GDDR5 and DDR3 have approximately the same latency on a time unit (nanoseconds) basis. However since GDDR5 is clocked much higher, the latency is more cycles. The chips themselves are physically not much different in terms of physical and electrical properties. Whoever says GDDR5 is high latency is mainly measuring the latency of the memory controller.
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PS4 initial costing analysis [Updated]
- Thread starter zomgbbqftw
- Start date
iamshadowlark
Banned
The latency stuff is nothing more than FUD IMO. I'm guessing the only reason MS even went with DDR3 is because of the windows based OS. MS could've easily gone with another gddr only console like it did current gen.
dragonbane
Member
Which is nonsensical and not true.
Yep CPU is so much more important next gen that's why both consoles have a crappy low end CPU. Awesome! Latency!!
Too bad Microsoft wasn't that forwarding thinking. Those latency I tell ya.
Too bad Microsoft wasn't that forwarding thinking. Those latency I tell ya.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Started work on the revision today. Early indications - we overshot by a significant amount in the initial analysis and Sony save around $17 off the BoM by not including the Eye, MS could save 4x that amount if they didn't include Kinect.
The guy we sent to E3 is writing his hardware impressions report having talked seen it and talked to Sony experts about it.
GDDR5 costs are the biggest overshoot, and we have preliminary yield estimates for the PS4 APU from a contact in the semi-conductors industry and they are a bit higher than we estimated in the initial analysis also. We have also revised the APU die size downwards slightly so with the higher yield estimate and lower die size there will be more dice per wafer, lowering the costs slightly for that too.
All in all I could see Sony shipping the box at break even in Europe and only for a slight loss in the US.
We'll probably have the detailed breakdown done by the middle of next week.
The guy we sent to E3 is writing his hardware impressions report having talked seen it and talked to Sony experts about it.
GDDR5 costs are the biggest overshoot, and we have preliminary yield estimates for the PS4 APU from a contact in the semi-conductors industry and they are a bit higher than we estimated in the initial analysis also. We have also revised the APU die size downwards slightly so with the higher yield estimate and lower die size there will be more dice per wafer, lowering the costs slightly for that too.
All in all I could see Sony shipping the box at break even in Europe and only for a slight loss in the US.
We'll probably have the detailed breakdown done by the middle of next week.
Wolves Evolve
Member
Totally crazy if true. A main Sony console being even close to launch is massive for them.
Jezbollah
Member
And caching pretty much undercuts any real disadvantage to higher latency. Now if you get frequent cache misses then you might have a problem, but then if that's the case it's time to tidy up that code.
Don't get me wrong from what I understand Nvidia have gotten nice results with lots of low latency caches on their GPU's so even with GPU workloads, it'd be ideal to have low latency high bandwidth memory but if you have to choose you go for bandwidth every time because both the CPU and GPU have caches to compensate for high latency.
Patcher mentioned after E3 on GT interview that he thinks Sony spends $325 on box and sells it to retailers for $375.
th4tguy
Member
MS went with DDR3 because of the time at which they locked down 8gigs as the amount they were going for. Early on MS decided on the media functionality they were going to incorporate into the system. Because of this they determined they would need a large amount of ram in the system and 8gigs was the amount they decided on. When they locked this down, DDR3 memory was really the best option as GDDR5 wasn't being produced in large enough sizes to accommodate 8gigs.
shinra-bansho
Member
Wow.
Are you factoring in a retail margin?
Even then, that's some impressive engineering.
Manmademan
Member
I think retail margin on systems is pretty much zero- or single digit dollar amounts. This was true for the PS2 at launch, not sure how much things have changed.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Yes. ~5% margin from the $399, 330 and £290 price points. The other difference between PS3 and PS4 is that Europe now has a 0% tariff on technology as mandated by the WTO compared to a ~5% tariff on technology products back in 2006 that would have come out of Sony's margin because of the fixed RRP in Europe.
shinra-bansho
Member
Ah, ok. Remarkable. I still can't understand how the Wii U was sold at a loss at launch, even with the strong yen. Also, to clarify though you mean $399, 399 and £329 pricepoints?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
40nm.
No, I meant those points, they are the prices without VAT on which wholesale pricing is based. EU prices are advertised including VAT.
Good yields? Lower Yen? No EU tariff? GDDR5 not as expensive? MS aiming for its foot shooting its whole lower body off while Nintedo drops the ball? They might be profitable (in their strongest market, even) while cheaper than Xbox and just a bit more expensive than the Wii-U people actually buy?
The stars seem to be really aligning for Sony, is Kaz some crazy witchdoctor or what.
The stars seem to be really aligning for Sony, is Kaz some crazy witchdoctor or what.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Truly amazing work by Sony's engineers. The whole thing has come together astoundingly.
Such a turnaround this company has experienced. Just goes to show what employing the RIGHT people accomplishes.
Such a turnaround this company has experienced. Just goes to show what employing the RIGHT people accomplishes.
Jezbollah
Member
Employing the right people and lots of lessons learnt, IMO.
pharmboy044
Member
The extra RAM is huge for Sony. If they only had 4GB, the negative public perception wouldn't be worth saving a few dollars.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
We're working on one, but it's not easy atm because MS haven't provided detailed specs like Sony. It makes it much more of a chore, at least until we can get a box to have deconstruct and have a look at.
Indeed. Our guy at E3 said the hardware in person looks amazingly small. The Sony experts he spoke to said they kept referring to the mistakes they had fixed from the PS3 launch. The fact that a company as big as Sony is ready to recognise their mistakes is really, really great because it gives them an avenue to ensure they aren't made again. PS4 is proof of this.
No worries, the revision is coming soon, the figures in the OP are outdated, I'll leave them up anyway so people can make the comparison.
Lagspike_exe
Member
What sort of detailed specs do you need? You know the APU specs, ESRAM stuff, GDDR3 etc.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
We don't know the quality of RAM MS are using. 8GB of DDR3 can vary from $18 all the way up to $60 depending on the speed. We have a fix on the main APU cost based on the die size and our contact in semi-conductors giving us an approximate yield. Kinect is difficult to price, the range right now is huge, so much custom silicon. Also, a lot of the specs we're currently using is based on the leaked PDF, they might be out of date by now. If the APU has been downclocked for yields then it would lower the cost by a fair amount.
There are also a bunch of licencing issues with Xbone that need to be added to the cost but they are not easy to get a fix on either, so it will take a bit of time. Even the internal cost of the Windows Kernel needs to be taken into account, I'm certain it won't be done on a below cost or free basis by the Windows division, the Surface guys pay for Windows like any other OEM for example.
We'll definitely do it, but it will take longer because of the customised nature of the box. We won't be able to give an accurate picture until we get it in hand though. I think we can do it for the PS4 though, Sony have been incredibly open about what's inside the PS4.
I have to say that's a pretty amazing piece of hardware. An absolute far cry of the PS3 disaster. However i'm wondering how they will get node shrink on the APU with 256-bit memory bus in the future. Unless they find a way to go to die stack with an interposer, i'm not really sure they would do that...
Wait a minute, to whom do they pay? Is Microsoft writing checks for... Microsoft?
If you are going to spread complete and utter bollocks please at least make it plausible:
GDDR5 timings as provided by Hynix datasheet:
CAS latency= 10.6ns
tRCD = 12ns
tRP = 12ns
tRAS = 28 ns
tRC = 40ns
As you can see, nothing to be concerned about at all and pretty rapid, and faster than most DDR3 on the market.
So, to sum up when it comes to the PS4 the latency of the GDDR5 will not be a problem, but it remains to be seen whether Sony have engineered their memory controllers to cope with the work load, which looking at the design and comments from AMDs engineers it appears they have.
AwakenedCloud
Member
Going back to the PS4 reveal says otherwise. Everyone was expecting 4 Gigs of GDDR5 and that was considered impressive. The moment they announced that there was going to be 8 gigs everyone went nuts. Literally no one in the room was expecting it. 4 wouldn't have been that impressive, but it would've still been a long ways off of having a negative perception.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Internal transfer pricing. Sony have a similar setup, for example SEN pays Sony Music and Sony/ATV for the music they licence from them for Music Unlimited.
It's pretty common.
Lagspike_exe
Member
Ah, OK, I get it. But overall, do you think they have a strong chance of breaking even?
I did not know that. Seems weird to me, doing that looks like a signal of internal bureaucracy and division amongst the company but I am also seeing this as an outsider, no idea how that really works or its advantages.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Probably about the same as Sony I think. Money loser in the US by a relatively small amount and break even to a small profit in Europe, a larger one in the UK specifically, possibly a 3-5% gross margin in the UK vs negative 5-7% in the US.
Another issue is that retailers may want to extract a higher profit margin from MS in the light of cutting used games, that's an avenue we're working on getting info on right now. Our specialist has been saying that it will be a Newtonian type reaction from the retailers, they will want higher hardware margins if their one of their profit generation centres is cut away or they may refuse to carry the hardware.
It's complicated. The divisions might be run as separate businesses (so as not to mask profitability or losses and keep ROI clear), and there may be legal or tax implications as well.
shinobi602
Member
Pachter was saying Sony's probably making around $80 profit on each unit sold. Not sure of its accuracy, just throwing it out there lol.
Lagspike_exe
Member
They messed up their architecture that much or is Kinect so expensive?
maverick40
Junior Member
That would be amazing for Sony if true.
That is Pachter being Pachter
Zok310
Banned
LOL good one, it's a perfect storm for them, i thought Nintendo was going to have a great E3 but that was not the case, i hope this puts Sony in a situation where they can run with it and never look back, hopefully they realize this very rare opportunity and take advantage before MS and Nin wake the hell up.
Looking forward to the update next week.
AranhaHunter
Banned
So do you think it would break even if it launched in JP for Y39,999?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Both really. The additional cost of the huge APU, the possible cost of Windows, the additional cost of Kinect, we've priced in high quality DDR3 and the price differential is not very high compared to the lower quality 5.5Gbps GDDR5 Sony are using, Hynix are also talking about a new 16x256Mb banks based GDDR5 chip right now, it isn't available in the 5.5Gbps variety just yet, but I'm certain it will be soon, and that will reduce the costs further for Sony, much faster than was originally anticipated by our team.
At current dollar yen rates, I would say yes, if the yen weakens to 105 or higher then it will be a money loser for them. Remember that Sony deals in USD with most of their suppliers, we have taken this into account for our analysis. The weaker yen impacts Sony negatively against the dollar.
Pretty much every company with multiple departments do this, even if the departments work in the same exact building. It helps with budgeting, forecasting, and profit/loss evaluations. From the outside it seems ridiculous, but it business it's a wonderful tool to best see where your money is going and where it's coming from. Without it, you have a much harder time determining acceptable staffing to cover workload and other operating costs associated with running that portion of the company.
Sorry for the side track there.
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
What are you missing? We know just about everything at this point don't we? The size of the APU has been estimated from the pictures, you know the exact DDR3 modules, HD, BD drive, the Kinect 2 internals have been photographed, etc... Seems like we have seen more from MS than Sony on the exact internals.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
No it's called skill and good management.
It's also called Mark Cerny.
anexanhume
Member
If it's 80 for the pool, Sony could be turning a profit based on component cost and manufacture. When you factor in marketing, R&D and shipment, that has to be made up by accessories, games and digital sales.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Just finished. Total system cost is from $390-430. Second estimate, final estimate in November when we get a system in hand and get specific part numbers etc... I would say this is pretty bloody accurate though. The cost compares to Sony's selling price in the US of $380 to retail.
I'll have the detail up later when I get home, I emailed it to myself but it needs a bit of formatting and I have to anonymise the prices.
I'll have the detail up later when I get home, I emailed it to myself but it needs a bit of formatting and I have to anonymise the prices.
Thank you for that, looking forward to it.
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