i think it has to be stan too

Fitting considering how terrible I am at Dark Souls.

corn and stans flip show 0 anti-town
cm gets lynched 100% the next day

i guess the question we have to ask is if its worth it for cm to get lynched to kill the cop on day 4 with no dead scum

unfortunate that the arsonist had to go off last night though

Yeah, with the results it probably was Stan but damned if CM wasn't shady AF.

Holy shit the Arsonist hit both of the worst possible people they could have. D:

I'll look over everything if possible but I think the Scum was likely to be Stan? It's also possible it was CM too since the Arsonist killed him but with only 1 Anti-Town dead that throws out my theory of CornBro/CM alliance....

As for Nin and his turbo vote, I honestly think it was a mistake. HOWEVER, I don't think the mistake is alignment indicative either way as I've seen Scum and Town accidentally turbo and react the same way.

and unless somebody else would like to get to it first, when I'm not about to run out the door for a Doctor's appointment I'll run some numbers and see how worried we should be about MyLo/LyLo.

Honestly we don't know. We only know that CB and CM weren't allied. We can guess that Trigger was probably telling the truth since there's no good reason to believe otherwise. Stan was probably the scum but any one of Stan, CM, or CB could be. The rest could all be some brand of town fuckery.

I also have a bit of a theory in regards to some of the only concrete info we have ( the Arsonists targets ), but I'll look into that too when I get home.

However, if anybody else would like to venture back and see who defended both Trigger and CM I'm curious to know if anything can be found. I'd assume an Arsonist wouldn't want to lynch their burrow targets so I wonder if we can find anything there.

also think i'm just going to do a proper re-read anyway but I want to get this ball rolling so we don't just sit around all Day Phase.

That also does technically apply to Scum Targets as well but I'm not sure what can be gleamed from those since Scum have a million reasons to NK someone and it's not like they have to plant their NK like the Arsonist does. :x

hey_monkey said:

Yeah, killing Vere and leaving me sets me up for suspicion, especially with FEP and kits prepared to yell at me today. Oh well.

Oh! I guess I was wrong tho? The doctor wouldn't have had an effect against the arsonist, eh? Right? Some of the mechanics things I'm still sticky on. I hope they are still alive and staying secret.

Click to expand...

The doctor can save the anyone from being burrowed into.

I still think you're town so I don't suspect you.

Anyway I'm going to just razor these things and I suggest everyone else does too for their sanity:

Stan = scum
CM/melonrabbit = hypno
Trigger = cop
Verelios = town
others = town

If the doctor is still alive, I highly suggest protecting yourself until the end of the game.

Doctor has to change up targets, unfortunately.

Some math

3. [m] nin1000
4. [m] Muffin1611
5. [m] isaacnukem
7. [f] kitsunelaine
9. [m] oreomunsta
10. [m] flatearthpandas
14. [f] hey_monkey
15. [f] sawneeks
17. [m] rac

We currently have 9 Players left with only 1 confirmed Anti-Town player dead. Considering the Arsonist's targets died last Night we can safely assume the Anti-Town player who died is not the Neutral. This leaves us with: 6 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral player left.

IF we mislynch today we will be at: 5 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral.

Neutral can not Burrow and Ignite in the same Night according to the Role PM in the opening so we'd only be looking at 1 NK.

On Day 5 we would be at 4 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral. Due to the nature of the Neutral this technically isn't LyLo/MyLo as lynching the Neutral here doesn't make Scum automatically win and lynching Town doesn't let Scum win either.

Another NK here and the possibility of the Arsonist killing 1 person starts to diverge the paths a little bit. But, 1 kill or 2, on Day 6 we'd be looking at a bad spot.

Day 6 ( with 1 mislynch and 1 NK ): 2 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral. MyLo if the Neutral is lynched.
Day 6 ( with 1 mislynch and 2 NKs ): Some variation of 1 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral OR 2 Town, 1 Scum, and 1 Neutral.

basically we're in an OK spot for this Day Phase and the next but after that we are not going to be in a good place.

Now that you mention it... But it's weird though. The role says it provides no benefit to the doctor but at the end it says you can cooperate with yourself. Alternate cooperation with someone the doctor thinks is surely town? With the way things are set up, they can increase the chances of them living to the end where hopefully they can take out the remaining anti-town.

Anyway, there is still a huge chance the doc is alive. Trigger and CMR's claims were made yesterday, and the arsonist could've only chosen to ignite so the doctor probably tried to save Trigger but to no avail since he was already burrowed.

I assume the doctor has confirmed that wording with squidyj if necessary.

So based on Sawneeks' math and oreo's math from earlier, today and tomorrow are really important.

I'm gonna do some re-reading tonight myself.

All that math means to me is doom, so I don't look at it. Every day is an important day in Lordran, treat it as if its our last.

looking over the votes seems stanley, nin, and kits have been having a little triangle thing going on

rac said:

looking over the votes seems stanley, nin, and kits have been having a little triangle thing going on

Click to expand...

Is it rated M for Mature because I'm underage and these things aren't for my eyes

isaacnukem said:

Is it rated M for Mature because I'm underage and these things aren't for my eyes

Click to expand...

would scum care if your'e underage?

I'll be out for most of the evening and I'm only a little into Day 1 but I have some questions/observations:

FEP, what do you currently think of Kits?

holy shit I keep forgetting Kits is in this game.

Most of the early big-talkers of Day 1 are dead....

oreomunsta said:

At this point, there's no sense trying to forecast. The amount of possibilities that scum and neutral can do in just two nights splits the odds so much.

Click to expand...

Question for you Oreo. You said this way early on Day 1 and yet most, if not all, of your game since then has just been about forecasting the future by the numbers games. Why are you going against your earlier thoughts?

isaacnukem said:

All that math means to me is doom, so I don't look at it. Every day is an important day in Lordran, treat it as if its our last.

Click to expand...

If you had to lynch somebody right now who would that be and why.

rac said:

looking over the votes seems stanley, nin, and kits have been having a little triangle thing going on

Click to expand...

Can you give any examples of what you saw and what Day(s) they were on?

Well, uhhh, this night wasn't good

Catching up right now

rac said:

would scum care if your'e underage?

Click to expand...

Probably not. It's a kill everyone type of game.

Sawneeks said:

If you had to lynch somebody right now who would that be and why?

Click to expand...

I'm probably going to go for nin1000, solely because of his antics, but I'll be looking back into Stanley's posts with more scrutiny to see if there are stuff I've missed.

I'm not sure how I feel about oreamunsta and rac.

hey_monkey is still my strongest town read. I think kits is town too. You are too, but I have to wonder why you're still here with your level of participation. At this point, the only movers are you and monkey. I can say the same for monkey but I feel like I know her town game more than yours so no hard feelings if we get to a point where I have to choose between you two

Oh wait, Muffin is still here, I'll put you in between rac and oreamunsta.

Town
hey_monkey
kits
Sawneeks

Neutral
oreamunsta
Muffin
rac

Scum
nin

Sawneeks said:

Can you give any examples of what you saw and what Day(s) they were on?

Click to expand...

d1
both stanley and kits joke vote fep

flatearthpandas (0)
kitsunelaine 110 (418)
stanleypalmtree 361 (436)

both stanley and kits vote nin, stanley's looks like a joke vote, kits stays there

nin1000 (2)
stanleypalmtree 185 (361)
kitsunelaine 418
muffin1611 483 (528)
fireblend 500

d2

kits stays on nin again

nin1000 (2)
cornburrito 759
kitsunelaine 784

both nin and stanley vote for kits

kitsunelaine (2)
nin1000 779
stanleypalmtree 792

ill do d3 after i get back but basically kits votes nin multiple times, stanley joke votes nin again

kits ends on nin and nin puts the final vote on stanley

sorry if its hard to read, i felt like it was better to leave the other votes on as well

Sawneeks said:

Some math

3. [m] nin1000
4. [m] Muffin1611
5. [m] isaacnukem
7. [f] kitsunelaine
9. [m] oreomunsta
10. [m] flatearthpandas
14. [f] hey_monkey
15. [f] sawneeks
17. [m] rac

We currently have 9 Players left with only 1 confirmed Anti-Town player dead. Considering the Arsonist's targets died last Night we can safely assume the Anti-Town player who died is not the Neutral. This leaves us with: 6 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral player left.

IF we mislynch today we will be at: 5 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral.

Neutral can not Burrow and Ignite in the same Night according to the Role PM in the opening so we'd only be looking at 1 NK.

On Day 5 we would be at 4 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral. Due to the nature of the Neutral this technically isn't LyLo/MyLo as lynching the Neutral here doesn't make Scum automatically win and lynching Town doesn't let Scum win either.

Another NK here and the possibility of the Arsonist killing 1 person starts to diverge the paths a little bit. But, 1 kill or 2, on Day 6 we'd be looking at a bad spot.

Day 6 ( with 1 mislynch and 1 NK ): 2 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral. MyLo if the Neutral is lynched.
Day 6 ( with 1 mislynch and 2 NKs ): Some variation of 1 Town, 2 Scum, and 1 Neutral OR 2 Town, 1 Scum, and 1 Neutral.

basically we're in an OK spot for this Day Phase and the next but after that we are not going to be in a good place.

Click to expand...

So, we don't have to worry about a MyLo/LyLo situation today or tomorrow? Do I understand this right?

Sawneeks said:

Question for you Oreo. You said this way early on Day 1 and yet most, if not all, of your game since then has just been about forecasting the future by the numbers games. Why are you going against your earlier thoughts?

Click to expand...

Honestly it was a case of me trying to prove to myself if something was foreseeable or not. People's first analyses weren't clicking with me and I found them hard to follow, so thought the endeavor wasn't useful until I tried it out.

With some limitations to the scenarios I could cover (lynch/no lynch, inactive/inefficient/efficient neutral), there were some predictions that could be made.

You did a good recap of where the game could go from here, Sawneeks. On mobile right now, but I'm going to see if I can corroborate your forecast with one of my scenarios.

isaacnukem said:

Is it rated M for Mature because I'm underage and these things aren't for my eyes

Click to expand...

Lol, thanks for the laugh. Isaac, you seem a bit more engaged today. Did something change?

I'll be back in a bit with some thoughts, just caught up.

I do also want to add that I didn't read much into the turbo. Tbh, I was happy to see it because I was worried people would talk themselves out of it and that lynch needed to happen. Will think about it some more though

flatearthpandas said:

Lol, thanks for the laugh. Isaac, you seem a bit more engaged today. Did something change?

Click to expand...

Darn it, I missed one. Put you on the neutral pile, right above orea.

Anyway, I have free time, which is rare, so enjoy it while it lasts. Though now that I've caught up I'll try not to get left behind anymore.

Okay, got all my data added.

So, basically, here's what we know for sure.

Town:
Burbeting
Fireblend
Verelios
Lord of Castamere

Possible scum:
1 of:
Trigger
CornBurrito
Christina Mackenzie
StanleyPalmtree

I think it most likely was Stan. I said from the beginning that anyone who even joked about being scum while under hypnosis had to be lynched. Stan still made the joke. There wasn't much else he could do as scum. He had to claim but if he wanted to do it in a way so that some might be inclined to talk themselves out of the lynch or his teammates might try and talk us out, a joke had to be it. No reason whatsoever for town to do this.

Moreover, why I'm inclined to believe CM: he never claimed a second target. From the beginning he was dodgy about clearing anyone with his cop check or even saying something like what night he actually checked Stan (IIRC, although we would assume it would be N2). As scum, giving a fake clear is the easiest shit in the world. Especially in this game, even if you flat out lied town wouldn't really be able to know since we don't get flips. So why not throw in a clear to make the claim more believable? Because he really did have some kind of plan, I think, though we may never know what it was.

CB I don't think was a terrible lynch, but I'm inclined now to think he just wasn't keeping up rather than deliberately obfuscating.

Trigger countered with a full claim. Not in scum's best interest to counter the cop. We could WIFOM into a why, but it's unlikely. More interesting here though, is why scum didn't try and NK Trigger last night? Worry from the doctor? Hard to say, but leaving the cop alive is ballsy. They couldn't count on the neutral even if the neutral would want him dead.


Anyway, any of those four could be the scum. I very much believe it was stan. Scum has been having a very lucky game. No crossed targets, no lynching or NK of the neutral targets. And the scum we (probably) got was also very lucky. CM didn't have to fake claim, but he did probably actually hit scum with hypnosis. So lucky us.

This leaves us with:
hey_monkey: cop cleared. trying to argue off of the extremely likely scum exposure. the excuse of not being sure doesn't fly with me because we just finished love boat 2, where the number one lesson should be lynch suspicious crap and don't let town hookers live. hypnotized people claiming scum as a "joke" are town hookers. lynch them. reserving judgement for now but as i said yesterday, not impressed with that.

nin1000: no strong thoughts, doing this list off the top of my head. i said earlier that i really appreciated the turbo, but then he did it in the most clueless and actually kind of shady way possible so i don't really like that aspect. something for me to look into.

muffin1611: not a lot of thoughts off the top of my head. pretty good feeling.

isaacnukem: strange to see this spike in activity but not necessarily alignment indicative. if you've got more free time, that's great.

kitsunelaine: saw, you asked me for a read. i don't have many deep reads right now. kits is playing a lot like lb, where she was my scum partner. she's been under very light pressure this game though. worth pursuing today.

oreomunsta: i still feel good about oreo. if he is trying to misdirect town, he's doing it very naturally. while i still think that he and i came to the wrong conclusions day 1, I think we were both doing it with the proper spirit. town read.

sawneeks: my other scum buddy from a few weeks back. was a bit nervous at first, as i saw some play that reminded me of lb but that feeling has faded. i need to read over again to make sure i didn't just miss anything, but i feel pretty good about saw so far. i could go into more detail but i'd rather not really coach it one way or another.

rac: don't have a big read on rac. neutral to good feelings.

flatearthpandas: it'sa me.


Anyway, three of these people are scum. I need to do some deeper reads on some and I still haven't given much thought to voting patterns yet for today.

Looking at D2, I think it's pretty unlikely that nin, stan, and kits are all a scum team. Otherwise that is some unprecedented fuckery and I tip my hats to them. Both Stan and Nin were on kits at the end of the day. Both Stan and Kits were on Nin at some people. Stan jumped off before kits voted however.

CM was on stan the whole time basically. Easy to buy that he would have hypnotized that night since he couldn't get traction.

I would say I'm more inclined to believe scum team was Stan, Kits, and ?? (not nin). Although both kits and stan shared a vote on me d1 which would be unusual behavior, kits was a joke vote and stan was pressuring in a fairly townie way.

Vote: Kitsunelaine

I'm calling scum. Very similar to the scum play I'm intimately familiar with. And then the nin vote yesterday. I'll reread the nin case today but really yesterday it was just not going to happen. The somehow missing that a cop check had happened is kind of good vibes because scum shouldn't be doing things like that... of course town shouldn't either. But the second nin vote. That was scum as hell and those excuses don't fly. Contested claims, blatant anti-town shit coming from all sides, there is no case to be made for a third party. At least, not at that time. However, monkey was basically the same except pushing a much more dangerous target i.e. one that could actually potentially swing people off of stan. Trigger was also there but I'm pretty sure he was town. Stan was on that vote as well.

So let's pretend trigger was just a miffed cop really not having the fake claim. Scum still kind of wants to protect stan if possible... I guess. Seems dumb but whatever. Monkey is godfather with the green check, even easier to team up with trigger who checked her and jump on the CM vote. Stan obviously votes for preservation, even though he supposedly had given up and that's why it was okay to joke about being scum in the hypnosis state. Nah. He was in the game, he had given up because he was exposed but still going through the motions. Anyway, scum kits can't really jump on this suicide protection. Has no coaching from a team, but doesn't want to contribute to teammate lynch. Continues the nin hate, where coincidentally stan had also tossed his vote. Reads alright to me.

Neutral is of course on the stan vote. Stan isn't burrowed, is exposed scum, neutral wants that motherfucker dead. Isaac, feps, saw are most likely neutrals imo. It ain't me.

Oh right, great news everyone! We had bad luck with scum targets but we actually have decent info on the neutral now. It wasn't that, but I'll get into that later.

If either monkey or kits are not scum, I would say third scum is also on the stan vote. That could be anyone on there tbh. No one is clear on that.


Anyway, I'll leave my vote on kits now but kind of talked my way partially out of it as I went. There's a case there but... yeah, enough to leave the vote for now. Saw, if you have suspicions you should make a case. I'm hunting arsonists today. If I don't find one, I feel fairly confident can still get mafia with a kits lynch.

Well shit. Three town dead? The outlook sucks. I'm surprised the Neutral killed us now instead of waiting to douse more people. Perhaps it's because we're on their trail? Maybe they didn't think they'd live another day phase?

Pretty sure the neutral went for the kill because Trigger cop claimed and the neutral already burrowed him before.

FEP, I stuck on Nin because it was the read I was most confident in. Uncertainty was generated with the conflicting claims on D3 and I wasn't comfortable putting my lynch towards someone who could theoretically be time. Why are you ruling Nin out, exactly?

Town. Not time. Goddammit.

The neutral kill was expected. I think we'll see it every other day now unless we lynch them or their burrows. We definitely weren't onto them. CM had a decent chance of being lynched today. With him already burrowed and possibly scum to boot, plus the cop burrowed, neutral was definitely going to ignite.

kitsunelaine said:

FEP, I stuck on Nin because it was the read I was most confident in. Uncertainty was generated with the conflicting claims on D3 and I wasn't comfortable putting my lynch towards someone who could theoretically be time. Why are you ruling Nin out, exactly?

Click to expand...

Not ruling him out. But hammering scum is usually good town play. When it's obvious scum it's less endearing of course but still better than actively pushing other lynches.

flatearthpandas said:

Not ruling him out. But hammering scum is usually good town play. When it's obvious scum it's less endearing of course but still better than actively pushing other lynches.

Click to expand...

But your actual post suggests otherwise.

I would say I'm more inclined to believe scum team was Stan, Kits, and ?? (not nin)

Click to expand...

"Not nin". Why not nin?

kitsunelaine said:

But your actual post suggests otherwise.



"Not nin". Why not nin?

Click to expand...

I don't think you and nin are on the same team. If i had to guess a team right now, i would put you on it which means i would have to leave nin off.

flatearthpandas said:

The neutral kill was expected. I think we'll see it every other day now unless we lynch them or their burrows. We definitely weren't onto them. CM had a decent chance of being lynched today. With him already burrowed and possibly scum to boot, plus the cop burrowed, neutral was definitely going to ignite.

Click to expand...

Agreed. I think the neutral also had someone else burrowed who died another way, or we'd have another dead.

Scum so far has killed talkative, generally town read players. Sawneeks and FEP are most likely next targets if they are as town aligned as they seem. The neutral has done the opposite. Trigger and CMrabbit were quieter until last phase. I would guess the neutral had CB burrowed then as well as the other quieter player who has been killed. I'm in mobile so I may amend this in a bit but the neutral may be hoping to hit people flying under the radar. Of course, after an ignite their strat may change.

flatearthpandas said:

I don't think you and nin are on the same team. If i had to guess a team right now, i would put you on it which means i would have to leave nin off.

Click to expand...

Right. So, in your eyes, either I'm scum or Nin is.

When you vote me out and no scum is revealed to have died, please keep your word and go after Nin.

There was no other borrow. N1 burrow n2 burrow n3 ignite. Arsonist can burrow or ignite, not both.

kitsunelaine said:

Right. So, in your eyes, either I'm scum or Nin is.

When you vote me out and no scum is revealed to have died, please keep your word and go after Nin.

Click to expand...

No. In my eyes, you aren't both scum. You could both be town, to be fair, but i don't think you're both scum. I do think you may be scum though whereas nin sits more neutral for me now.

flatearthpandas said:

There was no other borrow. N1 burrow n2 burrow n3 ignite. Arsonist can burrow or ignite, not both.

Click to expand...

Oh, you're right; my bad. But lower-activity still. Probably hoping for people less likely to be lynched. Which makes me wonder, since the game has been so math-dominated - is the arsonist interested in us living longer so they can do their work, or dying faster? As in: would the arsonist be more or less likely to be in the no-lynch group? I don't know that particularly matters, but the different target approaches has me thinking a bit.

anyway, got some catching up to do.

flatearthpandas said:

No. In my eyes, you aren't both scum. You could both be town, to be fair, but i don't think you're both scum. I do think you may be scum though whereas nin sits more neutral for me now.

Click to expand...

Well, y'see, the difference between you and I is that I know I'm town. I'm probing you for possibilities that include that fact. And even if Nin is not scum but Neutral, we should still lynch him, since the Neutral is doing a lot of damage to us.

everyone knows they're town until they're not

rac said:

everyone knows they're town until they're not

Click to expand...

Well yeah. I'm not expecting this to convince anyone that I'm town. What I'm saying is that I personally know I am, so I'm fishing more for reads that take that into account.

kitsunelaine said:

Well yeah. I'm not expecting this to convince anyone that I'm town. What I'm saying is that I personally know I am, so I'm fishing more for reads that take that into account.

Click to expand...

????

I legit do not understand what you are saying here, because it reads as "I want people to townread me because I know I'm town," and I assume that's not what you're trying to say.

Trying to look back over votes and the vote tool only gives me half of d3. I can look in the thread but I'm just wondering if anyone else is having this issue?

Welp, my scum reads have been super off so I'm just gonna try to do a deep dive here from a couple of angles and see what I can observe.

In partnership with FEP's list above:

Killed by scum:
Burbeting
LordOfCastamere
Verelios (green-checked by claimed cop)

Killed by arsonist:
Christina Mackenzierabbit (claimed hypnotist)
Trigger (claimed cop)

Killed by town:
Fireblend (definitely town)
CornBurrito
StanleyPalmtree*

*probably scum (other candidates: CornBurrito, Christina Mackenzie, Trigger)
My guess is Trigger was not the scum. While it's probably Stan, it could legitimately be Stan, CB, or CM and we will never know. UGH.)

Possible angles of inquiry:
Did anyone who's still around throw shade at Trigger/vice versa? We kinda figured the arsonist would ignite last night but if Trigger was the cop there's a possibility he might have found the arsonist.

If arsonist might want us to live longer so they have higher chance to ignore more, then the math folks might be suspect here. It's easy to make pushes there to appear town and to use it to get a measure of people. This would make oreomunsta, FEP, Sawneeks, and me possibilities as we've all had different pushes on ways to survive longer. oreo would be primary among these as he's mostly focused on the numbers and trying to max survival scenarios. But I don't know if this is a fruitful line of questioning at all, honestly.

Who was not active in trying to figure out what went down on d3? A few candidates there.

Going through votes and reads and stuff but will break up the posts.

hey_monkey said:

????

I legit do not understand what you are saying here, because it reads as "I want people to townread me because I know I'm town," and I assume that's not what you're trying to say.

Click to expand...

I want FEP's reads specifically. Because I'm curious. In the event that I am town I want to know what he would think. Since I know I am town, it is not my job to convince everyone else that I am town, it's my job to find and lynch scum. And in service of this, I am asking for a read from someone who thinks I am scum in an effort to steer them in more of a, what I deem to be, town-leaning direction.

its also interesting to think about if cm never claims cop

trigger gets only one more check to find scum and then he's dead
at least we got the two checks out there instead of none at all

kitsunelaine said:

I want FEP's reads specifically. Because I'm curious. In the event that I am town I want to know what he would think. Since I know I am town, it is not my job to convince everyone else that I am town, it's my job to find and lynch scum. And in service of this, I am asking for a read from someone who thinks I am scum in an effort to steer them in more of a, what I deem to be, town-leaning direction.

Click to expand...

...and that helps you find and lynch scum how exactly?

Or let me rephrase: what are you doing today to find and lynch scum?