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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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Fredrik

Member
I'm going with "Improvement from GameCube/Wii U", I'd love if it became a Wii-like success but I don't think casuals will be aboard this time and that's why Wii became such a hit. Switch is more likely to become a hit among core gamers that don't want to be bound to the TV. Indie and retro games seem to sell well too. Casuals has moved over to mobile. 35 million units sold before next platform is out.
 

Macka

Member
- Wii U received a price drop in September, 2013.
Wow, I didn't know this. I live in Australia and we never had a price drop here. That sucks. Fair point though, I guess. :/
- Parents had no problem paying $250 for Wii during 2006-2010. Switch isn't simply a portable device.
True, but I'm talking purely about Nintendo attempting to capture the handheld market. Obviously a family buying a Wii would be well aware that it was a device to be used in the home. Many families will do the same for the Switch. A handheld like the 3DS has a different purpose though, no? I know anecdotally my younger siblings each had a 3DS, so they could take them to friends houses or in the car on trips and so on. I don't believe that to be an uncommon example. Parents would be buying the DS/3DS for very different reasons than they would be buying a Wii. And this is something that the Switch doesn't really offer unless you only have one child. In mid 2011 you could buy two 3DS's for not much more than one Switch. I love the Switch as a handheld, but let's be real here - it doesn't fill exactly the same role as the Wii and 3DS at the same time.

- Nintendo has released countless software titles throughout their history below the standard MSRP. One of the most successful DS titles was priced at $20 (Brain Age).
Come on dude. There's a bit of a difference between a game like Brain Age and Pokemon. The reason games were cheaper on 3DS is because development costs were lower. With all games being made in HD for the Switch now, prices will most likely rise. I'm sure there will be the odd low budget eShop release that's cheaper, but the BIG handheld games Nintendo has leaned on in the past are now going to be more expensive than people are used to, and it's disingenuous to claim that won't have an impact.
 
Come on dude. There's a bit of a difference between a game like Brain Age and Pokemon. The reason games were cheaper on 3DS is because development costs were lower. With all games being made in HD for the Switch now, prices will most likely rise. I'm sure there will be the odd low budget eShop release that's cheaper, but the BIG handheld games Nintendo has leaned on in the past are now going to be more expensive than people are used to, and it's disingenuous to claim that won't have an impact.

Like most of Nintendo's previous devices, Switch will have numerous "budget" releases that sell extremely well. This point really isn't even worth discussing further. It's inevitable.

But you're absolutely right...the BIG releases will be $60. And I'm telling you, it's not going to negatively affect performance in any meaningful way. Maybe it would if this were simply a handheld device.
 

Macka

Member
Like most of Nintendo's previous devices, Switch will have numerous "budget" releases that sell extremely well. This really isn't even worth discussing further. It's inevitable.
Of course, but those games aren't the system sellers though. We're arguing different things here, it seems.

Wii U is the only Nintendo console without a huge price drop

You could buy a 2DS for $80 last black Friday.

GameCube and the Wii went down to $99. DS Lites were $50 at one point.
Those are 'end of life' price drops that came well past the point the systems were selling well.

I was arguing with OrbitalBeard that the Switch won't hit 3DS sales numbers unless it gets to $200USD within the next few years. Obviously it will be reduced eventually, but to sell ~70 million units it needs to happen ASAP imo.
 

D.Lo

Member
I lol'ed at this. I can safely say ambassador will not be happening. I dont recall if I posted in this thread but I know I voted for better than Wii U.
Yeah reading negative posts in this thread is going to be massive fun over the next year.
 
Those are 'end of life' price drops that came well past the point the systems were selling well.

I was arguing with OrbitalBeard that the Switch won't hit 3DS sales numbers unless it gets to $200USD within the next few years. Obviously it will be reduced eventually, but to sell ~70 million units it needs to happen ASAP imo.

They had plenty of sales in between those as well. 3DS was regularly $150 before that.

Switch will easily be found for $200 in 2019.
 
I voted for "Improvement from GameCube/Wii U" when this thread was created, and still feel comfortable with that. Don't think it'll quite hit wii levels but it'll be a decent success for them....providing the first party support pipeline is good.

I still think they should port every first party wiiu game that doesn't depend on the tablet to the switch. Most of the Switch users will never have played them.
 

Theonik

Member
- Parents had no problem paying $250 for Wii during 2006-2010. Switch isn't simply a portable device.
That's for the market to decide. Don't take early sales as an indicator of the platform's long term viability. Jury's still out on what the mainstream thinks about a $300 Switch.

I still think they should port every first party wiiu game that doesn't depend on the tablet to the switch. Most of the Switch users will never have played them.
They should though I still wonder how many Switch owners atm are also WiiU owners or owned one in the past. Undoubtedly the launch audience for the WiiU are going to be Nintendo fans and/or lapsed Nintendo customers.
 

M3d10n

Member
I voted for "Improvement from GameCube/Wii U" when this thread was created, and still feel comfortable with that. Don't think it'll quite hit wii levels but it'll be a decent success for them....providing the first party support pipeline is good.

I still think they should port every first party wiiu game that doesn't depend on the tablet to the switch. Most of the Switch users will never have played them.

Mario Kart 8 is the barometer for the viability of more Wii U ports. It was one of the Wii U games with the highest attach ratio, so if it still sells well on the Switch it means the market is open to it. It's also an easy way to cover gaps and avoid droughts.
 
Well I'm eating crow like most of everyone in here, several pages and weeks back. I was in the camp that thought "Wii U numbers, it'd be lucky to hit GameCube levels" and now the Switch is pretty much set to rapidly eclipse both, easily passing the N64 probably and may even hit 3DS numbers. I still don't think it'll be a Wii style hit, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me if it reaches the 60 to 80 million range quite comfortably. Like, almost every Switch thread we have now is more news that it's flying off the shelves. How wrong most of us were.

All this and they still have the Pokemon bomb to drop. Imagine if Stars hits this year, Christ.
 

Fiendcode

Member
i hope they could convince rockstar to port over GTAV. would be a title id double dip for portability
I think Skyrim will be the case study for these sorts of ports. If it sells well I can see other western publishers jumping aboard with similar last gen remasters like GTAV.
 
So, let's see....

-Performance clearly superior to a Raspberry Pi 3, probably.
-Built-in storage enough for installing as many as 1-2 games
-Voice comm requiring the use of an app on your cell phone
-Paid subscription online service feature list competitive with Heat.net
-Peripheral pricing so high and bizarrely lopsided with the initial hardware bundle that it makes buying a second Switch for parts a sensible option

...that's pretty dire, but it's still a much more compelling product than the Wii U at first reveal, simply by virtue of being a handheld. Might be somewhat more successful than the Wii U since it's not trying to leverage a poorly thought out archaic tablet as a unique selling point this time, but the cost of ownership is looking *astronomically* high. It's arguably higher than the major console competition, given the peripheral pricing, anemic built-in storage, low value paid online, etc., so it's abandoning a lot of the appeal that would otherwise come with being a handheld.

Handheld form factor and performance, but with $60 game pricing, paid online, tiny storage, and obscene peripheral costs. Worst of both worlds, arguably, and the mediocre mobile SoC isn't going to do it any favors when people hook it up to their living room setups. I seriously doubt I'll want to stretch out Switch games onto my 75" 4K HDR TV.

Not exactly situated to take the market by storm with all that and a very thin launch lineup. Not something that's easy to root for as a consumer, either, since Nintendo loaded up on anti-consumer business decisions here. It's telling that first shipment pre-orders are still available.

No.

delete your account
 

jorgejjvr

Member
Well I'm eating crow like most of everyone in here, several pages and weeks back. I was in the camp that thought "Wii U numbers, it'd be lucky to hit GameCube levels" and now the Switch is pretty much set to rapidly eclipse both, easily passing the N64 probably and may even hit 3DS numbers. I still don't think it'll be a Wii style hit, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me if it reaches the 60 to 80 million range quite comfortably. Like, almost every Switch thread we have now is more news that it's flying off the shelves. How wrong most of us were.

All this and they still have the Pokemon bomb to drop. Imagine if Stars hits this year, Christ.
And now in the eve of Odyssey releasing
 

MastAndo

Member
I thought there was a good chance it would flop, but I was even more certain I wouldn't personally enjoy it after seeing the specs and promo videos. Welp, both on wrong accounts.
 
nintendo is gonna make cardboard the hottest toy of 2018

shit is surreal

y'all never expected this
Good luck with that. Switch is obviously gonna be fine regardless but i can see labo busting hard. Neat idea that cost too much. Cheap materials that will get ruined in the first week or two. You don't charge 70 bucks for cardboard. I guess we will see though. Feels like nintendo got high off their money hatting of amiibos and were like hey now let's charge people for cardboard!
 

DonF

Member
I thought there was a good chance it would flop, but I was even more certain I wouldn't personally enjoy it after seeing the specs and promo videos. Welp, both on wrong accounts.
I was on the exact same boat. Having a PC and a PS4 pro, the switch looked underpowered and with a underdeveloped online structure. I just got it since I could get it for cheap. And oh boy, such a lovely little exclusives machine it is.
 

bukowski81

Member
Good luck with that. Switch is obviously gonna be fine regardless but i can see labo busting hard. Neat idea that cost too much. Cheap materials that will get ruined in the first week or two. You don't charge 70 bucks for cardboard. I guess we will see though. Feels like nintendo got high off their money hatting of amiibos and were like hey now let's charge people for cardboard!

They arent charging 70 for carbdoard. The bulk of the price comes from the software, I dont know why people seem to not be able to grasp that.
 

The Hermit

Member
Reading this thread and the astonishingly terrible prediction level of the GAF conglomerate, I change my vote and think this will be a Wii-style success.

My knee jerk reaction from the presentation and pricepoint was that it would sell as much as the n64, but after a while thinking about it and reading the replies, I changed my opinion in April.

I stand by it.
 

spookyfish

Member
Good luck with that. Switch is obviously gonna be fine regardless but i can see labo busting hard. Neat idea that cost too much. Cheap materials that will get ruined in the first week or two. You don't charge 70 bucks for cardboard. I guess we will see though. Feels like nintendo got high off their money hatting of amiibos and were like hey now let's charge people for cardboard!

While anecdotal, many of my friends with young teen kids are really interested in Labo, when they weren't in the Switch proper. It's too early to tell, for sure, but I'm surprised by the positive buzz among non-Switch owners.
 

subsmoke

Member
The Switch has the same problem that every other Nintendo console since the 64 has had which is lack of third party support. Unless you're a huge fan of Mario and Zelda, huge enough that you're willing to spend $300+ on a Switch and games for it on top of what you paid for your PS4 or X1 then it's not really worth it.
 
The Switch has the same problem that every other Nintendo console since the 64 has had which is lack of third party support. Unless you're a huge fan of Mario and Zelda, huge enough that you're willing to spend $300+ on a Switch and games for it on top of what you paid for your PS4 or X1 then it's not really worth it.

When you say that, are you really saying some specific 3rd party? Or some specific game? Because EA, Ubisoft, Bethesda, SquareEnix, Capcom etc. have released games on the Switch... so seems like there is 3rd party support to me.

If you are expecting parity with releases on PS4/Xbox, then that isn't a logical expectation, but you can't legitimately say there is no 3rd party support on the Switch.
 

Xilium

Member
When you say that, are you really saying some specific 3rd party? Or some specific game? Because EA, Ubisoft, Bethesda, SquareEnix, Capcom etc. have released games on the Switch... so seems like there is 3rd party support to me.

If you are expecting parity with releases on PS4/Xbox, then that isn't a logical expectation, but you can't legitimately say there is no 3rd party support on the Switch.

When people talk about 3rd party support on Nintendo consoles, they are specifically referring to the tent pole titles of the major 3rd party developers. Nintendo has always gotten spin-offs or original games from them but those aren't the games that sell systems. Nintendo has largely relied on their own 1st party output to sell systems and that has been very hit or miss in the past.

Releasing with a mainline Mario and Zelda in the same year has certainly paid dividends but I'm curious if they can keep it up. I feel that the Switch being a replacement for two systems is both a boon (initial sales will be higher by pooling together the Nintendo faithful from both the console and handheld demographics) and a determent (I have to imagine their end of generation sales exceptions will be fairly high to account for the lack of handheld sales going forward).
 
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Osukaa

Member
LOL I dont remember if I said it would be a success or a failure.... I hope I said success cause damn I've ate enough crow to last a lifetime...

Congrats Nintendo.... you survived ... again.

seriously though I think its a neat system that I hope gets some form of online service + trophies soon
 

JaxBriggs

Member
I didn't take part in this thread earlier but if I'm being honest, I would never have predicted the Switch to be so popular. Nintendo has proven me very wrong in that regard, and good on them.
 

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
Good luck with that. Switch is obviously gonna be fine regardless but i can see labo busting hard. Neat idea that cost too much. Cheap materials that will get ruined in the first week or two. You don't charge 70 bucks for cardboard. I guess we will see though. Feels like nintendo got high off their money hatting of amiibos and were like hey now let's charge people for cardboard!

Jesus!

Can we drop this rethoric already?

It's a game. Physical software, packed with cardboard patterns...

Is it pricey? I would say so, but it ain't just cardboard..
 
When people talk about 3rd party support on Nintendo consoles, they are specifically referring to the tent pole titles of the major 3rd party developers.

Well, that's what people should say rather than "The Switch has no 3rd party support! It's doomed!".

Just like the whole "The Switch has no games!" thing that gets repeated endlessly. The Switch had practically more games in its first year than any console I can think of in quite a long time.
 
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subsmoke

Member
When you say that, are you really saying some specific 3rd party? Or some specific game? Because EA, Ubisoft, Bethesda, SquareEnix, Capcom etc. have released games on the Switch... so seems like there is 3rd party support to me.

If you are expecting parity with releases on PS4/Xbox, then that isn't a logical expectation, but you can't legitimately say there is no 3rd party support on the Switch.

I mean exclusive 3rd party developers who only design games for Nintendo like Rareware used to be. The Switch does have 3rd party games but they're mostly multiplat.
 

goldenpp72

Member
I mean exclusive 3rd party developers who only design games for Nintendo like Rareware used to be. The Switch does have 3rd party games but they're mostly multiplat.

MS doesn't get any third party exclusives these days either, so this is hardly Nintendo alone here, you gotta pay up these days. It would be likely that Nintendo will get more third party exclusives than Xbox actually due to the nature of the system, but time will tell. Things aren't the same now as they were back then.
 
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Aldric

Member
Looking back on this thread confirmed something l suspected for a while: video games enthusiasts on internet message boards are completely incapable of predicting a product's success with the mainstream audience. And l include myself in this, l was convinced the Switch would bomb because it didn't correspond to my expectations. Turns out l was full of shit.

What's also interesting is that it's the third time this happens. l'm old now and was already on the internet 10 years ago. The reactions in this thread are very similar to the reactions Gaf and some popular french forums had after the DS and Wii were unveiled, and we know how it turned out. lf it happens once you can say it was a fluke, twice it gets harder to rationalize, but the third time you've got to admit you don't know shit.
 

FStubbs

Member
MS doesn't get any third party exclusives these days either, so this is hardly Nintendo alone here, you gotta pay up these days. It would be likely that Nintendo will get more third party exclusives than Xbox actually due to the nature of the system, but time will tell. Things aren't the same now as they were back then.

Xbox One still gets vastly better third party support overall than the Switch does. Is there any real comparison?
 

Camaway2

Member
I had expected the Switch to be quite popular, but not THIS kind of popular! My LABO order is in, my son is going to love it!
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
I expected a tablet console to bomb. They obviously had some good first party support to sell it. The question is will the 3rd party non-old-game-ports show up and what will drive sales with no new Mario or Zelda? I guess I'm too old and have no love for Nintendo to understand it.
 

JORMBO

Darkness no more
Nintendo Switch = 14.86 million LTD (10 months)
Nintendo Wii U = 13.56 million LTD

This is interesting looking back. I remember when they first showed the Switch I thought it was stupid and overpriced. I ended up getting one a few months later and have played it more then my other consoles since.
 

Mantorok

Member
This is interesting looking back. I remember when they first showed the Switch I thought it was stupid and overpriced. I ended up getting one a few months later and have played it more then my other consoles since.

I originally thought that gaming-on-the-go was a gimmick, but you just can't beat playing for a bit in the living room, taking it with you somewhere else and continuing precisely where you left off, and the icing on the cake is that you can still play the damn thing any way you want, detach the controllers, take the pro controller with you, whatever, apart from the smaller screen and battery there is absolutely zero constraints when taking it on the go.

They knocked it out of the park because, whilst initially looking gimmicky, it is so far from that it's unbelievable.
 
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