimately resulted in failure, though Sonic Colors and Sonic Generations from Japan and Sonic Racing (both entries) from the West were stand outs before its final collapse. However, on mobile, there was a very interesting stand out in terms of Sega Hardlight's Sonic Dash. While it never made all that much money - but enough to be profitable - it reached a huge and well engaged audience totalling 150 million unique downloads. This was a huge win for what the Sonic brand has now become: a multimedia franchise. The Sonic Boom cartoon (made in France) is very successful, and mobile Sonic games help keep the series notably popular among children, so they pay out huge dividends even if they don't rake in $75+ million a year like some of Sega's mobile hits.
7.) In addition to the previously mentioned recent strategic acquisitions (Relic for their successful PC business following up previous successful acquisitions like Creative Assembly and Sports Interactive, and a variety of companies like Demiurge and Three Rings Design for mobile development), Sega purchased Atlus in Japan. The idea behind this acquisition was that it fit three of their businesses quite well. The first was that it would help fill in their dying Japanese dedicated device business with a company that was actually on the up-and-up despite the dire situation of the Japanese dedicated device industry. The second was that Sega had a growing multimedia business and Atlus' brands were a great fit for that. The third was that they would eventually be able to leverage Atlus' IPs in mobile and pachinko games as well, especially as the Japanese audience got older and were less likely to be playing dedicated device titles (unlike the West, it's not uncommon for teenage Japanese gamers to end up as mobile-only gamers once they get a very time consuming job, and as they get into middle age and older, become big pachinko parlor fans. Obviously this doesn't apply to everyone, but for now it's something Japanese publishers certainly consider).
Now, the big mix up here is that in 2015, the CEO of Sega Sammy assigned his grandson as the CEO of Sega Games. The new CEO of Sega Games noticed that the rigorous adherence to schedule for dedicated device games, done to help control costs and increased when Sega's products were starting to fail, was notably negatively impacting quality, which was causing Sega's remaining series to start dying. Realizing this was going to be the end of their dedicated device division, he decided to implement a new quality first strategy that would let games sit in development for notably longer in a bid to increase quality. However, since this just started at the start of 2015 - increasing even further on the extra breathing room a couple of series were starting to get - we won't see if this actually is helping until 2016 when the first games under this strategy start coming out. He said he ultimately wants to model Sega Games after Atlus, a notably successful dedicated device game division, whose flagship game Persona 5 has already been given 2.5 years of extra development time. Miku is getting a significantly expanded campaign mode and story cutscenes. Total Warhammer was delayed out of 2015 and even the fiscal year to April 28th, 2016. Yakuza 6 was noted as one of the flagships of this new development model and isn't releasing until Fall 2016. Relic's first game made entirely under Sega, Dawn of War 3, has been given a very long time already before it has even unveiled. And, perhaps most poignantly, Sega has been delaying Sonic Boom's second 3DS game in an effort to try and make a high quality dedicated device game in a series that could definitely use one.
Will any of this meaningfully pan out? It's hard to say, but we'll find out as these games release one after the other.
Now, that brings us back to Valkyria. Could this be a mobile or PC f2p game? Sure, there are several of those types of games that use Sega's IPs. However, Sega does often focus on New IPs for these types of releases. There are two notably exceptions in the form of Puyo Puyo Quest and Phantasy Star Online 2, which are both very successful. The game could also certainly be part of their renewed dedicated device game interest. Valkyria Chronicles on PC sold vastly above expectations, and the Valkyria staff working on The World's End Eclipse and Dengeki Bunko Fighting Climax's expansion are both about to release their products, so while I don't expect either of those teams to get smaller, they might have a staff lead staff switch-up/senior staff promotions so the old Valkyria staff can work on a new entry in that series.
However, regardless of whether it's a service game or a dedicated device title - assuming this is actually a Valkyria Chronicles title - I expect it to be a high grade effort from the division that makes it, as that's central to Sega's current business strategy across the company.
Well if there was a history of JRPG's doing that on Xbox, or with their games being cancelled or moved elsewhere that would work. Those that are saying this stuff are only doing so because of their experiences with Japanese companies doing similar with franchises they like over the last half a decade.
Note I'm not agreeing or justifying the behavior. Just saying where those people might be coming from and that they aren't doing it simply for the sake of hating on mobile. Well not all of them anyway.
Fix That For You.
Google search says it just came out this month.
KimonoNoNo
Member
Thanks Nirolak awesome breakdown.
Hopefully Sega can turn it around because it'll be incredibly sad if Sega ends up another Konami.
Hopefully Sega can turn it around because it'll be incredibly sad if Sega ends up another Konami.
The situation between Sega and Konami is pretty different.
Konami is a company that exited gaming in almost every way except for sports gaming on phones and dedicated devices, with a few more casual and/or family friendly titles like Bomberman sprinkled in.
Sega is a company that makes successful PC titles (both premium and f2p), has a successful Japanese dedicated device division in the form of Atlus, and a Japanese mobile division that makes games that resemble the types of games GAF posters like much more than Konami's line-up. Even if their old dedicated device Japanese development arm blew up, they'd still be significantly more involved in gaming than Konami.
That said, the Japanese arm, being the oldest part of the company, is continually given the most leeway in terms of sticking around amid poor performances, so I don't expect them to go away anytime soon even if they continue to perform poorly. There's a reason the CEO put his grandson in charge of the division. Further reductions are conceptually feasible though.
Thanks Nirolak for the post. Especially for refreshing my memory about the CEO's comments about game quality and how it changes things today. Sega does invest a lot into the visual quality of these games, but from the consumer side, combining a F2P strategy with the current Valkyria model can really only end in bad news, so we can only hope for the improbable best.
However, we wouldn't happen to have a complete profitability breakdown from Sega, do we?
Finding information in English that's not from really awful Forbes Contributors or biased fan sites or extremely poorly written game blogs is really rough. I only have articles that mention slashing employee numbers over the years, the recent move of Sega America to Los Angeles and some mobile information regarding high consistent profits.
However, we wouldn't happen to have a complete profitability breakdown from Sega, do we?
Finding information in English that's not from really awful Forbes Contributors or biased fan sites or extremely poorly written game blogs is really rough. I only have articles that mention slashing employee numbers over the years, the recent move of Sega America to Los Angeles and some mobile information regarding high consistent profits.
BRSxIgnition
Member
Thank you very much for this write-up. I sincerely hope that them basing their production on Atlus' methods will pay off.
Imagine....
- The original Valkyria Chronicles team.
- A focus on quality rather than scheduling.
- Longer production time.
- More powerful hardware. (PS4, PC)
Thanks for the write up - really illustrates the path that Sega has been through - though the Sega of Japan reminder is portent considering past performances. Hopefully with the recent acquisitions and renewed focus they can do well.
Excellent write up there Nirolak.
If by you mean Pachinko they won't, Sammy already does that. However their recent moves clearly paint they do intended to stay in the industry proper, however if people are going to be happy with the way their monetize the games is another matter.
Consumer division saw operating profits of 2 billion yen in 2014 and 4 billion in 2015. From how well their mobile division is doing I'd imagine it's going to be another profitable year and if it is it'd be the first time SEGA (the consumer division not the group ) has had three consecutive years of profits.
If by you mean Pachinko they won't, Sammy already does that. However their recent moves clearly paint they do intended to stay in the industry proper, however if people are going to be happy with the way their monetize the games is another matter.
Consumer division saw operating profits of 2 billion yen in 2014 and 4 billion in 2015. From how well their mobile division is doing I'd imagine it's going to be another profitable year and if it is it'd be the first time SEGA (the consumer division not the group ) has had three consecutive years of profits.
great post
also, how old is the new CEO again?
He's 37 I believe, definitely late 30s though.
To add to this, since Sega is releasing next to no packaged games this fiscal year, this is a pretty accurate reflection of their projections and how they break down between mobile and non-mobile (PSO2, Football Manager) titles.
Note that the right side of the chart should say "FY2016 (Forecast)".
CertifiedFP
Member
I'm putting down my bet for real on a PGW reveal.
Apparently VC1 on Steam just got unblocked from sale in some parts of Asia for no discernible reason today.
Fetch me my tinfoil hat!
Apparently VC1 on Steam just got unblocked from sale in some parts of Asia for no discernible reason today.
Fetch me my tinfoil hat!
BRSxIgnition
Member
Are you betting on a full console game/reboot, or something less exciting?
Also: Get me one too, that definitely sounds intriguing.
charlequin
Banned
Neither of these types of posting contributes positively to the discussion and I would strongly advise posters to think very, very carefully before doing either one.
These posts are often posted from a position of ignorance, as Nirolak's excellent writeup here should indicate -- people remember that they saw Konami do something they don't like, and so decide to post ill-founded claims about Sega doing the same thing, even when the two companies' situations and market strategies are nothing alike.
If people want to be concerned about a specific company doing something that's in keeping with their own specific history that's one thing (and you're never gonna see me coming into a thread about Konami news telling people to give them more credit) but this type of generalization is another thing altogether.
CertifiedFP
Member
Eh, well, there's the rest of PGW to get through, or maybe PSX.
Coincidentally, it would seem that VC1 is going to be in the Humble Monthly Bundle... Auspicious timing...
Coincidentally, it would seem that VC1 is going to be in the Humble Monthly Bundle... Auspicious timing...