• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results For October 2016

L

Little Mons†er

Banned
Sony has been there, done that in terms of leading the US. Sony are outselling the competition so they can afford to do some experimenting with their products at this moment in time.

It's not their fault the rest fell behind. Talent stays winning. But the Switch will switch things around obviously.

P5L48zm.gif
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Obliterator said:
Yeah the PS4s global dominance has kind of glossed over the fact that statistically speaking NA us actually pretty close. For a console in 2nd place the Xbone is actually doing very very well in NA.
Click to expand...
I mean, the US is the Xbox's strongest territory. It isn't really surprising or noteworthy. Especially coming off of what occurred last gen.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
I appreciate the closed captioning on the dancing gif. It does help set the mood, doesn't it.

DriftingSpirit said:
I mean, the US is the Xbox's strongest territory. It isn't really surprising or noteworthy. Especially coming off of what occurred last gen.
Click to expand...

Okay, I'll bite.

So, if Xbox outselling PS4 in October is not noteworthy, what is noteworthy this month?

Does that mean months where PS4 outsells Xbox are not noteworthy as well given PS4's global lead? I'd assume so?

If neither is noteworthy, what is everyone going back and forth about?

BTW, I tend to agree that month to month changes in a hundred thousand units one way or another isn't important. There are far more interesting things going on with digital shares, the toys to life category imploding, the impact of early access titles, but we never get into that here.

So, if HW sales and rankings aren't noteworthy, what do you think is?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Liabe Brave said:
I'd argue that comparing consoles with different ages can skew the results even more. Time on market affects library size, game quality, multiplayer concurrence, game and console costs, and so on. These intrinsic factors surely affect sales strongly. If the choice is between normalizing those factors or normalizing the competitive pressure level of the leader, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the latter has more analytical significance.
Click to expand...

When comparing consoles, I don't think you can compare two different years when talking about market leader performance. For the 6th gen, 2003 is the third year for the PS2, so you should compare the market at the time, not isolating a separate year because a console launched at a different time. For Xbox, 2004 was the best year for the console because of the price drop to $149. That's a completely different situation to what the market was like in 2003, and the topic is about how a market leader normally performs. If you just compare each consoles third year, then sure, but when talking about market leader performance you should compare consoles from the same year.

DriftingSpirit said:
I was talking about WW. I am hoping the bold is referring to the US...

Oh, and would it be incorrect to say the US has never been a "big" territory for PS? Like, it has obviously performed well but hasn't the bulk of support traditionally come from outside of US? I don't know the data so I would just like to know.
Click to expand...

That entire post was about the US.

Also the US is the biggest single country market in the world and is big for PS. PS has such a large presence in EMEA and Asia that overall market share for the US is closer to 30% of total PS sales, but right now it's ~34% with the PS4.

PS1 sold 30.18m in the US with the WW total being 102.49m
PS2 sold 46.4m in the US with WW total being 155m-160m
PS3 sold +26.7m in the US with WW total being ~88m.

CosmicQueso said:
BTW, I tend to agree that month to month changes in a hundred thousand units one way or another isn't important. There are far more interesting things going on with digital shares, the toys to life category imploding, the impact of early access titles, but we never get into that here.
Click to expand...

Kind of hard to talk about digital when the only info we get is some once a year update about digital averages now hitting X% and we aren't shown or told what games are leading in digital share and what is lagging so we are left with months of just assuming games have Y% digital sales until told otherwise. Hardware numbers are the only thing we get in detail and that is because of leaks.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
CosmicQueso said:
So, if Xbox outselling PS4 in October is not noteworthy, what is noteworthy this month?
Click to expand...
I would say software sales and particularly high or low hardware sales.

I was more speaking broadly though. I just feel the Xbox performing well in what is by far its strongest territory is nothing out of the ordinary. Of course it is.

Does that mean months where PS4 outsells Xbox are not noteworthy as well given PS4's global lead? I'd assume so?
Click to expand...
Absolutely.

The months from January to May (was this when the Xbox surge happened?) were bland. The PS4 has already established itself as the leader so it wasn't noteworthy to see it take those months. Especially coming off of what happened during the holidays of 2015.

If neither is noteworthy, what is everyone going back and forth about?
Click to expand...
Well, from my point of view, I see people taking this US situation and running with it. It is being discussed because it somehow shows how "poorly" the PS4 is doing right now.

I participated in hopes of cooling some of that discussion. I just think MS is improving from where they were before and Sony is just focusing on their internal goals over "We must dominate the Xbox!" this holiday and that is all fine. It isn't a sign of a huge comeback and it isn't a sign of a huge misstep (see: holidays 2014). We already know MS and Sony are going to see good to great sales this holiday in US. This isn't anything noteworthy.

Now, let's say holiday sales aren't all that good or even borderline okay or, dare I say, bad! Then that'll be something to discuss. Well, from my point of view anyway. As I said above, I'm not trying to be the ruler of what is and isn't noteworthy.

BTW, I tend to agree that month to month changes in a hundred thousand units one way or another isn't important. There are far more interesting things going on with digital shares, the toys to life category imploding, the impact of early access titles, but we never get into that here.
Click to expand...
Right, I see what you're saying. I just feel taking these month to month changes and coming to broad conclusions is pointless. We've been down this road three times now since the consoles launched (talking about holiday sales) so we should understand how this ebb and flow works but alas.

Digital share going up to ~30% is more interesting to me as well. I also noticed the collapse of the toys to life section and I was thinking of what could possibly replace that loss, if possible.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
What's actually remaining in good selling children's software on consoles at this point? LEGO and Minecraft?

I do realize that CoD, Halo, Destiny, and Battlefront often start getting fans at age 8 or whatever, so I guess that could be having an impact on the viability of anything else...
 
Shpeshal Nick

Shpeshal Nick

aka Collingwood
DriftingSpirit said:
I would say software sales and particularly high or low hardware sales.

I was more speaking broadly though. I just feel the Xbox performing well in what is by far its strongest territory is nothing out of the ordinary. Of course it is.

Absolutely.

The months from January to May (was this when the Xbox surge happened?) were bland. The PS4 has already established itself as the leader so it wasn't noteworthy to see it take those months. Especially coming off of what happened during the holidays of 2015.

Well, from my point of view, I see people taking this US situation and running with it. It is being discussed because it somehow shows how "poorly" the PS4 is doing right now.

I participated in hopes of cooling some of that discussion. I just think MS is improving from where they were before and Sony is just focusing on their internal goals over "We must dominate the Xbox!" this holiday and that is all fine. It isn't a sign of a huge comeback and it isn't a sign of a huge misstep (see: holidays 2014). We already know MS and Sony are going to see good to great sales this holiday in US. This isn't anything noteworthy.

Now, let's say holiday sales aren't all that good or even borderline okay or, dare I say, bad! Then that'll be something to discuss. Well, from my point of view anyway. As I said above, I'm not trying to be the ruler of what is and isn't noteworthy.

Right, I see what you're saying. I just feel taking these month to month changes and coming to broad conclusions is pointless. We've been down this road three times now since the consoles launched (talking about holiday sales) so we should understand how this ebb and flow works but alas.

Digital share going up to ~30% is more interesting to me as well. I also noticed the collapse of the toys to life section and I was thinking of what could possibly replace that loss, if possible.
Click to expand...

So sales are only noteworthy when the PlayStation 4 is winning. Gotcha.

Lol.
 
J

Jon Carter

Member
Nirolak said:
What's actually remaining in good selling children's software on consoles at this point? LEGO and Minecraft?

I do realize that CoD, Halo, Destiny, and Battlefront often start getting fans at age 8 or whatever, so I guess that could be having an impact on the viability of anything else...
Click to expand...

I'm guessing the Wii U's failure didn't help on that front. If the Switch is healthy, we could see hit kid-oriented franchises again.

Collingwood said:
So sales are only noteworthy when the PlayStation 4 is winning. Gotcha.

Lol.
Click to expand...

He literally said the opposite of that.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Nirolak said:
What's actually remaining in good selling children's software on consoles at this point? LEGO and Minecraft?

I do realize that CoD, Halo, Destiny, and Battlefront often start getting fans at age 8 or whatever, so I guess that could be having an impact on the viability of anything else...
Click to expand...

LEGO and Minecraft is it, and LEGO is a little shaky, Minecraft starting to show signs of age even as it continues to sell well at the moment. If switch doesn't get some of that market back to console I don't know what will.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
How the heck can anyone expect to have a helpful conversation when people are using "selling well" or "not selling good enough" when no one defines what well or good even means? Would be helpful if people were more specific.
Click to expand...

Well in this conversation it's about a franchise so I'd assume selling well would main selling comparatively close to the last main entry in said franchise. Falling notably short of sales of the last main entry would indicate a substantial decline and therefor equate to selling poorly. At least that's how I interpret it.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
I hear you Rex but even comparing physical numbers for gears 3 and physical for gears 4 is already not a good comparison. Because of the digital download component for gears now what's the comparable? Gears 3 physical versus gears 4 physical divided by 0.7 to account for an assumed 30% digital share? Do we adjust at all for installed base difference? what about the MTX Gears 4 has that Gears 3 didn't? Do those MTX sales not count to gauge the health of the game? And what about dev and marketing spend differences? It's a big ol rabbit hole.

I have no interest or take on Gears. I have no clue how to properly compare it to past releases. I think it's probably worse? But who knows.

Primethius said:
This has been the most exciting the threads ever been!
Click to expand...

Wait did that poster post about "talent" while posting a gif of Iggy Azalea?
 
M

michaelius

Banned
Nirolak said:
What's actually remaining in good selling children's software on consoles at this point? LEGO and Minecraft?

I do realize that CoD, Halo, Destiny, and Battlefront often start getting fans at age 8 or whatever, so I guess that could be having an impact on the viability of anything else...
Click to expand...

GTA - my neighbor has 9 year old son and all of his classmates with console already played it ;)
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
BTW, I tend to agree that month to month changes in a hundred thousand units one way or another isn't important. There are far more interesting things going on with digital shares, the toys to life category imploding, the impact of early access titles, but we never get into that here.
Click to expand...

I would love to discuss digital shares and the performance of premium early access skus on tentpole releases but I don't feel like we get the necessary information to discuss that. Seeing as nowadays we just get rankings based on either combined digital revenue where available or retail only revenue that's not exactly providing any clear indications on the trajectory of digital sales or the performance of these premium skus accompanied by various vague comments from insiders about climbing trends towards digital. Neither existing officially reported data or unofficial commentary seems sufficient to me to have any kind of substantive discussion on either matter.

As far as toys to life goes, we've known that the market was collapsing since Disney pulled out and Lego Dimensions severely underperformed. It always seemed like a poor value proposition to me so I'm surprised Skylanders and Amiibo saw as much success as they did previously. The change in performance for the later can be explained partially by lack of new figures released for some time now but the former's underperformance despite the release of a new title with the addition of another notable IP certainly doesn't bode well for the market. So basically: Brandon Jones am crying.

CosmicQueso said:
I hear you Rex but even comparing physical numbers for gears 3 and physical for gears 4 is already not a good comparison. Because of the digital download component for gears now what's the comparable? Gears 3 physical versus gears 4 physical divided by 0.7 to account for an assumed 30% digital share? Do we adjust at all for installed base difference? what about the MTX Gears 4 has that Gears 3 didn't? Do those MTX sales not count to gauge the health of the game? And what about dev and marketing spend differences? It's a big ol rabbit hole.

I have no interest or take on Gears. I have no clue how to properly compare it to past releases. I think it's probably worse? But who knows.
Click to expand...

All very valid points. Ideally we could compare retail + digital totals against previous entry's totals but we don't have the data for that currently. Rising digital shares and premium early access SKUs do make this a much harder comparison to make you're absolutely right.

Most notably though is what you mention with micro transactions. This is something that MS has included with every major guest party release this far this gen as an effort to bolster revenue and going by their repeated inclusion you would assume that they have provided a decent amount of extra revenue for these titles on top of their initual sales revenue otherwise they'd stop mandating their inclusion. I've been hoping to get enough info to talk about the success of this particular strategy all gen long but that has yet to happen and I doubt it will anytime soon as the only source for such info would be MS themselves. Thankfully I don't think we necessarily need to factor this particular revenue stream into conversations about unit sales performance / comparisons despite how much I'd love to discuss it.

But I agree we don't enough information for a proper comparison which is why I responded to Primethius saying precisely that. Anyone is feee to draw whatever conclusions they want from the existing data but I think many are attributing meaning to said data that doesn really existing an effort to make logical leaps to assert their conclusion. In all likelihood Gears 4 did perform lower than previous entries but it's important to be mindful of what the existing data actually tells and not assign relevance where none currently exists.

CosmicQueso said:
LEGO and Minecraft is it, and LEGO is a little shaky, Minecraft starting to show signs of age even as it continues to sell well at the moment. If switch doesn't get some of that market back to console I don't know what will.
Click to expand...

I'm hoping Nintendo can help recapture some that market with the release of the SW and HW for the Switch. If not it doesn't bode well for the future of dedicated gaming HW. Depending solely on Nintendo to drum up interest in younger demographics with how the WiiU has been performing isn't exactly an encouraging thought. Scary times...

Collingwood said:
So sales are only noteworthy when the PlayStation 4 is winning. Gotcha.

Lol.
Click to expand...

Y1WkLZZ.jpg
Click to expand...
.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Collingwood said:
So sales are only noteworthy when the PlayStation 4 is winning. Gotcha.

Lol.
Click to expand...
No, but the arrival of the Pro in Nov makes the Oct discussion sort of moot until we have a picture of what happens in November, which we won't have until late December unfortunately... (hopefully we will have some actual numbers then and also a split of the Pro SKU).

#shrug

An 8% increase in unit sold with a brand new model which is actually a clear upgrade (not just a slim) and a $50 price drop under the $300 barrier is, well, meh?
Lately the PS4, including the Slim, hasn't really been doing too hot either btw, just slightly less so even for X reasons.

Until we have more data, including Nov, it is just hard to really try to analyze what is going on.

If the Pro underperforms and somehow the XB1 family > PS4 fam in Nov, then clearly Sony messed up and they would be losing steam in NA, but frankly we do not know that (yet).
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Elandyll said:
No, but the arrival of the Pro in Nov makes the Oct discussion sort of moot until we have a picture of what happens in November, which we won't have until late December unfortunately... (hopefully we will have some actual numbers then and also a split of the Pro SKU).

#shrug

An 8% increase in unit sold with a brand new model which is actually a clear upgrade (not just a slim) and a $50 price drop under the $300 barrier is, well, meh?
Lately the PS4, including the Slim, hasn't really been doing too hot either btw, just slightly less so even for X reasons.

Until we have more data, including Nov, it is just hard to really try to analyze what is going on.

If the Pro underperforms and somehow the XB1 family > PS4 fam in Nov, then clearly Sony messed up and they would be losing steam in NA, but frankly we do not know that (yet).
Click to expand...
You have to remember last year was Halo month. Looking at month to month using 327k for October 2016:

September: 332,800 / 5 = 66,560
October: 327,000 / 4 = 81,750 (+23%)

That is a huge gain in October, almost matching September sales with one less week.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
michaelius said:
GTA - my neighbor has 9 year old son and all of his classmates with console already played it ;)
Click to expand...
Right, I mean that's certainly a thing. Disney Infinity 3.0 failed due to all the 7+ year olds buying Battlefront and lots of parents let their kids play GTA.

However, I do still feel there's a subsection of the young kid audience that isn't allowed to get these games that's probably not being well served, but maybe it's truly shrunk to the point that the ones who are left are sufficiently served by mobile, or parents just find zero objection to T rated games these days, and thus Destiny, Halo, Overwatch and related are simply enough to satisfy any and all demand from that age bracket.
 
L

Liabe Brave

Member
Welfare said:
When comparing consoles, I don't think you can compare two different years when talking about market leader performance. For the 6th gen, 2003 is the third year for the PS2, so you should compare the market at the time, not isolating a separate year because a console launched at a different time. For Xbox, 2004 was the best year for the console because of the price drop to $149. That's a completely different situation to what the market was like in 2003, and the topic is about how a market leader normally performs. If you just compare each consoles third year, then sure, but when talking about market leader performance you should compare consoles from the same year.
Click to expand...
I do agree that PS4 is posting low numbers for a market leader. I still disagree about the efficacy of doing the comparison the way you did, but they're your posts and I rightfully don't get a say. I respect that your logic is clear and reasonable.

Welfare said:
You have to remember last year was Halo month. Looking at month to month using 327k for October 2016:

September: 332,800 / 5 = 66,560
October: 327,000 / 4 = 81,750 (+23%)

That is a huge gain in October, almost matching September sales with one less week.
Click to expand...
Yeah, even if it doesn't quite have the power it once did, Gears definitely pushed consoles. Same as with Halo 5 last year.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Welfare said:
You have to remember last year was Halo month. Looking at month to month using 327k for October 2016:

September: 332,800 / 5 = 66,560
October: 327,000 / 4 = 81,750 (+23%)

That is a huge gain in October, almost matching September sales with one less week.
Click to expand...

Actually, this month for XB1 is really impressive now that I've thought about it a bit (and it's not groggy morning time). It's pretty substantial numbers going into the holidays which the XB1 is bound to do great in.

They're actually numbers that would be good if so much sales hadn't shifted into Nov/Dec, so even with the shift into account, these numbers are themselves look even better.

What really probably made me come around these numbers is that the closer we get, the more I'm on the "XB1>PS4 this November" train (I was already on it, but I just pushed the conductor off). I just don't see many new owners holding off on the Slim in the preceding months, which paints a picture of a weaker PS4 going into the holidays.

And that bundle sealed the deal for me. BF1 vs UC4.
 
U

unapersson

Member
Nirolak said:
Right, I mean that's certainly a thing. Disney Infinity 3.0 failed due to all the 7+ year olds buying Battlefront and lots of parents let their kids play GTA.

However, I do still feel there's a subsection of the young kid audience that isn't allowed to get these games that's probably not being well served, but maybe it's truly shrunk to the point that the ones who are left are sufficiently served by mobile, or parents just find zero objection to T rated games these days, and thus Destiny, Halo, Overwatch and related are simply enough to satisfy any and all demand from that age bracket.
Click to expand...

Personally I think online is killing the kids games market, I've got two kids (10 and 13) and if they're playing console games its a small subset shared with their friends that they can play online (Minecraft, Terraria, Gardan Warfare 2). And it really is a small collection of games they all go back to again and again. Apart from that they play browser games (largely .io online games) or on tablet.

If they play a single player game it rarely lasts long, as if they've not set the status to hide they're online then the party invites will appear and they're be dragged into one of the online games. Even some online games will suffer if not enough of the group own them. Their online friendship group is mostly 8-13 year olds, and yes, a lot of even the younger ones are playing COD/Destiny/GTA. I get a lot of requests to buy one of those games.

I've tried the Nintendo route (Wii U / 3DS) but they've shown little interest apart from the eldest playing a brief few months with Splatoon.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
unapersson said:
Personally I think online is killing the kids games market, I've got two kids (10 and 13) and if they're playing console games its a small subset shared with their friends that they can play online (Minecraft, Terraria, Gardan Warfare 2). And it really is a small collection of games they all go back to again and again. Apart from that they play browser games (largely .io online games) or on tablet.
Click to expand...

Seems a good anecdotal summary of what's potentially happening out there. Right now, kids are transitioning from these games to the aspirational "mature" games on consoles at some point. Will that continue? Is it smart for the traditional console market to just not make much of anything for kids? This group is the future of the marketplace, what are these kids going to want to play 10 years from now? Is it still going to be GTA and the big FPS?

Primethius said:
Unless I'm misunderstanding something, PS4 SW means that the PS4s built in base was able to push more SW then the XB1.
Click to expand...

Physically. Not necessarily the same situation in digital.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Yea, XB1 is taking November. I'm willing to make bets on it. That lead is pretty damn massive.

Shoutouts to AstroClaire for giving us the numbers.
 
wapplew

wapplew

Member
I don't see how Sony can turn things around in the US after this.
Get ready to fight for that second place with Switch.
 
N

Nightengale

Member
BF1 bundle sold wayyyy less than I expected. Guess one game alone, despite its popularity is not big enough to shift away from the better Gears Saga bundle at the same price.
 
D

DKHF

Member
wapplew said:
I don't see how Sony can turn things around in the US after this.
Get ready to fight for that second place with Switch.
Click to expand...
Serious? You don't think they can ever turn it around? Not next fall with Destiny 2, Red Dead Redemption 2, Battlefront 2 and CoD AW2 marketing deals/bundles?
 
B

blakep267

Member
Nightengale said:
BF1 bundle sold wayyyy less than I expected. Guess one game alone, despite its popularity is not big enough to shift away from the better Gears Saga bundle at the same price.
Click to expand...
I may be wrong, but I believe the only gears bundles that were available were the 1tb bundle and the LE 2tb bundle. The $299 bundle only came out in November and its GS exclusive. I'm surprised that the $299 BF bundle didn't do more than the more expensive gears. Looks like Gears and Minecraft were smart choices

I suppose the gears LE console could've been a bigger seller that the Halo one last year
 
S

SalvaPot

Member
Sorry if this has been answered before.

Do we have any idea how much Pokemon Sun & Moon are selling? I heard its the most preordered game from Nintendo, since, well, ever, but I don't know how truthful that is. Or could we expect an update by Nintendo soon enough, or we will probably get nothing until December?
 
D

DKHF

Member
SalvaPot said:
Sorry if this has been answered before.

Do we have any idea how much Pokemon Sun & Moon are selling? I heard its the most preordered game from Nintendo, since, well, ever, but I don't know how truthful that is. Or could we expect an update by Nintendo soon enough, or we will probably get nothing until December?
Click to expand...
That thing about it being the most pre-ordered Nintendo game ever is very truthful considering Nintendo themselves said it. I think all we know is it has shipped 10 mill copies in its initial shipment nothing about sales other than it is the most pre-ordered game.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Christopher Dring "console market continues to have a horrible year. Sales of games machines are down 30% in the UK this year"
2 3 4 5 6
278
13K
Dorfdad replied
AMD CFO blames lower console sales demand for muted financial results, strong demand for latest Ryzen mobile & desktop processor
2 3
119
6K
DaGwaphics replied
Full Q&A English Summary of Nintendo's Financial Results Briefing for Fiscal Year Ended March 2024
Business
0
346
Thick Thighs Save Lives replied
UK sales October 2023 - PS5#1 (-4%) XBS#2 (-33%) NSW#3 (+15%) | EA FC 24#1 Spider-Man#2 AC Mirage#3
Sales-Age 2
74
6K
demigod replied
NPD Analysis March: Dragon's Dogma 2 at No 1, FFVII Rebirth at 7th
Sales-Age 2
55
3K
nial replied
Top Bottom