• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

How long would it take for Germany to develop a nuclear warhead?

Status
Not open for further replies.
R

Roude Leiw

Member
I am wondering how long it would take for Germany (a country which is pretty highly developed compared to states like Pakistan or Iran) to develop a nuclear bomb with a working intercontinental ballistic missile under the assumption that there wouldn't be any knowledge and technology transfer between them and a state which owns nuclear weapons.

I think they might need 5-10 years. What do you guys think?
 
UltimaKilo

UltimaKilo

Gold Member
Roude Leiw said:
I am wondering how long it would take for Germany (a country which is pretty highly developed compared to states like Pakistan or Iran) to develop a nuclear bomb with a working intercontinental ballistic missile under the assumption that there wouldn't be any knowledge and technology transfer between them and a state which owns nuclear weapons.

I think they might need 5-10 years. What do you guys think?
Click to expand...

Within a few months. They have no need, between Great Britain and France, the E.U. has more than enough to take care of themselves.
 
R

Roude Leiw

Member
Patryn said:
They already have them.

The U.S. gave them to them. Kinda.
Click to expand...
yeah i know that. what i mean is how long it would take to develop their own warhead. just getting some from the US doesn't count ;P

i am not certain if it would go that fast because if you look at their current defense projects. all took quite some time to complete. e.g. Eurofighter, A400M, Tiger helicopter etc.
 
Goro Majima

Goro Majima

Kitty Genovese Member
3...maybe 4 minutes.

edit: I guess I don't understand the question. I guarantee they're sitting on numerous instructions and materials to make one in a jiffy if they had to. I'm sure you could probably measure the time from wanting to make one to completion in hours.
 
S

saelz8

Member
Roude Leiw said:
yeah i know that. what i mean is how long it would take to develop their own warhead. just getting some from the US doesn't count ;P

i am not certain if it would go that fast because if you look at their current defense projects. all took quite some time to complete. e.g. Eurofighter, A400M, Tiger helicopter etc.
Click to expand...
The pace of those projects are affected by the fact that they are new designs/technology, and funding. Nuclear Warheads would only have a manufacturing requirement, since the designs are probably already there. This is Germany we're talking about.
 
F

FnordChan

Member
The Weimar Republic developed nuclear technology in the late 1920s, culminating in the world's second nuclear device being tested on August 13th, 1930 in the Curuçá River area of Brazil. This research was carried out in total secrecy (with the test device explosion being written off as a meteor strike) and, in the face of the growing power of both the communist and national socialist factions in parliament, the program was discontinued, with President von Hindenburg personally burning all of the documents and papers associated with the program on the eve before Hitler was appointed chancellor. This, along with Wernher von Braun heroically playing dumb for years, was enough to keep the Nazis from developing nuclear technology, though enough rumors had reached Hitler's ears that he ordered a concentrated search for confirmation of this secret weapon. This is, of course, the origin of the South American Nazi theory.

FnordChan
 
L

luoapp

Member
They don' t have ICBM yet, right? Although with their knowledge of Ariane rocket, that should be quick(er than A-bomb).
 
X

xbhaskarx

Member
It would take a few months.
Having the ability to enrich uranium and the ability to launch rockets is not enough, you still have to fashion everything together into a working nuclear warhead and a working ICBM.
 
P

Patrick Bateman

Member
xbhaskarx said:
It would take a few months.
Having the ability to enrich uranium and the ability to launch rockets is not enough, you still have to fashion everything together into a working nuclear warhead and a working ICBM.
Click to expand...


Putting it all together with some duct tape would do, wouldn't it?
 
R

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
FnordChan said:
The Weimar Republic developed nuclear technology in the late 1920s, culminating in the world's second nuclear device being tested on August 13th, 1930 in the Curuçá River area of Brazil. This research was carried out in total secrecy (with the test device explosion being written off as a meteor strike) and, in the face of the growing power of both the communist and national socialist factions in parliament, the program was discontinued, with President von Hindenburg personally burning all of the documents and papers associated with the program on the eve before Hitler was appointed chancellor. This, along with Wernher von Braun heroically playing dumb for years, was enough to keep the Nazis from developing nuclear technology, though enough rumors had reached Hitler's ears that he ordered a concentrated search for confirmation of this secret weapon. This is, of course, the origin of the South American Nazi theory.
Click to expand...

I guess Family Guy got it all wrong then.

Road-to-Germany-family-guy-4784459-512-384.jpg
 
C

CabbageRed

Member
Patrick Bateman said:
Putting it all together with some duct tape would do, wouldn't it?
Click to expand...

I always saw the US and UK (with some France thrown in) as the duct tape crew. Russia throws the needed parts in to a pile, kicks it a few times while cursing until the device suddenly works. Japan does something highly elaborate and we end up with an awesome version of the US's duct tape thing. Germany does something highly elaborate and we end up with unsettling pornography.

At least what they taught us in school.
 
Death Dealer

Death Dealer

Member
In an emergency, they could assemble a viable warhead in a week. Developing an ICBM to carry it would take longer. They obviously have the scientific and industrial know how, but I think it would take at least a few months to get one manufactured.
 
M

maniac-kun

Member
Death Dealer said:
In an emergency, they could assemble a viable warhead in a week. Developing an ICBM to carry it would take longer. They obviously have the scientific and industrial know how, but I think it would take at least a few months to get one manufactured.
Click to expand...
Well we had the rocket technology back in WW2... Today our engineers build rockets for the ESA.
 
Y

Yaweee

Member
maniac-kun said:
Since we have everything we need we probalby could build one in about 6 months if we wanted / had to.
Click to expand...

This, basically. Germany is one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world and is easily one of the world leaders in Physics, almost to the point where not having a nuke at the moment is merely a technicality.
 
element

element

Member
The most difficult part of a nuclear weapon is developing or acquiring enrich uranium, which wouldn't be a problem since Germany has 27 active nuclear reactors.

Developing a missile, depending on distances, could take days to weeks.
 
Hari Seldon

Hari Seldon

Member
It wouldn't be as quick as you think. All of the science is well known but there is still a lot of engineering to do and that kind of stuff takes time.
 
C

ConfusingJazz

Member
6 months to a year if in a pinch. Getting the materials ready, developing a triggering mechanism, improvising a delivery system, etc. While they have all this, it would take time to nail down before they felt comfortable to launch it.
 
element

element

Member
Hari Seldon said:
It wouldn't be as quick as you think. All of the science is well known but there is still a lot of engineering to do and that kind of stuff takes time.
Click to expand...
Many colleges ask students to make a nuclear bomb, and they can create it with parts from a home depot in a matter of weeks. the only thing they don't have is nuclear material.

the missile wouldn't be too difficult to retrofit other devices.

The blocking point for any country is the nuclear material, which Germany has.
 
Phoenix

Phoenix

Member
element said:
The most difficult part of a nuclear weapon is developing or acquiring enrich uranium, which wouldn't be a problem since Germany has 27 active nuclear reactors.

Developing a missile, depending on distances, could take days to weeks.
Click to expand...


Delivery is no small task. If this is your first deliverable, its likely to not be the most efficient warhead so range and capacity aren't going to be that great. Lots of people overlook how difficult it is to put munitions on to missiles.

More than likely if you needed one in a pinch, its going to be dropped from something - not riding on a missile.
 
Hari Seldon

Hari Seldon

Member
element said:
Many colleges ask students to make a nuclear bomb, and they can create it with parts from a home depot in a matter of weeks. the only thing they don't have is nuclear material.

the missile wouldn't be too difficult to retrofit other devices.

The blocking point for any country is the nuclear material, which Germany has.
Click to expand...

Does Germany have the capability to enrich on their own? If they don't, and they couldn't buy the machines necessary, then they would have to build them. Assuming an unlimited budget like the Manhattan Project, I think it would take at least a year for a bomb to be made. Quicker if they can already enrich on their own.

And that is for a bomb, a missile is pretty hard to do. Didn't all of the German rocket technology get confiscated after WWII? That kind of educated trial and error engineering takes time and is not trivial even with modern computers.
 
M

Mad Max

Member
Hari Seldon said:
Does Germany have the capability to enrich on their own? If they don't, and they couldn't buy the machines necessary, then they would have to build them. Assuming an unlimited budget like the Manhattan Project, I think it would take at least a year for a bomb to be made. Quicker if they can already enrich on their own.

And that is for a bomb, a missile is pretty hard to do. Didn't all of the German rocket technology get confiscated after WWII? That kind of educated trial and error engineering takes time and is not trivial even with modern computers.
Click to expand...

Most Western-European countries have the facilities to enrich, including Germany. They could probably get a warhead done in a week or so, since the technology and know-how is already there.

The same goes for rockets. The main difference is that those are harder to build, so that would take a bit longer.
 
F

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Germany (and pretty much all the non-nuclear European nations) has plenty of capable delivery platforms, unless you are actually talking about ICBMs (which shouldn't be a tremendous effort considering Germany's weight in EADS).
 
I

Ignis Fatuus

Banned
Better Question: Who would win if Germany and Japan raced to build a nuke?

Put it in the Guinness book of World Records. "Shortest nuclear program ever."
 
F

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
The_Squirrel_Menace said:
It's nice and all but Germany don't have any where to test them. Only option left is exoatmospheric and that would never happen.
Click to expand...
International waters. That's how South Africa and Israel did it.
 
D

Dreams-Visions

Member
to make one or make one and work out the kinks?

if the later, I'd say around a year. the former -- something untested but would work in theory -- maybe 5 or 6 months.

Assuming ZERO information to start with. and that would be incredibly fast. these "days/weeks" predictions really just speak to a lack of understanding among people about the challenge of creating something like a nuclear warhead.
 
W

Walshicus

Member
ConfusingJazz said:
6 months to a year if in a pinch. Getting the materials ready, developing a triggering mechanism, improvising a delivery system, etc. While they have all this, it would take time to nail down before they felt comfortable to launch it.
Click to expand...
No seriously, Germany could start tomorrow and be done early in February. They have the infrastructure and experience to build at a whim.
 
S

Slavik81

Member
People really expect ANYTHING to happen in a week? That's probably how long the first round of QA inspection takes.
 
D

Dreams-Visions

Member
Sir Fragula said:
No seriously, Germany could start tomorrow and be done early in February. They have the infrastructure and experience to build at a whim.
Click to expand...
the assumption in the OP

"...under the assumption that there wouldn't be any knowledge and technology transfer between them and a state which owns nuclear weapons."

says no, they would not have anything done in "February". Absolutely not. Unless you meant February 2012. It's just not reality. You guys don't understand what you're talking about.
 
C

chicko1983

Member
so how long would it take for Australia to develop a nuclear warhead?

I know we dont need them as all our allies have them, but I have wondered if we could.
 
element

element

Member
Dreams-Visions said:
to make one or make one and work out the kinks?

if the later, I'd say around a year. the former -- something untested but would work in theory -- maybe 5 or 6 months.

Assuming ZERO information to start with. and that would be incredibly fast. these "days/weeks" predictions really just speak to a lack of understanding among people about the challenge of creating something like a nuclear warhead.
Click to expand...
what kinks? this is a nation with all the technology already and has nuclear material.

if they didn't have the nuclear materials, then it would be at least a year if not more.
 
W

Walshicus

Member
Dreams-Visions said:
the assumption in the OP

"...under the assumption that there wouldn't be any knowledge and technology transfer between them and a state which owns nuclear weapons."

says no, they would not have anything done in "February". Absolutely not. Unless you meant February 2012. It's just not reality. You guys don't understand what you're talking about.
Click to expand...
That knowledge doesn't need to be transferred because it already exists. They build space rockets all the time - they have the delivery systems. They have an enrichment program. They have some of the brightest nuclear scientists in the world. They *have* the capacity and the capability.
 
M

Mad Max

Member
Dreams-Visions said:
the assumption in the OP

"...under the assumption that there wouldn't be any knowledge and technology transfer between them and a state which owns nuclear weapons."

says no, they would not have anything done in "February". Absolutely not. Unless you meant February 2012. It's just not reality. You guys don't understand what you're talking about.
Click to expand...

You realise the knowledge and technology is already there right? There doesn't need to be any transfer with a state that owns nuclear arms. Nukes are old technology, and Germany isn't some backwards 3rd world country. Just look at how quickly the USSR and the US were able to build nuclear and later thermonuclear weapons after they managed to create a working design.
 
element

element

Member
The question is pretty much saying how long would it take a country that has established technology to create a missile and currently has enrich uranium to create a nuclear warhead.

You can replace Germany with US, since both countries have all the technology needed to create such a device.

Just look at how quickly the USSR and the US were able to build nuclear and later thermonuclear weapons after they managed to create a working design.
Click to expand...
Like I said above, many US colleges ask students to build a nuclear device as a test. Many can built an operational device, but lack nuclear material to weaponize it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Square Enix president Takashi Kiryu says the company will be “aggressive in applying” AI in its development and publishing efforts in the future
Business Game Dev 2
73
4K
samoilaaa replied
How long before we'll be able to create our own games with AI?
22
1K
FunkMiller replied
VGC: "Phil Spencer, for so long cast as Xbox’s saviour, may ultimately be remembered as the man who killed it.”
Opinion Business 2 3
142
9K
March Climber replied
Todd Howard says Starfield was "intentionally made to be played for a long time" and Bethesda's looking 5+ years ahead
Game Dev 2 3
106
7K
Roberts replied
Fallout - Series Reviews
14 15 16 17 18
886
43K
systemr123 replied
Top Bottom