I don't think some of you people realise just how steep a decline would need to be for that ('fail harder than the GameCube' BS) to happen. It's easy to cite a few numbers without context (which NeoGAF often does), but the reason why I've stated many times that this is extremely misleading is that these Doomsaying Know-Nothings don't even scratch the damned surface and bring the real substance to that comment. Perhaps because when you do some proper research, cries of failure are actually rather easy to dispel, and well, that doesn't get your website cheap hits... **Rolls Eyes**. I have also stated many times the importance of letting them play all of their cards, then waiting until the Wii U ceases production - Many of Nintendo's IPs have seen growth since the GameCube era, and we have seen this success continuing on the 3DS. It is also worth noting that their games don't sell on Day One or the first week alone, but over long periods - this has been called the 'Evergreen' approach. On those grounds, I have often encouraged people to wait until Nintendo's 9th Generation console has launched, the Wii U has played all of its cards, and ceased production before calling it 'toast', 'dead', a 'failure', and whatever derogatory terms have been inserted here - That is the only fair and proper way to do such a discussion the justice it deserves.
A few points need to be noted with the GameCube: First, it was the third console to launch in the 6th Generation. It came on the back of the Nintendo 64, which had a reputation for longer delays and droughts than anything ever imagined on the Wii U. While it hosted some of the most important titles in gaming history, and it was the most powerful system, the Nintendo 64 did hurt their reputation in that regard. It should also be noted that for the GameCube, some of Nintendo's popular IPs had taken directions alien to many of those who had experienced them on previous consoles, and/or they weren't received with the same love as other entries before and after that. Super Mario Sunshine underwhelmed. LOZ had The Wind Waker, which was one of the games I wanted to play, but the same Internet which romanticises about the GameCube today was a different place in 2001. Donkey Kong wasn't received as well on the GameCube, then there was Starfox Adventures, which wasn't loved as much as its predecessors. If your first party games underwhelm, and you're receiving little in the way of support from other parties, then you have a recipe for failure. I have said for some time that I felt the GameCube was easily, and by a distance, Nintendo's worst ever console - that is just my opinion, and as much as I LOZ is my all-time favourite series, Wind Waker was not enough for me to justify a GameCube purchase, while Twilight Princess always appealed to me more on the Wii, because of the Wiimote. On the Wii U, the circumstances are very different. The available first party games are delivering, while more popular ones aren't there yet, and other parties will have games there. It also has the lowest entry price of the three main 8th Generation home consoles; In fact, you would be able to buy a Wii U AND a 2DS with games for less than the price of an X4 console without a game, which some people might appreciate.
I will also point out that the GameCube had more exclusives out by the end of its first full year than the Wii U, because NOBODY on here, and not one 'analyst' or games site ever notes this - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Pikmin, Animal Crossing, Wave Race: Blue Storm, Super Mario Sunshine, LOZ: Wind Waker, Metroid Prime, Eternal Darkness, LOZ: Wind Waker (in Japan), Starfox Adventures, Mario Party 4, Rogue Squadron 2, NBA Courtside 2002 are some of the ones that I recall. I could list titles from 2003, if you lived in Europe or Australia, with F-Zero GX, Kirby's Air Ride, Mario Party 5, Mario Kart: Double Dash! among the notable first party titles from that year, and Billy Hatcher & The Giant Egg (console exclusive), Rogue Squadron 3, PN03, and before it was ported elsewhere, Viewtiful Joe among the notable ones from other parties. They existed next to port jobs and better support from publishers such as Electronic Arts, but you can see very clearly that it had played a lot more of its cards of the time within its first full year - The Wii U can not say that at this stage, and I would put it to you that without the most popular ones by the end of 2003, the GameCube would've fared much worse than the Wii U at a similar point in its lifecycle. You need to understand where Nintendo had been when they were at that point, and just how dominant the PS2 was in that era. One can not say "but these IPs were there" on its own, because it doesn't take into account what preceded it, other events happening, or the reception of those IPs. It does not take into account the re-assessment, how the Wii was realised, and the growth that Nintendo IPs have seen since then. It's also rather moronic to say "just because it happened before..." in one breath, then cite GameCube levels (i.e., the same 'history' which you're disregarding when successes are mentioned) in the next breath.
Now, to address some of those more popular IPs: It is ignorant of the fact that Super Smash Bros. Melee (the biggest-selling game on that platform with about 7 million copies, by the way) was released within its launch window, just days after the console's release. It also ignores that the Smash Bros. Series had seen growth on the Wii (Brawl had sold 10.79 million copies as of March 2012). Wii U Smash Bros. isn't even out yet.
Mario Kart 8 could be one to watch - Mario Kart: Double Dash! was the second biggest-selling GameCube game, on 7 million copies. Mario Kart Wii has sold over 7 million copies since April 2011 (that means, more than the biggest-selling GameCube game in the GameCube's entire lifecycle); In April 2011, it had been out for three years, and had achieved sales of 27 million copies (that is, greater than the lifetime sales of the GameCube itself). That game has sold over 34 million copies, eclipsing the lifetime sales of not only the GameCube, but even the Nintendo 64. To prove that this was no slouch/one-off, we can see that the DS entry had sales of 23.34 million in March 2013 (again, higher than the lifetime sales of the GameCube itself) - Mario Kart DS has been out for eight years. Furthermore, the 3DS entry (Mario Kart 7) has shown no signs of that IP being a one-off at this point with sales of 8.08 million in March 2013 (it is the second biggest-selling 3DS game to date, and sold more than the GameCube entry) - Imagine what is possible for this game now that the 2DS is here, when the 3DS hits that £99 entry point, and when one revisits these figures in 2019, when it, too, will have been out for eight years. This series has shown that it has plenty of length in its legs and every bit as much life in its tail. Not only that, late adopters of Nintendo consoles often want to play these games. People are still buying it to this day. The other observation one can make here, is that a handheld version (DS) existing wasn't a hindrance to a home console (Wii) version, despite the DS having a larger user base (150m+ to the Wii's 100m+). I hope that this last point can at least go some way to addressing the question raised in this thread about whether people would buy Smash Bros, on the 3DS and not bother with the Wii U one - you can see there that different versions can co-exist and be successful for different reasons
.
I think you will agree that what Mario Kart Wii has accomplished is nothing short of outstanding, and this was all the more remarkable, given that it's on one single platform - In that respect, it is bigger than COD and GTA. Think about all of the above paragraph for a moment. Now, consider that Mario Kart typically sells more on consoles than handheld because of the local multi-player experience. Consider that Version 8 will have online modes (which you don't pay a subscription fee for, by the way), and Mario Kart TV - they are certainly delivering on the incentives to buy there, and we know that the series is one of the most popular in all gaming. Hell, it's the succesor to the most successful Mario Kart to date!! One of the biggest games of all time, and you're writing the Wii U off BEFORE it's even had a chance to play an Ace in its hand!? Now, consider what is possible once the Wii U hits the profitable $249 point of entry, and further still, the $199 point. I don't claim to be an expert, but that, to my mind, is industry and economic illiteracy of the highest order. You, the people who froth from the pews in the Church Of Nintenhate, the people who hang on every word spewing from Pachter's Pulpit, could do better than to lend him a shred of credence.
Super Mario 64 DS has sold 10.83 million copies as of March 2013. Bear in mind that this was a re-release of a Nintendo 64 game. That number is
higher than Super Mario Sunshine, which was the third highest-selling GameCube game with about 6 million copies.
Super Mario Galaxy has sold 11.72 million copies as of March 2013. 6 million to 11.72 million is an outstanding level of growth in anybody's book, and even its sequel has outsold the GameCube's Sunshine, with over 7 million copies - Now that it is in the Selects range, it can still continue to provide some bread and butter for them. On the 3DS, Super Mario 3D Land has sold 8.29 million copies as of March 2013 - this was reported to be outpacing Super Mario Galaxy in
this Siliconera article, and it is the biggest-selling title on the 3DS. Once again, this figure is higher than the GameCube's Sunshine, it is set to eclipse the 10.83 million figure of SM64DS within eight years of release, and in the 8th Generation, we can see over 40% growth over the GameCube title. The game that some of NeoGAF's trolls call a '3DS up-port' isn't even out yet.
Some people cried "But, But, NSMB couldn't do it!!", and I addressed the ignorance of that comment
HERE a while back.
Then there is Donkey Kong. Jungle Beat was a million-seller on the GameCube. DKC Returns sold about 6 million copies (so, that means as well as the GameCube's Super Mario Sunshine), and even more, if you also count the 3DS version, which achieved million-seller status. It's another IP which saw growth since the GameCube era, and where the Wii U entry, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, isn't out yet.
I could add the many other favourite/popular IPs which aren't out yet, which people will bite on, such as Wii U LOZ, Bayonetta 2, Monolith's X and SMT x Fire Emblem (won't mention all, as that'll be quite the list!!). NONE of which are out yet. If the popular first-party games or games that you want to play aren't there, then at this time, it is surely common sense to wait until they are before you bite. Add to that the fact that this is Nintendo's highest priced console to date, and you can see more reasons why some people may hold on - It is important to know the difference between complete disinterest, waiting for what you want, and waiting until you feel the time is right, and many on here are failing to make those differentiations. One should also point out that those who have bitten are, for the most part, enjoying it, and there haven't been any Ring Of Death scandals or gross reports of systems breaking down via no fault of the users. So, the product itself isn't a bad one. It just needs more of the games that people want, and they will come. It needs a wider library, and that will come. Other parties will return, too. It is a nonsense to say that it will get absolutely nothing more in the way of games, when the reality is that many on the Indie Circuit are chomping at the bits to get theirs released on it, and when the Wii hosted many treasures, if you cared to look. It is a nonsense to say that other parties won't ever return, or to presume that the console is going to be forever stuck in a rut, when it has many unexplored avenues, and the games that people want are still to arrive.
Let me also remind you all that the 3DS was written off in the same way - While a price cut can and helped to some degree, it was more the quick 1-2 release of Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 which turned its fortunes around, and it has going from strength to strength with Pokemon X & Y, Monster Hunter 4, Animal Crossing: New Leaf and NSMB2, while IPs such as Fire Emblem and Kid Icarus have achieved million-selling status and achieved growth in the process. Yet it appears that those who wrote the 3DS off in 2011 before it had a chance to put more titles out haven't learned a damned thing from the recent past.
Let us not forget those who told us to wait and see with the Vita, or that the PS3 was given FOUR YEARS - Now you even have people congratulating Sony on the 'success' of the PS3, when it is deeply apparent that they were the undisputed losers of the 7th Generation. It's actually rather tragic that in a number of recent threads, some members had a hard time accepting that Nintendo won the 7th Generation, and tried to change the goalposts, as if all this talk of sales, the idea that some MIGHT see THEIR console(s) of choice as a failure would make people enjoy it/them less. It is equally tragic that some members felt a need to concern troll and seek NeoGAF's approval because they bought a Wii U - Please know that you're not 'crazy' to have bitten, and the LAST thing you need is this site's approval. I thought that people bought games consoles to play them, not pose with and be seen - Might as well stop listening to your favourite bands because they didn't reach #1 in the charts... URGH.
I can tell you about social issues and economic circumstances, which are more uncertain today than they were in 2006. I get that the PS3 was more expensive and did better at a similar point, but I would just as well put it out there that youth unemployment wasn't at the low point that it's at now, and lower disposable income families in 2013, at least, in my neck of the woods, are deciding whether to put their central heating on or food on the table. I would argue that the PS3 wasn't just a games console and coming on the back of the PS2's success; it was also locked in a media battle, championing its Blu-Ray against the HD-DVDs. So, beyond games (which is the Wii U's primary purpose), there were other more tangible incentives to buy one. Simply put, there is far, FAR more to take into account than just surface numbers, there are hosts of unexplored options and avenues to explore, and until that has been done, not only are these cries extremely bizarre, premature and preposterous, one can not be so absolute in such declarations.
As for the idea that they will ditch this console for something more powerful, when they've just made a transition to the HD game development era, and want to keep their budgets under control, I'm sure there's a Yellow Brick Road somewhere in the wildest of your dreams. Please, take a leaf from the Scarecrow's book, follow that trail to Emerald City and ask the Wonderful Wizard for a brain. Christmas is just around the corner, and there's a chance that they'll be in demand, so... Be Quick!!
(It isn't in their interests to ditch it, and they won't want to risk the threat of more than quadrupling their game development costs - something we are seeing from first party studios AT LAUNCH for the PS4, according to
this Examiner article).
Finally, it is important to stop looking at this discussion in terms of "what game will save it?". In today's climate, few will bite on a new games console for just one game. Super Mario 3D World will help, but it won't do it on its own. However, Place it next to NSMBU, NSLU, Sonic Lost World, the third exclusive Sonic game, Pikmin 3, Nintendo Land, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Bayonetta 2, The Wonderful 101, Wii U LOZ, Wii Sports Club, Wii Party U, Wii Fit U, Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games, X, SMT x Fire Emblem, Zombi U, the Yoshi/Epic Yarn game, and Smash Bros., plus other unannounced titles and popular IPs, THEN consider that some people may want to play cross-platform games in Off-TV Play Mode, and might think "Actually, there are quite a few games that I would like to play on this... I'll bite". Nintendo themselves said as much, and again, if you think about this, very few people will buy any games console just for one game, ESPECIALLY in this climate.
I doubt that many will consider these points, and I won't be surprised to find myself on the end of some flames, ridicule and harassment, all of which I have experienced whenever I've brought a more brighter light to these topics, but I do at least hope that some of you will at least stop with the 'failing harder than the GameCube' rhetoric, stop acting as if all the options are been exhausted, and put aside the delusional fanboyist fantasies of failure and death. It's extremely vile and rotten, and you should know that you're dragging this place beneath the GameFAQs and even the 4Chans of this world, to gaming's Tenth Circle. It's late, and I don't have much else to write, so I'll leave it all here. As You Were.
