No the fuck we don't lol. There is nothing Leondexter posted that proves his statement true. Absolutely nothing. All we have is him and you providing baseless anecdotes that are entirely worthless considering how large the game industry is. The only thing his statement means that the sales that they might get from those customers will disappear. Theres no way you, him or anybody else can say that there wouldn't be new sales to take their place.
sorry
All else being equal, where are all these additional sales supposed to be
coming from, exactly? You're talking about a scenario where consumers won't be able to recoup part of the cost of games they're no longer interested in. So the stakes become higher, but people will somehow become
less risk-averse? You're going to conveniently assume that their entertainment budgets are infinitely malleable, despite numerous statements to the effect that the trade-in cycle is the only thing that enables some people to keep up on new releases and without it, they'd buy less games? Or that sales and price cuts are a viable substitute, despite the fact that these are typically applied to older titles while the industry pushes hard to get consumers to buy day one? (The implicit understanding being that the longer you wait, the less worthwhile the experience is going to be, especially with games that have an online component/community - and like it or not, that's more and more games nowadays.) Is the only way to actually get you to acknowledge the validity of these peoples' statements to conduct a poll and present you with percentages, or would you dismiss that as anecdotal evidence as well? At this point, I suspect you would.
There's no way you, him, or anybody else can say that a supermassive asteroid impact won't obliterate all life on Earth tomorrow, either. But based on the evidence we have, the chance of this occurring is so vanishingly small as to be meaningless. IMO, the same holds true here - with what we know about consumer spending habits in this space, there's nothing to suggest that there
would be a sudden uptick in new game purchases across the board to compensate for the loss you'd see, and everything to suggest that there
wouldn't.
I think the evidence here is pretty clear-cut. We can extrapolate from the data we have with a high degree of certainty. If you want to keep telling yourself that eliminating used game sales wouldn't have a negative impact on the sale of new releases in the face of all we know, more power to you. Personally, it strikes me as denial.