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donny2112 · May 2, 2010

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 for the month or at least get numbers for.

Games/Format:

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction]
[360 Super Street Fighter IV]
[PS3 God of War III]
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV]
[WII Monster Hunter Tri]

[Total SW $ in millions]

Code:

Good                            Bad
[PS3 God of War III] 300K       [PS3 God of War III] 300 thousand
[PS3 God of War III] 300,000    [PS3 God of War III] 300.000
[PS3 God of War III] 300000     [PS3 God of War III] - 300,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, May 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 4-May 1st (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: May 13th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Code:

                               Feb 2010  Mar 2010
[PS3 God of War III]                ---     1100K

[Total SW $ in millions]            624       875

Number of days available for new releases:
360/PS3 Super Street Fighter IV - 5 days
360 Splinter Cell: Conviction - 19 days
WII Monster Hunter Tri - 12 days

February 2009:
360 Street Fighter IV - 446K
PS3 Street Fighter IV - 403K

RurouniZel · May 2, 2010

My predictions

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 530K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 465K
[PS3 God of War III] 260K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 410K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 650K

I admit my number for MH3 is a touch on the "wishful thinking" side, but I think they've done a good job of advertising it so who knows?

Dresden · May 2, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 750K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 250K
[PS3 God of War III] 250K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 300K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 150K

Koopakiller · May 2, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 590K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 390K
[PS3 God of War III] 120K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 391K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 140K

MemoirsofMimi · May 2, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 480K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 121K
[PS3 God of War III] 232K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 99K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 91K

[Total SW $ in millions] 500 million

Pooya · May 2, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 550k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 350K
[PS3 God of War III] 150k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 300K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 100k

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

I think FFXIII will chart too with around ~100k , not sure PS3 or 360 though.

VegaShinra · May 2, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 575k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 330K
[PS3 God of War III] 275k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 300K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 125k

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

Eteric Rice · May 2, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 663k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 275k
[PS3 God of War III] 380k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 130k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 230k

Total SW $ in millions] 550

ZeroRay · May 2, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 500K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 370K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 350K
[PS3 God of War III] 300K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 150K

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

Baki · May 2, 2010

RurouniZel said:
My predictions

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 530K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 465K
[PS3 God of War III] 260K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 410K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 650K

I admit my number for MH3 is a touch on the "wishful thinking" side, but I think they've done a good job of advertising it so who knows?

Thats more than optimistic considering its euro performance. :lol (~150K is a tad more realistic).

RurouniZel · May 3, 2010

Baki said:
Thats more than optimistic considering its euro performance. :lol (~150K is a tad more realistic).

I want to believe! :lol

Rush2thestart · May 3, 2010

Baki said:
Thats more than optimistic considering its euro performance. :lol (~150K is a tad more realistic).

It debuted at number 5...

But yeah, I think 650k is way too high.

hxa155 · May 3, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 550k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 200k
[PS3 God of War III] 250k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 250k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 100k

Nirolak · May 3, 2010

Rush2thestart said:
It debuted at number 5...

But yeah, I think 650k is way too high.

It debuted at #5 in the slowest week in the UK market in four years.

donny2112 · May 3, 2010

Nirolak said:
It debuted at #5 in the slowest week in the UK market in four years.

And it could've debuted at #5 on a non-slow week that has a wide spread between #1 and #5, i.e. just about every week with a big new launch. The "slowest week in four years" thing is pointless. It probably sold ~17K, and that would be regardless of how the market was overall that week. i.e. 17K in a slow week does not somehow translate into less units than 17K in a heavy week.

velvet_nitemare · May 3, 2010

Nirolak said:
It debuted at #5 in the slowest week in the UK market in four years.

Is the UK market still ahead of the japanese one? Coulda sworn i read that somewhere. If so, Japan is even more fucked than i thought.

Garjon · May 4, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 600k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 350k
[PS3 God of War III] 225k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 400k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 290k

[Total SW $ in millions] 570

andy_lhc · May 5, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 550K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 330K
[PS3 God of War III] 210K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 230K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 120K

TheFLYINGManga_Ka · May 5, 2010

Super Street Fighter IV, hands-down.

Maybe SC Conviction might be there and we'll see some Wii games like Mario Kart, Wii-Sports Resorts, etc.

But I think it's Super SFIV's month.

blackMamba1187 · May 5, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 450K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 350K
[PS3 God of War III] 450K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 300K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 250K

WaltJay · May 6, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 400K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 270K
[PS3 God of War III] 550K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 280K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 90K

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

Brakara · May 6, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 450k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 320k
[PS3 God of War III] 220k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 270k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 250k

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

A Link to the Past · May 6, 2010

Why ain't there any predictions for HeartGold/SoulSilver? They'll probably wind up being the best-selling games of April combined.

timetokill · May 6, 2010

Posting to give this a bump as well as subscribe so I can remember to predict... I hadn't seen the thread and was worried I'd missed the deadline!

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 430k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 330k
[PS3 God of War III] 250k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 310k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 160k

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

user_nat · May 7, 2010

I guess I'm fairly pessimistic about this month.

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 400K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 240K
[PS3 God of War III] 160K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 200K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 140K

edit: to go even lower! No reason.

donny2112 · May 7, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 300K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 400K
[PS3 God of War III] 225K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 350K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 185K

[Total SW $ in millions] 525

Hammer24 · May 7, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 375K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 415K
[PS3 God of War III] 225K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 305K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 205K

[Total SW $ in millions] 545

Jesse2040 · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 500k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 100K
[PS3 God of War III] 250k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 100K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 100k

[Total SW $ in millions] 512

rostocker · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 609k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 105K
[PS3 God of War III] 230K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 100K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 170K

[Total SW $ in millions] 555

TheThunder · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 425k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 125K
[PS3 God of War III] 250k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 140K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 110k

boontje · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 525k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 140k
[PS3 God of War III] 225k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 130k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 150k

[Total SW $ in millions] 540

nico · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 600k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 200k
[PS3 God of War III] 150k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 200k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 200k

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

starship · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 350k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 220k
[PS3 God of War III] 220k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 240k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 135k

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

Road · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 379k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 139K
[PS3 God of War III] 189K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 149k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 99k

[Total SW $ in millions] 511

RBH · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 500k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 140k
[PS3 God of War III] 300k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 200k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 170k

[Total SW $ in millions] 700

apujanata · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 480K
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 150K
[PS3 God of War III] 275K
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 130K
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 150K

[Total SW $ in millions] 510

kinggroin · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 380k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 290k
[PS3 God of War III] 255k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 230k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 95k

[Total SW $ in millions] 475

selig · May 9, 2010

[360 Splinter Cell: Conviction] 460k
[360 Super Street Fighter IV] 56k
[PS3 God of War III] 88k
[PS3 Super Street Fighter IV] 35k
[WII Monster Hunter Tri] 280k

[Total SW $ in millions] 425

Not as optimistic as the other guy above, but I still hope for higher sales for MH3 than most of the people in here. It simply deserves it.

boontje · May 14, 2010

This is probably our last software prediction thread now that NPD only reports numbers for the top 5.

Pooya · May 14, 2010

boontje said:
This is probably our last software prediction thread now that NPD only reports numbers for the top 5.

I thought it was for this month only, it's going to like that in future?

Hammer24 · May 14, 2010

boontje said:
This is probably our last software prediction thread now that NPD only reports numbers for the top 5.

Well, now donny has only to guess a little harder what the Top5 may be... ;-)

timetokill · May 14, 2010

boontje said:
This is probably our last software prediction thread now that NPD only reports numbers for the top 5.

What a depressing thought.

Maybe we can do an alternate prediction thread, where people try and rank the games in the order they think they will come in. Something like:

+1 point for each game in the top 10 guessed correctly
+1 point for each game guessed in the correct position
+5 points for getting the top 5 correct

+some amount of points for sales prediction accuracy for top 3 titles

or something along those lines!

donny2112 · May 24, 2010

Did we ever get an official report for MH3 numbers? I know there was a vague leak, but we can't use that for prediction results. It has to come from a press site. If not, we'll just exclude MH3 from the prediction results and go forward.

For May, I think we'll keep things the same as this month. If we end up missing some sales, we'll just exclude them from the results. Most of the Top 10 came out this month + some extra, so there's still a chance we could get the numbers we're predicting for. We'll try that in May, and see how it goes.

donny2112 · May 28, 2010

MH3 not included, since there apparently wasn't a press site reporting the number.

April 2010 Software Prediction Results

Code:

     April 2010                  Last 3 Months                Overall 2010
1.   Road               85.06    boontje             262.46   boontje             350.82
2.   TheThunder         82.73    Road                256.52   Jesse2040           349.62
3.   boontje            82.12    Jesse2040           255.31   Road                334.8
4.   MemoirsofMimi      81.82    user_nat            236.22   user_nat            318.35
5.   Jesse2040          80.25    rostocker           235.26   andy_lhc            317.77
6.   rostocker          78.58    andy_lhc            225.76   rostocker           298.65
7.   apujanata          74.56    GAF Average         215.72   RBH                 288.2
8.   RBH                65.32    RBH                 215.31   GAF Average         286.6
9.   selig              64.94    donny2112           202.73   donny2112           285.22
10.  nico               58.68    starship            202.57   Hammer24            280.81
11.  user_nat           57.79    Hammer24            200.01   Brakara             278.63
12.  andy_lhc           52.39    Brakara             199.44   starship            275.39
13.  GAF Average        49.01    timetokill          197.35   timetokill          272.36
14.  hxa155             47.05    Garjon              183.12   apujanata           244.54
15.  starship           45.54    WaltJay             171.02   WaltJay             236.36
16.  Brakara            45.44    botticus            162.86   Garjon              233.39
17.  kinggroin          43.98    apujanata           157.91   seady               222.58
18.  miladesn           42.51    seady               150.99   botticus            220.72
19.  Eteric Rice        38.63    nico                141.62   dolemite            188.57
20.  Hammer24           38.09    hxa155              137.41   VegaShinra          155.41
21.  Garjon             37.94    Baki                130.36   KuwabaraTheMan      141.77
22.  timetokill         37.45    dolemite            129.26   nico                141.62
23.  RurouniZel         36.69    VegaShinra          110.38   The_lascar          141.3
24.  Koopakiller        36.3     miladesn            108.2    hxa155              137.41
25.  donny2112          34.23    thestopsign          93.19   Baki                130.36
26.  ZeroRay            32.69    cosmicblizzard       92.4    Danthrax            110.17
27.  VegaShinra         32.3     Deadman              90.15   miladesn            108.2
28.  Dresden            26.76    Averon               86.77   thestopsign          93.19
29.  blackMamba1187     23.14    Teetris              86.14   cosmicblizzard       92.4
30.  WaltJay            21.62    Mystery              83.38   Deadman              90.15

Congratulations, Road!

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