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Steven Kent on NextGen: Nintendo is a drunk, Sony is a screwup, MS will win Christmas

ethelred

Member
Code:
272,000	158,000	249,000
299,000	150,000	161,000
273,000	184,000	192,000
206,995	138,427	295,381
231,616	145,930	220,877
312,000	593,000	277,000
241,000	377,000	206,000
262,000	278,000	204,000
306,517	403,435	259,458

So... no offense, but where's this no-brainer? Where's this whomping that Microsoft's going to do?
 

Luckyman

Banned
My biggest problem with PlayStation 3 is not the $600 price, which is frankly more reasonable than the $250 Nintendo is charging for Wii, when you consider what you get for your money.

Ouch.
 

Speevy

Banned
ethelred said:
Everything we're looking at so far suggests that the PS2 (Sony) and the DS (Nintendo) are going to be the big winners this holiday. What in the 360's performance leads us to think it'll be outselling these two?


Does MS have to outsell the PS2 and DS to be the next-gen winner this holiday?
 

Brimstone

my reputation is Shadowruined
His analysis is very reasonable.


His point about the Wii and the danger running out of ideas to use the controller is spot on. I think even Peter Moore mentioned something along those lines. If Nintendo fails to deliver compelling content that takes advantage of the Wiimote, software sales are going to stagnate and the general perception of the platform will sour.


As far as Sony goes, despite all the things they have managed to totally botch, they can still compete for first place. If Microsoft would have handled things like Sony has done, their X-Box platform strategy would've melted down.
 

Zeed

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Isn't this the same guy who said the PSP would own the DS?
Assclown status confirmed.

Lock this shit down, or you might as well make a new thread every time any random forum tard makes a halfassed prediction about next-gen citing blatantly incorrect figures as their "proof".
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
elostyle said:
There is nothing insightful in there whatsoever. He cites points that have been reiterated here on gaf at least a thousand times - albeit formulates them nicer and more coherent. Not a surprise given his profession.

He couldn't be any more wrong on the state nintendo is in and how they approach the wii release. Same for sony with blu ray.

Uninformed, uninsightful armchair analysis.


First time I've agree you with in GAF history. Now this guy must be wrong.
 

Speevy

Banned
ethelred said:
Code:
272,000	158,000	249,000
299,000	150,000	161,000
273,000	184,000	192,000
206,995	138,427	295,381
231,616	145,930	220,877
312,000	593,000	277,000
241,000	377,000	206,000
262,000	278,000	204,000
306,517	403,435	259,458

So... no offense, but where's this no-brainer? Where's this whomping that Microsoft's going to do?


Assuming MS sells a number equal to the % they've sold higher than the Xbox this year for the rest of the year, yeah, they're going to beat the Wii and PS3.
 

ethelred

Member
Speevy said:
Does MS have to outsell the PS2 and DS to be the next-gen winner this holiday?

Maybe, maybe not -- but that's not what he said. His exact words were, "First a no-brainer--Microsoft will womp everyone this Christmas."

And I'm sorry, but that's not going to happen.

"Next-gen winner for the holiday?" If the PS2 keeps outselling the 360 for this holiday, then this holiday isn't going to mean a whole lot for the 360 -- except that for two Christmasses in a row, the system couldn't make a dent against last-gen. And that's not a promising thing.
 

Terrell

Member
zon said:
I wonder how many fanboys that will throw a fit because of this sentence. :lol
I don't see why, any Nintendo fan would heartily admit that Nintendo, especially in the Yamauchi reign, kicked them around. The metaphor is pretty sound in theory, but for the sake of complete accuracy, I'd like to reword it:

Nintendo is that family with the alcoholic father; even when the parents divorce and the kids get a new stepfather, the kids refuse to believe that they can trust him because of what they've been through before.
 

VALIS

Member
Aisenherz said:
What a piece of crap. And so is he.
BS

Steven L. Kent is the author of The Clone Republic, The Ultimate History of Video Games, and the upcoming children’s book Melanie Medusa Madison.

Born in California and raised in Hawaii, Kent served as a missionary for the LDS Church between the years of 1979 and 1981. During that time, he worked as a Spanish-speaking missionary serving migrant farm workers in southern Idaho.

While Kent earned a Bachelor’s degree in journalism and a master’s degree in communications from Brigham Young University, he claims that his most important education came from life.

Many of the lessons he learned from the Mexican field workers in Idaho have appeared in his stories. Later, from 1986 through 1988, Kent worked as a telemarketer selling TV Guide and Inc. Magazine. His years on the phone helped him develop an ear for speech patterns that has been well-reflected in dialog in his stories.

As a boy growing up in Honolulu in the 1960s, Kent developed a unique perspective. He spent hours torch fishing and skin diving. He tried his hand at surfing and boxing. All of these interests have worked their way into his writing.

In 1987, Kent reviewed the Stephen King novels Misery and The Eyes of the Dragon for the Seattle Times. A diehard Stephen King fan, Kent later admitted that he pitched the reviews to the Times so that he could afford to buy the books.

In 1993, upon returning to Seattle after a five-year absence, Kent pitched a review of “virtual haunted houses” for the Halloween issue of the Seattle Times. He reviewed the games The Seventh Guest, Alone in the Dark, and Legacy. Not only did this review land Kent three free PC games, it started him on a new career path.

By the middle of 1994, when Kent found himself laid off from his job at a PR agency, he became a full-time freelance journalist. He wrote monthly pieces for the Seattle Times along with regular features and reviews for Electronic Games, CD Rom Today, ComputerLife, and NautilusCD. In later years, he would write for American Heritage, Parade, USA Today, the Chicago Tribune and many other publications. He wrote regular columns for MSNBC, Next Generation, the Japan Times, and the Los Angeles Times Syndicate.

In 2000, Kent self-published The First Quarter: A 25-year History of Video Games. That book was later purchased and re-published as The Ultimate History of Video Games by the Prima, Three River Press, and Crown divisions of Random House.

During his career as a games journalist, Kent wrote the entries on video games for Encarta and the Encyclopedia Americana. At the invitation of Senator Joseph Lieberman, Kent has spoken at the annual Report Card on Video Game Violence in Washington D.C.

In 2005, Kent announced his semi-retirement from video games so that he could concentrate on writing novels. Though he still writes a monthly column for Boy’s Life, he has mostly concentrated his efforts on writing novels since that time. His first efforts in science fiction, The Clone Republic and Rogue Clone were published by Ace Book in 2006.

What's your big achievement in life, fella? Third place in varsity track? How about you SantaC? M3wThr33? **** you childish peckernecks. Goddamn, this forum has fallen into the toilet.
 

Speevy

Banned
And I'm sorry, but that's not going to happen.

Well that's like if the GBA outsells the PSP but the PSP kills the DS. Nobody cares, because what's coming out now is important.

Once the PS3 is out, no one on this forum should give a crap what the PS2 outsells.
 

Alien Bob

taken advantage of my ass

Zeed

Banned
VALIS said:
What's your big achievement in life, fella? Third place in varsity track? How about you SantaC? M3wThr33? **** you childish peckernecks. Goddamn, this forum has fallen into the toilet.
Hello Steven Kent, welcome to the forums.
 
argon said:
Nintendo will have millions of consoles out before the end of the year, so he's embarrassed himself there.

I think I'd be more embarassed about this:

Steve Kent said:
Do you remember laserdisc? Those were the LP-sized movie discs that came out in the seventies. Audiofiles loved 'em because they had a clearer picture than VHS.
 

elostyle

Never forget! I'm Dumb!
VALIS said:
What's your big achievement in life, fella? Third place in varsity track? How about you SantaC? M3wThr33? **** you childish peckernecks. Goddamn, this forum has fallen into the toilet.
Sorry, no disrespect to the person but this seems like an excuse to post the cute analogies he dreamed up.
 

Oldschoolgamer

The physical form of blasphemy
VALIS said:
What's your big achievement in life, fella? Third place in varsity track? How about you SantaC? M3wThr33? **** you childish peckernecks. Goddamn, this forum has fallen into the toilet.

And that has jack to do with his bs analysis.
 

Mrbob

Member
Deku said:
Well Nintendo's target is 4 million shipped by Dec 31, 2006. NA will get about a million for launch, and maybe a 500k~1,000k restock in december. That's 2 million maximum out of the 4 million world wide shipments. They will still need to supply Europe and Japan. If NA gobbles up 2 million, its only 1 million per territory. That's probably on the high end for NA.

It's probably going to break down to 1.5 million NA, 1.5 million Japan and 1 million Europe ROTW.

1.5~ 2million Wiis in NA this year is a great number, but I think MS will have a lot more units than that, and there will be a lot more DS in inventory as well.

Nintendo has already gone on record and said North America is getting the bulk of Wii shipments for the holiday season. Which means I expect 2 million to NA, perhaps a little more. I can see 2 millon NA, 1.2 million Japan, 800K Europe shaking out for shipments.
 

Speevy

Banned
I think this holiday will really show how strong of an interest there is for the Wii.

If the first NPD month is over a million, Nintendo should be very pleased.
 

Speevy

Banned
:lol :lol :lol

I thought you guys were laughing because he spelled audiophiles wrong until I read it again.
 

Luckett_X

Banned
woah, this thread is ferocious! Thats it fellas. bite him! bite him harder, i want to see you rip flesh from bone! Protect the ones you love, obedient guard dogs!
 

elostyle

Never forget! I'm Dumb!
Hunter D said:
lol this thread is gold. A lot of you seem to be shaken up by is predictions.
It's people from all sides, so that should tell you something. Even mckmas and I united over this! It's not so much the predictions but how he got to them.
 
Well if Blu-Ray does fail then I think Sony loses alot of justification for the $600 price-tag. So he does have a good point there.

The Wii could very well have a dry-spell of content in 2007 (Spring-Summer) and it could hurt the potencial for good 3rd party support.

The 360 does have the most units this holiday, so it could sell more then the other consoles, and it already has a great 2007 line-up... I would say the best.

But I don't know if I agree with him about the 360 womping this holiday. I see it doing good, but I think the Wii will have the most sales... just because its Christmas, its cheap, its Zelda, and its Nintendo.
 

CrapSandwich

former Navy SEAL
I've never thought much of his writing. He always struck me as a dilettante, much like most of us forum-goers, giving an opinion based on a few surface level facts.
 

Dilbert

Member
elostyle said:
It's not so much the predictions but how he got to them.
Just out of curiosity:

1) What IS the right way to come up with predictions?

2) What are the criteria for being a "real" analyst, instead of an "armchair" analyst?
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Doom_Bringer said:
Wii will fail because Nintendo will run out of ideas for makings games?
PS3 will fail because of Blu Ray?

:lol Wow


Best post in this thread.
 
VALIS said:
What's your big achievement in life, fella? Third place in varsity track? How about you SantaC? M3wThr33? **** you childish peckernecks. Goddamn, this forum has fallen into the toilet.
IAWTP

This thread is rife with stupid hating and personal insults. From what I read he makes his points and backs them up with direct examples. He may have gotten the Wii numbers wrong but the point that MS will have more consoles on the shelves then Nintendo or Sony still holds true.

:shrugs:

What ever, let the crying, hating and general stupidity continue. It's a good read and it helps when it comes to learning the personalities of this forum.
 

tedtropy

$50/hour, but no kissing on the lips and colors must be pre-separated
Steven Kent is the John C. Dvorak of gaming journalism.
 

Zeed

Banned
-jinx- said:
Just out of curiosity:

1) What IS the right way to come up with predictions?

2) What are the criteria for being a "real" analyst, instead of an "armchair" analyst?
1) There may be varying opinions on this, but one thing I think everyone can agree one is knowing the damn facts. This guy has based his predictions on false data, and generally doesn't appear to know what the hell he's talking about (audiofiles lol).

2) I define an armchair analyst as someone who sits down at the computer, spends a few minutes gathering information readily available on other sites and forums, then sloppily mashes it together while putting an opinionated spin on it. I'd expect a "real" analyst to do his homework properly beforehand and not to appear completely clueless the minute a technical term or numerical figure appears. He makes so many baseless assumptions that it blows the mind (Nintendo gonna run out of ideas fer games M I RITE).
 

elostyle

Never forget! I'm Dumb!
-jinx- said:
Just out of curiosity:

1) What IS the right way to come up with predictions?

2) What are the criteria for being a "real" analyst, instead of an "armchair" analyst?
1) A lot of his reasoning suggests that he is not quite up to date on the facts. I don't know what the right way is but that this is not.

2) I'm not sure on this either, but a blogpost wouldn't quite fit the "real" category no matter the criteria. Either way, the facts would suggest that this is a rather casual opinion piece. Like something that gets posted here by people casually discussing their personal predictions.

I mean, sticking to their guns with the DS? Come on. In the context of videogame this is about as far away from "sticking to their guns" as you can get - short of the virtual boy.

The way blu ray is introduced is unpreceded and warrants more than a loose comparsion with other sony formats.

Nintendo is developing and funding more games than ever before with a high volume of new IPs and game concepts. Can one seriously expect them to run out of ideas after six months with the DS as the most recent point of reference? I mean, why would one in this particular context reference the virtual boy from XX years ago but not the DS? A lot of the nintendo related paragraph reads a lot like his article about what nintendo needs to do from before the PSP came out. That just suggests to me that he may not be entirely up to date anymore.

this is just my armchair analysis of his analysis though
 
Amir0x said:
i think this holiday will show that launch allocations always sell out
I don't think this is true. Before the 360, I don't remember there being any launch sell-outs since the PS2. The GC, Xbox, PSP, and DS (I think) didn't sell out.

PS3 is certain to sell out, but the Wii is going to be in such abundant supply that it could be a total success and still not sell out.
 
I wouldn't be entirely suprised if the Wii supply numbers at launch are actually alot less then what Nintendo is saying. I just have a feeling that Nintendo is going to hold back some units to create more demand... and to get some media attention.

The PS3 should do okay this holiday, but I defiantly think the high price tag is going to create some negative buzz exspecially when the media starts reporting on broken units.

The 360 is garaunteed to atleast sell about 1.5 million this holiday. I don't think they will reach their 10 million, but if they do, then it will be because of Gears of War.

Microsoft seriously needs to get Gears in the demo kiosks, and they need to be advertising the 360 alot this holiday. If Gears gets awesome reviews, and its being heavily advertised, then I think alot of frustrated PS3 owners (who didn't get their console) will pick one up. No body wants to go home empty handed.
 

M3wThr33

Banned
elostyle said:
1) A lot of his reasoning suggests that he is not quite up to date on the facts. I don't know what the right way is but that this is not.

2) I'm not sure on this either, but a blogpost wouldn't quite fit the "real" category no matter the criteria. Either way, the facts would suggest that this is a rather casual opinion piece. Like something that gets posted here by people casually discussing their personal predictions.

I mean, sticking to their guns with the DS? Come on. In the context of videogame this is about as far away from "sticking to their guns" as you can get - short of the virtual boy.

The way blu ray is introduced is unpreceded and warrants more than a loose comparsion with other sony formats.

Nintendo is developing and funding more games than ever before with a high volume of new IPs and game concepts. Can one seriously expect them to run out of ideas after six months with the DS as the most recent point of reference? I mean, why would one in this particular context reference the virtual boy from XX years ago but not the DS? A lot of the nintendo related paragraph reads a lot like his article about what nintendo needs to do from before the PSP came out. That just suggests to me that he may not be entirely up to date anymore.

this is just my armchair analysis of his analysis though

One of the things that bothered me is listing of Memory Stick along side the other "failed" formats, considering they're still in use as easily the second most popular flash card, next to SD and it's iterations.
 

StRaNgE

Banned
Alien Bob said:
For a guy who supposedly wrote "great books" he sure sounds like a 15 year old forum tard


yep, agree. i thought it was a joke post. seemed a bit to slow minded to be real.
 
Wow, the Sony Defense Force is out in full force for this thread. :lol

It's true that he doesn't have any inside information that the rest of us might not know, but these are his opinions based on observing the video gaming industry for over a decade. Is it really so outrageous to think MS is going to clean house this Xmas in the US??
 
So you're all going crazy over someone stating the obvious?

-Microsoft will have the most nextgen units on sale this holiday, and could possibly maintain or widen their lead in that market.
-Nintendo is banking on controller innovation over graphical innovation, but needs the games the back it up or runs the danger of being too gimmicky.
-Sony is betting the farm on Blue Ray, an unproven medium which possibly could fail.

This is a well thought out opinion piece from a totally reasonable perspective. Read the other things on his blog, he seems very fair and very console agnostic, and admits when he's being otherwise. Calling for this to be locked, or dismissing all of his analysis because one piece of it offends you [and clearly, some of you are very offended] just exposes your personal insecurities, and you biases. If only the "forum tards" were this even handed and reasoned.. but then again, what would be the fun in that, right?
 

White Man

Member
Amir0x said:
i think this holiday will show that launch allocations always sell out

Yup, I don't know why people get their underwear in a knot. PS3 and Wii will sell every unit they put on the market.
 
ethelred said:
Maybe, maybe not -- but that's not what he said. His exact words were, "First a no-brainer--Microsoft will womp everyone this Christmas."

And I'm sorry, but that's not going to happen.

"Next-gen winner for the holiday?" If the PS2 keeps outselling the 360 for this holiday, then this holiday isn't going to mean a whole lot for the 360 -- except that for two Christmasses in a row, the system couldn't make a dent against last-gen. And that's not a promising thing.
From the context of the rest of his editorial, it is pretty obvious he was talking about who the winner would be among the next gen home consoles, meaning between Wii, 360 and PS3, not units like DS, PSP, or PS2.

Is anyone really paying attention to how much PS2 sells this Xmas? The race EVERYONE is watching is sales among the 3 next gen consoles, which is what his whole editorial was about.
 
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