Another month, another set of graphs. Next-Gen
just posted the article I submitted to them on NPD's January 2007 numbers. As I've read over the official results thread, I think a lot of the same stuff has been said, so I'll just try to hold out an item or two as potentially interesting.
Article link.
An attempt to compare previous December-to-January transitions by viewing January sales as a percentage of December sales:
Excepting the 2004-2005 and 2007-2008 numbers, one easily discerns a generally increasing trend from 14% to 17%. That is, January console unit sales about 15% of sales in December. (Remember that January 2007 was five weeks; this has been accounted for in the data presented.)
The exceptional ratio from December 2004 to January 2005 arises from strong sales of the PlayStation 2 and, to a lesser extent, the Xbox (for which Halo 2 had launched in November 2004).
And what of the 21% ratio for December 2007 to January 2008? Here are the specifics.
The PlayStation line of hardware had the highest ratios: PSP at 22%, PS2 at 24%, and the PS3 at 34%.
All other platforms were below it. The Wii and the Xbox 360 were at 20% and 18%, respectively.
Even though the Wii and Xbox 360 did not carry as large a fraction of their December sales into January, it is important to note that their ratios were both larger than the 17% average the previous year. The increasing trend across this graph could be a signal that the industry is supplying products on a timetable that smooths transition from the heights of the Holiday season to the slower months of the new year.
While it is true that a higher ratio is generally better, the PlayStation 3 potentially demonstrates a weakness of this kind of examination. If a system has a particularly weak December and a relatively strong January, then it will have a higher ratio. To interpret its ratio, one must first determine whether PlayStation 3 sales should be considered weak in December 2007.
Despite the shortages claimed by Nintendo and Microsoft, the PlayStation 3 sales would appear to be a true win for Sony. For the past year, the PlayStation 3 has been in a price class essentially all its own. Given that cost disparity which still exists between the Wii/Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3, it isn't unreasonable to assume that unmet demand of the former two platforms does not automatically translate into demand for the latter. That is, a family wanting a Wii at $250 because it is a Wii isn't suddenly going to change its mind and settle for a 40Gb PS3 at $400 with a pack-in copy of Spider-man 3. Perhaps on the Xbox 360 the situation is less clear, but the price and slate of software exclusives still present a nontrivial barrier to switching to the PlayStation 3.
So demand for the PlayStation 3 is quite possibly all demand for that system specifically, whether as a game system, a Blu-Ray player, or both. That reasoning leads one to conclude that January PlayStation 3 sales being a high 34% of December sales is a legitimate measure of improved demand for the system.
That's my reasoning at least. I think others in the official thread may have argued toward a similar conclusion (namely that the PS3 sales show robust support) but this is where I'm coming from when I claim it. I'm perfectly willing to admit that it's not perfect, but there you go.
On top 10 software:
Just on the Xbox 360, games like Call of Duty 4 and Burnout Paradise each retail for $60. The Rock Band bundle retails for $170. And depending on whether you're buying the guitar bundle or the standalone game, Guitar Hero III ranges from $100 down to $60. At a minimum, the Xbox 360 titles alone generated $70 million dollars in revenue during January 2008. The remaining software in the top 10, for the Wii, Nintendo DS, and PlayStation 3, generated over $63 million.
And good ol' Wii Play:
Wii Play has achieved a success that may well be unmatched in the annals of console software sales: It has appeared in the top 10 for 12 successive months. More impressively, it has been in the top 5 for 11 of those 12 months. Given that more than 50% of Wii owners buy Wii Play, it seems possible that Wii Play will continue to place in the top 10 each month until sales of the Wii itself begin to slow.
Serious question: has any game before now been in the top 10 for an entire year? If not, what was the previous record, and what game achieved it?
Final caveat -- over the weekend of writing I was crushed by some sort of flu-like pestilence that my children brought home from daycare, so I'm liable to take a "the virus made me do it" defense if you find an error. That said, please point out factual errors. As previous critics know, I'm not to proud to admit when I've made an error and make sure it gets corrected.
In case you'd like to review previous threads:
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007
