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NPD on the difficulty of launching $60 singleplayer non-GAAS games in today's market

I think that the last part is what skews things as well. For example, yes, SE has been updating FFXV constantly but it doesn't make it a GaaS game, it's still an SP RPG with DLC (upcoming MP component aside). Uncharted 4 is SP Adventure game despite MP mode with MTs galore. Neither is Witcher 3 or Fallout or Skyrim, etc...

Those are all GaaS games.

Some utilize DLC, some utilize MTX. But both are games as service.

If you want to break down benefits and drawbacks of individual service components that's fine. These components have specific definitions already.

GaaS isn't just a synonym for MTX based games.

As to why I earlier mentioned that Sports Games and yearly CoD releases (but not AC for example) need to be taken off when doing statistics here is because audience is "captive" there.

This makes no sense at all. Sports games are among the most successful and profitable GaaS titles.

Go read the article. You're making arguments against points that were never made.

Yes and his analysis directly confirms what I've said because this is another way to interpret it which in my view is way more interesting than saying "you need to make great SP games for them to sell, doh".

Not really, no. Your comment was far too broad and all encompassing to be reasonable. Also a bit hyperbolic.

As I said, many developers would disagree with that interpretation of GaaS.

Sure. But it doesn't change anything in terms of evaluating the points made in the article, or the idea that in order for non-service games to reach the top of the sales charts, the game as well as its marketing and promotion need to basically be perfectly executed. Which is the point that was being made.
 

dr_rus

Member
Not really, no. Your comment was far too broad and all encompassing to be reasonable. Also a bit hyperbolic.

So my comment is far too broad but the inverse of the same comment is the absolutely correct takeaway? You don't notice anything strange here?
 
So my comment is far too broad but the inverse of the same comment is the absolutely correct takeaway? You don't notice anything strange here?

My statement:

Single-player, non-service based games have to be nearly perfect in execution not only with the game itself, but also in the marketing and promotion around the game, to get to the top of the charts.

Your statement:

you can make a crappy GAAS/MP game with bad marketing and messaging and the game will sell millions and set the charts on fire.

At least try to be the tiniest bit authentic if you want to have an honest discussion. If you're not interested in having an honest discussion, why waste your time?
 
I am at the point where I would be cool if

1. They go the Hellblade route and make it a more concise experience for a lower price and lower cost on the developments

or

2. Raise the price with a guarantee there is no fucking loot boxes, no nickel and diming MT, and the game will be supported longer. You say it's 70/75 bucks but a "triple A" massive game without any of the predatory business practices and will give me 50+ hours of content, I am in. I respect that forthright honesty. Just make a game self contained and complete without comprising the experience to milk whales/dolphins/ or whatever degrading term they are using for people with compulsive tendencies.
 

DC1

Member
My friend and I were talking about how much Agents of Mayhem slipped under the radar, and I went "I wonder why they didn't just make Saints Row 5", and then he went, "Oh, Agents of Mayhem basically is a Saints Row game, they're in the same universe."

I was just gobsmacked. My immediate reaction was, why didn't they tell nobody??
I would have totally bought this game of I knew that. Absolutely. With out question.

Better yet, they should have just called it Saints Row: Agents of Mayhem.
 

dr_rus

Member
My statement:

Your statement:

At least try to be the tiniest bit authentic if you want to have an honest discussion. If you're not interested in having an honest discussion, why waste your time?

Your statement is 10-8=2
My statement is 10-2=8

I am authentic and I see no issue with my statement or why it suddenly broader than yours - it's a direct result of what you've wrote about issues of selling modern non-GAAS SP games.

Do note that you yourself specify the category as "Single-player, non-service based games" which means that the opposite of this category (which is obviously "multiplayer, service based games") don't need anything of what you've deemed as necessary for good SP games sales - meaning "perfect [...] execution [and] marketing and promotion".

Hence what I've said, and I do insist that it's actually a way bigger revelation here than "SP games need to be good to sell well".
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Hitman Absolution?

Yes, around the end of last generation, we had a few questionable rated singleplayer hits that made developers feel more comfortable making more singleplayer games going into this generation.

However, that quickly collapsed after the first year or so of this generation, so almost every major AAA vendor has been shifting heavily toward games as a service, and especially multiplayer oriented games as a service titles.

We won't see the full results of that immediately though, as they had a lot of legacy titles in development for 2-3+ years. However, It should start becoming really apparent with the 2018's and 2019's game announcements.

Ubisoft went in on a full transition a bit earlier than other singleplayer heavy companies, and we saw that all their new AAA products (Beyond Good & Evil 2, Skull & Bones, The Crew 2, Far Cry 5) were service games and/or very online heavy games with the exception of Assassin's Creed, which apparently started development back before Unity released. It's also worth noting that Ubisoft has unusually cautious sales projections for Assassin's Creed due to this (below Unity, above Syndicate, which would make it among the worst selling games in the series).
 
Just question of curiosity to you knowledgeable mods: How do you feel about this particular industry trend? You have given very nicely detailed observations about the use of this model, so how do you personally feel about it?

It's been years since I had anything less than a surfeit of single-player titles to suit my various preferences and today's popular MP titles are a lot cheaper to get into than their equivalents from a decade ago, so I'm not complaining. I think in discussions like this there's a lot more weird hypothetical

Somehow I doubt this will be the case for much longer, considering how effortlessly Nintendo made the switch to attaching overpriced DLC to their games.

"Overpriced" is an interesting word here.

Yes and his analysis directly confirms what I've said because this is another way to interpret it

The thing you are saying does not in fact follow logically from the statement you are "interpreting."
 

Humdinger

Member
I think that the last part is what skews things as well. For example, yes, SE has been updating FFXV constantly but it doesn't make it a GaaS game, it's still an SP RPG with DLC (upcoming MP component aside). Uncharted 4 is SP Adventure game despite MP mode with MTs galore. Neither is Witcher 3 or Fallout or Skyrim, etc...

I do consider Uncharted GaaS, because of its MP and long stream of additional content. I don't consider Witcher or Skyrim good examples of GaaS, but I know they fall under the umbrella of the broadest definition of GaaS (anything with an update/DLC). Imo, they are borderline cases, not prototypical examples.

To me, this is GaaS:

When asked about what treating a game as a service meant, Ubisoft's vice president of live operations, Anne Blondel-Jouin, said: ”Games as a service, or live games, refer to games that offer an evolving long-term, entertaining experience for our players. They often have a focus on online competitive multiplayer experiences such as Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege but they can also include other types of game experiences like The Crew [an online-only racing game]. ‘Live' refers to all the activities and interactions created for the game community including pre- and post-launch as well as regular updates, new content, and events both in-game and out-of-game, etc. throughout the game's lifespan."

http://www.alistdaily.com/strategy/means-games-service/

That's GaaS. I don't agree with people who lump games like that together with games that get one DLC package six months down the road. That's apples and oranges.

But I don't have control over how other people use the word. People will continue to use it in different ways.
 

Okay let's start with your quoted definition, because I'm going to break down why this definition you posted is the exact same definition I use. So, let's go:

When asked about what treating a game as a service meant, Ubisoft’s vice president of live operations, Anne Blondel-Jouin, said: “Games as a service, or live games, refer to games that offer an evolving long-term, entertaining experience for our players. They often have a focus on online competitive multiplayer experiences such as Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege but they can also include other types of game experiences like The Crew [an online-only racing game]. ‘Live’ refers to all the activities and interactions created for the game community including pre- and post-launch as well as regular updates, new content, and events both in-game and out-of-game, etc. throughout the game’s lifespan.”

http://www.alistdaily.com/strategy/means-games-service/

Okay. Let's start here. Let's cut it down to just the quote.

Games as a service, or live games, refer to games that offer an evolving long-term, entertaining experience for our players. They often have a focus on online competitive multiplayer experiences such as Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege but they can also include other types of game experiences like The Crew [an online-only racing game]. ‘Live’ refers to all the activities and interactions created for the game community including pre- and post-launch as well as regular updates, new content, and events both in-game and out-of-game, etc. throughout the game’s lifespan.

Great.

So, let's break it down.

Games as a service, or live games, refer to games that offer an evolving long-term, entertaining experience for our players.

No problem. Makes sense. Next line.

They often have a focus on online competitive multiplayer experiences such as Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege but they can also include other types of game experiences like The Crew [an online-only racing game].

Alright. Note the use of the word "often". They "often" have a focus on online multiplayer experiences. "Often" does not mean "always" or "exclusively".

‘Live’ refers to all the activities and interactions created for the game community including pre- and post-launch as well as regular updates, new content, and events both in-game and out-of-game, etc. throughout the game’s lifespan.

And there are all the components that a live, or service, game can feature.

Did The Witcher 3 offer updates and new content? Yes. It did not feature events, but that doesn't mean it must be excluded from the definition. In fact, it fits well within the definition.

Does Uncharted 4 offer updates and new content? Absolutely. Also has events.

Final Fantasty XV? Fits the criteria certainly.

The Division, Destiny, etc.... of course.

These are all Service, or Live based games.

So.... this definition?

Games as a service, or live games, refer to games that offer an evolving long-term, entertaining experience for our players. They often have a focus on online competitive multiplayer experiences such as Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege but they can also include other types of game experiences like The Crew [an online-only racing game]. ‘Live’ refers to all the activities and interactions created for the game community including pre- and post-launch as well as regular updates, new content, and events both in-game and out-of-game, etc. throughout the game’s lifespan.

This is the basically the exact same definition I'm using, and have used in the quote in the article.

Look, I hate being that guy but seriously...

I spent the last 15 years in games publishing. I've built hundreds of forecast models around live plans. We were using the term "service game" 8 years ago. I work with publishers regularly, and have worked with some of the world's best devs throughout my career. I know what it means when one talks about service games.

The definition you quote is the exact same definition I've referred to throughout the thread.

Should the industry perhaps start assigning some sub-segments? Sure. But these definitions always trail the things being defined. And considering the pace of change in this space, it shouldn't surprise anyone that the definitions and breakdowns lag what's being seen in the market by a few months.
 
Double. Forgive me.

So my comment is far too broad but the inverse of the same comment is the absolutely correct takeaway? You don't notice anything strange here?

Alright, fine, let's break this down too.

There is a point buried under the unnecessary tone of your post. So let's discuss the point.

you can make a crappy GAAS/MP game with bad marketing and messaging and the game will sell millions and set the charts on fire.

Let's start with the first point:

you can make a crappy GAAS/MP game

How does one define "crappy"? Let's utilize the one quantitative barometer of quality, even though it is certainly flawed and somewhat unreliable: metacritic or gameranking.

The inherent problem with this is that a game is most often reviewed at launch. So, let's say game GaaS X releases in November, and at launch there's not a lot of content, the servers are unreliable, and it's a bit of a mess. The game gets a 70.

Is this a crap game? Maybe. Does this mean that the service game will sell well for years?

Of course not. A poor review score doesn't cause higher sales. Not for a service game or a non-service game.

The difference, of course, is that a service game evolves over time.

Look at Rainbow Six: Siege. It's rated at a mid 7. And how did it sell at launch? Well, it certainly didn't set the chart on fire.

But then what happened? The game received constant improvements and added features and the user base began to grow. Sales improved. Now, it's a constant on the top-selling charts.

Is the R6:Siege of September 2017 the same game as the one launched in December of 2015? Would it still be rated a mid-7? The answer to both questions is "no".

So the "crappy" game isn't guaranteed to sell well. But a Service Game can improve and expand from launch, become a better game over time, and continue to track an audience.

To this point, then, no, you cannot just make a "crappy" game and "set the charts on fire".

bad marketing and messaging

I'd disagree with you again.

A game with bad marketing and messaging struggles, no matter what kind of game it is.

However, service based games that succeed can do so despite initial mis-steps. And a service based game is far more likely to be supported with marketing, promotion and community support far longer than a non-service based game which cannot be improved upon over time.

The games on the top-sellers list every month? Those games have excellent marketing and promotional support far after launch. Unless you'd like to point out which games do not?

However, there are also many service games that are nowhere near the top-sellers lists. And those games do not have decent marketing and promotional support.

set the charts on fire.

Unfortunately, your point cannot logically be taken from the quote I made regarding how important it is for non service based games to have almost perfect product quality, marketing and promotion for launch.

A service based game, as opposed to a non service based game, can recover from a rough launch. It can improve game quality (although perhaps not the metacritic score), and have consistent marketing and promotional support for new content and features being released, while supporting the community.

The service based games at the top of the charts every month? They get this. They do these things. The service based games with "crap games, terrible marketing, etc" aren't at the top of the best-sellers list, ever.

Your post has elements of truth buried deep underneath the unpleasant qualities of the post itself. Unfortunately, if your takeaway from my quote truly is what you've posted, you're far off base.
 
Your statement is 10-8=2
My statement is 10-2=8

I am authentic and I see no issue with my statement or why it suddenly broader than yours - it's a direct result of what you've wrote about issues of selling modern non-GAAS SP games.

Do note that you yourself specify the category as "Single-player, non-service based games" which means that the opposite of this category (which is obviously "multiplayer, service based games") don't need anything of what you've deemed as necessary for good SP games sales - meaning "perfect [...] execution [and] marketing and promotion".

Hence what I've said, and I do insist that it's actually a way bigger revelation here than "SP games need to be good to sell well".

Take a step back dr_rus and scrutinize yourself here.

The opposite of Matt's statement:

Single-player, non-service based games have to be nearly perfect in execution not only with the game itself, but also in the marketing and promotion around the game, to get to the top of the charts.

Isn't your statement:

you can make a crappy GAAS/MP game with bad marketing and messaging and the game will sell millions and set the charts on fire.

But:

Publishers don't have to make a game that is a critical darling and launches with a colossal marketing campaign, for it to be a commercial success, if the game is multi-player and GaaS.

Which whilst similar to your statement, is much less broad and exaggerated.

On the other hand, I do agree with your sentiment that the counter-conclusion is more revelatory than Matt's original statement; especially when we consider the "top of the charts" to encompass the likes of games like COD, BF and GTA, which routinely sell in excess of 10-20+m units globally... For THAT level of success it's obvious that a single player non-service game needs to be executed perfectly.
 

Humdinger

Member
Okay let's start with your quoted definition, because I'm going to break down why this definition you posted is the exact same definition I use. So, let's go:
[....]

And there are all the components that a live, or service, game can feature.

Did The Witcher 3 offer updates and new content? Yes. It did not feature events, but that doesn't mean it must be excluded from the definition. In fact, it fits well within the definition.

Does Uncharted 4 offer updates and new content? Absolutely. Also has events.
[...]

I agree Uncharted can be considered a GaaS game. I'm not sure about The Witcher. That seems like a stretch.

What bothers me is the idea that having just one of these elements means it is a GaaS game. What game doesn't have an update or two, or some little bit of DLC? If those are GaaS games, then every game is a GaaS game, and so the term loses all specificity. You don't even know what someone is talking about when they say "GaaS," since it can apply to nearly anything.

I like how we talk about RPGs. We say, "This game is an RPG" and "this game has RPG elements." Just because a game has RPG elements doesn't make it an RPG. So I would suggest we say, "This is a GaaS game" and "this game has GaaS elements." Just because a game has GaaS elements doesn't necessarily make it a GaaS game.

At least, that would make more sense to my ears.

Look, I hate being that guy but seriously...

I spent the last 15 years in games publishing. I've built hundreds of forecast models around live plans. We were using the term "service game" 8 years ago. I work with publishers regularly, and have worked with some of the world's best devs throughout my career. I know what it means when one talks about service games.

Uh oh, pulling rank on me, lol. All right, look, I acknowledge your expertise in the industry. I'm not trying to be disrespectful. I'm just expressing my opinion.

Maybe that sort of definition makes sense inside the industry. I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to me. Maybe this is a case where industry insiders use the term one way, and gamers or journalists use it another way -- just like how some professionals will use a term in ways different than lay people use it (I can think of examples in my own field).

Should the industry perhaps start assigning some sub-segments? Sure. But these definitions always trail the things being defined. And considering the pace of change in this space, it shouldn't surprise anyone that the definitions and breakdowns lag what's being seen in the market by a few months.

Ok, thanks for the response, Mat. Just to clarify, I don't care how the industry labels things; that's none of my business. You guys do your thing. I'm just talking about how we talk about these things on message boards, etc.

I hope you didn't take offense at my critique. I appreciate your presence and perspective.
 

Humdinger

Member
Mat, one more thing. Early in the thread (in a reply to arts&crafts), you cited Zelda, The Witcher, Skyrim, and Fallout as examples of successful SP non-service games.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=250297799&postcount=37

And yet, all of these games have had updates and DLC, all would qualify as GaaS games, under your definition.

That sounds like a contradiction to me.

In fact, just above, on this same page, you state that Witcher, Fallout, and Skyrim are all GaaS games. Yet earlier, you used them as examples of successful non-GaaS games.

That's a contradiction. A thing can't be both GaaS and not GaaS at the same time. Aristotle would be upset.
 

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
In my opinion the answer to this "problem" is to expand that third tier of singleplayer experiences between the AAA blockbusters and the indie gems. You see this to some degree on PC, but there's always room for more of the $30 to $40 dollar games that flesh out their ideas and game mechanics more than smaller indie titles tend to, without going all out on megabudget graphics and checkbox feature lists.
 

Norse

Member
Just make games like halo where there's a good sp experience and multiplayer stuff as well. Best of both worlds.
 

MoonFrog

Member
I guess what confuses me with the broad definition of GaaS here is that it presents an obvious hook in the case of a multiplayer game with frequent updates and microtransactions to cash in on an active player base. On the other hand, I tend to see largely single player games that have DLC as eking out more money on that same initial playerbase and possibly getting ready for a 'value' re-release to get some more outside interest.

The latter seem like they should sell basically the same at launch/immediately after the launch as non-GaaS single player games to me.

I don't know shit, but that's just how it'd seem it'd go to me.

Should this take-away be extended to such games, i.e. all single-player games?

At which, point it'd seem perhaps the distinction isn't tracking GaaS at all.

It'd be tracking "it is hard to go up against large, well-supported multiplayer games as a single-player game at the same price point at launch and at distance from launch."
 

wapplew

Member
Did The Witcher 3 offer updates and new content? Yes. It did not feature events, but that doesn't mean it must be excluded from the definition. In fact, it fits well within the definition.

That's mean Agent of Mayhem fits within the definition too. It have post launch updates and new content DLC.
Yet it been used as an example of single player AAA none service game in the op.
 
I want to just say: the market is full of idiots and it continues to grow and ruin my hobby.

This also makes it hard to blame companies for making games for the idiotic market though.

I hate all of it.
 

Humdinger

Member
That's mean Agent of Mayhem fits within the definition too. It have post launch updates and new content DLC.

Yet it been used as an example of single player AAA none service game in the op.

Yes, thanks for pointing that out. That's another example of the contradiction I mentioned above. Can't have it both ways.

The point of the thread is that the game failed because it's a non-GaaS game that didn't do everything right. Yet, by the broad definition being used (anything with a DLC or updates), the game is GaaS.

So what's the point again? This is what I meant when I said, when terms are defined too broadly, they lose meaning, they lose communicative value. Even Mat is talking in contradictions.

No disrespect to Mat. It's not Mat's fault. It's the definition's fault. If GaaS includes any post-content updates, even a single DLC, then the word has lost all meaning -- or at least, it has detached itself from how most people here use the term.

I suggested a partial solution. We could split it into two categories: GaaS games and games with GaaS elements. That may be one way to go. It is similar to how we talk about RPGs -- there are RPGs, and then there are games with RPG elements.

So games like Overwatch, CoD, The Division, GTA V, etc. -- those are GaaS games.

Games like Witcher, Horizon, or Skyrim -- those are games with GaaS elements. Not GaaS games, but they do have GaaS elements.

Ok, that's my contribution to clarifying the term. I've spent too much time on this, so I'll leave it at that.
 

I agree with you.

A bit earlier in the thread Nirolak also threw out some potential subsegment definitions for service games. It's something that is needed.

You're right, a game like AoM isn't the same as a game like Destiny, yet both are technically service-based games given available definitions. That isn't good enough for effective thinking and conversation around the model.

It seems I misinterpreted your initial post a bit, apologies for that. Thanks for explaining your thoughts in more detail, it's quite helpful.
 

RedSwirl

Junior Member
Most singleplayer-only games at this point probably just need to realize they aren't AAA.

All those PS4 games that came out this year: Yakuza, Nier, Nioh, Persona, etc., did all right because they knew their audiences and focused on them, while managing to at least slightly increase their reach with some good word-of-mouth. The Japanese games that are coming back to PlayStation don't individually have the same impact as a Destiny 2 or a GTA, but they seemed to reach some point of sustainability by satisfying their core base and not needing bleeding edge production values. The middle-budget game is seeing a resurgence of sorts.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Most singleplayer-only games at this point probably just need to realize they aren't AAA.

All those PS4 games that came out this year: Yakuza, Nier, Nioh, Persona, etc., did all right because they knew their audiences and focused on them, while managing to at least slightly increase their reach with some good word-of-mouth. The Japanese games that are coming back to PlayStation don't individually have the same impact as a Destiny 2 or a GTA, but they seemed to reach some point of sustainability by satisfying their core base and not needing bleeding edge production values. The middle-budget game is seeing a resurgence of sorts.

I want to believe or, rather, I hope this is a lasting trend.

The thing is, a lot of Japanese software is already well aware it isn't AAA.

I wonder if this is as much a thing among western-developed games. I don't think it is, coming from major western publishers, but then again, I'm much more clued in to Japanese mid-size budget games.

The west just seems much more successful big-publisher AAA production and independent, small budget production oriented, whereas few Japanese publishers have found their success in AAA, having instead depended on handheld titles and smaller successes with smaller budgets on home consoles since HD development became a thing.
 
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