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Mr. RPG · May 25, 2017

Today there is a special election for the single US House seat in Montana. Taking back the house and senate is paramount. Today's outcome could be the beginning of a revolution for Democrats if Rob Quist, the Democratic candidate, wins.

A few important things to note:

Montana has same day voter registration. Information about voting in Montana can be found here.
Polls close at 8PM MST.

Here is some background information on the political climate in Montana:

While Montana hasn't elected a Democrat to the House in two decades, Democrats have had good success in both the local and state level. Montana just recently reelected their Democratic governor and they also have a Democratic senator. Democrats have actually controlled the governorship in Montana for over 10 years now and until just recently controlled both senate seats.

This election is hard to judge and predict for a variety of reasons. The republican candidate who just lost the gubernatorial election just recently assaulted a reporter the day before the election. There have been very few polls conducted for this election and it being a special election for an open seat makes it more difficult to predict.

This isn't a sure win for Republicans. If a similar drop in turn out occurs like in the Kansas and Georgia elections we have had this year, then Quist should win. I'll post more analysis about this election throughout the day.

whitemex88 · May 25, 2017

I'd say that the Republicans body slammed their chances of winning out the window

RPGamer92 · May 25, 2017

whitemex88 said:
I'd say that the Republicans body slammed their chances of winning out the window

kek.
Did that guy drop out?

RPGCrazied · May 25, 2017

whitemex88 said:
I'd say that the Republicans body slammed their chances of winning out the window

Sarcasm? He will probably win, even with this news of assault.

GusBus · May 25, 2017

Go Quist! Love the state of Montana. My plan is to move to Missoula within the next couple of years

ElectricBlanketFire · May 25, 2017

Neoweee · May 25, 2017

The Republican probably wins today, given how big early voting is in the state. Day-of voters would probably need a substantial swing based on the violent assault for Quist to come through with a win.

Poltergust · May 25, 2017

RPGamer92 said:
kek.
Did that guy drop out?

We wouldn't be having this thread if he did.

Tallshortman · May 25, 2017

RPGamer92 said:
kek.
Did that guy drop out?

LOL hell no, he'd have to have been in jail for murder for him to drop out.

whitemex88 · May 25, 2017

RPGCrazied said:
Sarcasm? He will probably win, even with this news of assault.

Eh, sort of sarcastic. But mostly just fruitless hope

chekhonte · May 25, 2017

I suppose that this is the right thread to ask.

What politics podcasts do you people listen to? I'm aware of that many. All I have are NPR politics, fivethirtyeight. Those two don't really cover enough.

Xe4 · May 25, 2017

whitemex88 said:
I'd say that the Republicans body slammed their chances of winning out the window

LOL, there's a greater than 50% chance of him winning, and if he does, all that will further confirm to me is that America deserves to be thrown in the god damn trash.

sturgboski · May 25, 2017

Tallshortman said:
LOL hell no, he'd have to have been in jail for murder for him to drop out.

Eh even then...

RPGCrazied · May 25, 2017

What would it take to remove an elected congressman? I'm guessing Republican help. lol

Can't look to that.

ChemicalCutthroat · May 25, 2017

Really looking forward to the next Farcry.

Dead Prince · May 25, 2017

whitemex88 said:
I'd say that the Republicans body slammed their chances of winning out the window

nah he just shows his dominance in that he'll win this.

studyguy · May 25, 2017

The unfortunate thing that the majority of the ballots have gone in already by mail sucks. All the same if things were polling as tight as they were, one can hope same day ballots can swing it, but nothing is assured atm. The papers have all rescinded their endorsements of Gianforte and all major networks were basically covering the assault 24/7, so it's not like the word hasn't gotten around.

All the same I expect if he wins, there will be a narrative of "Republicans invincible!" or some such deal when really it's just a matter of things being decided before the assault occurred.

alr1ght · May 25, 2017

You can do your job while you're in jail.

Cesare Borgia · May 25, 2017

whitemex88 said:
I'd say that the Republicans body slammed their chances of winning out the window

He's probably still going to win. I don't believe there's enough time for the CBO report of the assault to shift the vote to the democrat. Hope I'm wrong.

I feel better about the Georgia special election.

Link · May 25, 2017

Tallshortman said:
LOL hell no, he'd have to have been in jail for murder for him to drop out.

Honestly, I'm not sure even that would stop a GOP candidate in some parts of this country.

balladofwindfishes · May 25, 2017

Note: Even if Democrats lose this by 1-5% it will still be a MASSIVE shift to Democrats

Xe4 · May 25, 2017

chekhonte said:
I suppose that this is the right thread to ask.

What politics podcasts do you people listen to? I'm aware of that many. All I have are NPR politics, fivethirtyeight. Those two don't really cover enough.

Washington Week on PBS is a show, but comes with a really good podcast (just the audio of the show), as it's just people talking really.

Keepin it 1600 is pretty good, though a bit more bias than NPR, PBS and fivethirtyeight.

ChemicalCutthroat said:
Really looking forward to the next Farcry.

lol, in a more sane world I would've joked the assault was viral marketing.

Link said:
Honestly, I'm not sure even that would stop a GOP candidate in some parts of this country.

160125114628-donald-trump-quote-shoot-somebody-medium-plus-169.jpg

kris. · May 25, 2017

chekhonte said:
I suppose that this is the right thread to ask.

What politics podcasts do you people listen to? I'm aware of that many. All I have are NPR politics, fivethirtyeight. Those two don't really cover enough.

my rotation right now consists of Pod Save America, NPR Politics, FiveThirtyEight, NYT's The Daily, and Left Right & Center.

i hope Montanans show up today after what happened last night.

Lord Frieza · May 25, 2017

Neoweee said:
The Republican probably wins today, given how big early voting is in the state. Day-of voters would probably need a substantial swing based on the violent assault for Quist to come through with a win.

You have it backwards. Early voting favors Democrats, day of favors GOP

Drakeon · May 25, 2017

chekhonte said:
I suppose that this is the right thread to ask.

What politics podcasts do you people listen to? I'm aware of that many. All I have are NPR politics, fivethirtyeight. Those two don't really cover enough.

Pod Save America is fantastic if you're looking for one for liberals/Democrats.

RPGCrazied · May 25, 2017

I wonder if he won if he would wear the kick ass cowboy hat around Congress. Seems to war it everywhere.

Finale Fireworker · May 25, 2017

balladofwindfishes said:
Note: Even if Democrats lose this by 1-5% it will still be a MASSIVE shift to Democrats

A loss is still a loss. Maybe taking the seat four or six more years from now isn't a comforting consolation with the urgency of today's political climate.

I get what you're saying, and I don't disagree, but the left needs wins now. No amount of "it was closer than ever before" assuages the agony of constant defeat.

chekhonte said:
I suppose that this is the right thread to ask.

What politics podcasts do you people listen to? I'm aware of that many. All I have are NPR politics, fivethirtyeight. Those two don't really cover enough.

Any of the Podcasts from Crooked Media (Pod Save America, Pod Save the World, Pod Save the People, With Friends Like These) and Chapo Trap House. Although Chapo isn't strictly politics - at least not as strict as I'd prefer.

Saucycarpdog · May 25, 2017

benicillin · May 25, 2017

I really, really hope Quist wins. Make it happen, dems!

RC0101 · May 25, 2017

Lord Frieza said:
You have it backwards. Early voting favors Democrats, day of favors GOP

This isn't entirely true for Montana since large parts are rural.

Regulus Tera · May 25, 2017

I was expecting a WWE style op

Iksenpets · May 25, 2017

Lord Frieza said:
You have it backwards. Early voting favors Democrats, day of favors GOP

Also, early voters are mostly hard partisans who couldn't have been swayed either way. The people voting on Election Day are also the people most likely to be swayed by something like this.

Mr. RPG · May 25, 2017

RC0101 said:
This isn't entirely true for Montana since large parts are rural.

Yeah, BlastProcessing had a good post about it in the other thread.

I still think Quist is leading the early vote, although by a very small margin.

DonShula · May 25, 2017

I'm going to be very disappointed if Greg The Body wins today. If a dude with a lot of money, Russia ties, and no decorum can assault a journalist and still be elected, the GOP voters are far dumber than I expected. The whole "where's our jobs?" is one thing, but this ignorant shit is entirely something else. Physically hurting people you don't agree with is not something anyone should do, let alone an elected official.

I'm preparing to be very disappointed.

Lord Frieza · May 25, 2017

Finale Fireworker said:
A loss is still a loss. Maybe taking the seat four or six more years from now isn't a comforting consolation with the urgency of today's political climate.

I get what you're saying, and I don't disagree, but the left needs wins now. Now amount of "it was closer than ever before" assuages the agony of constant defeat.

Dems just flipped two red State seats that have never had Democrats elected

C.Mongler · May 25, 2017

whitemex88 said:
I'd say that the Republicans body slammed their chances of winning out the window

If anything the average Montana voter probably likes that he assaulted a "liberal reporter".

CHC · May 25, 2017

plz montana, plz

balladofwindfishes · May 25, 2017

Finale Fireworker said:
A loss is still a loss. Maybe taking the seat four or six more years from now isn't a comforting consolation with the urgency of today's political climate.

I get what you're saying, and I don't disagree, but the left needs wins now. Now amount of "it was closer than ever before" assuages the agony of constant defeat.

Because these special elections keep happening in +15-20 R regions where winning was always a long shot. These wins aren't going to happen "now," but they still show dramatic shifts in the electorate that should be looked at positively. Because if this district is reduced to an R+5 from an R+20, and we apply that shift to the entire country, the Democrats take the house and actually stand a chance at the senate in 2018.

Gaz_RB · May 25, 2017

GusBus said:
Go Quist! Love the state of Montana. My plan is to move to Missoula within the next couple of years

Don't.

Come to Bozeman.

Finale Fireworker · May 25, 2017

Lord Frieza said:
Dems just flipped two red State seats that have never had Democrats elected

State seats are good, obviously. I don't mean to undermine the necessity of local politics.

But they're small potatoes when so much is currently in jeopardy on a federal level, you know? These smaller victories will feel a lot bigger and better when they supplement wins like Quist or Ossoff.

demosthenes · May 25, 2017

whitemex88 said:
I'd say that the Republicans body slammed their chances of winning out the window

Npr said this morning that 2/3 voted early.

RC0101 · May 25, 2017

Mr. RPG said:
Yeah, BlastProcessing had a good post about it in the other thread.

I still think Quist is leading the early vote, although by a very small margin.

He has had the momentum the last few weeks I would say. Having Bernie here I think really helped him.

FTF · May 25, 2017

I don't have much hope for that scumbag losing :/

Steejee · May 25, 2017

Shame you can't rescind your vote. Given how much of Montana votes by mail and early, this election could already be decided. If the assault had been a few days ago, maybe that would have been when it would have really had an impact.

Zolo · May 25, 2017

demosthenes said:
Npr said this morning that 2/3 voted early.

Yeah. This will still have an effect, but it wouldn't the effect it would if this happened weeks ago.

RPGCrazied · May 25, 2017

So the guy is an Independent? Don't know who is, but he is the opponent of the violent Republican. Automatically would get my vote.

Duxxy3 · May 25, 2017

I'm guessing that the wrestler still wins. Morons really love voting for morons.

daveo42 · May 25, 2017

I think the hope now is that he's forced out of office after being found guilty of misdemeanor assault. All the extra hubbub in the press over the election itself is far more for show than an actual push to keep him from being elected. More like a push towards pulling out of the race before things get worse for him.

Not that it'll happen.

Lys Skygge · May 25, 2017

Good luck Montana! Wish I still lived there and could cast a vote. But motivating my friends to vote will have to do!

Blader · May 25, 2017

RPGCrazied said:
So the guy is an Independent? Don't know who is, but he is the opponent of the violent Republican. Automatically would get my vote.

Quist is a Democrat.

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Montana US House Special Election Thread [GOP Hold]

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