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November 2007 NPD Analysis (next-gen.biz)
- Thread starter jvm
- Start date
plagiarize
Banned
you aren't going to like this.jvm said:
the EB i work at has a box in the bathroom... unopened. it's labelled 'uncharted: df standee. please display promptly' or something. now i have no idea if that request to display promptly is from Sony or Gamestop hq. all i know is that it was sent us, and it isn't displayed. no idea who made the call... and this information is offered as is.
for all i know Sony might have told us not to display it for whatever reason.
we definately have a Sony rep in at least once a month (i'm never there when the reps visit)... so i know Sony know we aren't displaying it. the reps do a good job as far as i believe. so it's more another piece of the mystery than me trying to bad mouth anyone.
We better hope Miscrosoft and future console makers keep their architecture close to that of a PC or we are looking at the demise of the PC gaming market. More and more games will become console first with the PC as an afterthought. While BitTorrent is awesome for finding anything on the web, it has unfortunately made it so any moron can easily find a priated version of any game.
Back on topic, interesting read. I hope that Sony can pull it together
Chiggs
Gold Member
Borys said:
Don't worry, Crysis is a game that will put up solid figures for the next year or so. Once people get better hardware, the interest will rise.
Can't say that I'm surprised. I got flamed months ago for posting a "who cares" comment in a UT3 thread. The Unreal franchise is dead. Nobody cares. It wasn't even that great to begin with.
Excellent article again this month. Reading the thread now, others have brought up most of the points I was going to. One thing worth mentioning:
Have you asked NPD for the tie ratios for the systems at the same point in their lifecycle? With so much analysis on the performance of key titles, I think it would be interesting to see the overall tie ratio of the Wii and PS3 this month compared to the 360 in November last year.
December is a five-week month compared to November's four, so if Nintendo keeps the weekly Wii shipments flat to November, they'll do just over 1.2m. No telling how close they are to doing so, over or under.
Have you asked NPD for the tie ratios for the systems at the same point in their lifecycle? With so much analysis on the performance of key titles, I think it would be interesting to see the overall tie ratio of the Wii and PS3 this month compared to the 360 in November last year.
siamesedreamer
Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Do you think the low end of the 360 number should be last year's number? Do you think it could get to 1.5M+?
Chiggs said:
On the flip side, we haven't heard anything out of know-it-all Mark Rein in several weeks. so UT3 bombing does have some benefits. He was pretty critical of MS for their cautious stance on UT3 modding, but I bet right now he'd swap the whole mod scene for a Gears of War style marketing push.
Ok this graphic seem to be positive to me. It's the sales through the end pf November, up to November. This means it's the total sales i guess.
Resistance in first? Well duh -- launch game.
Uncharted no selling well? It already sold as much as Lair in half the retail time and it sold almost two third Heavenly Sword numbers already. This probably means that if we redo this chart next year, Uncharted will be right next to Resistance.
Resistance in first? Well duh -- launch game.
Uncharted no selling well? It already sold as much as Lair in half the retail time and it sold almost two third Heavenly Sword numbers already. This probably means that if we redo this chart next year, Uncharted will be right next to Resistance.
AdmiralViscen
Banned
wtf @ UT3, GH3 360
If my dick is bigger than a 12 year old's and a 9 year old's, what does that mean for me?
And I don't think we can just automatically assume UC will have FoM's legs.
Ranger X said:Ok this graphic seem to be positive to me. It's the sales through the end pf November, up to November. This means it's the total sales i guess.
Resistance in first? Well duh -- launch game.
Uncharted no selling well? It already sold as much as Lair in half the retail time and it sold almost two third Heavenly Sword numbers already. This probably means that if we redo this chart next year, Uncharted will be right next to Resistance.
If my dick is bigger than a 12 year old's and a 9 year old's, what does that mean for me?
And I don't think we can just automatically assume UC will have FoM's legs.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
Interesting article. They predict 1.1 millions Wii for December. It is quite low. Pachter said 1.6 millions.
Kestastrophe
Member
AdmiralViscen said:
:lol :lol
It should do much better than last year. Just looking at trending, the 360 increase from November to December 2006 was 121%. If that is applied to November 2007 360 sales, December will be 1.7m.siamesedreamer said:
However, the October-November increase was less this year than last (110% compared to 135% last year). So that could be an indication that the 360 won't see the same size increase.
Right now I'm guessing it will trend up to between 1.5 and 1.7m. Which is very good, and should be enough to MS a brief victory over the Wii. Not that any gains won't disappear in Q1 next year.
It's all about what the supply will be. No one knows if Nintendo is able to increase it in December.Mithos Yggdrasill said:
Damn..Uncharted...
I know they featured it somewhat in those new ps3 commercials, but why do they not show that movie style gametrailer that came out earlier ? Spruce it up a bit to make it work better on TV, add the message that what you see is ingame( same for R&C by the way)
and this way , people see it , might get interested by the story and go out looking for it!?
I know they featured it somewhat in those new ps3 commercials, but why do they not show that movie style gametrailer that came out earlier ? Spruce it up a bit to make it work better on TV, add the message that what you see is ingame( same for R&C by the way)
and this way , people see it , might get interested by the story and go out looking for it!?
Just commenting on the Resistance total, as I haven't had a chance to really dig into the article, yet.
http://wii.ign.com/articles/764/764835p1.html
Resistance Nov 06 + Dec 06 - 286K
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143434
Resistance Jan 07 - 144K
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=5814849&postcount=169
Resistance top-selling PS3 game in February, which is greater than Virtua Fighter 5 (53K)
Through Feb 07, Resistance was at a minimum 483K. I think NPD may have given you a YTD instead of a LTD number.
jvm said:
http://wii.ign.com/articles/764/764835p1.html
Resistance Nov 06 + Dec 06 - 286K
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143434
Resistance Jan 07 - 144K
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=5814849&postcount=169
Resistance top-selling PS3 game in February, which is greater than Virtua Fighter 5 (53K)
Through Feb 07, Resistance was at a minimum 483K. I think NPD may have given you a YTD instead of a LTD number.
GhaleonEB said:
When you think about the 25% increase due to the 5-week month as well as the typical 2x November boost that happens. It's weird to think that PS3 may sell upwards of a million consoles in December.
I'm obviously not saying it will outsell the 360 or the Wii but that's a pretty big amount of consoles for Sony.
Nice analysis jvm but I don't see how not including MotorStorm because it's a pack-in (since pack-ins don't count against NPD software numbers anyway) makes it less relevant of a comparison to the other titles.
Would it have been more accurate if you had obtained the information for the top 5 best-selling first party titles (or console-specific exclusives) on each platform? I would judge performance that way. By the way, the only reason I say console-specific exclusive is because AFAIK, NPD doesn't track PC sales or, at the very least, does so separately.
You also fail to mention that the PS3 attach rate is slightly higher than the Wiis which makes it a healthier platform for software, generally. A historical comparison to the 360's attach rate at this point last year would have been great information as well like GhaleonEB said.
Those were my thoughts as well. I didn't have the information to back it up though. Nicely done.donny2112 said:
AltogetherAndrews
Member
So now even NPD is trolling Resistance? Good grief.
donny2112 said:
February: 70k
http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3158048
So it's exactly 500k by the end of February.
I think we're forgetting Uncharted released at right after both CoD4 and AC. I know I held back on getting it because I bought the other two first, and was not able to afford any other games in Nov. In regards to only the PS3, I would say CoD4 and AC had just as much, if not more hype than Uncharted did. I imagine, like Resistance, it will continue to sell decent numbers of the next year, and eventually surpass 1m.
Is this right ?
Title: Crysis (PC)
Actual units: 86,633
Expected units: 68,600
% From Expected: +26.28%
According this Crysis wasn't such bomb that people are talking.
EDIT: And UT3 was bomb.
Title: Unreal Tournament 3 (PC)
Actual units: 33,995
Expected units: 70,600
% From Expected: -51.84%
Title: Crysis (PC)
Actual units: 86,633
Expected units: 68,600
% From Expected: +26.28%
According this Crysis wasn't such bomb that people are talking.
EDIT: And UT3 was bomb.
Title: Unreal Tournament 3 (PC)
Actual units: 33,995
Expected units: 70,600
% From Expected: -51.84%
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Rat Salad said:
:bow :bow Rat Salad pwnz $ony!!!
donny2112 said:
Yep, definitely gave him the YTD number... which actually would be pretty useful, given that we have 2006 numbers for it; so eyeballing that graph, if they gave him YTD 2007, the lifetime total would be around 750k which is about what I'd expect... and...
theguy said:
There's the confirmation. Looks like whoever from NPD that sent the numbers over to next-gen sent the YTD number.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
MidiSurf said:
Being expected to bomb by analysts doesn't mean it's not a bomb. :lol
A $20-$30 million dollar game + advertisements can't survive selling 100k.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Atilac said:
Uncharted in one month sold 10% less than Lair in four months, yes--although that's not to say it isn't a massive disappointment.
speculawyer
Member
Sony seriously does deserve some of the crap results it gets . . . for example, when launching a new console . . . why not launch a lot of the well-known IP along with it?
They've got very strong brands like Gran Turismo, SOCOM, Twisted Metal, God of War . . . but NONE of those franchises are available for purchase even a year after the system's release!! Instead they fund a ton of new IP that hasn't done very well. To quote Plan 9 from Outer Space . . . that was stupid . . . . Stupid, stupid, stupid!
They've got very strong brands like Gran Turismo, SOCOM, Twisted Metal, God of War . . . but NONE of those franchises are available for purchase even a year after the system's release!! Instead they fund a ton of new IP that hasn't done very well. To quote Plan 9 from Outer Space . . . that was stupid . . . . Stupid, stupid, stupid!
AltogetherAndrews
Member
speculawyer said:
Probably because the games just plain weren't ready to be released at launch? Sony's hand was pretty much forced in this, you know.
AltogetherAndrews
Member
I'm not sure how relevant PC games sales are considering the massive money dealing that must occur behind the curtains between devs/pubs and hardware manufacturers.
Microsoft thought this generation would be identical to the last, just with incremental increases in console horsepower. The Xbox 360 Premium reflects that. It's basically an upgraded Xbox. The Xbox Core, though, was how Microsoft really planned on beating Sony. It was basically an upgraded PS2. It still uses memory cards, it released for $300USD, it was clearly designed to be the PS2.explodet said:
Neither Sony nor Nintendo thought this was the case and they chose different paths (doing practically the opposite of one another). Sony, believing they could do no wrong, aimed to become much more PC-like and focus on high-end technology, making their dream console. Nintendo, on the other hand, had their backs to the wall and chose to do something totally off-the-wall with low-end technology as a last-ditch effort, pushing console gaming even further away from PC-gaming.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
I was under the impression that the AC Collector's edition also sold an additional 110k+ on 360, or was that included in NPD's top 10 total?
:lolSho_Nuff82 said:
Crysis will sell for years.
And the NPD numbers for it don't matter that much anyways. Europe plays PC games.
The worldwide LTD for Crysis will be fine.
Besides, I suspect that Crysis is as much a way to advertise the engine and high-end graphics cards as it is a game. Nvidea moneyhats...? I wouldn't be surprised...
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
jvm you're REALLY going to want to update the Resistance numbers in case readers get the wrong impression.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Slavik81 said:
Germany (and maybe Sweden) plays PC games.
The rest of Europe plays DS and PS2, and is slowly coming around to the new consoles. Crysis hasn't exactly lit up the PAL charts.
Skiptastic
Member
You know, people keep talking about "Did Microsoft pay too much attention to Sony?" when the real question I have is "Does Microsoft have anyway to counter Nintendo?"
I don't think they do. I think the demographics that Nintendo is hitting are completely outside of Microsoft's ability to reach at the moment. They don't have the internal studios developing at the rate necessary to bring in those people. And frankly, a large segment of the Wii base is going to buy the console, enjoy Wii Sports, maybe get Mario and a couple of other games, and that's it. They're the gamers that wouldn't buy a console for Guitar Hero, but they'll gladly enjoy it when someone else has it or Rock Band. That's not your typical 360 gamer, who blithely goes from one game to the next as the community hits game after game.
I say that Microsoft had no choice but to pay attention to Sony to try to under cut Sony in North America, and I'd say they're doing a good job of it. I think a price cut right before GTA4 comes out will help lead to their growth over Sony while Nintendo will continue to ride its own wave and sell. I don't think Microsoft can compete against Nintendo with the 360. They can try with the Arcade, but frankly, I don't see that working. Hell, if they sold the Arcade for $199 with a $250 Wii, I still don't know if they would still be competing for mass market breakthrough. The Wii already has that due to its innovative control scheme and great press.
I don't think they do. I think the demographics that Nintendo is hitting are completely outside of Microsoft's ability to reach at the moment. They don't have the internal studios developing at the rate necessary to bring in those people. And frankly, a large segment of the Wii base is going to buy the console, enjoy Wii Sports, maybe get Mario and a couple of other games, and that's it. They're the gamers that wouldn't buy a console for Guitar Hero, but they'll gladly enjoy it when someone else has it or Rock Band. That's not your typical 360 gamer, who blithely goes from one game to the next as the community hits game after game.
I say that Microsoft had no choice but to pay attention to Sony to try to under cut Sony in North America, and I'd say they're doing a good job of it. I think a price cut right before GTA4 comes out will help lead to their growth over Sony while Nintendo will continue to ride its own wave and sell. I don't think Microsoft can compete against Nintendo with the 360. They can try with the Arcade, but frankly, I don't see that working. Hell, if they sold the Arcade for $199 with a $250 Wii, I still don't know if they would still be competing for mass market breakthrough. The Wii already has that due to its innovative control scheme and great press.