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LA Times: Activision pulls ahead of EA as #1 third party

mcdonnell

Member
ENTERTAINMENT
Activision hits No. 1 on video game charts with 'Guitar Hero'
By Alex Pham
Times Staff Writer

July 24, 2007

"Guitar Hero" has helped turn Activision Inc. into an entertainment-industry hero.

The popular video game helped the Santa Monica company swing into the No. 1 spot in video game sales for the first half of 2007, according to data released Monday by the NPD Group, a research firm.

Activision became the first independent publisher this decade to knock out Electronic Arts Inc., ringing up $397.8 million in sales of games for consoles and hand-held game players from January through June, compared with EA's $365.7 million.

The lead could be fleeting: Redwood City, Calif.-based EA is widely expected to pull ahead in the more crucial second half of the year.

But Activision executives said the company's achievement gave validation to its strategy: grow market share by aggressively acquiring development studios, winning licenses to make games based on movies such as "Transformers," and cultivating homegrown franchises including "Call of Duty" and "Tony Hawk."

"We've never been better positioned as a company to take advantage of the growth in the video game industry," said Bobby Kotick, Activision's longtime chief executive. "For 17 years, I've focused on becoming the No. 1 video game company, and we're getting a lot closer to achieving that objective."

Of course, it helped that EA was undergoing a lull, with many of its blockbuster titles — such as "Medal of Honor: Airborne" and "Madden NFL 08" — not due out until later this year.

Moreover, Activision's sales were pumped up by the "Guitar Hero" franchise, which lets players simulate performing in rock concerts. Chief Financial Officer Thomas Tippl said the runaway hit would be "the fastest Activision brand in the company's history to hit $1 billion in sales."

Investors have noticed. Activision's shares have jumped 54% over the last year, falling 7 cents to $18.12 on Monday. EA shares have gained 15% from the year-earlier period, ending Monday at $51.85, down 2 pennies.

An EA spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment Monday.

"Activision is doing a lot of things right," said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities. "They're growing really fast, and they're being opportunistic."

One opportunity came last year, when Activision acquired RedOctane, the Sunnyvale, Calif.-based publisher of "Guitar Hero," for a reported $100 million.

"When that deal was done a year ago, a lot of people were scratching their heads," said John G. Taylor, managing director of Arcadia Investments Corp.

"Now, there are champagne corks popping at Activision. They early on identified the potential for putting out an easy-to-use, really fun music game. And they were able to push the boundaries for who can play to just about every age category, from old beatniks to kids who love to rock out on Aerosmith," he said.

For the year, sales of "Guitar Hero" games are expected to hit $360 million, contributing roughly a fifth of Activision's estimated revenue of $1.8 billion, according to analyst estimates.

RedOctane was one of nine acquisitions Activision has made in the last five years, helping to expand the games publisher's pool of talent.

Since 2002, Activision has nearly doubled its workforce, to 2,140 from 1,118, hiring developers and acquiring them along with studios as far away as Canada and Ireland.

"This is not an industry that works off of machines or by shaving pennies from the production of goods," said Robin Sue Kaminsky, Activision's executive vice president of publishing. "We're about having the talent to make games capable of delighting consumers."

Analysts note how Activision has grown from a company that has historically been dependent on a single franchise — namely "Tony Hawk" — to having a broader portfolio.

The company now offers games developed internally, titles acquired when it snaps up smaller studios and games licensed from DreamWorks SKG and other Hollywood movie studios.

"They've really grown up in the last three or four years," said Colin Sebastian, an analyst with Lazard Capital Markets. "They're now fairly well-rounded."

One of the biggest concerns about Activision is whether it can top this year's outsize growth.

"It's hard to know how much momentum will carry over into next year," Arcadia's Taylor said. "What specific properties will be the growth drivers next year to allow them to hold share?"

Analysts say the biggest threat is powerhouse EA, which is slated to release three titles that compete directly with Activision's top franchises: "Skate" will compete with "Tony Hawk," "Rock Band" with "Guitar Hero" and the latest installment of combat game "Medal of Honor" with "Call of Duty."

Activision executives say they're not worried. Their games have garnered numerous awards, including this year's Best Game of E3 from G4 Television — "Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare" — and six nominations for the prestigious Game Critics Best of E3 Awards.

"We're well situated to win," Kaminsky said.

alex.pham@latimes.com
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
One opportunity came last year, when Activision acquired RedOctane, the Sunnyvale, Calif.-based publisher of "Guitar Hero," for a reported $100 million.

"When that deal was done a year ago, a lot of people were scratching their heads," said John G. Taylor, managing director of Arcadia Investments Corp.

Seriously, who didn't understand why they bought RO?

BTW EA is going to bull pack ahead in the second half with Madden....
 

Aaron

Member
Y2Kev said:
Seriously, who didn't understand why they bought RO?

BTW EA is going to bull pack ahead in the second half with Madden....
I still don't. Anyone can make the hardware. They cocked up by not buying Harmonix.
 

USD

Member
A bit surprising, but they won't hold on to that spot. Madden alone will probably put EA back on top. Still, kudos to Activision, mostly to Guitar Hero.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Kudos to Red Octane, since they're driving all this growth. When Madden and Rock Band come out EA will be back on top again, but still, it's nice to see that there is some good competition among the 3rd party developers.
 

TJ Spyke

Member
"studios as far away as Canada". Sorry, but it makes me laugh that they consider Canada far away when the US borders Canada.

Good for Activision I guess.

As for overall biggest publisher, I think it is Nintendo (especially thanks to Pokemon).
 
legend166 said:
On a related note, who's the biggest publisher of all in the US? Nintendo?
I think so. The news agency wouldn't be emphasizing the 'third party' part if that wasn't the case. Nintendo published games own 7 spots on the top 10(4 Wii, 3 DS) for the first half of the year.
 

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
Sounds like it's all because of Guitar Hero II to me. EA generally doesn't blow their load in the first half of a year. I mean seriously, pretty much all EA has released in 2007 so far are the Godfather remakes, SSX Blur, Tiger Woods 07 for the Wii, and Harry Potter. After all of the EA sports titles get released in the coming months, Activision will yet again fall back behind. Oh, plus there's a little EA game called Rock Band coming out. Pretty sure that game in particular will eat away at Activision.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
TJ Spyke said:
"studios as far away as Canada". Sorry, but it makes me laugh that they consider Canada far away when the US borders Canada.

Wow I totally skipped over that part. Yeah that's hilarious. It makes it sounds like Canada is some weird videogame backwater, I mean it's not like some of the biggest studios in the world are there or anything... :lol
 
The thing that will work against Rock Band is that Guitar Hero III will appear on both the PS2 and the Wii(debut on a Nintendo console, no less). I don't think that the combined might of the 360 and PS3 will even topple those two alone. Add the PS3 and 360 Guitar Hero III sales and the $200 price tag to the mix and Rock Band will pretty much be slaughtered.

If they had a Wii version ready, Rock Band could have stood a chance.
 

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
titiklabingapat said:
The thing that will work against Rock Band is that Guitar Hero III will appear on both the PS2 and the Wii. I don't think that the combined might of the 36 and PS3 will even topple those two alone, then add the PS3 and 360 Guitar Hero sales and the $200 price tag to the mix and Rock Band will pretty much be slaughtered.

I don't think it'll be slaughtered. Even if it doesn't outsell Guitar Hero III at the very least it'll eat away at its market share.
 

Thoren

Banned
Rock Band has some pretty strong buzz though, and 360/PS3 needs all the titles they can get to stand against the deep userbase of the PS2 and the Hype Rollercoaster of the Wii.
 
The PS3 had all the buzz coming into the console war back in November, too.

I want to play Rock Band, but I'm just saying. The $200 price tag almost cost as much as a Wii and two PS2s!
 

Ravidrath

Member
Wow.

Never thought I'd say this, but I'd rather EA be in first place... I feel like Activision has really stagnated, and EA's got some really interesting shit in the pipe, stuff I'd actually play.
 

D3VI0US

Member
Quick Activision milk that franchise until it's no longer relevant! Activision gets to wear the crown but by the end of the year EA will have taken it back for sure.
 

legend166

Member
I don't think Rockband will do anything at all to help EA overtake Activision in the 2nd half of the year, especially considering that Activision has GH III, which I'm 100% positive will outsell Rock Band by quite a large margin.

All the sports installments should do it, however.
 
u_neek said:
Just as EA was getting good, the crappiest publisher takes the number 1 spot.
heh.

it's funny because it's actually kind of true.

who knew that when this day came that we wouldn't celebrate.
 

Akia

Member
StoOgE said:
COD4 obviously wont put up Madden like numbers, but that should be huge for them too.

They just need to get a playable demo in stores. That's the reason COD2 for 360 did so well.

Back at launch it was THE game people would play on the 360 demo pods.
 
ATVI: Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero 3, Tony Hawk, Quake Wars (maybe?)

vs

ERTS: Madden, Rock Band, NFS, Army of Two, NBA Live, NCAA, Tiger Woods, Nascar, MySims

It will be short lived and EA has really been hurt by no releases this year as they're out of the game in Baseball and Boxing.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
sonycowboy said:
ATVI: Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero 3, Tony Hawk, Quake Wars (maybe?)

vs

ERTS: Madden, Rock Band, NFS, Army of Two, NBA Live, NCAA, Tiger Woods, Nascar, MySims

It will be short lived and EA has really been hurt by no releases this year as they're out of the game in Baseball and Boxing.


Plus FIFA 08, Boogie, MoH, The Simpsons....yeah EA will be fine.
 

boutrosinit

Street Fighter IV World Champion
ZealousD said:
Sounds like it's all because of Guitar Hero II to me. EA generally doesn't blow their load in the first half of a year. I mean seriously, pretty much all EA has released in 2007 so far are the Godfather remakes, SSX Blur, Tiger Woods 07 for the Wii, and Harry Potter. After all of the EA sports titles get released in the coming months, Activision will yet again fall back behind. Oh, plus there's a little Harmonix / MTV distributed by EA Partners, not actually published by EA game called Rock Band coming out. Pretty sure that game in particular will eat away at Activision.

Fixed :D
 
sonycowboy said:
ATVI: Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero 3, Tony Hawk, Quake Wars (maybe?)

vs

ERTS: Madden, Rock Band, NFS, Army of Two, NBA Live, NCAA, Tiger Woods, Nascar, MySims

It will be short lived and EA has really been hurt by no releases this year as they're out of the game in Baseball and Boxing.

They may have lost the first half battle, but they will clearly win the war for 2007.
 

AstroLad

Hail to the KING baby
Ravidrath said:
Wow.

Never thought I'd say this, but I'd rather EA be in first place... I feel like Activision has really stagnated, and EA's got some really interesting shit in the pipe, stuff I'd actually play.

Ha, ditto that. Activision is old EA and new EA looks promising. Apparently, competition can be a good thing--who would have guessed!?
 

KevinRo

Member
Rock Band will be the determining point whether or not Activision did the right thing. Who knows, maybe just like Nintendo on the subject of not keeping Rare, they will be justified in their purchase even though most gamers thought at the time it was the wrong move. What we do know is that they are pushing hard with advertising and we'll be sure to see it, alongside the world, on television and MTV regularly.
 
But Rock Band is going to defeat the juggernaut its first time at bat... :roll

MiyamotosAngelsSP.gif


I still hate this avatar. Get Samus out of there.
 
elostyle said:
Rockband isn't gonna change shit this year.

Guitar hero 3 will dwarf it.

agreed. Most people going to buy games this christmas have never heard of Rock Band, but they've heard of GH 3 and have probably played it at a friend's house, which one do ya think they'll get?
 

thekad

Banned
When EA actually starts innovating with games like skate, MoH: Airborne, and Army of Two, a crappier publisher claims the top spot :lol
 

666

Banned
Yeah, EA really seem to have lifted their game. Heck, just by producing Skate they've got my vote for greatest company ever.
 

AstroLad

Hail to the KING baby
thekad said:
When EA actually starts innovating with games like skate, MoH: Airborne, and Army of Two, a crappier publisher claims the top spot :lol

But none of those games are out yet. As far as I can tell, EA saw their market position fading because of the lack of innovation and quality (similar to Activision's current position) and changed their approach a bit. Now all these games (and other promising games like The Simpsons) could come out and be crap, but they certainly appear much more promising than anything EA's had in a while. If things turn out decently, I think this new approach will benefit them quite a bit. Despite the cynicism, it wasn't awful games that put EA in first place so long ago, it was actually the opposite.
 
We really need to have a thread dedicated to Rock Band vs GH3 sales predictions, so we can look back and point to how wrong some of you are. GH3 is going to destroy Rock Band this fall.
 
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