OrangeGrayBlue said:
9 of the 10 highest selling handheld games in Japan last gen were on a Nintendo system. The one Megaseller franchise that Sony had in that top ten is now on a Nintendo system as well. Capcom could announce 3G and 4 for Vita today and it wouldn't matter. The point is that Sony had one card up their sleeve last gen to keep them in the race and they now have none. On the topic of how the Vita will succeed in Japan, Monster Hunter is not an option. It was a Sony exclusive last gen and it is now, in Sony's best case scenario, multiplatform. There's no way this goes in Sony's favor, it's only a matter of whether this ends up being a scraped knee for them or a broken leg. If your point is that you really hope to play MH4, getting a 3DS is the only guaranteed way for you to do so. If your point is that a potential MH port to Vita will answer Sony's problems... sorry, no.
I wonder what the situation is outside of the top ten for third parties. I have heard repeatedly that PSP has excellent third party support in Japan while the DS sort of fell off, and someone posted stats that say similar above.
Gaming isn't an ecosystem where one platform selling the most games is the end-all if all those games are first party. If Nintendo is continuing to have difficulty giving attention to third party titles on the 3DS, I don't see why the Vita couldn't survive while never having a game in the top ten, provided that third party titles sell better on Vita than anywhere else.
I mean, if we similarly examine how in the West first party Wii games outsell pretty much anything else, it doesn't mean that the third party market is all jumping on the Wii bandwagon.
This is the image I'm referring to:
We don't have a good picture of the third-party marketplace in Japan from here, I think. That image is almost meaningless, it gives a picture of an industry where Nintendo is selling a platform that only plays their own games.