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ziran · Nov 18, 2006

Reuters

For those who haven't pre-ordered in NA, Nintendo has said they hope to sell, and therefore ship, 2 million Wii units by the 2nd week in January:

Fils-Aime expects to have sold 1 million Wii units in the Americas by early December, and 2 million by the second week in January.

So, I'd guess, by Dec 31st:
~1.8 million for NA
~1.2 million for Japan
~1 million for Europe and the rest of the world

There was another interesting quote from Reggie:

Fils-Aime said a four, five or even six year life span for the console will be "just about right."

I'd be happy to see as long a cycle for Wii as possible so developers can perfect controls in a variety of genres and so we see some great new games.

UPDATE:

Nintendo Canada, GamesIndustry.biz:

"We have 4 million units ready to go, which is something our competitors have struggled with... Historically a bit more than half of our worldwide shipment would go to North America, I think thats probably a good estimate."

More than 2 million units will be available in NA by Dec 31st?

Also:

"Canada is more important than its actual market size," Trépanier said.

"Not only is Canada 10 per cent of North America, which is significant, but the Canadian subsidiary of Nintendo is widely regarded as one of the best subsidiaries in the world on a whole bunch of measures including profit per employee and market share."

So, it sounds like Canada will be receiving ~10% of Wii shipments, ~200k by the end of the year.

Amir0x · Nov 18, 2006

"four, five or even six years" is a pretty large range, really. If it's four years, then the life span is terrible and shitty (Xbox). And if it's six years, it's just right and not out of the normal and in some cases you even go longer (PS2).

So I mean I wish he would have said "it'll be ten years" or something!

NotWii · Nov 18, 2006

Amir0x said:
So I mean I wish he would have said "it'll be ten years" or something!

They said that for the GameCube

I think Nintendo will move on either when sales start to slow down, HD becomes more common or development starts getting really restricted by hardware.

They delayed the GBA a whole year cause the GBC was on a roll.

Amir0x · Nov 18, 2006

Wii said:
They said that for the GameCube

I think Nintendo will move on either when sales start to slow down, HD becomes more common or development starts getting really restricted by hardware.

They delayed the GBA a whole year cause the GBC was on a roll.

oh i know, i don't expect Nintendo to stay quiet when its competition moves.

i just meant the comment from Reggie Fils-Aime isn't really so interesting because of the reasons i said

POWERSPHERE · Nov 18, 2006

Amir0x said:
So I mean I wish he would have said "it'll be ten years" or something!

Hmmm, a 5 year update will be good for me, that shit will be looking pretty dated by then. It's not as if they're going to drop the control scheme, unless it totally flops.

elostyle · Nov 18, 2006

ziran said:
~1 million for Europe and the rest of the world

Well, thanks nintendo.

Dr. Kitty Muffins · Nov 18, 2006

What is the rate of adoption for HD anyways? I think that will determine how soon the visuals end up looking dated.

ForzaItalia · Nov 18, 2006

Dr. Kitty Muffins said:
What is the rate of adoption for HD anyways? I think that will determine how soon the visuals end up looking dated.

Christmas of 2007 it will take off for good. Guaranteed.

Dragmire · Nov 18, 2006

Personally, I'll be getting an HDTV sometime after my next TV. Which will be a black and white CRT (just to skew the adoption rate).

Mac the KNife · Nov 18, 2006

It's interesting with Nintendo in that if they did update the hardware 4 or 5 years down the line, is there anything stopping them from using the same input method (the Wiimote & nunchuck) again? If they went that route at least consumers wouldn't have to buy all the add on crap again.

JBetts · Nov 18, 2006

You should need a new console as often as you need a new PC.

Jackano · Nov 18, 2006

I think Europe shipments for 2006 will not exceed 500~750k.
The Wii has only 2 weeks before Christmas for doing good, i don't expect Nintendo will ship 1M units for 2 weeks...
2 years ago in Japan, the DS sold 1,5M in 4 weeks. The Wii can reach 1.5M in the same period.

Masklinn · Nov 18, 2006

Jackano said:
The Wii has only 2 weeks before Christmas for doing good, i don't expect Nintendo will ship 1M units for 2 weeks...

2 and a half weeks actually, versus 3 weeks for Japan...

Not that much of a difference.

1M for yurop makes plenty sense, especially since it's an uncharted territory for this gen (Xbox only sells well in the UK), PS3 won't come out until march, DS beats PSP and europe is mad for "non games".

Graphics Horse · Nov 18, 2006

Unless it all goes horribly wrong, I'd think they'll release a fully compatible, high-def Wii in 2 or 3 years.

jon61586 · Nov 18, 2006

I think the question is will there be that much demand for the wii? I really don't think so.

ziran · Nov 20, 2006

Nintendo Canada:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=21218

"We have 4 million units ready to go, which is something our competitors have struggled with... Historically a bit more than half of our worldwide shipment would go to North America, I think thats probably a good estimate."

More than 2 million units will be available in NA by Dec 31st?

Also:

"Canada is more important than its actual market size," Trépanier said.

"Not only is Canada 10 per cent of North America, which is significant, but the Canadian subsidiary of Nintendo is widely regarded as one of the best subsidiaries in the world on a whole bunch of measures including profit per employee and market share."

So, it sounds like Canada will be receiving ~10% of Wii shipments, ~200k by the end of the year.

Vieo · Nov 20, 2006

Probably means I won't be able to get a Wii until next year. No Wii for Thanksgiving and Christmas recess... =*(

edit: faaking nintendo! faaking scalpers!

Striek · Nov 20, 2006

Interesting. I wonder if the Wii will beat the Xbox's first holiday season. It should definitely beat the GC's.

The first linked article and the second are conflicting though. The former indicates that they probably won't meet earlier targets whilst the latter reiterates they will but is written as though its an old interview.

andthebeatgoeson · Nov 20, 2006

Mac the KNife said:
It's interesting with Nintendo in that if they did update the hardware 4 or 5 years down the line, is there anything stopping them from using the same input method (the Wiimote & nunchuck) again? If they went that route at least consumers wouldn't have to buy all the add on crap again.

They make too much money selling controllers. They'll add a better speaker, microphone or something to get people to move over to another set of controllers.

Here's hoping there's a shipment this week that nobody knows about and I can actually get there at 5 am. Wednesday looks to be a great day for camping. ****, I'm getting one.

Kabouter · Nov 20, 2006

JBetts said:
You should need a new console as often as you need a new PC.

So every 4 years?

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