mugurumakensei
Member
im gonna predict 40k since everything typically goes down next week.
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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2011 (Dec 19 - Dec 25)
- Thread starter Road
- Start date
Why not?
There is no such thing as a third party exclusive. If something does succeed on Vita to where it saves the platform Sony should just buy the company unless it's from Capcom, Square Enix, or Konami.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Well how much has the price collapsed?
I'm just looking at Amazon, and it seems to be as much of a drop as Monster Hunter 3G, Mario Kart 7, and Super Mario 3D Land.
And right now it's almost through 60% of the shipment.
I realize that's still not the greatest thing, but didn't Kirby's Return To Dreamland have a similarly big first shipment?
Of course I don't expect it to bounce back nearly as much as Kirby did, but I still think it can at least get a second shipment, which wouldn't be awful.
Smiles and Cries
Member
if the lack of Wifi models was the problem it should be higher I would think, lower is a bad sign regardless
Wouldn't soccer fans be super entrenched on the console versions?
I really doubt this is a market that can be forced to change habits so soon. They are buying rooster updates year to year.
I will be buying a 3DS soon yet I know the vita has more power and features, I won't be buying it.
To be honest, I don't know why as I love tech and I love the tech that vita has but it just doesn't have anything coming in software that would make me want it. Also I really wish they had gone with a clamshell design because after owning an iphone 4s with gorilla glass has me scratching my head why they didn't use it.
They are doing what they did with the original PSP, games that look and play just as well on my TV.
To be honest, I don't know why as I love tech and I love the tech that vita has but it just doesn't have anything coming in software that would make me want it. Also I really wish they had gone with a clamshell design because after owning an iphone 4s with gorilla glass has me scratching my head why they didn't use it.
They are doing what they did with the original PSP, games that look and play just as well on my TV.
Price collapses generally don't happen after week 1 (unless you're Final Fantasy), and while week 2 sales for Inazuma Go didn't drop a tonne, there's a tonne of unsold units out there, and as marketing for the 2 games, and the movie come to a close there's likely to be a bunch of games in the bin.
Because clam shell designs are pretty terrible for ergonomics, and after Sony Tablet P I'm not sure anyone would want a Sony designed clam shell device.
Dunno about Yakuza, but neither God Eater nor Phantasy Star are announced for Vita I believe, and Phantasy Star isn't exactly a Sony centric franchise to begin with.
EDIT: Nevermind, misread your post.
December Sales according to each tracker calendar:
Media Create
2005 - NDS - 1,872,865 (5 weeks: 2005-11-28~2006-01-01)
2011 - 3DS - 1,406,174 (5 weeks: 2011-11-28~2012-01-01) [still 1 week left]
Famitsu
2011 - 3DS - 1,492,931 (4 weeks: 2011-11-28~2011-12-26)
2006 - NDS - 1,477,904 (5 weeks: 2006-11-27~2006-12-31)
2005 - NDS - 1,447,719 (4 weeks: 2005-11-28~2005-12-26)
If we compare the same weeks for Media Create and Famitsu:
MCreate - 2005 - NDS - 1,872,865 (5 weeks: 2005-11-28~2006-01-01)
Famitsu - 2005 - NDS - 1,855,914 (5 weeks: 2005-11-28~2006-01-01)
Famitsu - 2011 - 3DS - 1,492,931 (5 weeks: 2011-11-28~2012-01-01) [still 1 week left]
MCreate - 2011 - 3DS - 1,406,174 (5 weeks: 2011-11-28~2012-01-01) [still 1 week left]
Media Create
2005 - NDS - 1,872,865 (5 weeks: 2005-11-28~2006-01-01)
2011 - 3DS - 1,406,174 (5 weeks: 2011-11-28~2012-01-01) [still 1 week left]
Famitsu
2011 - 3DS - 1,492,931 (4 weeks: 2011-11-28~2011-12-26)
2006 - NDS - 1,477,904 (5 weeks: 2006-11-27~2006-12-31)
2005 - NDS - 1,447,719 (4 weeks: 2005-11-28~2005-12-26)
If we compare the same weeks for Media Create and Famitsu:
MCreate - 2005 - NDS - 1,872,865 (5 weeks: 2005-11-28~2006-01-01)
Famitsu - 2005 - NDS - 1,855,914 (5 weeks: 2005-11-28~2006-01-01)
Famitsu - 2011 - 3DS - 1,492,931 (5 weeks: 2011-11-28~2012-01-01) [still 1 week left]
MCreate - 2011 - 3DS - 1,406,174 (5 weeks: 2011-11-28~2012-01-01) [still 1 week left]
djplaeskool
Member
Very true. If Monster Hunter was made by a smaller outfit, they would've been bought long ago.
The only thing Vita-related we've gotten in regards to Phantasy Star is a mysterious tweet about Phantasy Star Victory (PSV).
God Eater 2 is on PSP, IIRC.
I think it's still important to note that the PSP isn't dead, and by this point, is probably pure cash in the bank for Sony.
Still have releases for it lined up through next year.
Zoramon089
Banned
I hope this isn't a serious post...they can't keep it on the same old platform forever. They have to transition over eventually
I guess we'll have to wait and see how the next two weeks hold up.
I don't think it'll reach the heights of 2 or 3, but if it holds steady the next few weeks (without receiving a big price drop), it should be able to do well enough.
Sammy Samusu
Member
I bought myself a new TV and computer, so for the next few months I won't have any money left for a McDonalds, let alone a japanese 3DS.My $2 weave has been snatched
i got my TriG bundle for Christmas, you importing?
Still waiting for the western version (online enabled, of course).
Because I'm assuming Vita's having Wifi model shortages, theres no other way really, I mean holy fuck those are low numbers :/
Poor Sony, I am sure the board meetings at the moment are flailing!
I know this sounds very cynical but I just don't see them recovering from this, I have heard no one talking about wanting this and after talking to three relatives and friends who received a 3DS at Christmas, I asked why they didn't wait for vita they all replied it just looks like a bigger PSP which they hated.
I know this sounds very cynical but I just don't see them recovering from this, I have heard no one talking about wanting this and after talking to three relatives and friends who received a 3DS at Christmas, I asked why they didn't wait for vita they all replied it just looks like a bigger PSP which they hated.
test_account
XP-39C²
I dont think there were any big WiFi model shortages. I think it is more about that the 3DS competition simply was too big this holiday season and that a lot of people had the mind set on the 3DS instead.
frankie_baby
Member
I don't think it is having stock problems
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Don't worry, I'm sure their sales in other consumer electronics will prop up their losses here again... right?
This is by far the worst "will wait for x before buying y" post I've ever read. If Vita were to reach Go level bomba prices no one in the world should buy one.
I'd say they still have about 50% of their shipment on store shelves. Go's debut is the second worst in the series' history, only behind the first iteration, and actually did worse than the Inazuma Eleven 3 expansion pack's first week.
I think the developer behind God Eater has Vita devkits, but they're probably just rendering 3DS models on them or something.
I think the interesting thing about Just Dance is that it's a *third party* evergreen title - that's hugely successful *internationally*.
hardcastlemccormick
Banned
I'm going to wait to buy a Vita once it has an Oreo included without the cream filling.
Looks to me like the Vita is sharing the same problem the 3DS did, well at least in the US.
The DS is still super popular in the states up until around now where I think you may start to see a drop off but the problem is 2 handhelds in the market at the same time from the same company cannibalizes its sales.
I think you are seeing the same thing for the Vita. The PSP is still really popular and successful in Japan and it is cannibalizing on the sales of the Vita. It will take around 6 months or possibly longer for the transition to take effect.
Strong software will help the transition though.
The DS is still super popular in the states up until around now where I think you may start to see a drop off but the problem is 2 handhelds in the market at the same time from the same company cannibalizes its sales.
I think you are seeing the same thing for the Vita. The PSP is still really popular and successful in Japan and it is cannibalizing on the sales of the Vita. It will take around 6 months or possibly longer for the transition to take effect.
Strong software will help the transition though.
omg im sorryI bought myself a new TV and computer, so for the next few months I won't have any money left for a McDonalds, let alone a japanese 3DS.
Still waiting for the western version (online enabled, of course).
Im not expecting a western release never the less online, but i hope the best so we can play online together No
PSP>Wii>PS3>Vita happened.
This thread, as well as the precedent, will enter in the history of Neogaf. No doubt about it.
Would I dare to suggest that the streams may... cross ?
We finally have an evidence as to why the end of the world is happenning in 2012.
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
Is it possible that devs will see poor Vita sales and continue to support the PSP instead of the Vita?
Speaking internationally, the worst case scenario for Sony is this: They have a system built for Japan (i.e. the Japanese like "hardcore," dedicated gaming portables) but software built for the US (ports of PS3/360 games like CoD), and it tanks in both places because the Japanese don't want the software and the dudebros don't want the hardware (dudebros are literally the last demographic I see being willing to give up their big screen TVs).
Best case scenario: Japanese software picks up, and the PSV does what the PSP did in Japan; the US software library becomes highly varied -- not just the number of titles, but also the type of titles, encompassing Android games like Angry birds in the free-5 dollar range, PSN titles in the 5-15 dollar range, cheap-o PSV titles in the 20-30 range, and "big blockbuster" titles in the 35-50 dollar range. This enormous variability manages to attract gamers from a wide variety of interests even if it doesn't dominate and control any of those ecosystems independently.
All of this is vague hand waving, though. I am very much a "let's wait and see what happens" type of person. Consider the phases/cycles of doom and then victory and then despair we've already had:
1) When 3DS was announced, its initial third party support seemed so overwhelming that everyone thought it was a sure fire hit.
2) By the time it launched, due to pricing and battery concerns along with several third party misfires, this opinion had completely changed, and suddenly the 3DS seemed doomed.
3) Vita was announced. With the 3DS weakening, Vita's chances seemed quite good.
4) 3DS price cut and game announcements. Suddenly the 3DS was no longer doomed.
5) Vita launches. Now Vita is doomed.
We've gone back and forth so many times, now, and this is before including any discussion about iOS or Android. But I want to point out that this sort of volatility of opinion should be expected, because the handheld gaming industry is undergoing enormous change and it's especially difficult to see in to the future when fortunes are changing so rapidly. And for precisely that same reason, I don't think it's prudent to be alarmist in regards to the PSV's long term successes.
I feel comfortable saying the next 4-6 months are going to be rough for the system. Beyond that, I'll wait and see. For now, again, all I feel I can offer is vague hand waving.
Best case scenario: Japanese software picks up, and the PSV does what the PSP did in Japan; the US software library becomes highly varied -- not just the number of titles, but also the type of titles, encompassing Android games like Angry birds in the free-5 dollar range, PSN titles in the 5-15 dollar range, cheap-o PSV titles in the 20-30 range, and "big blockbuster" titles in the 35-50 dollar range. This enormous variability manages to attract gamers from a wide variety of interests even if it doesn't dominate and control any of those ecosystems independently.
All of this is vague hand waving, though. I am very much a "let's wait and see what happens" type of person. Consider the phases/cycles of doom and then victory and then despair we've already had:
1) When 3DS was announced, its initial third party support seemed so overwhelming that everyone thought it was a sure fire hit.
2) By the time it launched, due to pricing and battery concerns along with several third party misfires, this opinion had completely changed, and suddenly the 3DS seemed doomed.
3) Vita was announced. With the 3DS weakening, Vita's chances seemed quite good.
4) 3DS price cut and game announcements. Suddenly the 3DS was no longer doomed.
5) Vita launches. Now Vita is doomed.
We've gone back and forth so many times, now, and this is before including any discussion about iOS or Android. But I want to point out that this sort of volatility of opinion should be expected, because the handheld gaming industry is undergoing enormous change and it's especially difficult to see in to the future when fortunes are changing so rapidly. And for precisely that same reason, I don't think it's prudent to be alarmist in regards to the PSV's long term successes.
I feel comfortable saying the next 4-6 months are going to be rough for the system. Beyond that, I'll wait and see. For now, again, all I feel I can offer is vague hand waving.
The little bit of hype which it has will be overshadowed by the next iPad - there is nothing they can do about it, Nintendo had also to deal with it and the iPad 2.
nextgeneration
Member
Ouch at Vita. Once we get out of the holidays, I wonder what Vita will bottom out at. Could it possibly dip under 10k?
Wait, so this is what you were hinting at? Wow, you hit the nail on the head.
This even matches what you heard from that retailer...
Yeah the handheld market in Japan is too important now.
No, they'll move onwards to 3DS, and those who don't make games on Nintendo hardware will move to PS3, or mobile.
I think we can safely move the Vita Doomsday Clock to 11:58 until a price drop hits the market (not when it is announced, but when it is enacted).
After that, we'll see.
talk about standing on the shoulders of giants
It's at times like these that I feel more justified in all the crazy marketing things i've said in the past that i've been doubted on.
I still say that one of the reasons the 3DS was priced so high was because of their market exclusivity on "next-generation" handhelds. They simply took advantage of early buyers and in the end compensated them too. No doubt they obviously realized that there needs to be a better way to handle this with the next systems (because regardless of what I said, they did fuck up and i'm not ignoring this point at all), but I think they probably knew going into this that should it not sell at the price they wanted to, they were going to have to make some cuts.
If the Vita had a closer release window to the 3DS, I don't think they would've had the time to test the waters out and wouldn't have launched at the higher price. Wait for some heavy-hitting Vita games to come out, and it'll get better. Also the memory card shit needs to stop.
I still say that one of the reasons the 3DS was priced so high was because of their market exclusivity on "next-generation" handhelds. They simply took advantage of early buyers and in the end compensated them too. No doubt they obviously realized that there needs to be a better way to handle this with the next systems (because regardless of what I said, they did fuck up and i'm not ignoring this point at all), but I think they probably knew going into this that should it not sell at the price they wanted to, they were going to have to make some cuts.
If the Vita had a closer release window to the 3DS, I don't think they would've had the time to test the waters out and wouldn't have launched at the higher price. Wait for some heavy-hitting Vita games to come out, and it'll get better. Also the memory card shit needs to stop.
13-2 is one of the biggest bombs of this generation. Maybe THE biggest.
yurinka
Member
Fifa use to be a Top 5 best selling game each year in Europe. For sure it will sell.
On consoles for sure, but Vita in Europe is pretty much one very expensive FIFA game everyone already owns.