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Media Create 04-10 to 04-16
- Thread starter saz
- Start date
It's a tough call really but anything in DS at the moment (see Slime Mori Mori, Children of Mana) seems to have good legs.
I'd expect FF III to do about 750k total, but not as front loaded as a traditional FF game so maybe 400k week 1, 100k w2, 50k w3 etc and some decent legs.
New Mario Bros is a very very tough one. I think 2m is possible, but I don't think we'll see AC / BT numbers as they are just the big thing at the moment. Will prob do around 500k week 1 and have strong legs for the next 3-4 years I should think (or until DS 2 comes out).
Pokemon Diamond and Pearl should sit somewhere between R/S and G./S. Online will help as will the DS success at the moment, and will offset the general decreasing trend of the series nicely.
I also think AC / BTs have a shot at 4m, depending on what kind of legs they have and I can actually see the Brain Trainings outdoing Animal Crossing long term (i.e it will drop off faster while BTs will still be doing 10k a week in a years time).
As I mentioned earlier in the thread, Brain Training has actually seen a large increase since the release of AC and it's sequel and the general large success of the hardware, and I can see this effect continuing throughout the year with games like NSMB and Pokemon actually increasing BT sales as well and keeping them high for a long time yet. Look at how long it took BT to get to 1m and how long to 2m...
I'd expect FF III to do about 750k total, but not as front loaded as a traditional FF game so maybe 400k week 1, 100k w2, 50k w3 etc and some decent legs.
New Mario Bros is a very very tough one. I think 2m is possible, but I don't think we'll see AC / BT numbers as they are just the big thing at the moment. Will prob do around 500k week 1 and have strong legs for the next 3-4 years I should think (or until DS 2 comes out).
Pokemon Diamond and Pearl should sit somewhere between R/S and G./S. Online will help as will the DS success at the moment, and will offset the general decreasing trend of the series nicely.
I also think AC / BTs have a shot at 4m, depending on what kind of legs they have and I can actually see the Brain Trainings outdoing Animal Crossing long term (i.e it will drop off faster while BTs will still be doing 10k a week in a years time).
As I mentioned earlier in the thread, Brain Training has actually seen a large increase since the release of AC and it's sequel and the general large success of the hardware, and I can see this effect continuing throughout the year with games like NSMB and Pokemon actually increasing BT sales as well and keeping them high for a long time yet. Look at how long it took BT to get to 1m and how long to 2m...
PhoenixDark
Banned
ioi said:
Do you think Pokemon Diamond/Pearl will surpass the GBA versions (Ruby/Saphhire)? I'm thinking they can do it. According to Everything or Nothing's hardware numbers, the GBA has sold around 17 million units in Japan.
http://everythingandnothing.org.uk/vg/consworld.php
The DS is already close to half of that. When the next Pokemon games come out, I fully expect the DS sales to further skyrocket. Right now it's clear that many "non gamers" are buying the DS. When Pokemon hits, we'll see another mass exodus of gamers/casual gamers buying the DS in droves.
PhoenixDark said:
I think so.
As I said, I think if Diamond/Pearl was just the latest version on the GBA following R/S much like G/S followed R/G/B then I think we'd see sales continue to fall to around 4m maybe. Because it's on DS and because it's online etc (I think?) I can see it maybe doing 6m. It should track almost exactly the same as R/S and G/S (if released late Nov like they were) so should be interesting to see.
I think DS hardware can hit 12m by the end of the year, so alread over 2/3 of GBA in just over 2 years. Not bad!
And without wishing to start it up again I think seeing games and numbers like this shows just how pointless and insignifcant the "third party" argument is. To be quite honest with you third party sales are dreadful on both DS and PSP. Awful. Brain Training 1+2 have sold more than all third party games on either DS or PSP. The point really is that the DS has the much stronger future, and will therefore be getting more and more 3rd party games in the next couple of years (and presumably stuff that will sell well) while PSP 3rd party support is just going to dry up in Japan. When you've sold over 20m first party games then I think the whole 3rd party debate is redundant.
I'd actually like to call Pokemon Diamond/Pearl beating Gold/Silver due to being online, but I won't until first screenshots are revealed and I know what kind of graphic style they're going to use.
If it looks like Pokemon Ranger but better, I think it'll beat G/S, as I said.
If they make it 3D, it'll probably be hideous and that'll offset the cute appeal to some degree. It would still sell in droves, but probably not much above R/S, if at all.
If they leave it 2D but do it in CG ala Donkey Kong Country or make it cel-shaded or use some other unusual technique (Yoshi's Island look, Paper Mario look, etc.), I have no clue what'll happen.
If it looks like Pokemon Ranger but better, I think it'll beat G/S, as I said.
If they make it 3D, it'll probably be hideous and that'll offset the cute appeal to some degree. It would still sell in droves, but probably not much above R/S, if at all.
If they leave it 2D but do it in CG ala Donkey Kong Country or make it cel-shaded or use some other unusual technique (Yoshi's Island look, Paper Mario look, etc.), I have no clue what'll happen.
I don't know if you intended it, but the phrasing of that sentence makes me want a Sales Prediction Training DS game.ioi said:
Some unofficial news:
- It seems that the initial shipment of Yangus was about 300k and the absorption rate was about 35%. An estimate of 95k sold is given, but that might be first day instead of weekly, although the same report did indicate that there might be a massive pricedrop this weekend for the title due to lower than expected sales and Golden Week coming up.
- Mother 3's initial shipment of 300k seems to have enjoyed an absorption rate of 60-70% on the FIRST DAY of sales. Sounds pretty hot to me. I guess a certain person will have to stop complaining about non-games!
- Initial shipment for Ninety-Nine Nights was 40k, first day absorption rate of 70%, off to a good start.
- It seems that the initial shipment of Yangus was about 300k and the absorption rate was about 35%. An estimate of 95k sold is given, but that might be first day instead of weekly, although the same report did indicate that there might be a massive pricedrop this weekend for the title due to lower than expected sales and Golden Week coming up.
- Mother 3's initial shipment of 300k seems to have enjoyed an absorption rate of 60-70% on the FIRST DAY of sales. Sounds pretty hot to me. I guess a certain person will have to stop complaining about non-games!
- Initial shipment for Ninety-Nine Nights was 40k, first day absorption rate of 70%, off to a good start.
Moor-Angol
Banned
ioi said:
I'm with your opinion, and personally i think BT2 will become the most sold game for DS, its weekly scores are still high, while BT already lowered (even if it has really long legs), so i can imagine to see BT2 still on autumn/winter charts.
The key is the price: 2800 yen that easily becomes 2000-2200yen, makes BT2 the perfect game to buy in bundle with a new DS/DSL.
Anyway, BT legs were really strong, in 3 weeks it will be one years always on chart, i think a similar result only happened with first batch of Pokemon games...
very interesting graphs ioi, thanks.
i think the potential for certain types of games is very high in japan, but the more traditional gaming market is in a terrible state. it's continuing to decline at an alarming rate, which to me says many japanese gamers are truly bored of the majority of current genres.
the games selling very well are the top tier franchises and those people can pick up and play without much effort.
personally i think new super mario bros is going to be huge, because it falls into both these categories. as nintendo has said, they want to go back to why the original smb was so popular.
great news about mother 3, should manage 500-600k total, maybe more. if itoi is willing, mother 4 is a certainty, hopefully it won't be as long coming.
the most surprising thing to me is the amount the original ds is selling. nearly 40k this week is just amazing! in many ways it's more impressive than the ds lite numbers, and speaks volumes about the desirability of the the ds in japan.
i think the potential for certain types of games is very high in japan, but the more traditional gaming market is in a terrible state. it's continuing to decline at an alarming rate, which to me says many japanese gamers are truly bored of the majority of current genres.
the games selling very well are the top tier franchises and those people can pick up and play without much effort.
personally i think new super mario bros is going to be huge, because it falls into both these categories. as nintendo has said, they want to go back to why the original smb was so popular.
great news about mother 3, should manage 500-600k total, maybe more. if itoi is willing, mother 4 is a certainty, hopefully it won't be as long coming.
the most surprising thing to me is the amount the original ds is selling. nearly 40k this week is just amazing! in many ways it's more impressive than the ds lite numbers, and speaks volumes about the desirability of the the ds in japan.
jamesinclair
Banned
Monorojo said:
Id be shocked, SHOCKED if it did over 2,500.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Anyone wonder if the Xbox 360 will have its first top ten game?
Blackcherry
Member
Q: How in hell Animal Crossing became a monster in Japan? It's the Brain Training crowd that buy this game? Did the sales took of after Brain Training?
A Link to the Past
Banned
cvxfreak said:
Did it now, did it?
Blackcherry said:
Here's the same response I give to those who ask the question about Pokémon, Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy:
Because
Blackcherry said:
Animal Crossing has always been big in Japan.
When the N64 was pretty much DEAD, it sold 200k.
When it came out on GC, it sold over 900k. It only makes sense that the type of game it was would become a smash hit on a portable system. Especially with wireless and online play.
Based on little bits of data we have:
1 GBA Mother 3- 290k
2 PS2 Dragon Quest Shounen Yangus- 145k
3 PS2 Final Fantasy XI- 80k
4 NDS Brain Training 2- 70k
5 NDS Brain Training- 55k
6 NDS Animal Crossing- 50k
7 NDS English Training- 45k
8 PS2 Ookami- 40k
9 NDS Legend of Starfi 4- 36k
10 PSP Dragonball Z- 35k
More here: http://www.everythingandnothing.org.uk/forum/thread.php?id=163
Also, maybe a bit premature but looking ahead to next week:
1 PS2 Winning Eleven 10- 435k
2 NDS Tetris DS- 215k
3 NDS Naturo 4- 90k
4 GBA Mother 3- 85k
5 NDS Brain Training 2- 80k
6 NDS Animal Crossing- 70k
7 NDS Brain Training- 65k
8 PS2 Draqon Quest Yangus- 50k
9 NDS English Training- 45k
10 NDS Legend of Starfi 4- 35k
1 GBA Mother 3- 290k
2 PS2 Dragon Quest Shounen Yangus- 145k
3 PS2 Final Fantasy XI- 80k
4 NDS Brain Training 2- 70k
5 NDS Brain Training- 55k
6 NDS Animal Crossing- 50k
7 NDS English Training- 45k
8 PS2 Ookami- 40k
9 NDS Legend of Starfi 4- 36k
10 PSP Dragonball Z- 35k
More here: http://www.everythingandnothing.org.uk/forum/thread.php?id=163
Also, maybe a bit premature but looking ahead to next week:
1 PS2 Winning Eleven 10- 435k
2 NDS Tetris DS- 215k
3 NDS Naturo 4- 90k
4 GBA Mother 3- 85k
5 NDS Brain Training 2- 80k
6 NDS Animal Crossing- 70k
7 NDS Brain Training- 65k
8 PS2 Draqon Quest Yangus- 50k
9 NDS English Training- 45k
10 NDS Legend of Starfi 4- 35k
VultureDude
Member
ioi said:
teris 200,000k plus in japan in a week VS 37,000 in a month in NA
what does it mean?
VultureDude
Member
VultureDude said:
actually, i think i know what it means...
brain training am bomba come next NPD chart...
PhoenixDark
Banned
ioi said:
I'm thinking Okami will sell more than 40,000 copies. Maybe 80,000? To tell the truth, I want the game to sell a billion copies next week.
Teris at 215,000? No way. The game bombed in the US, and I doubt it'll do any better in Japan.
PhoenixDark said:
I have no clue about Okami, haven't heard a lot about it (sales wise) so that one is a pure guess. I'm thinking a mediocre start but some decent legs?
Tetris may be a tad high, I'm being optimistic. I think 150k is a safe bet though, this is DSland and I think it will do better here than in the west. I'm saying 215k cause it could be really big and suprise us all yet.
The main prob with Tetris is price. I saw it here in the UK the other day and thought "woah, it's out already" but then saw the 30 quid price tag and that's just too much. Japan has traditionally been less bothered about price.
I think Tetris will actually sell ok around the world, it was a poor launch but it should do decent numbers for a while... especially if it sees a price drop
PhoenixDark
Banned
Oblivion said:
The price is the reason I refused to buy it. $35 for freaking Tetris? No way. When it's down to $20 I'll get it.
Is Tetris even popular in Japan?
AdmiralViscen
Banned
PhoenixDark said:
It's $30.
marvelharvey
Member
PhoenixDark said:
Think my friends in the UK had to pay around $60 for tetris! That's commitment.
LanceStern
Banned
I doubt NSMB will do 3 million. I actually see it topping to 1.5 - 2 million in Japan.
Now by the end of the DS's lifetime, perhaps it could reach it, but no time soon.
Now by the end of the DS's lifetime, perhaps it could reach it, but no time soon.
Galactic Fork
A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
Wait, FFXII went up from last week? It's not supposed to go up! Don't they read the rules? Did people go to get Dragon Quest and grab the wrong game or something? They just saw the Square Enix log.
LanceStern
Banned
You know I was sitting here looking at charts, and I knew this before but it just hit me
Animal Crossing ist at 2.5 million in Japan and still going on strong.
That is AMAZING..
And I don't think Final Fantasy III will sell that well. Max at 700,000 (which is still good). One because they don't seem to be very popular on a handheld userbase (GameBOy Advance, GameBoy, Wonderswan) and 3rd party sales are OK at best on the DS
Animal Crossing ist at 2.5 million in Japan and still going on strong.
That is AMAZING..
And I don't think Final Fantasy III will sell that well. Max at 700,000 (which is still good). One because they don't seem to be very popular on a handheld userbase (GameBOy Advance, GameBoy, Wonderswan) and 3rd party sales are OK at best on the DS
AdmiralViscen
Banned
Since when is Tetris not worth 30 dollars?
The original was a hit in America too, but that was a long time ago.
mutsu said:
The original was a hit in America too, but that was a long time ago.