The problem with Nintendo's approach to the Wii beginning tomorrow is that there's no identity reboot. Granted, the Wii had its identity on day one (something I'd say even the DS didn't until later), but other than the price drop, there's nothing else that, in theory, will finally get Japanese gamers to buy the Wii when they didn't before (excluding the most price conscious customers).
The Wii has its own brand of gaming and it alone. The PS3, meanwhile, became cheaper, smaller and could play Blu-Rays. Japan's government is also currently encouraging consumers to pick up new electronics that are friendly to the environment, including HDTVs, making the PS3 an ideal match.
MH3 and the Black Wii were nice tries, but I think Nintendo needs to be even more aggressive. Unless Wii Fit Plus ends up being a MHP2G, I can't see it having a big effect other than continuing the legs from where the original Wii Fit left off. I think an Apple approach would have worked here. Increase the internal storage, change the packaging up a bit, finally throw in the Classic Controller Pro and Motion + into the package to increase the value.
That's how I see it, but we don't know what the price drop will yield just yet. For all we know, it just might be what Nintendo needs.
