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Assistant Producer on MGS4: A Million Copies Must Be Sold Day 1 To Justify Cost= DUH!

S

Superblatt

Member
Ryan Patton, the Assistant Producer on Metal Gear Solid 4, has told Reuters Sony needs to sell a million copies on the launch day to justify the game's costly production.

http://www.reuters.com/article/tech...3120071129?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

**Mention MGS4 on 360 and Roll The Dice With the Band Wagon**

Reuters said:
Payton said the new "Metal Gear Solid" needs to sell over a million copies on the first day it goes on sale due to its costly production, but that may be a tough mark to hit given sluggish PS3 sales.

As of October, only 2 million PS3s had been sold in the United States, compared to 5.2 million Wii consoles from rival Nintendo and 7.2 million Xbox 360s from Microsoft, according to market research firm NPD.

A year after its release, only two PS3 games have sold more than 1 million copies, a benchmark of financial success for a big-budget game. The 7-year-old PlayStation 2 had nearly 100 games sell more than a million copies.
Click to expand...

I think selling a million copies is possible easily, but on day one? If they double their install base by the game's release, they'll still be asking 25% of their install base to buy it on the launch date (or close to it). I don't even think Halo 3 got near that in the first week. I might be wrong on that though.

Unfortunately, I'd have to agree with Adam Sessler, who was also quoted in this article. I'm personally a big MGS fan, but honestly don't believe the game carries the mass appeal that other recent breakaway hits have had. Wasn't MGS3 a letdown sales wise compared to MGS2? If so, that's not a good trend.

Edit: Anyone notice that Kotaku is running this story as an "exclusive"? :lol They do know what Reuters is, right?

Reuters said:
"No, 'Metal Gear Solid 4' isn't the killer app," said Adam Sessler, a video game critic on the G4 network. "People who already own a PS3 will likely get it. But it doesn't have that kind of broad-based appeal."
Click to expand...
 
X

xbhaskarx

Member
"...they'll still be asking 25% of their install base to buy it on the launch date (or close to it). I don't even think Halo got near that in the first week."

Do you mean Halo or Halo 3?
 
W

WrikaWrek

Banned
I doubt it does it day 1. But i don't see how 1 million copies is enough, because if it is then this game wasn't that expensive to make.
 
G

glaurung

Member
No to jump the gun here, but I think that is highly unlikely to happen.

Maybe Japan will hoard up ~400 000 units, but that's about it.

Other regions will be lagging behind, I estimate the million to hit during the first month of release.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
WrikaWrek said:
I doubt it does it day 1. But i don't see how 1 million copies is enough, because if it is then this game wasn't that expensive to make.
Click to expand...

He doesn't mean one million copies will make things profitable. He means that their financial expectations and projected sales patterns assume a minimum of 1mln copies will be sold day one for the project to be a success long term.
 
W

WrikaWrek

Banned
glaurung said:
No to jump the gun here, but I think that is highly unlikely to happen.

Maybe Japan will hoard up ~400 000 units, but that's about it.

Other regions will be lagging behind, I estimate the million to hit during the first month of release.
Click to expand...

? MGS sells the worst in Japan. It's not that big of a deal overthere.

And is this a worldwide releasE?

Stumpokapow said:
He doesn't mean one million copies will make things profitable. He means that their financial expectations and projected sales patterns assume a minimum of 1mln copies will be sold day one for the project to be a success long term.
Click to expand...

So they want like Halo 3 level success +-. Hmm, i don't know about that.
 
X

xbhaskarx

Member
WrikaWrek said:
I doubt it does it day 1. But i don't see how 1 million copies is enough, because if it is then this game wasn't that expensive to make.
Click to expand...

Read. In this case, even just the headline would suffice.
He didn't say 1 million copies total is enough, he said it has to sell a million copies Day 1.
 
S

Superblatt

Member
xbhaskarx said:
"...they'll still be asking 25% of their install base to buy it on the launch date (or close to it). I don't even think Halo got near that in the first week."

Do you mean Halo or Halo 3?
Click to expand...

If there are two million PS3's sold, and they double their install base to four million, they'll need to capture 25% of the PS3 base to hit that 1 million mark on day one.

Seems pretty far fetched...no?
 
S

SaggyMonkey

Member
What does he mean by "Sony needs to sell?" Did they pony up for the entire development budget? Also what sort of crap is trying to force a day one number. Like the money made from the rest of the week or year doesn't matter?

Otherwise aside from this being an odd quote, I'm not sure why it would be news that an expensive development cycle would need a lot of sales to break even.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
If you need to sell a million day one for any third-party exclusive this gen, you should have maybe asked for a bigger moneyhat?

That said, I'd expect them to hit a million worldwide within the first reporting periods. They can't possibly be expecting a million in North America.
 
R

Ranger X

Member
WrikaWrek said:
I doubt it does it day 1. But i don't see how 1 million copies is enough, because if it is then this game wasn't that expensive to make.
Click to expand...

Exactly. This all doesn't really make sense.
First of all, selling one million copies in one day or one month is the game thing. You only need to reach X umber of copies sold before the price drops to break even and/or make profit. If that number is reach day one or week 3 it doesn't matter at all.

Also, if they only need 1 million copies to break even, MGS4 was indeed cheap to produce. People around here would be surprised if i was telling them how many copies it would take for Assassin to break even...
 
N

[Nintex]

Member
It should do well in Europe, but 1 million on the first day is just impossible. They should really expand the franchise to other systems.
 
C

crazyscreenwriter

Banned
Anyone remember Oral Roberts back in the late 80s? TV Minister who gently threatened that if people didn't send him one million dollars God was going to send him "Home" (quaint euphemism for kill him)?

Somehow this reminds me of that.
 
D

duckroll

Member
Red Blaster said:
Why does it matter that they sell a million on launch day? Are all sales on day two and beyond irrelevant?
Click to expand...

Maybe after the people that buy it on day 1 realize what a piece of turd it is, that it's 2 hours long, and there's only one real area which we've all seen in the demo, there won't be any more sales?
 
W

WrikaWrek

Banned
xbhaskarx said:
Read. In this case, even just the headline would suffice.
He didn't say 1 million copies total is enough, he said it has to sell a million copies Day 1.
Click to expand...

Yes, but i was trying to see if that was really it. Because isn't that asking for the game to do Halo 3 level of success? Kinda asking too much of old snake imo.

Ranger X said:
Exactly. This all doesn't really make sense.
First of all, selling one million copies in one day or one month is the game thing. You only need to reach X umber of copies sold before the price drops to break even and/or make profit. If that number is reach day one or week 3 it doesn't matter at all.

Also, if they only need 1 million copies to break even, MGS4 was indeed cheap to produce. People around here would be surprised if i was telling them how many copies it would take for Assassin to break even...
Click to expand...

But in Assassins Creed it's building a franchise, so you aren't thinking just about AC1 when you budget it, you are thinking about how much you will make out of 2 and 3 if the franchise takes off (AC1 is being a success so things look good).

In MGs4 case, and taking into account the platform it's on. Hell i don't care, give me the game.
 
R

Red Blaster

Member
duckroll said:
Maybe after the people that buy it on day 1 realize what a piece of turd it is, that it's 2 hours long, and there's only one real area which we've all seen in the demo, there won't be any more sales?
Click to expand...


Also it's the benchmark that determines whether or nor Ryan Payton keeps his job at Kojima Productions.
 
P

Prine

Banned
So its more expensive then Shenmue ? Wonder what Sega was thinking when Yu Suzuki applied for all those bank loans
 
D

DieH@rd

Banned
MGS4 will have simultaneous worldwide release. Its not hard to imagine 1 milion sold on day 1.

Japan will have 3-400k minimum, NA will have more than 500k, and EU will be same as NA [after all, we didnt get EU Extreme difficulity for nothing :D]
 
G

GameOver117

Banned
just looking at ps3 software sales trends I doubt it can do a million copies day one. maybe in the coming months after it gets released.

curious to see how ps3 software sells this holiday and how games like uncharted do, because as it stands ps3 owners dont seem to be buying software and if they are it's third-party titles. (MGS4 is a third party title I know but it might as well be listed under first party)

Who knows really.
 
X

xbhaskarx

Member
Superblatt said:
If there are two million PS3's sold, and they double their install base to four million, they'll need to capture 25% of the PS3 base to hit that 1 million mark on day one.

Seems pretty far fetched...no?
Click to expand...

I agree, I do not think MGS4 will get 25% of the PS3's US install base in one day.

But you said: "...they'll still be asking 25% of their install base to buy it on the launch date (or close to it). I don't even think Halo got near that in the first week."

And I asked if you meant the original Halo or Halo 3.
 
I

IronicallyTwisted

Banned
SaggyMonkey said:
What does he mean by "Sony needs to sell?" Did they pony up for the entire development budget? Also what sort of crap is trying to force a day one number. Like the money made from the rest of the week or year doesn't matter?

Otherwise aside from this being an odd quote, I'm not sure why it would be news that an expensive development cycle would need a lot of sales to break even.
Click to expand...

Depends on the financial structure of the company developing the game. A dollar today is worth a hell of a lot more than a dollar a year from now.
 
T

TheKurgan

Member
It won't happen Day 1 but I could see MGS4 selling 1 million copies in the first month. How many copies did MGS2 and MGS3 sell?
 
W

WrikaWrek

Banned
Prine said:
So its more expensive then Shenmue ? Wonder what Sega was thinking when Yu Suzuki applied for all those bank loans
Click to expand...

Shenmue stopped being the most expensive game ever a long time ago.

mabuza said:
why day one? are they gonna pull it off the shelves the next day?
Click to expand...

From what others have said, maybe it's the question "What happens when a game sells 1 million copies day 1?"

Well the answer is normally "It sells 3 million by the end of the week". Like Halo 3. So if that's what its being talked about, i for one think it's too much of a feat.
 
C

Crusade

Member
A million in one country, or worldwide?

Unfortunately, I'd have to agree with Adam Sessler, who was also quoted in this article. I'm personally a big MGS fan, but honestly don't believe the game carries the mass appeal that other recent breakaway hits have had. Wasn't MGS3 a letdown sales wise compared to MGS2? If so, that's not a good trend.
Click to expand...
How is it the most hyped game on PS3 and probably all of 08 if there's no mass appeal?

Every franchise was sluggish compared to their previous iteration on PS2. Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Kingdom Hearts - you name it. MGS3 didn't have near the hype and expectations of MGS4 either, it still did 4 million worldwide at last count
 
F

Firewire

Banned
xbhaskarx said:
Actually, in this case won't it be Konami's sales hopes & dreams that will be shattered?
Click to expand...


No, their getting development money & that movie deal from Sony for MGS. And MGS4 will sell a million easy, but its unlikely to happen day one.

The only people who will have shattered dreams are those that want it to appear on a certain platform.
 
D

duckroll

Member
beermonkey@tehbias said:
If they want to maximize North American sales, they should really go ahead and delay until November 2008.
Click to expand...

I don't for a moment doubt that MGS4 is a Nov 2008 game. MGS has traditionally been released in Nov in the US and Dec in Japan. Releasing a big budget game like MGS in Summer is suicide imo.
 
M

mr_bishiuk

Banned
Problem is I dont think games have the legs they once did due to the used games market, once people start trading the game in they have to bring the "new" price down.

Early sales are very important
 
DangerStepp

DangerStepp

Member
You think this is to soften up everyone before the big announcement? Kinda like your parents before the imminent divorce: "You know that me and your mama, we want to both be happy..."


MGS 4 on Xbox 360. Day 1 release: Confirmed?
 
L

Lord Error

Insane For Sony
How many X360s were sold end of last year, and how much did Gears sell (I'm asking seriously, I have no clue)

Also, does it really matter for a publisher how much the game sells through if they've already shipped/sold certain number of copies to stores?

I think 1m worldwide day 1 (or week 1, if he was speaking metaphorically) for MGS4 shouldn't be a problem. This was probably more of a warning to Sony to do their best (advertising, etc.) to make sure that it happens.
 
D

Dyno

Member
I understand their need to sell a million copies but why in one day. If they hit a million or more in the span of a couple weeks won't everyone be equally happy.

The statement runs a tad hyperbolic.

Also, aren't they also going to recoup some of the expense with Metal Gear Online? It's a re-use of the game engine and lots of other resources. They're getting as least two games out of their effort.
 
G

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
Maybe to recoup the cost on day one, but I'm not sure why that'd be so urgent..

Also, for those going "jump in" etc. etc. the article is actually all about how it may be the last of the 'great exclusives':

It's a prime example of a game known in the industry as a "third party exclusive", as opposed to "first party" ones made by game-console makers Sony, Microsoft (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Nintendo (7974.OS: Quote, Profile, Research).

For years, the console makers have sought to secure such exclusives as a way to drive adoption of their machines.

"We're telling our fans that if you want to play 'Metal Gear Solid 4', you have to buy a PS3," said Ryan Payton, the assistant producer of the game.

"The PlayStation brand has always been good to us, and we're pretty bullish on the PS3."
Click to expand...
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
duckroll said:
I don't for a moment doubt that MGS4 is a Nov 2008 game. MGS has traditionally been released in Nov in the US and Dec in Japan. Releasing a big budget game like MGS in Summer is suicide imo.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree. I think they should release MGO as a PSN d/l in summer.
 
B

BobsRevenge

I do not avoid women, GAF, but I do deny them my essence.
reuters said:
"No, 'Metal Gear Solid 4' isn't the killer app," said Adam Sessler, a video game critic on the G4 network. "People who already own a PS3 will likely get it. But it doesn't have that kind of broad-based appeal."
Click to expand...
That's just ignorant. That's like saying Halo 3 wouldn't a killer app because everyone who wanted it already had a 360. We all know that just isn't true, at all. Metal Gear Solid 2 sold 7 million copies, so its not like the fan base isn't there. A lot of gamers who have 360's will buy a PS3 sometime next year to play MGS4. A lot of PS2 fans are waiting for Metal Gear Solid 4 to drop before they get one.
 
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