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D.Lo · Jun 21, 2017

joe_zazen said:
Wii U was an unappealing product the market rejected which followed a hyped console that failed to deliver in the last few years of its life, from what I understand. I get the feeling some want to blame the decline solely on a general decline in console gaming without factoring in Nintendo's failure.

This is absolutely true.

However, the Wii WAS part of the market. A full, bona-fide entry in the market. Therefore, if a segment of consumers who were previously part of the market disappeared simply because Nintendo went off the rails, well it doesn't matter why, it's a 40% market contraction. No spinning of 'b b but the other half of the market that didn't disappear is doing slightly better launch aligned' changes that.

Clear said:
Well there are quite a few caveats to that, most notably due to the definition of generational sales being a mutable concept.

Although Sony spluttered horribly out the gate with PS3, over the same period they shipped a very substantial number of PS2's globally (40m + as they only reached 100m shipped in November 2005).

Its always amazed me how people conflate PS2's lifetime sales total with the figures actually achieved during the nominal 6th gen of hardware.

That's true, but it's very difficult to make comparisons otherwise. PS360 also had a very prolonged generation due to what was essentially a MS/Sony new-console-launch ceasefire in an attempt to make up for some of their horrific early gen losses, and this buffed their totals in a way no previous gen console had a chance to. Switch is now out competing directly against consoles that its predecessor also did, muddying comparisons. IMO Late PS2 buyers are still part of that console's generation, they are just the tail of it. The same went for PS1 which also sold 35% of its total after the PS2 was out.

MatPiscatella · Jun 21, 2017

D.Lo said:
This is absolutely true.

However, the Wii WAS part of the market. A full, bona-fide entry in the market. Therefore, if a segment of consumers who were previously part of the market disappeared simply because Nintendo went off the rails, well it doesn't matter why, it's a 40% market contraction. No spinning of 'b b but the other half of the market that didn't disappear is doing slightly better launch aligned' changes that.

I understand your point.

But companies have adjusted to this. Publisher count fell considerably, fewer packaged games are being made (many of the over 700 made in 2010 were Wii shovelware).

You look at the word "healthy" and it would be far more unhealthy if that pub/title contraction didn't happen.

But it did, the market has adjusted.

It's not quite right to gauge health just on sales. You also have to gauge health on the costs associated with those sales.

So yeah, I get your point on sales, but I think there's more that could be considered?

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Jun 21, 2017

LordRaptor said:
You had a line here about defining "healthy" as sustainability rather than growth which I somewhat agree with, (but would still expect a healthy industry to at least be matching population growth) but I think there's also inherent ambiguity about the definition of "the industry" - the transition to digital over retail is obviously better news for publishers than it is for retailers, or for secondary businesses involved in the logistical side of things like packaging, manufacturing and shipping.

It is also somewhat open to question whether the move to digital supports longterm health; moving from ~40% revenue per sale to ~70% is a noticeable short term increase in direct revenue, but it can only happen once; once everyone has been transitioned to digital purchases, the only real gains to be made from distribution model changes would be setting up your own storefront for 100% revenue, which I do not foresee platform holders being particularly willing to allow (although EA have made some steps in this direction on Xbox One)

This is an interesting point. Population growth and sales growth in a "healthy" console industry will of course be correlated, however, I would not expect a linear relationship. If you think about the average household, these can vary massively in size, and yet consoles are more likely to be on average just about a ratio of 1 per household; as opposed to one per individual per household.

You might, however, argue that a household of gamer parents should produce gamer offspring that grow up to purchase their own consoles on a rate of roughly 1 per X number of individuals (since not every child will be a gamer). So, since population growth is driven by a combination of birth and death rates, there will also be an inherent time-lag factor where these children in single-console households grow up before they make their own purchases.

So if we were to plot a graph of console sales growth against population growth, I would expect the slopes of each curve to be equal but shifted along the "time" axis by the value of this average time-lag factor (ignoring all other factors affecting console sales growth).

Tl:dr, I wouldn't expect console sales growth in a "healthy" industry to match population growth. As the relationship is a little more complicated than that.

Hero · Jun 21, 2017

NOLA_Gaffer said:
Xbox 360 software was also generally $10 more expensive at $59.99 versus the Wii's $49.99.

This is important to note and also we need to factor in the cost to make a game for the HD systems that generation were much higher than they were for a Wii game.

$ sales is AN important metric but not the ONLY important metric.

Ahasverus · Jun 21, 2017

I'd save myself the embarrassment of contradicting an statistically informed, paid industry analyst, but I digress.

Glad to see we're past the 2010 era of consoles being doomed. I think I'm fine with the current state of the industry, there are viable mobile games, multiplayer centric games, microtransaction rules games, good single player epics, and even the Japanese are back. In terms of variety it feels like the 2017 version of the PS2 days.

I'm still afraid of anti consumer practices in the future, but it's not like we're anywhere near the homogenized nickel dimming future we were facing years ago.

Nirolak · Jun 21, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
I've been wondering a lot about this... do they end up just going the Surface route, make a device for under the TV that's a PC with a console UI and store and it's just "Xbox" or whatever. I mean, from what I understand, the original idea of the Xbox was the DirectXbox with that kind of idea in mind.

I honestly think they might have just dropped the generationless idea because they don't actually have the market clout to dictate such a thing anymore.

Like, let's say that Sony releases a PlayStation 5 in 2019 or 2020, and developers start dropping the PS4 and XB1 a year later.

What does Microsoft do in this situation, demand that developers support both the Xbox 2020 and the Xbox One X to maintain their generationless idea? That seems like a disaster in the making.

They pretty much have to play whatever game Sony wants to at this point, and Sony seems pretty up on the generation structure.

Theslammer · Jun 21, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
I understand your point.

But companies have adjusted to this. Publisher count fell considerably, fewer packaged games are being made (many of the over 700 made in 2010 were Wii shovelware).

You look at the word "healthy" and it would be far more unhealthy if that pub/title contraction didn't happen.

But it did, the market has adjusted.

It's not quite right to gauge health just on sales. You also have to gauge health on the costs associated with those sales.

So yeah, I get your point on sales, but I think there's more that could be considered?

There's also the point of the consoles doing "slightly better" than launch-aligned. The PS4 is not that far from surpassing the PS3's lifetime sales, and the PS4 wasn't selling at the loss the PS3 was, both in software and in hardware. It's not "slight."

Ahasverus said:
I'd save my embarrassment contradicting an statistically informed, paid industry analyst, but I digress.

Glad to see we're past the 2010 past of consoles being doomed. I think I'm content with the current state of the industry, there are mobile, multiplayer centric games, microtransactions, good singl player content, and even the Japanese are back. It feels like the 2017 version of the PS2 days.

I'm afraid of anti consumer practices in the future, but it's not the nickel dimming future we were facing ears ago.

Yeah, while I think having conversations (and reservations, for that matter) are healthy, of course, I think some people just don't know what they're talking about when they talk strictly about sales, sales, sales, and really expose it when talking to someone in the know.

D.Lo · Jun 21, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
I understand your point.

But companies have adjusted to this. Publisher count fell considerably, fewer packaged games are being made (many of the over 700 made in 2010 were Wii shovelware).

You look at the word "healthy" and it would be far more unhealthy if that pub/title contraction didn't happen.

But it did, the market has adjusted.

It's not quite right to gauge health just on sales. You also have to gauge health on the costs associated with those sales.

So yeah, I get your point on sales, but I think there's more that should be considered?

Absolutely. That's a different perspective on market. IMO less consumers is always bad, even if they spend more (red ocean), but I guess closing studios and publishers makes what is left more stable than it could have been.

A for discussing related points, it is clearly a fascinating market transformation. The whole cloudy/DLC 'games as a service' thing is IMO as big a change as online and disc media were combined.

To me it does seem to point to the death of the console to a certain extent. If you're being sold a service more than a copy of a work, walled gardens will evolve to be digital ones (marketplaces), rather than physical (a particular proprietary hardware architecture). At best a certain player could remain a big enough piece of the pie (eg like Apple/iOS) to demand a customised version of a service for that platform, but ultimately surely the service becomes platform agnostic.

joe_zazen · Jun 21, 2017

also, this idea that if you aren't growing you are dying is part of the reason capitalism is antithetical to sustainability.

Ushay · Jun 21, 2017

GTA V, holy hell that game has ungodly constitution to last so long in the top ten for this amount of time. I'm wondering what kind of splash RDR 2 will make,

Chauzu · Jun 21, 2017

joe_zazen said:
also, this idea that if you aren't growing you are dying is part of the reason capitalism is antithetical to sustainability.

I hate hearing news of companies in crisis and the crisis is that their growth in earnings didn't continue as well as before. Like, we're making tons of money, even more than before, but we wanted to make even more now.

MatPiscatella · Jun 21, 2017

D.Lo said:
To me it does seem to point to the death of the console to a certain extent. If you're being sold a service more than a copy of a work, walled gardens will evolve to be digital ones (marketplaces), rather than physical (a particular proprietary hardware architecture). At best a certain player could remain a big enough piece of the pie (eg like Apple/iOS) to demand a customised version of a service for that platform, but ultimately surely the service becomes platform agnostic.

I actually agree with this. My guess is within the next 15-20 years. But who knows, I certainly don't.

But when companies do strat plans they're generally not that much longer than 5 years, so my focus is much more short to mid term, with a sharper focus on most recent history. Again, perspectives. I get why the way I bucket some of the numbers can be frustrating for someone that's looking at things on a far longer timeline and at much higher levels.

Ahasverus · Jun 21, 2017

D.Lo said:
Absolutely. That's a different perspective on market. IMO less consumers is always bad, even if they spend more (red ocean), but I guess closing studios and publishers makes what is left more stable than it could have been.

A for discussing related points, it is clearly a fascinating market transformation. The whole cloudy/DLC 'games as a service' thing is IMO as big a change as online and disc media were combined.

To me it does seem to point to the death of the console to a certain extent. If you're being sold a service more than a copy of a work, walled gardens will evolve to be digital ones (marketplaces), rather than physical (a particular proprietary hardware architecture). At best a certain player could remain a big enough piece of the pie (eg like Apple/iOS) to demand a customised version of a service for that platform, but ultimately surely the service becomes platform agnostic.

That's not where we're heading to, at all. Where will you play the games? on your phone? or a super duper PC? a smart TV? the cloud (ha-ha)? gaming hardware is going nowhere, at least in the next decades, and absolutely not in international markets where the infraestructure (both physical and service based) is not there and won't be.

Humdinger · Jun 21, 2017

Can someone enlighten me on how we arrive at estimates for Xbox vs. PS vs. Switch monthly console sales numbers, now that we have no leakers? Did I hear something about getting vague pointers about whose prediction was closest, then somehow divining a sales range from that? Some other method? Or is this something that is supposed to be veiled in secrecy?

I realize we've spent the last two pages talking about how looking only at console sales is a naïve way to judge industry health. But I'm a simple guy.

I'm wondering where we get the monthly console sales numbers from now. Can anyone fill me in on that process?

LordRaptor · Jun 21, 2017

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
Tl:dr, I wouldn't expect console sales growth in a "healthy" industry to match population growth. As the relationship is a little more complicated than that.

It is more complicated than that, but its not the case that console purchasers as a userbase simply isn't growing fast enough; its that that number has decreased by somewhere between 100-200 million people depending on what data you choose to exclude.
Those were people who were historically willing to buy dedicated hardware for the purpose of playing videogames but now are not.

I mean, there are 7 billion people on the planet; the sales of current generation consoles are nowhere near saturation point.

Theslammer said:
I think some people just don't know what they're talking about when they talk strictly about sales, sales, sales, and really expose it when talking to someone in the know.

You notably still haven't provided your data that more games are being released today on consoles than ever before, even after quoting Mats statements about severe contractions, loss of publishers and studios and loss of released titles and saying how you agree.

joe_zazen · Jun 21, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
I actually agree with this. My guess is within the next 15-20 years.

Why do MS, Sony, Apple, Google, etc invest so much in hardware? I think the answer is that proprietary hardware is vital to big profits in the C. E. market and will remain so. People like stuff.

For maximum profits, you need both proprietary services running on proprietary hardware. That is the best way to exclude competition and extract rents.

D.Lo · Jun 21, 2017

Ahasverus said:
That's not where we're heading to, at all. Where will you play the games? on your phone? or a super duper PC? a smart TV? the cloud (ha-ha)? gaming hardware is going nowhere, at least in the next decades, and absolutely not in international markets where the infraestructure (both physical and service based) is not there and won't be.

'International markets' - by which I assume you mean anywhere not Japan, North America and Western Europe (since J/NA/WE do have that infrastructure). So Asia and India?

Asia, India, South America, Eastern Europe - these places are already basically 100% mobile and PC. Consoles do not sell in great numbers in these places and never have, aside from pirate Famicoms etc.

And yes, most business software has essentially migrated to being in your browser on any recent device. I can literally do 100% of what is required for my job on my TV or phone, with no other hardware required. Ten years ago I needed to open an application on a specific type of hardware (Intel) in a specific OS (Windows) to do the same thing. Games moving from being retail toys to being digitally delivered ongoing services (which is how I would describe the majority of Destiny or Splatoon for most users) facilitates this happening for at least a segment of gaming.

joe_zazen · Jun 21, 2017

Anderson DL said:
Can someone enlighten me on how we arrive at estimates for Xbox vs. PS vs. Switch monthly console sales numbers, now that we have no leakers? Did I hear something about getting vague pointers about whose prediction was closest, then somehow divining a sales range from that? Some other method? Or is this something that is supposed to be veiled in secrecy?

I realize we've spent the last two pages talking about how looking only at console sales is a naïve way to judge industry health. But I'm a simple guy.

I'm wondering where we get the monthly console sales numbers from now. Can anyone fill me in on that process?

We know who 'won', rest is conjecture.

Primethius · Jun 21, 2017

Anderson DL said:
Can someone enlighten me on how we arrive at estimates for Xbox vs. PS vs. Switch monthly console sales numbers, now that we have no leakers? Did I hear something about getting vague pointers about whose prediction was closest, then somehow divining a sales range from that? Some other method? Or is this something that is supposed to be veiled in secrecy?

I realize we've spent the last two pages talking about how looking only at console sales is a naïve way to judge industry health. But I'm a simple guy.

I'm wondering where we get the monthly console sales numbers from now. Can anyone fill me in on that process?

We have prediction winners and then some very smart people do the maths to give us a data range. Throw in some PR every now and then and we get some pretty good and reliable data.

hanspampel · Jun 21, 2017

Anderson DL said:
Can someone enlighten me on how we arrive at estimates for Xbox vs. PS vs. Switch monthly console sales numbers, now that we have no leakers? Did I hear something about getting vague pointers about whose prediction was closest, then somehow divining a sales range from that? Some other method? Or is this something that is supposed to be veiled in secrecy?

I realize we've spent the last two pages talking about how looking only at console sales is a naïve way to judge industry health. But I'm a simple guy.

I'm wondering where we get the monthly console sales numbers from now. Can anyone fill me in on that process?

it's dead now
don't bother anymore

noobie · Jun 21, 2017

Are we going to get any sales ranges for may 2017 to know the current market situation.

. What is cumulative if HZD or MK or Forza or MLB or anything.

Humdinger · Jun 21, 2017

Primethius said:
We have prediction winners and then some very smart people do the maths to give us a data range. Throw in some PR every now and then and we get some pretty good and reliable data.

Thanks. The other two people said there is no way to know, but I thought I'd heard there was a way to at least get ballpark figures, and it had to do with the predictions.

How do we know who the prediction winner is?

majik13 · Jun 21, 2017

Nice Work for Farpoint, game deserves it. I think it could be higher, if more people could buy the bundle.

Scoops · Jun 21, 2017

Impressive Zelda hold for its third month out.

Inuhanyou · Jun 21, 2017

Nirolak said:
I honestly think they might have just dropped the generationless idea because they don't actually have the market clout to dictate such a thing anymore.

Like, let's say that Sony releases a PlayStation 5 in 2019 or 2020, and developers start dropping the PS4 and XB1 a year later.

What does Microsoft do in this situation, demand that developers support both the Xbox 2020 and the Xbox One X to maintain their generationless idea? That seems like a disaster in the making.

They pretty much have to play whatever game Sony wants to at this point, and Sony seems pretty up on the generation structure.

i agree with this. this is why i always say that generations aren't dead just because MS says they are. Despite PS2's gigantic lead, devs started a new gen on 360 before PS3 was even ready. So why would they follow MS's lead on a much smaller userbase inferior to its competition in the userbase category?

hanspampel · Jun 21, 2017

Anderson DL said:
Thanks. The other two people said there is no way to know, but I thought I'd heard there was a way to at least get ballpark figures, and it had to do with the predictions.

How do we know who the prediction winner is?

it was possible, because we knew at least one actual figure
last 2 months nintendo gave switch unit sales

now you have 3 variables

Primethius · Jun 21, 2017

Anderson DL said:
Thanks. The other two people said there is no way to know, but I thought I'd heard there was a way to at least get ballpark figures, and it had to do with the predictions.

How do we know who the prediction winner is?

Prediction results are based on actual results but data is hidden as said data is not public. That portion is reliable, though obviously based on trust.

KillerMan91 · Jun 21, 2017

D.Lo said:
'International markets' - by which I assume you mean anywhere not Japan, North America and Western Europe (since J/NA/WE do have that infrastructure). So Asia and India?

Asia, India, South America, Eastern Europe - these places are already basically 100% mobile and PC. Consoles do not sell in great numbers in these places and never have, aside from pirate Famicoms etc.

And yes, most business software has essentially migrated to being in your browser on any recent device. I can literally do 100% of what is required for my job on my TV or phone, with no other hardware required. Ten years ago I needed to open an application on a specific type of hardware (Intel) in a specific OS (Windows) to do the same thing. Games moving from being retail toys to being digitally delivered ongoing services (which is how I would describe the majority of Destiny or Splatoon for most users) facilitates this happening for at least a segment of gaming.

Sony ships tens of millions of units every gen outside of traditional gaming markets (NA, Japan and Western Europe). All data we have gotten so far this gen from developing markets indicates that PS4 is destroying previous PlayStation records in developing world. PC and mobile might be main platforms to game on these markets but there is growing console market out there too.

MatPiscatella · Jun 21, 2017

Inuhanyou said:
i agree with this. this is why i always say that generations aren't dead just because MS says they are.

But why does any of that matter?

joe_zazen said:
For maximum profits, you need both proprietary services running on proprietary hardware.

I dunno, 15 years ago everything was about winning the battle for the living room. Now, nobody cares about that. Things change, and 15-20 years is a very long time in tech. There are scenarios where these rules can change over time.

Good news for me is I'm old so I'll either be (hopefully) retired or (not so hopefully) dead by then and won't have to care. Yay being old!

SmokedMeat · Jun 21, 2017

Nice to see Prey doing well. Injustice getting the sales it deserves, and Mariokart performed very well. GTA V is crazy.

Nirolak · Jun 21, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
But why does any of that matter?

I view it primarily as a marketing and business strategy. It's much easier to convince people to buy a new box that is required for new games than it is to get them to buy an upgrade to a box that is running their games perfectly fine.

The people who are upgraders are also willing to move much earlier if they know in the future they will be required to own the system judging by the early gen sales rate.

Like if overall annual console sales go down a year after the upgrades come out, they're not doing a great job moving more hardware. At that point it's more of a delay for an inevitable generational hardware decline.

Similarly the biggest publishers get to lord it over the second tier of publishers because they can wage pocketbook warfare, which makes them want to push console vendors for new generations. Japan lost almost all of its marketshare over last generation and this one, and several major Western publishers struggle to keep up with the biggest ones.

MatPiscatella · Jun 21, 2017

I really don't want to get sucked into the vortex of how generations are derived, because no one wins. It is a pit of despair.

One the one hand, a new gen is a new gen when there is content that can only be played on that device, and not the device before it.

However, on the other hand, the idea of a new gen also carries with it some assumption of technical advancement.

So, Switch. Is it a new generation box? On the one hand, yes. Some games can only be played on the Switch and not prior boxes. On the other hand, no. It's not a technical advancement.

That's how we ended up at the position of ditching the concept of generations going forward and only using "Current Consoles" (PS4, Xone, Switch), "Legacy Consoles" (PS3, X360, Wii U), and "Historical Consoles" (Everything else).

Just seems strange to think a PS5 won't play PS4 games, given the development environment. Also seems fairly clear that MS believes it libraries going with you, as is seen in mobile and, well, every other digital content environment I can think of.

I guess PS5 could be it's own generation, having games that can only be played on it and being a technical advancement. But, if nothing else is competing on those same lines, does the fight even matter?

My brain hurts.

Primethius · Jun 21, 2017

D.Lo said:
'International markets' - by which I assume you mean anywhere not Japan, North America and Western Europe (since J/NA/WE do have that infrastructure). So Asia and India?

Asia, India, South America, Eastern Europe - these places are already basically 100% mobile and PC. Consoles do not sell in great numbers in these places and never have, aside from pirate Famicoms etc.

And yes, most business software has essentially migrated to being in your browser on any recent device. I can literally do 100% of what is required for my job on my TV or phone, with no other hardware required. Ten years ago I needed to open an application on a specific type of hardware (Intel) in a specific OS (Windows) to do the same thing. Games moving from being retail toys to being digitally delivered ongoing services (which is how I would describe the majority of Destiny or Splatoon for most users) facilitates this happening for at least a segment of gaming.

I don't think the bit about India and Asia is entirely true. Sony in particular has made pretty big strides in the India/Pakistan region, especially in transitioning away from a gray market economy.

StereoVsn · Jun 21, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
Just seems strange to think a PS5 won't play PS4 games, given the development environment. Also seems fairly clear that MS believes it libraries going with you, as is seen in mobile and, well, every other digital content environment I can think of.

I guess PS5 could be it's own generation, having games that can only be played on it and being a technical advancement. But, if nothing else is competing on those same lines, does the fight even matter?

My brain hurts.

I can't see PS5 not being able to play PS4 games. That would be insanity and a disaster for Sony since Microsoft will kill it with various ads/digs/etc like Sony did to them in 2013.

However I can see some games coming in for PS5 (and later PS5 Pro), mainly from Sony itself. 3rd party publishers will sell games that will run on PS4, Pro and PS5 for a while and it will be like a PC game in that respect with variety of graphical / AI/ CPU settings.

gundamkyoukai · Jun 21, 2017

StereoVsn said:
I can't see PS5 not being able to play PS4 games. That would be insanity and a disaster for Sony since Microsoft will kill it with various ads/digs/etc like Sony did to them in 2013.

However I can see some games coming in for PS5 (and later PS5 Pro), mainly from Sony itself. 3rd party publishers will sell games that will run on PS4, Pro and PS5 for a while and it will be like a PC game in that respect with variety of graphical / AI/ CPU settings.

I feel the cross gen period will depend on how fast the next gen sells.
If they get off to a fast start cross gen should not last more than 1.5 to 2 years .

Nirolak · Jun 21, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
I really don't want to get sucked into the vortex of how generations are derived, because no one wins. It is a pit of despair.

One the one hand, a new gen is a new gen when there is content that can only be played on that device, and not the device before it.

However, on the other hand, the idea of a new gen also carries with it some assumption of technical advancement.

So, Switch. Is it a new generation box? On the one hand, yes. Some games can only be played on the Switch and not prior boxes. On the other hand, no. It's not a technical advancement.

That's how we ended up at the position of ditching the concept of generations going forward and only using "Current Consoles" (PS4, Xone, Switch), "Legacy Consoles" (PS3, X360, Wii U), and "Historical Consoles" (Everything else).

Just seems strange to think a PS5 won't play PS4 games, given the development environment. Also seems fairly clear that MS believes it libraries going with you, as is seen in mobile and, well, every other digital content environment I can think of.

I guess PS5 could be it's own generation, having games that can only be played on it and being a technical advancement. But, if nothing else is competing on those same lines, does the fight even matter?

My brain hurts.

Ha, I totally get your perspective. I guess it just seems more natural from mine because I view the Switch as the successor of the 3DS (that happens to have TV out), and Nintendo home consoles as a dead product line.

Of course, if cross-gen games between PS4/PS5 or XB1/XB2 are literally just the same disc (or download), that does notably blur the lines as opposed to just being regular backwards compatibility.

We're also at the point where it's very clear that games like Anthem or Skull and Bones are going to straddle generations, but conceivably play with each other across those generations, which would be very different from how cross-gen games were handled this time around.

ScaredHitless · Jun 21, 2017

Every time I see an NPD thread I think "who is still buying GTA V?", then the question gets answered for me every time I walk into a Best Buy and see 3 people walk out with copies.

It's absurd how many copies that game has sold

Humdinger · Jun 21, 2017

Primethius said:
Prediction results are based on actual results but data is hidden as said data is not public. That portion is reliable, though obviously based on trust.

I don't understand what you just said.

Let me try again. The estimates are based at least in part on who "wins" the prediction contests, you said (or at least that's what I understood you to say). I'm asking, how do we know who won, who got closest? Where does that information come from?

FinaruDensetsu · Jun 21, 2017

Anderson DL said:
I don't understand what you just said.

Let me try again. The estimates are based at least in part on who "wins" the prediction contests, you said (or at least that's what I understood you to say). I'm asking, how do we know who won, who got closest? Where does that information come from?

People in charge do have access to the actual numbers. They just don't reveal what the exact numbers are. The winner is just the person who's closest.

Primethius · Jun 21, 2017

Anderson DL said:
I don't understand what you just said.

Let me try again. The estimates are based at least in part on who "wins" the prediction contests, you said (or at least that's what I understood you to say). I'm asking, how do we know who won, who got closest? Where does that information come from?

My apologies. Let me attempt to clarify:

Prediction results are based on the actual NPD results. Those results are not publicly available to us but are available to the individual compiling the prediction results.

Welfare · Jun 21, 2017

I can see the next Xbox just being a massive hardware update but with no restrictions on software releases on modern Xbox devices.

So Xbox 4 releases in 2021 but has no "Xbox 4" software. Software transforms into simply Xbox and available to purchase on any modern Xbox device. Xbox Live will be the same across Xbox One and the next Xbox, and the next one etc.

Xbox One and Xbox 4 get the same disc and download for a game, but eventually future releases won't support Xbox One because of the hardware not being able to handle the game. This won't be sudden and will probably take a a number of years after Xbox 4 releases before a lot of titles simply can't run on XB1.

Microsoft focusing on scalable engines and a more PC like approach to development should mean that they really are going away from the generation barrier of "Xbox 360" and "Xbox One" games and moving towards the Steam approach of where games are "Xbox". Hardware will just be positioned as how much you are willing to spend and how much graphics mean to a consumer. This also allows Xbox hardware to move to a more high end product release while having older hardware serve as the cheaper way to enter the ecosystem.

PS5 could be its own bubble where you absolutely must have it to play new games but that doesn't seem like the future we should be sticking with. Breaking software away from specific hardware releases seem to be where the industry wants to go, with GaaS favoring this so that those games can be bought by people on PS5, PS4, PS6, etc.

tenderbrew · Jun 21, 2017

ronaldthump said:
so, um, slightly OT but isn't ROCKSTAR meant to be a mess and horrible people to work for?

if they're selling so many copies of GTAV I don't see why they can't treat their staff nicer.

If working there is a nightmare why would anyone work there?

slavesnyder · Jun 21, 2017

Welfare said:
I can see the next Xbox just being a massive hardware update but with no restrictions on software releases on modern Xbox devices.
(...)

That's a good roundup.
If a company should be interested in this kind of generationless progress it's microsoft. And for consumers it's not such a big change as it copies the phone model. game xy runs on iPhone 6 and upwards, but not on 5 any more. that's also something that's easily to organize on gigital stores. retail could be a problem though as we will have the same annoying textchecking as with PC games (those exist in retail, believe me).
I am not sure if Sony follows, but if not, this could be a difficult moment for the console industry as I am not sure if big third paties would like those two philosophies coexisting.

Humdinger · Jun 21, 2017

FinaruDensetsu said:
People in charge do have access to the actual numbers. They just don't reveal what the exact numbers are. The winner is just the person who's closest.

Primethius said:
My apologies. Let me attempt to clarify:

Prediction results are based on the actual NPD results. Those results are not publicly available to us but are available to the individual compiling the prediction results.

Thanks, appreciate that.

May I ask, Who is "the individual compiling the prediction results"? Or is that secret information? I'm assuming it's secret, since you say that person also has access to NPD results.

What I'm actually imagining is a process something like this (correct me if I'm wrong, which I may be): Mysterious Person #1 has access to the actual NPD data. He/she compares the actual data to the predictions and determines who is closest. He/she then passes that result (i.e., the identity of the person who got closest) to Mysterious Person #2. It then goes through at least one other person's hands before eventually being posted on GAF.

titiklabingapat · Jun 22, 2017

Do people honestly believe that '10 million diehard Nintendo fans' will buy a console on the first few months of a Nintendo console's launch? If that was the case then the Wii U should have been as hard to find as the Switch thru January and February 2013.

The Switch is clearly attracting non-core Nintendo fans as well for it to be still be sold out nearly 4 months out. The Wii U had negative shipments, for chrissake. Same applies to the 3DS.

dragonflys545 · Jun 22, 2017

titiklabingapat said:
Do people honestly believe that '10 million diehard Nintendo fans' will buy a console on the first few months of a Nintendo console's launch? If that was the case then the Wii U should have been as hard to find as the Switch thru January and February 2013.

The Switch is clearly attracting non-core Nintendo fans as well for it to be still be sold out nearly 4 months out. The Wii U had negative shipments, for chrissake. Same applies to the 3DS.

How can you say clearly without any evidence. I can say the same about it only attracting the core fans because none of my friends who had owned a Wii bought a Wii U or the switch.

Hero · Jun 22, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
I really don't want to get sucked into the vortex of how generations are derived, because no one wins. It is a pit of despair.

One the one hand, a new gen is a new gen when there is content that can only be played on that device, and not the device before it.

However, on the other hand, the idea of a new gen also carries with it some assumption of technical advancement.

So, Switch. Is it a new generation box? On the one hand, yes. Some games can only be played on the Switch and not prior boxes. On the other hand, no. It's not a technical advancement.

That's how we ended up at the position of ditching the concept of generations going forward and only using "Current Consoles" (PS4, Xone, Switch), "Legacy Consoles" (PS3, X360, Wii U), and "Historical Consoles" (Everything else).

Just seems strange to think a PS5 won't play PS4 games, given the development environment. Also seems fairly clear that MS believes it libraries going with you, as is seen in mobile and, well, every other digital content environment I can think of.

I guess PS5 could be it's own generation, having games that can only be played on it and being a technical advancement. But, if nothing else is competing on those same lines, does the fight even matter?

My brain hurts.

With MS pushing BC so hard on Xbox One and Windows Store on PC, I think it kind of 'forces' Sony to match that capability on the theoretical but likely Playstation 5. If they don't, it would be a significant competitive advantage to Microsoft on the Xbox Two or Xbox 8K or whatever the hell they're going to call it. And that's a good thing. I want my library of games to carry with me from now on, especially digital titles. I was very conservative with what I bought on PS3 PSN and I'm glad because it upsets me that a lot of the PS1/PS2 classics I bought aren't playable on my PS4.

legend166 · Jun 22, 2017

Theslammer said:
PS4 is at 1914 at less than four years.

The first page of that link has 16 actual games, several of which haven't actually released yet.

John Harker · Jun 22, 2017

Theslammer said:
""

Yeah, while I think having conversations (and reservations, for that matter) are healthy, of course, I think some people just don't know what they're talking about when they talk strictly about sales, sales, sales, and really expose it when talking to someone in the know.

No kidding, haha.
Part of the reason I post significantly less lately. After over 12 years, it wears on you

TwistedFreeze · Jun 22, 2017

dragonflys545 said:
How can you say clearly without any evidence. I can say the same about it only attracting the core fans because none of my friends who had owned a Wii bought a Wii U or the switch.

Because the Wii U flopped horrendously and it's sales fell off a clip a month or so in and it became readily available shortly after launch. The Switch is still selling out and has already done far better than the Wii U in the same down of time so it's more than fair to say that's attracting more than the hardcore Nintendo audience. Unless you can point to another hyped desired system that stopped selling well within a year or so

Also, seeing as the Switch is new and hard to get at the moment, it's not too surprising most gamers don't have it yet

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