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Cheebs · Oct 1, 2006

We are a little over a month till the next election. I think we should have some fun and have the gaffers to take a stab at what they think the election will be in these three areas. It's more fun now than say a week before since it will be much easier to know how it will turn out then. You don't have to be "in the know", just take a wild guess. After the election I'll tally up who came closest in the three areas. Senate, House, and Governers. Here is how it currently stands:

(I include independents and potential independents as Democrats since all currently caucus or will caucus with the Democrats, including Lieberman)

CURRENTY:
Senate
Republican: 55
Democratic: 45

House
Republican: 230
Democratic: 202
[3 Vacant]

Governors
Republican: 28
Democratic: 22

My Prediction:
Senate
Republican: 52
Democratic: 48

House
Republican: 220
Democratic: 215

Governors
Democratic: 28
Republican: 22

Lo-Volt · Oct 1, 2006

U.S. SENATE:
55 Republicans and 45 Democrats with allies before election
51 Republicans and 49 Democrats with allies in next Congress?

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
230 Republicans, 202 Democrats and 3 vacant before election
218 Republicans, 217 Democrats in next Congress?

siamesedreamer · Oct 1, 2006

Senate
49 REP
51 DEM

House
220 DEM
215 REP

Cheebs · Oct 1, 2006

Lo-Volt said:
U.S. SENATE:
55 Republicans and 45 Democrats with allies before election
51 Republicans and 49 Democrats with allies in next Congress?

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
230 Republicans, 202 Democrats and 3 vacant before election
218 Republicans, 217 Democrats in next Congress?

Think Democrats will barely lose eh? Sounds about right. Sadly.

Dan · Oct 1, 2006

At this point I really think the House is all but guaranteed to swing Democrat, with room to spare. Senate will more than likely be tight.

I can't be bothered to figure out a number though.

Diablos · Oct 1, 2006

siamesedreamer said:
Senate
49 REP
51 DEM

House
220 DEM
215 REP

haha, siamesedreamer, you're predicting some mega Democratic pwnage; I'm shocked!

You're ****ing with us, AREN'T YOU?! Yep, you're just sitting back and saying "ahaha, I'll give them some ****in' hope, and they'll say 'gee, siamesedreamer says Democrats will do something right, when does he ever say that? They're going to win for sure!' They're gonna get blindsided, HAHAHA!"

I am not going to make a prediction. I'm HOPEFUL for some major success in the Democratic party (read: at least taking back one of 'em).

Lo-Volt · Oct 1, 2006

Cheebs said:
Think Democrats will barely lose eh? Sounds about right. Sadly.

Well, it's still a big gain. The best outcome is a clean sweep, sure, but if the Democrats can take most of the contested seats, then they have a good chance of mounting a better counter to the GOP's agenda until the next next election. If the GOP majority shrinks to a paper thin number, add some defections on big bills and everything's a big mess.

demon · Oct 1, 2006

Senate
Republican: 1
Democratic: 3
Ditka:46

House
Democratic: 5
Republican: 8
Ditka: 422

AniHawk · Oct 1, 2006

Please for the love of god, let Californians elect someone else than an old actor for governor. Please, please please.

Diablos · Oct 1, 2006

demon said:
Senate
Republican: 1
Democratic: 3
Ditka:46

House
Democratic: 5
Republican: 8
Ditka: 422

:lol

Triumph · Oct 1, 2006

Any Democratic "gains" shy of taking over one of the houses is useless. They might as well have not won any seats if they're not going to get a majority. Otherwise it's just going to be business as usual for another two years.

My personal prediction? Democratic failure. Sure they'll pick up a few seats here and there, but not enough to make a difference in either house. People will continue to criticize Dems for not having "any ideas or whatever", completely ignoring the fact that the way things are, the Dems are pretty much just useless bystanders without a majority in either house. Awesome.

el jacko · Oct 1, 2006

Cheebs said:
Think Democrats will barely lose eh? Sounds about right. Sadly.

It's better for the Dems if they lose by a little now since whichever party wins will only win by a little (meaning little actual control of the house) but will take all the blame for the shit in the next two years.

If the Dems lose by a little bit now, then the GOP will take the heat for all the (inevitable) inactivity/dumb congressional shit these next two years allowing a full Dem sweep in '08. Lose the battle, win the war.

ToxicAdam · Oct 1, 2006

Interviewer: What's your prediction for the fight?
Clubber Lang: My prediction?
Interviewer: Yes, your prediction.
[Clubber looks into camera]
Clubber Lang: Pain!

(for the Republicans)

Vic · Oct 1, 2006

Canada taking over?

Diablos · Oct 1, 2006

UNITED STATES OF CANADA vs. JESUSLAND 2006

Vic · Oct 1, 2006

no seriously, we're preparing the army as we speak (or write)

WrathOfOtaibah · Oct 1, 2006

Senate: 50/50.

Representatives: 220/218 (R/D)

I have very little faith in a blue sweep because the Democrats are failing to capitalize on anything other than Iraq failure. Lets be serious, if this didn't work for them in 2004, why in God's name will it work in 2006? Because the approval ratings are lower? Because GOP candidates are moving from Bush? This might be fine for a slow left shift but it does **** all to the Democrats.

Taking the seats from guys like Santorum and DeLay are fine but pointless. Some other GOP member with oil ties will just step in. These policies are laid out by think tanks and special interest groups. Another GOP member will be glad to take the helm. So getting these guys out is no different than killing the #2 guy in Al-Qaeda. Eventually, a new #2 will step in. Kill him and then another #2 will take place. Same situation here.

I see very little plans that work and with the swing guys, I took the time to check them all. In 1994, the GOP crushed the Democrats because they had a watertight plan headed by Newt Gingrich. In 2006, we have the anti-Bush, anti-Iraq vote. Holy shit.

Its why I will probably vote for a neither Democrat or Republican this fall.

Incognito · Oct 1, 2006

I made some predictions a few weeks ago, but I can't find 'em right now. Anyway, I said that the Democrats would regain control of both the House and Senate, and I stand by it. I think it was something along the lines of 20+ House pickups and 6-7 Senate seats. The recent scandal involving the GOP leadership coddling and protecting a pedophile in their own ranks surely won't help the GOTV.

Triumph · Oct 1, 2006

Incognito said:
I made some predictions a few weeks ago, but I can't find 'em right now. Anyway, I said that the Democrats would regain control of both the House and Senate, and I stand by it. I think it was something along the lines of 20+ House pickups and 6-7 Senate seats. The recent scandal involving the GOP leadership coddling and protecting a pedophile in their own ranks surely won't help the GOTV.

I'll bet you $100 they don't take back both houses. These are the Democrats we're talking about here, for the love of Christ.

siamesedreamer · Oct 1, 2006

Diablos said:
haha, siamesedreamer, you're predicting some mega Democratic pwnage; I'm shocked!

You're ****ing with us, AREN'T YOU?! Yep, you're just sitting back and saying "ahaha, I'll give them some ****in' hope, and they'll say 'gee, siamesedreamer says Democrats will do something right, when does he ever say that? They're going to win for sure!' They're gonna get blindsided, HAHAHA!"

Naw man, I'm serious. I think the House is a lock for the DEMs. The Senate may get split, but I think the DEMs will actually win 6 to put them at 51.

Make no mistake, the upcoming week is going to be pure hell for Bush and the REPs. Woodward is going to be making his rounds with his new book and its going to be the #1 story all week. I think the DEMs will get a huge boost.

Incognito · Oct 1, 2006

I think siames has been reading war and piece by Laura Rozen, where an email sent to her by "A Hill Veteran" read as so...

jk, siames.

When historians look back on the 2006 midterms and the Democratic sweep of both the House and Senate, they will look back on Friday, September 29th as the day that sealed the GOP's fate:

-- The Mark Foley resignation is huge. It turns a safe GOP seat into a seat that is now a likely Democratic pickup, and will demand at a minimum party resources that Ken Mehlman would have wanted to deploy elsewhere. You take the Foley seat and add it to the Delay, Ney, and Kolbe seats, those are four seats where GOP incompetence and scandal has converted from sure GOP seats to likely Dem pickups (the Kolbe seat is where Jim Kolbe is retiring and a KKK symphathizer is the GOP nominee).

More importantly, as unfair as it is, this scandal will resonate along the lines of the House banking scandal and free ice deliveries that doomed the Dems in 1994. The party of family values had a Member in its leadership who was inveighing against Internet porn at day, but using it to communicate with minors at night. This is bad, bad, bad for the GOP image;

-- The Woodward book will suck up all the oxygen on TV and talk radio for the next week; a whole week of "free media" for the Dem argument that the Bushies have irrevocably screwed up Iraq; any GOP focus on terrorism next week will be lost;

-- Finally, rumors tonight (reported on NBC News) of a possible military coup in Baghdad, prompting the sudden imposition of a citywide curfew.

I was retaining skepticism on Dem prospects until today. But this is it -- the GOP is in for a shellacking on November 7th.

Greenpanda · Oct 1, 2006

ah, dammit, I was going to make this thread and never got around to it

ah, well, ye snooze, ye lose!

anyway,

Senate: 54 R, 46 D (counting Dem-caucusing independents)
House: 223 R, 212 D
Governorships: 26 D, 24 R

I'll admit to just throwing that House number out there; I didn't crunch the numbers on a race-by-race basis. (I did for the others.)

typhonsentra · Oct 1, 2006

If Republicans make more gains in both the house and senate this time around, I'll probably give up.

Lo-Volt · Oct 1, 2006

Finally, rumors tonight (reported on NBC News) of a possible military coup in Baghdad, prompting the sudden imposition of a citywide curfew.

WHAT?

Incognito · Oct 1, 2006

Lo-Volt said:
WHAT?

Hey, when you bring the fight to the bad guy, it stands to reason that the bad guys would fight back!!!

ronito · Oct 1, 2006

I don't know. Why don't you tell me how many voting districts have Diebold machines first? Then I'll tell you what elections the republicans will win.

Lo-Volt · Oct 1, 2006

Incognito said:
Hey, when you bring the fight to the bad guy, it stands to reason that the bad guys would fight back!!!

I'm sorry, but I checked MSNBC for this story and the rumor discussed in their web article was for a terror wave. So can you provide some proof that NBC reported on a rumored coup for me?

siamesedreamer · Oct 1, 2006

-- Finally, rumors tonight (reported on NBC News) of a possible military coup in Baghdad, prompting the sudden imposition of a citywide curfew.

This is flat out wrong........or at least a very bad interpretation of the NBC News report.

The reporter did talk about the coup during his commentary of the curfew. But, all he said was that there had been meetings in Jordan, Syria, and Egypt about planning a coup. However, it never got past the planning stages. It was pretty clear that the reporter was not equating the curfew to protecting against a coup.

siamesedreamer · Oct 1, 2006

The curfew was because of a suspected plot to attack inside the Green Zone.

MSNBC

Also, in that link click on the Richard Engel video where he talks about the coup. Like I said before, the military held meetings in Jordan and Lebenon, but it never got past the planning stage.

Dan · Oct 1, 2006

ronito said:
I don't know. Why don't you tell me how many voting districts have Diebold machines first? Then I'll tell you what elections the republicans will win.

SHIT.

Tamanon · Oct 1, 2006

I predict one party will get a marginal control of either one or both houses.

I predict nonthing will change in the actual government itself.

Cheebs · Oct 1, 2006

Greenpanda said:
ah, dammit, I was going to make this thread and never got around to it ah, well, ye snooze,
Governorships: 26 D, 24 R

As it stands I don't think its possible for Democrats to gain only one governorship. Mass. and Ohio are 100% locks for democrat take over.

Crisis · Oct 1, 2006

If the Democrats win, Bush will just declare all Democrats to be enemy combatants.

Lo-Volt · Oct 1, 2006

Cheebs said:
As it stands I don't think its possible for Democrats to gain only one governorship. Mass. and Ohio are 100% locks for democrat take over.

Don't forget New York.

Nerevar · Oct 1, 2006

Cheebs said:
As it stands I don't think its possible for Democrats to gain only one governorship. Mass. and Ohio are 100% locks for democrat take over.

Mass. is definitely not 100% anything. Deval has all the momentum, but Healy just started her campaign, and Romney was widely liked across Mass with independents. She can ride his coattails if she plays it right.

Cheebs · Oct 1, 2006

Nerevar said:
Mass. is definitely not 100% anything. Deval has all the momentum, but Healy just started her campaign, and Romney was widely liked across Mass with independents. She can ride his coattails if she plays it right.

Deval has a 39% lead as of 9/22. Thirty Nine! You can't make up 39% points in a month.

Greenpanda · Oct 1, 2006

Cheebs said:
As it stands I don't think its possible for Democrats to gain only one governorship. Mass. and Ohio are 100% locks for democrat take over.

Er, I defnitely agree (and don't forget NY as a 110% lock). Sorry for being confused here, but were you refuting my prediction? Because I predicted the Dems gaining a net of four governorships (28 R/22 D -> 26 D/24 R).

ToxicAdam · Oct 1, 2006

Cheebs said:
As it stands I don't think its possible for Democrats to gain only one governorship. Mass. and Ohio are 100% locks for democrat take over.

Even I'm voting Democrat (Strickland) in Ohio, to tell you where the mood is.

White Man · Oct 1, 2006

ronito said:
I don't know. Why don't you tell me how many voting districts have Diebold machines first? Then I'll tell you what elections the republicans will win.

Yup, Democrats won't be winning any of the close races when Diebold machines are involved, that's a guarantee.

bjork · Oct 1, 2006

My prediction: 1.5 yrs of wasted time leading up to 2008 elections.

2008, President Jesse Ventura starts bitchslapping America back into shape. He tells the Repubs to get their heads out of their asses and quit sucking off big business, and he tells Dems to quit being a bunch of pussyass crybabies.

Then he give Fidel Castro a brainbuster on live television, and Cuban cigars are no longer illegal here. It's a win-win-win

"Vote for me in 2008 and I will not only fix America, but I will make the 2009 DC2 launch a reality. BELIEVE."

White Man · Oct 1, 2006

bjork said:
My prediction: 1.5 yrs of wasted time leading up to 2008 elections.

2008, President Jesse Ventura starts bitchslapping America back into shape. He tells the Repubs to get their heads out of their asses and quit sucking off big business, and he tells Dems to quit being a bunch of pussyass crybabies.

Then he give Fidel Castro a brainbuster on live television, and Cuban cigars are no longer illegal here. It's a win-win-win

"Vote for me in 2008 and I will not only fix America, but I will make the 2009 DC2 launch a reality. BELIEVE."

Please tell me there is a Vice President Nugent in this scenario. Please.

bjork · Oct 1, 2006

White Man said:
Please tell me there is a Vice President Nugent in this scenario. Please.

:lol

Guarantee you that'd make for the best political press conferences and public addresses ever

Chairman Yang · Oct 1, 2006

I think evil will win.

Incognito · Oct 1, 2006

I don't think I have tell you about trends...

Mason-Dixon: Montana
9/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/22-24 results)

Burns (R) 40 (42)
Tester (D) 47 (45)

Favorability ratings

Burns
Favorable 36 (35)
Unfavorable 45 (41)

Tester
Favorable 48 (28)
Unfavorable 26 (10)

Mason-Dixon: Ohio
9/25-27. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/24-26 results)

DeWine (R) 43 (47)
Brown (D) 45 (36)

Favorability ratings

DeWine
Favorable 41 (41)
Unfavorable 33 (18)

Brown
Favorable 39 (30)
Unfavorable 22 (13)

Mason-Dixon: Tennessee

9/25-27. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/17-19 results)

Corker (R) 42 (49)
Ford (D) 43 (36)

Favorability ratings

Corker
Favorable 38 (37)
Unfavorable 35 (16)

Ford
Favorable 44 (35)
Unfavorable 30 (27)

Really liking the trend on the Tennessee race.

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