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donny2112 · Jul 4, 2008

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10, and, thus, we should get numbers for them. The new point system will be 20 points for each game with 10 bonus points for the total software %.

Games/Format:

[360 GTAIV]
[360 Ninja Gaiden II]
[PS3 MGS4]
[WII Wii Play]
[WII Mario Kart Wii]
[Total SW $ in millions]

Important Note: NPD does not include system bundles with software totals, so MGS4 PS3 bundles won't be counted toward the MGS4 software total.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 10 p.m. EST on Friday, July 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

Code:

Good                    Bad
[360 GTAIV] 400K       [360 GTAIV] 400 thousand
[360 GTAIV] 400,000    [360 GTAIV] 400.000
[360 GTAIV] 400000     [360 GTAIV] - 400,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

NPD Coverage: June 1 - July 5 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: July 17th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Code:

                              Apr 2008   May 2008

[360 GTAIV]                      1850K       871K
[WII Wii Play]                    360K       295K
[WII Mario Kart Wii]             1120K       787K
[Total SW $ in millions]          $665       $537

Days available in tracking period (new releases):
360 Ninja Gaiden II - 33 days
PS3 MGS4 - 24 days

If you're not sure what to predict for some of these games, welcome to the club. Picking from your gut is a perfectly acceptable method.

schuelma · Jul 4, 2008

Let's see if I can defend my crown!!

[360 GTAIV] 300K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 225K
[PS3 MGS4] 850K
[WII Wii Play] 450K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 550K
[Total SW $ in millions] 685

Threi · Jul 4, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 290K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 280K
[PS3 MGS4] 1010K
[WII Wii Play] 285K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 600K
[Total SW $ in millions] 700

SIP YEK NOD · Jul 4, 2008

[360 GTAIV]590k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II]333k
[PS3 MGS4]890k
[WII Wii Play]144k
[WII Mario Kart Wii]244k
[Total SW $ in millions] 890

boontje · Jul 4, 2008

WiiFit and GTA IV (PS3) are part of the SimExchange NPD predictions so these will certainly be reported as well (and most likely both will be in the top 10 as well), so you could add those 2 titles to the list.

test_account · Jul 4, 2008

donny2112 said:
PS3 GTAIV - 5 days

Why only 5 days? Or is it a typo?

donny2112 · Jul 5, 2008

test_account said:
Why only 5 days? Or is it a typo?

Typo. I went back to April's software thread to get the formatting, and April had that as a game.

boontje said:
so you could add those 2 titles to the list.

Five makes for an easier points setup. Also, I didn't want to make it a carbon copy of TSE's list, if I could help it.

yoopoo · Jul 5, 2008

Lego Indy will probaby the top seller with the 3 console versions combined.

apujanata · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 160K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 250K (guessing without analysis)
[PS3 MGS4] 580K
[WII Wii Play] 340K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 350K
[Total SW $ in millions] 580K

Somnia · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 150k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 300k
[PS3 MGS4] 950k
[WII Wii Play] 400k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 350k
[Total SW $ in millions] 800k

Sean · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 410k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 190k
[PS3 MGS4] 1400k
[WII Wii Play] 310k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 375k
[Total SW $ in millions] 810k

Jammy · Jul 5, 2008

Ugh. All I know is that Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii have been severely supply constrained for the whole month. And that Rock Band Wii and Guitar Hero: Aerosmith have started off better than they should have.

And why are people going so low on Ninja Gaiden II? It seems like a pretty big exclusive, and isn't this the same 360 userbase that buys EVERYTHING?

rikitikitik · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 425k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 350k
[PS3 MGS4] 850k
[WII Wii Play] 215k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 235k
[Total SW $ in millions] 720

KuwabaraTheMan · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 335k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 400k
[PS3 MGS4] 940k
[WII Wii Play] 280k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 500k
[Total SW $ in millions] 710

boontje · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 300k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 330k
[PS3 MGS4] 750k
[WII Wii Play] 380k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 370k
[Total SW $ in millions] 630

test_account · Jul 5, 2008

donny2112 said:
Typo. I went back to April's software thread to get the formatting, and April had that as a game.

Ah ok

AmMortal · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV]200k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 211k
[PS3 MGS4] 870k
[WII Wii Play] 230k
[WII Mario Kart Wii]330k
[Total SW $ in millions] 715

Rekwest · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 300K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 350k
[PS3 MGS4] 850K
[WII Wii Play] 450K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 550K
[Total SW $ in millions] 800k

Brak · Jul 5, 2008

IGN says that GH: On Tour sold 300k first week. I dunno if there was a thread on this already since search is disabled. Anyways, thought you guys might be interested.

kefka2030 · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 329,000
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 289,000
[PS3 MGS4] 692,000
[WII Wii Play] 290,000
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 506,000
[Total SW $ in millions] 590

Scott32020 · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 300k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 300k
[PS3 MGS4] 850k
[WII Wii Play] 300k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 400k
[Total SW $ in millions] 750

Vinci · Jul 5, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 285,000
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 310,000
[PS3 MGS4] 765,000
[WII Wii Play] 205,000
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 525,000
[WII Wii Fit] 110,000
[Total SW $ in millions] 665

Fuzz Rez · Jul 5, 2008

Brakara · Jul 6, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 325k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 275k
[PS3 MGS4] 800k
[WII Wii Play] 325k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 350k
[Total SW $ in millions] 600

andy_lhc · Jul 7, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 210K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 255K
[PS3 MGS4] 750K
[WII Wii Play] 280K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 340K
[Total SW $ in millions] 600K

Accident · Jul 7, 2008

360 GTAIV] 250K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 350k
[PS3 MGS4] 825K
[WII Wii Play] 300K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 350K
[Total SW $ in millions] 650k

jarrod · Jul 7, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 350k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 300k
[PS3 MGS4] 1050k
[WII Wii Play] 300k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 450k

donny2112 · Jul 7, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 400K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 385K
[PS3 MGS4] 675K (not including another 100K from PS3 bundles)
[WII Wii Play] 350K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 405K
[Total SW $ in millions] 675

PistolGrip · Jul 7, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 350k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 400k
[PS3 MGS4] 1100k
[WII Wii Play] 300k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 400k

Hammer24 · Jul 9, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 285K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 275K
[PS3 MGS4] 815K
[WII Wii Play] 405K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 305K
[Total SW $ in millions] 695K

rostocker · Jul 10, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 345K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 423K
[PS3 MGS4] 745K
[WII Wii Play] 339K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 399K
[Total SW $ in millions] 650

crimsonheadGCN · Jul 10, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 350,000
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 425,000
[PS3 MGS4] 835,000
[WII Wii Play] 290,000
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 400,000
[Total SW $ in millions] 685

RBH · Jul 10, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 400k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 350k
[PS3 MGS4] 750k
[WII Wii Play] 250k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 300k
[Total SW $ in millions] $700

Jesse2040 · Jul 10, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 230k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 300k
[PS3 MGS4] 802k
[WII Wii Play] 353k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 393k
[Total SW $ in millions] 745M

Jesse2040 · Jul 10, 2008

EEDAR is working on a new forecasting product that will forecast retail sales for every single retail SKU (over 5,000+). The estimates that I made this month were actually forecasted a while back, but to work out the bugs in our system, I am trying to minimize making any manual edits (there are forecasts I know to be wrong). New Releases will continue to be the toughest

Anything already out is pretty easy to forecast.

Let me know if anyone needs anything.

Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots -------- PS3 -------- 802,555
FIT -------- WII -------- 485,000
MARIO KART -------- WII -------- 393,705
Battlefield: Bad Company -------- 360 -------- 375,000* Adjusted, originally expected over 500k+, but online play popularity was weaker than expected
PLAY W/ REMOTE -------- WII -------- 353,545
Guitar Hero: On Tour -------- DS -------- 350,000 *Adjusted due to ATVI press release
Ninja Gaiden II -------- 360 -------- 300,000
GRAND THEFT AUTO IV -------- 360 -------- 229,000
LEGO Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures -------- WII -------- 155,000
LEGO Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures -------- PS2 -------- 155,000
Battlefield: Bad Company -------- PS3 -------- 145,000 *Adjusted
GRAND THEFT AUTO IV -------- PS3 -------- 143,432
Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit -------- 360 -------- 126,588
LEGO Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures -------- DS -------- 125,000
NASCAR 09 -------- 360 -------- 123,750
Grid -------- 360 -------- 119,844
Don King Presents: Prizefighter -------- 360 -------- 116,400
LEGO Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures -------- 360 -------- 115,000
SUPER SMASH BROS: BRAWL -------- WII -------- 106,964
GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK -------- WII -------- 102,824
Top Spin 3 -------- 360 -------- 100,750
Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit -------- PS3 -------- 93,750
GOD OF WAR II -------- PS2 -------- 90,626
Rock Band: Special Edition -------- WII -------- 89,555
BOOM BLOX -------- WII -------- 53,053
MARIO KART -------- DS -------- 84,459
GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK -------- PS2 -------- 83,772
NEW SUPER MARIO BROS -------- DS -------- 82,544
Robert Ludlum's The Bourne Conspiracy -------- 360 -------- 80,752
MARIO PARTY -------- DS -------- 78,498
CROSSWORDS DS -------- DS -------- 76,318
Alone in the Dark -------- 360 -------- 75,900
CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE -------- 360 -------- 75,000
WE SKI -------- WII -------- 74,717
IMAGINE: BABYZ -------- DS -------- 74,352
POKEMON MYSTERY DUNGEON: EXPLORE -------- DS -------- 72,404
POKEMON MYSTERY DUNGEON: EXPLORE -------- DS -------- 72,394

Frillen · Jul 10, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 480k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 320k
[PS3 MGS4] 730k
[WII Wii Play] 300k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 480k
[Total SW $ in millions] 720

radjago · Jul 10, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 280K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 320K
[PS3 MGS4] 880K
[WII Wii Play] 340K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 440K
[Total SW $ in millions] 640

seattle6418 · Jul 10, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 432k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 328k
[PS3 MGS4] 764k
[WII Wii Play] 387k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 320k
[Total SW $ in millions] 670

Chumly · Jul 11, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 300k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 300k
[PS3 MGS4] 700k
[WII Wii Play] 350k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 450k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700

megaman511 · Jul 11, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 350K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 300K
[PS3 MGS4] 900K
[WII Wii Play] 400K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 450K
[Total SW $ in millions] 630

starship · Jul 11, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 300k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 340k
[PS3 MGS4] 730k
[WII Wii Play] 360k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 280k
[Total SW $ in millions] 680k

cuate · Jul 11, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 410K
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 270K
[PS3 MGS4] 1000K
[WII Wii Play] 320K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 450K
[Total SW $ in millions] 630

apujanata · Jul 11, 2008

Jesse2040 said:
EEDAR is working on a new forecasting product that will forecast retail sales for every single retail SKU (over 5,000+). The estimates that I made this month were actually forecasted a while back, but to work out the bugs in our system, I am trying to minimize making any manual edits (there are forecasts I know to be wrong). New Releases will continue to be the toughest Anything already out is pretty easy to forecast.

Let me know if anyone needs anything.

FIT -------- WII -------- 485,000
MARIO KART -------- WII -------- 393,705
BOOM BLOX -------- WII -------- 53,053

I need your Battle of the Bands Wii prediction

If your prediction of is right on money, I am going to get some profit on simExchange.
nice boom blox #. Don't forget to tell us your result against NPD

.

llonesmiz · Jul 11, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 450k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 420k
[PS3 MGS4] 700k
[WII Wii Play] 350k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 350k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700

B-Rad Lascelle · Jul 11, 2008

Jesse2040 said:
EEDAR is working on a new forecasting product that will forecast retail sales for every single retail SKU (over 5,000+). The estimates that I made this month were actually forecasted a while back, but to work out the bugs in our system, I am trying to minimize making any manual edits (there are forecasts I know to be wrong). New Releases will continue to be the toughest Anything already out is pretty easy to forecast.

No Guitar Hero: Aerosmith? Seems conspicuous in its absence.

botticus · Jul 11, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 400k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 300k
[PS3 MGS4] 750k
[WII Wii Play] 325k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 500k
[Total SW $ in millions] 600

BuzzJive · Jul 11, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 345k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 234k
[PS3 MGS4] 567k
[WII Wii Play] 345k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 357k
[Total SW $ in millions] 599

Alcibiades · Jul 11, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 375,000
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 325,000
[PS3 MGS4] 400,000
[WII Wii Play] 275,000
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 475,000
[Total SW $ in millions] 615

Spiegel · Jul 11, 2008

[360 GTAIV] 345k
[360 Ninja Gaiden II] 287k
[PS3 MGS4] 915k
[WII Wii Play] 338k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 273k
[Total SW $ in millions] 684k

Jesse2040 · Jul 11, 2008

It's a new product in beta testing. So some titles go missing, but with Aerosmith, I think overall sales might be strong, but keep in mind that this thing has like 10 different retail SKUS.

Also, my battlefield bad company figures might be too high. I am getting early reports that sales were not as strong as I expected. And the popularity of the online play did not meet my projections as well.

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