Support NeoGAF

jvm · Nov 20, 2007

Last month some folks suggested making a separate thread for this, and donnie2112 concurred, so here goes.

I wrote up some comments about October's NPD figures for Next-Generation as I've done previously. They just went up, and you can read the full story here.

I'll try to pick out some bits that might interest you guys.

Let's consider the September-October hardware sales for the platforms and years indicated below:

Previous September-October Figures
Sony PlayStation 2: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006
Nintendo GameCube: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006
Microsoft Xbox: 2002, 2003, 2004
Microsoft Xbox 360: 2006

(The original Xbox in 2005 was essentially an abandoned system, given the imminent release of its successor, so that data hasn't been considered here.)

Only 3 of those 15 historical measurements showed more than a 30% increase in any platform's sales from September to October. The other 12 measurements showed that hardware sales were either essentially flat or actually decreased.

This year every system showed an effective 25-30% increase in sales from September to October. PlayStation 3 sales rose 26.7% and Wii sales rose 29.5%. Moreover, if we compare Xbox 360 sales from August to the numbers in October, skipping the exceptional Halo 3 launch, we see a similar increase of 32.3%. (Although it is not the same class of hardware, sales of the PSP increased 25.7% from September to October.) This is clearly a healthy market.

I thought these graphs were amusing, and included them:

About those graphs:

Last year was a mixed market with no single dominant manufacturer. In 2007, the top platforms are clearly Nintendo's, with everyone else significantly behind.

Along with its hardware figures and the top ten software titles for October, NPD also released a list of the top selling software properties to date in all of 2007. Here is that list:

Top Selling Properties in 2007:
Halo 3: 3.7 million
Madden NFL 08: 3.2 million
Guitar Hero II: 2.8 million
Wii Play: 2.5 million
Pokemon Diamond: 2.1 million
Pokemon Pearl: 1.5 million
Spider-Man 3: 1.4 million
Guitar Hero III: 1.4 million

The remarkable thing about this list is that it includes only one new property: Wii Play. Everything else is part of an existing game franchise, and in the case of Spider-Man 3, a property tied to a movie. At least half of these titles sold over a million copies in a single month.

By comparison, some of the most notable original titles this year have sold well under a million copies. BioShock on the Xbox 360 may end up the best-selling new property of 2007. Yet, in its third month it has sold no more than 800,000 copies. It will certainly break a million by the end of the year, but it is the exception rather than the rule for original games.

One week of Guitar Hero III sales is approximately half of all Guitar Hero II sales for all of 2007. Don't forget that Guitar Hero II sold over a million copies on the PlayStation 2 at the end of 2006. If we consider those sales, then Guitar Hero III is almost 1/3 of the way to Guitar Hero II's launch-to-date sales.

The PSP situation is truly unusual. By historical standards, the system is selling well. Nintendo has never had such strong competition in the handheld market, and October was especially robust for the PSP. For most of 2007, Sony has sold fewer than 5 PSPs for every 10 Nintendo DS handhelds. In October, that ratio surged above 6 PSPs to every 10 Nintendo DS handhelds for the first time since January 2007 when Nintendo DS supply was severely constrained from the Holiday 2006 rush. Still, the PSP has no defining software hits and only two major titles Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories and Madden NFL 08 have ranked in the top 20 this year. No PSP games have made the top 10 list for over a year. Given the struggling UMD movie market, one wonders just what all those people are doing once they buy the system.

And on and on. There are a lot of graphs and I go into some specifics for each of Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony. I then stick my neck out a bit for what we might see in November. I might regret that bit, I suppose.

I'm not Pachter, and I'm not claiming to be, so keep that in mind. I believe Next-Gen wants an analysis article about NPD figures because most people don't actually read GAF to get the low-down. That's probably worth keeping in mind when you're thinking to yourself "we knew this on Thursday last week!" while reading some parts of it.

I also do not read anything in the official NPD threads here until after this article is posted (except to get the numbers out of sonycowboy's first post). So I'm sure there's overlap between what I wrote and what's in the official thread somewhere.

Finally, I do make mistakes. Someone found one last month and I had the article updated to fix the error. If you find something, let me know and I'll double check it and then fix it as needed.

Anyway, there you go. Flame on.

Grecco · Nov 20, 2007

No PSP games have made the top 10 list for over a year. Given the struggling UMD movie market, one wonders just what all those people are doing once they buy the system.

Arrrrrrrrrrr.

Good writeup though.

nextgeneration · Nov 20, 2007

Thanks for the write up.

This year every system showed an effective 25-30% increase in sales from September to October.

This is true except for 360. September was a 5 week month and October was a 4 week month. 360 sales were actually down 13.32% month over month.

Oblivion · Nov 20, 2007

The PSP situation is truly unusual. By historical standards, the system is selling well. Nintendo has never had such strong competition in the handheld market, and October was especially robust for the PSP. For most of 2007, Sony has sold fewer than 5 PSPs for every 10 Nintendo DS handhelds. In October, that ratio surged above 6 PSPs to every 10 Nintendo DS handhelds for the first time since January 2007 when Nintendo DS supply was severely constrained from the Holiday 2006 rush. Still, the PSP has no defining software hits and only two major titles Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories and Madden NFL 08 have ranked in the top 20 this year. No PSP games have made the top 10 list for over a year. Given the struggling UMD movie market, one wonders just what all those people are doing once they buy the system.

Yeah, I (and most people) was wondering about this as well. It really is an anomaly.

jvm · Nov 20, 2007

nextgeneration said:
This is true except for 360. September was a 5 week month and October was a 4 week month. 360 sales were actually down 13.32% month over month.

Yes, I'm aware of all that. In the article I make the case that we should compare August to October, skipping the Halo 3 launch month. There is the 30% increase, roughly.

In short, I opted to throw out the data point blatantly influenced by a game launch and use the ones around it for comparison.

Pachael · Nov 20, 2007

I'd say the PSP's been getting better traction partially due to the new model which has attracted much attraction and sales, the decision to price it at about the same price as the PSP Phat was also great.

This and the packaged deals that Sony haven't really done before have helped the PSP, such as Crisis Core for Japan, Daxter for US, Simpsons Game for Australia.

nextgeneration · Nov 20, 2007

jvm said:
Yes, I'm aware of all that. In the article I make the case that we should compare August to October, skipping the Halo 3 launch month. There is the 30% increase, roughly.

In short, I opted to throw out the data point blatantly influenced by a game launch and use the ones around it for comparison.

Ok, thanks for the clarification.

Sho_Nuff82 · Nov 20, 2007

I can't believe Spiderman 3 sold that well. Enter the Matrix has some company, christ.

GhaleonEB · Nov 20, 2007

I look forward to these articles every month. You do the best and most comprehensive analysis on the web, IMO.

I'll add a few comments as I read through.

The Xbox 360 hasn't substantially improved its standing in the past year, having sold 10% more systems in 2007 than it sold in 2006. It has moved just ahead of the PlayStation 2 in annual system sales.

It's worth noting the trend from the past three months on this point. From January through July of this year, the 360 was trailing behind last year by 200,000 units. Through October, it is ahead by 300,000 units, a swing of 500k in three months. If that trend holds, it will do quite a bit better than last year.

Top Selling Properties in 2007:

Halo 3: 3.7 million
Madden NFL 08: 3.2 million
Guitar Hero II: 2.8 million
Wii Play: 2.5 million
Pokemon Diamond: 2.1 million
Pokemon Pearl: 1.5 million
Spider-Man 3: 1.4 million
Guitar Hero III: 1.4 million

:eek. I didn't realize just how sequel-stacked the best sellers list was. It also puts Halo 3's sales in perspective, outselling all versions of Madden combined.

Last month we saw that 49% of Xbox 360 owners had purchased Halo 3. During October Microsoft sold more copies of Halo 3 than Xbox 360 systems, which means that the attach rate increased. The game's attach rate is now 0.55 or about 5 out of every 9 system owners.

I hadn't realized the attache rate grew.

Wii hardware sales, however, continue to be a serious concern. Unless Nintendo has increased production significantly, many expectant consumers will be disappointed for the rest of 2007. As noted in this column last month, historical trends and current Wii demand indicate that Nintendo could easily sell over 2.5 million systems during last two months of the year. That's a weekly rate of around 300,000 systems per week. Except for the Wii launch, Nintendo has never provided even half of that weekly rate to the U.S. market.

I understand what you are saying here, looking ahead to the holidays. However, October showed that Nintendo was increasing their supply, and there's nothing to say they won't continue to do so. My data shows it just had the second best October ever for a console (at least, since 2000), just behind the PS2 in October 2002. The rate of sales this year have shown that consumers are willing to wait until they can find one to buy. So even if they under-supply during the holidays, if they keep up supply at the current rate, they'll make it up in just a few months.

Great summary for the November Outlook. I do think selling ~1m in November would be a serious accomplishment for the Wii, even if they leave some consumers without (hey, there's worse problems to have).

Markster · Nov 20, 2007

Regarding their comment on the PSP:

one wonders just what all those people are doing once they buy the system.

I've actually had several of my friends, who used to be DS-only, recently buy PSPs.

The reason is not that there is any defining killer app, but rather, that the entire library has been slowly filling out with interesting, unique, and otherwise-not-on-a-handheld games.

It's sort of the Long Tail idea.

jvm · Nov 20, 2007

GhaleonEB said:
I look forward to these articles every month. You do the best and most comprehensive analysis on the web, IMO.

That's the nicest thing someone's said to me in a while. Thanks.

It's worth noting the trend from the past three months on this point. From January through July of this year, the 360 was trailing behind last year by 200,000 units. Through October, it is ahead by 300,000 units, a swing of 500k in three months. If that trend holds, it will do quite a bit better than last year.

That's a good point. The price drop really did change the game for Microsoft, and I wish they'd done it earlier, for their own sake. They bragged a bit about holding out on a price drop longer than any previous console and I wondered what they were thinking. Seeing how sales jumped, I wonder if they still think that was such a great accomplishment...

I hadn't realized the attache rate grew.

Yep. I wondered where it would go in last month's article, and I predicted that they would go over 5M copies by the end of 2007. Now I wonder how much I underestimated...

The rate of sales this year have shown that consumers are willing to wait until they can find one to buy. So even if they under-supply during the holidays, if they keep up supply at the current rate, they'll make it up in just a few months.

Good observation. We all know that consumer demand is high, but you've put your finger on an important quality of that demand -- consumers are waiting, and very patiently.

Thanks for all the comments.

davepoobond · Nov 20, 2007

PSP sales are unusual, i think we really have to look at total software sold for the platform month by month rather than singular titles to see how well that market is doing. of course a healthy market shows signs of particular games being risen above all the others amongst its competitors, but as it is in a very "new" spot of being an actual competitor to a Nintendo handheld that hasn't been wiped off the face of the Earth after 3+ years and is still selling well, i think that is important, since like the article said, what are they buying?

its probably just a case of more spread out sales and many different people who have a PSP.

RumFore · Nov 20, 2007

I think Sony should have marketed the PSP differently. I mainly use it for music, movies and I even surf the web on it. They should marketed it more like MP3 player with gaming functionality. Most times I find myself listening to music or a podcast on it while I play the DS.

GhaleonEB · Nov 20, 2007

jvm said:
They bragged a bit about holding out on a price drop longer than any previous console and I wondered what they were thinking. Seeing how sales jumped, I wonder if they still think that was such a great accomplishment...

Yeah. Looking at their sales this year through July, it's nothing to brag about. I think Microsoft squandered a lot of their lead time this year by waiting so long to cut the price. It's a very strange boast indeed.

duk · Nov 20, 2007

Interesting thread, lots of good info here.

Hammer24 · Nov 20, 2007

Interesting, thanks for sharing.

Yagharek · Nov 20, 2007

"This is a healthy market."

That's the important bit. Amazing to see 6 strong platforms all at once (Wii, DS, PS2, PS3, PSP, 360). Unlike last gen where there was really only PS2 + GBA + Occasional XBox spikes.

It's in gamers' interests (although not our bank account's

) for this gen to keep going like this.

spineduke · Nov 20, 2007

RumFore said:
I think Sony should have marketed the PSP differently. I mainly use it for music, movies and I even surf the web on it. They should marketed it more like MP3 player with gaming functionality. Most times I find myself listening to music or a podcast on it while I play the DS.

Yes, that would have done wonders for publisher confidence :rollseyes:

That was the problem in the first place. Not enough advertising about the fact that it's a game machine, first and all.

affableamerican · Nov 20, 2007

Great post jvm, thanks. For good selling original IP this year, I'd also submit Crackdown. How many has that sold so far? (Edit: *sigh* I should read your article before commenting...)

GhaleonEB said:
Yeah. Looking at their sales this year through July, it's nothing to brag about. I think Microsoft squandered a lot of their lead time this year by waiting so long to cut the price. It's a very strange boast indeed.

A big factor in the HW sales boost you mention is due to H3 though. The two variables (price drop and arrival of H3) are conflated. ...intentionally?

Kildace · Nov 20, 2007

GhaleonEB said:
Yeah. Looking at their sales this year through July, it's nothing to brag about. I think Microsoft squandered a lot of their lead time this year by waiting so long to cut the price. It's a very strange boast indeed.

I guess that they wanted more leeway to be able to cut the price if and when the PS3 started selling gangbusters.
You have to remember that a year ago, most people thought that the PS3 would be a huge hit and that people would fight to get one. Microsoft had to make sure that if this came to pass, they could cut prices agressively and stay in the race.

I still think that it was a good strategy. Cutting the price and bundling, along with Halo3, will make the 360 the second best selling console worldwide by a pretty wide margin and they can start off 2008 by cutting the Premium + Halo 3 to $300 and the Arcade at a Wii level of pricing to stay competitive with the PS3's crazy software lineup.

Microsoft might have squadered their lead from a price point of view, but they still have profited immensely from the software point of view.

heidern · Nov 20, 2007

jvm said:
This year every system showed an effective 25-30% increase in sales from September to October. PlayStation 3 sales rose 26.7% and Wii sales rose 29.5%. Moreover, if we compare Xbox 360 sales from August to the numbers in October, skipping the exceptional Halo 3 launch, we see a similar increase of 32.3%.

Maybe if you also compared other systems August and October numbers that would give a clearer/better example?

jvm said:
Last year was a mixed market with no single dominant manufacturer. In 2007, the top platforms are clearly Nintendo's, with everyone else significantly behind.

Well, looking at the portable market, combind GBA and NDS numbers actually did make Nintendo the dominant manufacturer for handhelds last year.

Haunted · Nov 20, 2007

Honestly? When we heard that NPD wouldn't provide numbers anymore one of my first thoughts was 'damn, so no more next-gen.biz writeups?'

Good show once again and some very interesting tidbits in there.

Thunder Monkey · Nov 20, 2007

RandomVince said:
That's the important bit. Amazing to see 6 strong platforms all at once (Wii, DS, PS2, PS3, PSP, 360). Unlike last gen where there was really only PS2 + GBA + Occasional XBox spikes.

It's in gamers' interests (although not our bank account's ) for this gen to keep going like this.

The American market looks a lot healthier then it did last round, but I think you're overstating it. The PS3 isn't what I'd call healthy. The rest a case can be made for, but the PS3... no.

The PS3 is one bad holiday (this holiday?) away from being the redheaded stepchild of the American market. Bought enthusiastically by the hardcore, but by few else. Four strong platforms, and one on the out (PS2) is terrific for the market though.

The Wii seems to be the breakaway hit, but the market for everything else will be far from hurting. Consoles well into 2009 will have their jumps. I personally think the Wii and 360 will equal out around the same area. The PS3 will be at the back for a looong time. After this holiday both the 360 and Wii should be nearing the 10 million unit mark. Probably in the areas of 8-9 million. Sony if their lucky will be hitting the 4-5 million mark.

Unless the price drop has a noticeable and sudden effect they're going to start next year at half the userbase of their competitors. Not good for a time that's crucial in garnering future support.

herod · Nov 20, 2007

Markster said:
Regarding their comment on the PSP:

I've actually had several of my friends, who used to be DS-only, recently buy PSPs.

The reason is not that there is any defining killer app, but rather, that the entire library has been slowly filling out with interesting, unique, and otherwise-not-on-a-handheld games.

It's sort of the Long Tail idea.

Same here, two of my buddies just bought one too. Games are going for as little as £10 online, so they're just buying whatever they fancy, and ignoring the expensive titles.

I expect once stuff like God of War, Crisis Core and GT (lol) hit we'll see big spikes in PSP software.

affableamerican · Nov 20, 2007

jvm said:
According to NPD, Sony sold 121,000 PlayStation 3 systems between 7 October 2007 and 3 November 2007. Sony claims that it was selling between 30,000 and 40,000 PlayStation 3 systems per week prior to the 18 October 2007 price cut and 75,000 systems per week during the last week of the October reporting period. If that last week accounts for 75,000 systems, then Sony sold only 46,000 systems throughout the previous three weeks. Reconciling NPD's data with Sony's claims presents a bit of a puzzle.

Bloomberg.com said:
The price cut and new model helped Sony increase sales of all consoles including the older PlayStation 2 to 100,000 units in the week ended Nov. 11, spokeswoman Kimberly Otzman said in an e-mail.

The explanation from the main NPD thread was that Sony's high sales claim was PS2/PS3 combined. Does this mean Sony broke that number down further -- 25K for PS2 and 75K for PS3? Regardless of the wonky numbers, PS3 numbers should benefit hugely from the price drop.

Gadfly · Nov 20, 2007

Thanks for sharing. regarding:

November outlook
...
Look for Microsoft hardware sales to top 1 million systems

I don't think that's realistic. 500K is more like it.

On the other hand I think Sony will do better than 500K.

JJConrad · Nov 20, 2007

I am normally very appreciative of these articles (please keep that in mind), but this month's seem to stretch things a bit too far.

First, comparing September to October's sales for everything except the 360 is just wrong. It dilutes the point and makes it look like you are reaching. It's no shame to the 360 to be down from September. Halo 3 was huge. Much of the article was about the growth of the industry, each platform, and projections for the rest of the year... By skipping over September, you're downplaying a big reason why 360 sales were so high in October. You can't expect the 360 to maintain its August vs. October growth for the rest of the year, because it is still trending down from the effect of Halo 3 in September... the stat is basically useless.

Second, the Bioshock number is misleading. 800k is for the 360 and PC combined. The 360 version alone is at about 675k. You probably shouldn't call it " the best-selling new property of 2007," with Wii Play there (it is also a 2007 title in the US).

....As I'm typing this I'm forgetting what I wanted to say....

Third, you used the combined SKU numbers for Halo 3, but it wouldn't be the #1 title if you also used the combined SKU numbers of the PS2 and 360 versions of GH3 (bundle and stand-alone). I know that's how NPD reported the numbers but it still a little confusing/misleading.

Fourth, something else... it escapes me. Something about the PS3

Fifth, why pick on AC6? Its sales were pretty good for what it is. I know ,long ago, that the series did better ... but that was "long ago." Pick on PGR4 instead.

Sixth, you're forecasts are alright. I'm not sure why you keep harping on the Wii and its supply ... they won't meet demand but there's little doubt they won't have millions of Wiis out there. From their quarterly report, they should have 5 - 7.5 million units available worldwide for the holidays.

Six and a halfth, I think your 360 estimate is a bit high. MS has never come close to a million in November before... but this is the best chance of doing that. I don't think Halo 3 will make the Top 10 simply due to so many major titles being released in November.... Mario, COD4, Assasin's Creed, Mario Vs. Sonic, Mass Effect, Rock Band plus GH3's second week and on.

Psychotext · Nov 20, 2007

Gadfly said:
I don't think that's realistic. 500K is more like it.

I don't think they'll see a million, but given they did 511k last November they need to do a chunk more this year with the price cut and new arcade system.

Chrange · Nov 20, 2007

It's a pity there's no graphs of software sales numbers and comparisons to last year. I'd like to see what they glean from that information and how important that is to developers/publishers.

Slavik81 · Nov 20, 2007

Gadfly said:
I don't think that's realistic. 500K is more like it.
On the other hand I think Sony will do better than 500K.

I think you're in for a rude awakening.

Shpeshal Nick · Nov 20, 2007

it's scary to think what Halo 3 could be on worldwide by the end on 2007.

Any guesses anyone? 7 million? 8?

Amazing considering the current userbase

PROOP · Nov 20, 2007

Shpeshal Ed said:
it's scary to think what Halo 3 could be on worldwide by the end on 2007.

Any guesses anyone? 7 million? 8?

Amazing considering the current userbase

I'm not sure the numbers for Europe, but I'm guessing they're not quite as good as US's. More realistic is prolly around 6 mil, which is still incredible.

Cerebral Assassin · Nov 20, 2007

The remarkable thing about this list is that it includes only one new property: Wii Play. Everything else is part of an existing game franchise, and in the case of Spider-Man 3, a property tied to a movie. At least half of these titles sold over a million copies in a single month.

By comparison, some of the most notable original titles this year have sold well under a million copies. BioShock on the Xbox 360 may end up the best-selling new property of 2007. Yet, in its third month it has sold no more than 800,000 copies. It will certainly break a million by the end of the year, but it is the exception rather than the rule for original games.

This doesn't bode well for the industry if it can't find a bigger market for new franchises. Although Assassins C seems to be selling well and ME is around the corner so not all doom and gloom yet( although the numbers for SMG around the world are truly depressing, will we get numbers for that in the US? or only if Nintendo announces them?)

F#A#Oo · Nov 20, 2007

Gadfly said:
I don't think that's realistic. 500K is more like it.

On the other hand I think Sony will do better than 500K.

600k-700k for 360...

PS3? Maybe can scrape 400k together optimistcally. But I'm expecting 300k and below.

Shepherd · Nov 20, 2007

Gadfly said:
Thanks for sharing. regarding:

I don't think that's realistic. 500K is more like it.

On the other hand I think Sony will do better than 500K.

Nov

360 600K
PS3 400K

xbhaskarx · Nov 20, 2007

Gadfly said:
I don't think that's realistic. 500K is more like it.

On the other hand I think Sony will do better than 500K.

So you think the PS3 will outsell the 360 in the US this November?
I'd be surprised if it did half the 360's sales.

Edit: as long as people are guessing...
360 700k-1m
PS3 275k-375k

Gadfly · Nov 20, 2007

xbhaskarx said:
So you think the PS3 will outsell the 360 in the US this November?
I'd be surprised if it did half the 360's sales.

Edit: as long as people are guessing...
360 700k-1m
PS3 275k-375k

It's going to be close (10-20 percent of each other). 360 definitely will not do 1 million. Far from it.

Hammer24 · Nov 20, 2007

xbhaskarx said:
Edit: as long as people are guessing...
360 700k-1m
PS3 275k-375k

Aaaah, some muscle flexing warm-ups for the NPD prediction...
Wii 1000k
360 800k
PS3 450k

Hammer24 · Nov 20, 2007

Gadfly said:
It's going to be close (10-20 percent of each other). 360 definitely will not do 1 million. Far from it.

Because the 360 will do so much less, or because the PS3 will do so much more? Whats your take?

Gadfly · Nov 20, 2007

Hammer24 said:
Because the 360 will do so much less, or because the PS3 will do so much more? Whats your take?

360 doing much less. (close to half a million).

And PS3 will do fine. at $400 many will grab one as a Blue Ray player if for nothing else. The same reason I bought mine.

If they did 100K beginning of November, 125K/week average for the entire month is not out of reach.

Rolf NB · Nov 20, 2007

No PSP games have made the top 10 list for over a year. Given the struggling UMD movie market, one wonders just what all those people are doing once they buy the system.

Psychotext · Nov 20, 2007

Gadfly said:
If they did 100K beginning of November, 125K/week average for the entire month is not out of reach.

Really hard to tell at this stage... the 75k number didn't really materialise so I'm taking their PR with a pinch of salt (especially after Stringer just said they had 200 million PS2 customers). Either way I think we'll get a good idea of the future of the PS3 in the US based on November's figures.

Brakara · Nov 20, 2007

Hammer24 said:
Aaaah, some muscle flexing warm-ups for the NPD prediction...
Wii 1000k
360 800k
PS3 450k

Yeah, those would be within my predictions too. Or maybe in the ranges of:

Wii 900-1100k - depending on supply
360 700-800k - around 2 times last month's result (last year they did more like 2.5 times, but the Halo and price cut effect is still wearing off)
PS3 400-500k - 100-125k weekly average sounds about right, almost on par with 360 last year

Meier · Nov 20, 2007

Sho_Nuff82 said:
I can't believe Spiderman 3 sold that well. Enter the Matrix has some company, christ.

That's actually quite terribly. I feel like SM2 for PS2 alone did well past 2 million units. All of the movie tie-ins were down this year.. Pirates absolutely bombed.

Kreuzader · Nov 20, 2007

davepoobond said:
PSP sales are unusual, i think we really have to look at total software sold for the platform month by month rather than singular titles to see how well that market is doing.

Here's another data point from EA though:

Finally, the DS' game sales also surged, up from $14 million in 2006 to $47 million in 2007 - but the PSP's plummeted, down from $64 million in 2006 to $21 million in 2007.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=16152

tanod · Nov 20, 2007

heidern said:
Maybe if you also compared other systems August and October numbers that would give a clearer/better example?

My thoughts exactly. It's not a fair comparison otherwise. What jvm did was look for information to support a foregone conclusion of 30% industry wide growth.

That's a significant omission/mistake, IMO.

Mamesj · Nov 20, 2007

RumFore said:
I think Sony should have marketed the PSP differently. I mainly use it for music, movies and I even surf the web on it. They should marketed it more like MP3 player with gaming functionality. Most times I find myself listening to music or a podcast on it while I play the DS.

So instead of going up against the invincible Nintendo handheld, they should've gone after the Ipod? :lol Don't forget MS pro duo storage was super expensive at launch and still is compared to the storage you get on MP3 players.

fatigues_gasolini · Nov 20, 2007

I feel bad for the PSP. It has a great catalog of games, and some that are just plain fantastic, but no one is buying those games.

Sho_Nuff82 · Nov 20, 2007

JJConrad said:
By skipping over September, you're downplaying a big reason why 360 sales were so high in October. You can't expect the 360 to maintain its August vs. October growth for the rest of the year, because it is still trending down from the effect of Halo 3 in September... the stat is basically useless.

Consoles always trend up from October to November, and from November to December. Still, the 360's spike is much more likely to be residual Halo rather than the Arcade SKU.

Second, the Bioshock number is misleading. 800k is for the 360 and PC combined. The 360 version alone is at about 675k. You probably shouldn't call it " the best-selling new property of 2007," with Wii Play there (it is also a 2007 title in the US).

Wii Play's bundling makes it difficult to assess its demand versus other standalone games. I don't see anything disingenuous about the Bioshock numbers, as Bioshock on PC is still Bioshock, even though the 360 is the lead sales platform. Take Two still makes money on every copy sold.

Third, you used the combined SKU numbers for Halo 3, but it wouldn't be the #1 title if you also used the combined SKU numbers of the PS2 and 360 versions of GH3 (bundle and stand-alone). I know that's how NPD reported the numbers but it still a little confusing/misleading.

This is true, but he goes on to say that Halo's #1 ranking is moot since Guitar Hero sold about 3x as much for the month.

I don't think Halo 3 will make the Top 10 simply due to so many major titles being released in November.... Mario, COD4, Assasin's Creed, Mario Vs. Sonic, Mass Effect, Rock Band plus GH3's second week and on.

Guitar Hero and Rock Band are supply constrained which may prevent them from dominating the list as much as they could, but this is still a pretty bold prediction. Halo sales might actually go UP over the holidays. I wouldn't be surprised if it sold another 400k in November.

Gadfly said:
I don't think that's realistic. 500K is more like it.

On the other hand I think Sony will do better than 500K.

If trends hold from previous holidays, the 360 will sell at least 700k in November. PS3 on the other hand would have to more than quadruple to sell 500k. This is not a particularly sound prediction.

tanod · Nov 20, 2007

Throwing my hat into the PS360 prediction for November.

PS3 - 360,000 - 500,000
360 - 450,000 - 650,000 (a doubling of October as per historical standards but taking into account that sales are trending downward from the Halo 3 launch)

I will get around to reading the full article in a bit but I would like to say that I enjoy reading your analysis. It is generally very-well done and much more comprehensive and accurate than other writeups around the web. Big props for consistently using the weekly numbers.

Support NeoGAF

October NPD Analysis (next-gen.biz)

Gamasutra.

Member

Member

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery

Gamasutra.

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Gamasutra.

you can't put a price on sparks

Banned

Member

Banned

Banned

Member

Unconfirmed Member

Member

Member

Junior Member

Member

Banned

Member

Member

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"

Sucks at viral marketing

Member

Banned

Member

aka Collingwood

FREAKING OUT MAN

Member

Banned

Shepherd

Unconfirmed Member

Member

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"

Banned

Banned

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

when is my burrito

Banned

Member

Member

when is my burrito

Similar threads