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July 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 12

D

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, August 12th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: July 7-August 3 (4 weeks, June was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, August 15th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 200K        [360] 200 thousand
[360] 200,000     [360] 200.000
[360] 200000      [360] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in July:

June's Results - thanks to various angles

donny2112 said:
So we'll go with 27K for Vita, then, for predictions. Thanks!

1. 3DS - 225K
2. 360 - 140K
3. PS3 - 108K
...
5. Wii U - 42K
6. Vita - 27K
Click to expand...

June 2012 NPD thread
July 2012 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
D

DaBoss

Member
[360] 110K
[3DS] 135K
[PS3] 88K
[PSV] 20k
[WIU] 32K

Is there any reason as to why the Vita rose from May to June? That has me confused.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Post-Animal Crossing hype, I expect a sharp regression MOM for 3DS down to more reasonable levels, but still over the norm.

3DS - 152,000 (15% YOY)

I presume continued apathy towards the Xbox 360 E redesign due to fervent next-generation hype and XBONE news.
As such, I predict MOM below the launch month but still relatively sustained.

360 - 105,000 (-48% YOY)

Likewise, with the PS3, I assume statistical noise to alter PS3 momentum slightly higher, but no significant shifts as of yet.

PS3 - 90,000 (-36% YOY)

I expect roughly flat Wii U MOM, adjusted slightly lower post-E3 hype.

WII U - 34,000

And lastly, with the Vita, virtually flat MOM.

Vita - 22,000

All in all, I expect a highly uneventful month.



In proper counting order:

[360] 105K
[3DS] 152K
[PS3] 90K
[PSV] 22K
[WIU] 34K
 
K

kswiston

Member
I don't think there will be much momentum difference from what we saw in June. 3DS will lose some of the bump it received from Animal Crossing, but I think it will be business as usual for the rest.

[360] 115k
[3DS] 145k
[PS3] 85k
[PSV] 20k
[WIU] 30k
 
D

DaBoss

Member
Wouldn't it be more reasonable to expect the 3DS to be closer to the 115K it got in May? I don't think it will go below 115K, but I don't see it being close to 150K, unless there were promotions going on such as sales, bundles, and etc.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
DaBoss said:
Wouldn't it be more reasonable to expect the 3DS to be closer to the 115K it got in May? I don't think it will go below 115K, but I don't see it being close to 150K, unless there were promotions going on such as sales, bundles, and etc.
Click to expand...

Since March, 3DS has performed better than last year, in every month. Last July it sold more than 124k (I'd say a little more).
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Road said:
More like:

Mar: +1%
Apr: -11%
May: 0%
June: +44%



I have 128~132k for July 2012 from Nintendo's graph.
Click to expand...

Iwata stated, referring to the worldwide share graphs for both April and May that, despite other consoles going down due to anticipation for next gen, 3DS sold as much as last year, if not higher. That refers to April's NPD too.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
July's datas will be interesting for 3DS. Three aspects to look at carefully

1)3DS hardware: June has been a good month, but "just" a good month. Given AC and the "AC week hardware sales 4x at least compared to the previous week" claim by Iwata, it didn't sell good enough to say "Ehi, this console has earned a lot of momentum!". I seriously don't believe that sales came back to May levels right after AC released, it would be extremely strange given the kind of title (not frontloaded, long seller). Since Nintendo's June PR also stated how the game is continuing selling at a good pace, I think there's going to be a little momentum in this month too. Nothing too big, though. But it'll be interesting to see how much it is this momentum...if it's seeable at all.
2)Animal Crossing: As said earlier, July should be another good month for the game. In June, it had 4 weeks, so numbers for the month after launch will be interesting, also for possible further impact on 3DS hardware sales.
3)Shin Megami Tensei IV: Romantically, the most interesting event in the month for the platform XD It's a quite hyped release from the JRPG community, it has a great promotion (buy SMTIV and FE, obtain a $30 credit on eShop), but also a premium price ($49.99), which is quite compensated by what's inside the launch edition box, but is hilariously bad on eShop (where all the cool physical gadgets are, simply...absent).
I don't know how much it can be useful, but here you are some comparisons using eShop charts and reviews from Canada (usually, Canadian eShop trends correspond to US eShop ones), as well as eShop reviews from US

Canada, 17 days after release

Etrian Odyssey IV

Recent Releases
  1. Fire Emblem Awakening (928)
  2. 3D Classics: Kid Icarus (535)
  3. Pokemon Dream Radar (857)
  4. Kersploosh! (21)
  5. Sakura Samurai: Art of the Sword (774)
  6. Gunman Clive (198)
  7. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening DX (3098)
  8. Castlevania: Lords of Shadow - Mirror of Fate (76)
  9. Super Mario Bros. (3063)
    [*]Etrian Odyssey IV: Legends of the Titan (67)
  10. Mega Man 2 (49)
  11. Super Mario Bros.: The Lost Levels (84)
  12. 3D Classics: Kirby's Adventure (1225)
  13. Mega Man 3 (0)
  14. Pokedex 3D Pro (371)
  15. Super Mario Land 2: 6 Golden Coins (1330)
  16. The Legend of Zelda (1616)
  17. Cut The Rope (687)
  18. Plants vs. Zombies (1443)
  19. Photo Dojo (1196)
Click to expand...

Project X Zone

Recent Releases

  1. Animal Crossing: New Leaf (1401)
  2. The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages (286)
  3. The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Seasons (330)
  4. Donkey Kong (806) ClubN
  5. Pokémon Dream Radar (1238)
    [*]Project X Zone (139)
  6. Gunman Clive (434)
  7. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening DX (3418)
  8. Super Mario Bros. (3354)
  9. Fire Emblem Awakening (2401)
  10. Mario and Donkey Kong: Minis on the Move (201)
  11. Aura-Aura Climber (105) ClubN
  12. Metroid II - Return of Samus (564)
  13. URBAN TRIAL FREESTYLE (22)
  14. Mighty Switch Force! (665)
  15. Mario Kart 7 (18288)
  16. Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon (2572)
  17. The Legend of Zelda (1769)
  18. Mega Man 6 (17)
  19. Mega Man 2 (149)
Click to expand...

Recent Releases

  1. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening DX (3486) ClubN
  2. Animal Crossing: New Leaf (2049)
  3. Sakura Samurai: Art of the Sword (908) ClubN
  4. The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages (368)
  5. The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Seasons (417)
  6. Pokémon Dream Radar (1310)
    [*]Shin Megami Tensei IV (253)
  7. Super Mario Bros. 2 (28)
  8. Shantae (23)
  9. Super Mario Land (1515) ClubN
  10. ATTACK OF THE FRIDAY MONSTERS! A TOKYO TALE (34)
  11. Donkey Kong (847) ClubN
  12. Fire Emblem Awakening (2713)
  13. Gunman Clive (474)
  14. Super Mario Bros. (3407)
  15. PICROSS e2 (7) NEW
  16. Mario and Donkey Kong: Minis on the Move (244)
  17. The Legend of Zelda (1804)
  18. Rising Board 3D (85) SALE
  19. Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon (2923)
Click to expand...

Also:

After 31 days on the market, on July 27th, Project X Zone had a total of 1954 reviews in US.
After 18 days on the market, Shin Megami Tensei IV has a total of 1689 reviews.
Click to expand...

Mind you, the comparisons are made based on titles that possibly caters to the same audience, for as much reliability as possible (especially for reviews amounts).
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Road said:
More like:

Mar: +1%
Apr: -11%
May: 0%
June: +44%



I have 128~132k for July 2012 from Nintendo's graph.
Click to expand...

Yep, same here. But I would narrow July 2012 3DS sales into the high end of that 128~132k range.

So roughly 130,000-132,000 for July 2012 3DS sales.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Mpl90 said:
Iwata stated, referring to the worldwide share graphs for both April and May that, despite other consoles going down due to anticipation for next gen, 3DS sold as much as last year, if not higher. That refers to April's NPD too.
Click to expand...
Road's numbers are right by my accounting. April was a down Y/Y month.

I have it at 130K for July 2012 as well.
 
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