Not really. The profit made from the Xbox business is tiny for a behemoth like MS. Not too mention for years the 360 was unprofitable. They were in this to protect Windows. Now that threat looks insignificant compared to tablets/phones.
I don't see MS fighting as hard this gen as they did with the 360. There is a new CEO who has much bigger priorities and other places they need to invest.
Personally I think the whole premise of "owning the living room" via the TV is totally dead. You don't need a large black box anymore to deliver content. People want to view their entertainment on all of their devices--mobile, tablets, and TV. The Xbox brand does not translate to these other devices so it's pointless.
Considering MS doesn't have much in the way of 1st party titles and if PS4 is the dominant console I think it's going to be hard to convince developers to go with their weaker (in both a market and technical sense) system without having to subsidize their development costs.
Again, they could I just don't think they will be able to. Sony was able to do it with PS3 because console exclusives were better than those on 360, and because of the total dominance that was PS2. MS doesn't have that type of leverage.
How did sony sell PS2"s, since that was far weaker comparatively then its competition. Specs are the least important part, they need great exclusive experiences, price parity, and to sell people on all the extra features that the XB1 has. No idea if they will be able to do all that, but getting them priced the same would help a lot.
When PS2 came out it had no competition and was still riding the good-will of PS1.
In this situation, not only is XBONE speced weaker than PS4 but it also is starting with a deficit (not to mention that MS squandered the good-will they developed with 360). It's not the same scenario.
How much safer can you play it with the last Halo? Let's face it, Halo is not what it used to be and I was a HUGE Halo fan. I don't want to be playing the same franchise for 6+ games. It just gets stale no matter what you do to it. I don't want more Gears either. It was the perfect game for its time and I was a huge fan as well but I want new ips.
Middle tier 3rd parties will, Japanese devs already are (Capcom, Tecmo), indies probably will as long as MS remains indie-unfriendly. I definitely think we'll see the return of the (unpaid-for) 3rd party exclusive on PS4 this gen.
Oh this is another point, MS is also 'losing' both the range of network services on offer and the value proposition for them, another thing which will make Xbone less attractive in the longer term unless they can catch up.
Again, unless you think that the Xbone is going to massively outsell the 360, which is a totally absurd suggestion, this is just very front-loaded sales that will have to dip below 360's sales at some point (I'm guessing pretty soon).
I don't think they are happy with second place, but there really isn't anything they can do about it without bleeding money. I just don't think MS cares enough about the future of Xbox to do that.
People are really jumping to conclusions prematurely. The systems are barely out. Hell I can´t even get either of the systems if I wanted to right now. The PS4 is sold out everywhere and the Xbox One hasn´t even been released here yet.
Let Sony first sort out their stock problems and let Microsoft get their shit together and release in their so called "second tier countries", then hold out at least 1 year before you start jumping to conclusions. Exclusive games matter. And Microsoft potentially dropping that expensive paper weight of a Kinect and dropping the price $ 100 could create a huge upset.
The only thing that's for sure this gen is that the Wii U is dead in the water. The rest still can go either way.
They've been losing to iPad for ages. Not their first time following somebody else. I think Xbox will be fine as it still sold like 3 million so far. That's not nothing. There's clearly money to be made otherwise it wouldn't be at 3 million.
Perhaps they are happy turning a profit? To the gamers who like to pretend this whole thing is some sort of soap opera it's fun to say who's in the lead and winning, but to MS it's probably about making money more so then winning a console race. I'm sure they would love being in #1. But doubt they are losing sleep over it considering they are outselling where the 360 was at this point already and with a system that probably costs them less to produce then the 360 did when it was introduced.
Considering MS doesn't have much in the way of 1st party titles and if PS4 is the dominant console I think it's going to be hard to convince developers to go with their weaker (in both a market and technical sense) system without having to subsidize their development costs.
Again, they could I just don't think they will be able to. Sony was able to do it with PS3 because console exclusives were better than those on 360, and because of the total dominance that was PS2. MS doesn't have that type of leverage.
To be honest, if MS does not have the next 2 years planned out for what they want to release from 1st parties, then god help them. This is not a Wii-U situation here. 3rd Parties are not going to just drop the Xbox One unless it utterly fails to sell. A few months from launch, both consoles are doing really well, especially for an industry that many people touted as in the dying stages.
Windows Phone launched in 2009, and was practically in the shitter for 4 years until it started growing significantly in 2013. Bing lost billions upon billions, and they stuck with it. I find it hard to believe they will outright bail.
Kinectless SKU, Halo 5 bundle, buy some more exclusives, successful advertising campaign (which they tend to be good at), maybe drop the price a bit (they could easily drop to $349 without the Kinect if it really adds like $120 to the price) and they'll do fine. Probably won't 'win' per se, but they can make a healthy profit nonetheless.
Who knows, maybe they'll even soak up a small portion of the casual gamers who have left Nintendo. Perhaps.
And as long as they aren't losing lots of money on each box, which given the production cost is unlikely (as opposed to the original Xbox for example), they probably only need to sell 30m+ units to make the business (ie earning money from each game on the platform) worthwhile, and I think they can manage that over 4 or 5 years at the very least.
Windows Phone will be supported indefinitely because it is tied to the future of Windows. It is of the utmost importance for MS. That is why they are willing to spend billions and buy out the hardware division of Nokia, buy companies like Nortel for patents, etc.
Bing is a strategic maneuver to combat Google. Just like the Xbox originally was a strategic maneuver to protect Windows. Bing is the only way they can really combat Google where it hurts. Google likewise is going after MS with GDocs and Chromebooks.
Xbox is nowhere near as important to MS as Bing or WP. If they aren't losing money Xbox division will stick around. I don't see MS willing to lose money though like they were in the past.
They will probably relent to being second, try to be profitable and make next-gen start early.
I think it's an interesting question to tackle. Certainly, it's way too early to be calling the race. We've seen some crazy things over the years in the console space, and if one company is capable of eating losses and splashing out cash in this business, it's Microsoft. They certainly have the means of getting back in this race. But I think it's important to remember what exactly it is Microsoft is after with the Xbox.
Microsoft isn't Amazon (or Sony, for that matter.). They're not a company content with high-investment, low-margin businesses. The only reason they got into the gaming sphere in the first place was because the saw massive upside in doing so, much more massive than selling 100 million units and taking a %30 cut off all games published on it. Just like Sony thought the Playstation was their ticket to the living room, Microsoft thought Xbox was theirs.
They were both wrong. Consoles aren't the way into the living room. Whether it be through Smart TVs or Rokus, Laptops or Mobiles, it's more than clear that entertainment is moving more and more towards the internet and away from a dedicated device. The device is unimportant - all that matters is the content. And with Netflix, Amazon Instant Video, and any other solutions that will certainly continue to pop up (including an all-but-inevitable Microsoft service), all you need is a $100 set top box. What non-gamer will spend $500 on an Xbox One if they can spend $100 on an Apple TV and do all they want? They don't want to play Call of Duty. They could care less for Titanfall.
We haven't even seen what Apple is planning to do in the TV space - will their next Apple TV finally be the one that ignites the market like the iPad and iPhone did? Will they have finally cracked the code Microsoft has been trying to crack since 2000? I have no clue. But in 5 years, we might have that answer. And while that answer might be "Apple didn't", it may well be "Google did". It's very possible that within the next 5 years we'll have that box from someone (and the countless ripoffs). And I think it's quite clear that box will cost between $100 and $200, not $400 to $500.
This isn't to say MS is out of that race; I continue to think a $200 box with Kinect and all of the features of the XB1 except for the games is a very compelling option for consumers, and I would go as far to say it would sell better than the Apple TV and Roku in their current incarnations despite costing $100 more. That's beside the point I'm trying to make, though.
So, if Microsoft realizes that the Xbox will never be the living room trojan horse they envisioned it as, and they also reach the end of this generation as a distant second to Sony... will they remain in the game? Will they accept another huge investment to wage battle over a market that they have no assurance of winning, and whose spoils are a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of their business ventures? The huge upside they saw back in 2000 (and the upside they continue to see in Bing, a project also much lambasted by investors and fans alike) isn't there if the Xbox's ceiling is as a games console only going forward. They can still (and should) go after the living room with a $200 set top box, free of the Billions of dollars in R&D that consoles require. Why would they stick with a (by then) 19-year-old plan that never panned out?
Now, all of this may change. The Comcast-Time Warner merger could very well curb internet innovation and push us back away from Netflix and other streaming services. VR could finally make gaming explode with the masses, turning it into the dominant entertainment medium I believe it has the potential of becoming. Maybe Apple will release their revamped Apple TV at $500, justifying the XB1's price in the mind of the consumer. All of these things are possibilities, however unlikely, and they would all change the landscape of the market. Five years is a very long time, and it might very well be that we'll find ourselves taking about the latest and greatest VR experience selling 10 million copies on 'opening day', or some other absurd concept we can only fathom right now. That would certainly make gaming a market worth fighting for.
But if things remain the way they are now, with gaming being a niche market? With all of the people that had real passion for games gone from Xbox, a distant second to PS4, and only the suits at MS driving the ship? Yeah, in that hypothetical scenario, I have no problem seeing them dropping it. As a matter of fact, if that's how things end up playing out, i'll be surprised if they don't.
I own a PS4 but Jesus give them a chance. The whole game changes again once MS drop Kinect and sell the console for $399/£350.
The mass market doesn't care at all about framerates or resolutions, it's all about the games at the end of the day and I expect MS to have tied up a few more third party exclusives in the vein of Dead Rising, Ryse and Titanfall.
The situation has been written on the wall for them since E3 last year.
They knew they were going to struggle and lose the battle initially, probably they hoped that brand and reputation from the 360 gen, would help them in staying ahead of PS4 at least in the US notwithstanding the higher price and inferior hardware.
That didn't happen and don't expect miracles with TitanFall, that game can only help to sustain sales during the spring period (instead of having sub-100k months), but I'm sure that they will find a way to introduce a 399$ SKU probably in late summer or around E3 time at the earliest.
As a consumer I'd prefer to see Kinect go, but that leak/rumor about the digital only SKU with no BR drive has credibility, it is more in line with their vision of a controlled digital future whereas dropping Kinect which costed them a lot of investements and is considered to be a fundamental part of the UI in their vision, is not an easy decision for them.
Perhaps they are happy turning a profit? To the gamers who like to pretend this whole thing is some sort of soap opera it's fun to say who's in the lead and winning, but to MS it's probably about making money more so then winning a console race. I'm sure they would love being in #1. But doubt they are losing sleep over it considering they are outselling where the 360 was at this point already and with a system that probably costs them less to produce then the 360 did when it was introduced.
Again, unless you think that the Xbone is going to massively outsell the 360, which is a totally absurd suggestion, this is just very front-loaded sales that will have to dip below 360's sales at some point (I'm guessing pretty soon).
Even with games like titanfall and halo 2A and 5 on the way? Plus a potential kinectless sku? Sony is having to eat losses from the vita fail while the 3ds is trying to offset poor wii u sales. I don't think the Xbox one is in nearly as poor shape as a lot of eager beaver Sony fans are joyfully claiming, albeit foolishly, in almost every new, daily thread on gaf, it seems.
I believe there are four points on which Microsoft is evaluating Xbox success:
Retaining core Xbox Live memberships (they get their friends on board, buy $60 games day one, and buy DLC)
Attracting new casual console users and Live memberships
Getting all users to buy entertainment (video, music, games) digitally
Increasing Xbox digital sales on Windows PC, mobile, and tablet devices
They'll react more desperately if they are losing a lot of core Xbox 360 users (most valuable wallets) to Sony, if casuals (people who want multi-media and game capabilities) prefer Sony (or Amazon), or when Sony pulls out so far ahead they stand a high chance of losing developers (like Wii U). For MS, I think it has more to do with the community and people who buy in the marketplace than sheer number in install base. There is probably more money in it for MS off of live subscriptions and digital game sales plus other marketplace transactions, which is why I think the online community has been so important to MS (and why they prefer multiplayer games). They'll make even more when they figure out renting and allowing buyers to sell (which will probably be credited for use within the ecosystem).
It's tough to read the market right now because Sony was always going to get a number of return users that Microsoft never had a chance of converting (and vice versa). By summer it should be more apparent if the valuable members of the 360 user base (those that keep memberships, buy DLC, etc.) is shrinking and the One user base is not growing proportionately (i.e. losing users to Sony).
Until that time, MS should keep up with exclusives, make some really compelling use cases for multi-media, and give the Xbox One more value out of the box (e.g., bundles, Games with Gold, regular digital discounts, F2P, etc.).
How did sony sell PS2"s, since that was far weaker comparatively then its competition. Specs are the least important part, they need great exclusive experiences, price parity, and to sell people on all the extra features that the XB1 has. No idea if they will be able to do all that, but getting them priced the same would help a lot.
I was thinking about that and I think the internet and the world was just a very different place. Was the difference constantly pushed in people's faces? Were there easily accessible articles to notify people of the differences? Were there users constantly bringing it up?
Sony hit them with an early hay-maker and Microsoft has been staggering pretty much ever since. Honestly, I could really see this being the last Xbox system. Original Xbox got crushed by PS2, despite a year head-start and huge price advantage PS3 still caught and passed Xbox 360 worldwide in the long run, and PS4 is off to an early lead on Xbox One and Xbox One has massive image issues.
Microsoft always wanted the Xbox to be a gateway into the living room, and if they don't become a market leader I could see them bowing out and taking the cash used to make Xboxes elsewhere.
They already are reacting. I'm fairly convinced every journalist that would accept a money hat has taken one for titanfall. Here is the basics of the contract:
1) always praise it
2) bonus money for each time you post the word titanfall on your personal blog or feed
3) bonus money for using the term "mind blowing"
Surely putting all their strategy in money hatting will work out in the end. Just look at 360.
The 8GB GDDR5 in the PS4 is what changed everything between PS4 and Xbox One.
Nothing else, I agree the DRM wasn't good and they changed that but when the multi-plats look better on a console that's cheaper then you're fucked from the off.
The exclusives are just the cherry on top.
They already are reacting. I'm fairly convinced every journalist that would accept a money hat has taken one for titanfall. Here is the basics of the contract:
1) always praise it
2) bonus money for each time you post the word titanfall on your personal blog or feed
3) bonus money for using the term "mind blowing"
Surely putting all their strategy in money hatting will work out in the end. Just look at 360.
This too. If you look at whats announced (I'm not going to list it) theres a decent spread for 2014 and 2015 without the inevitable games that they haven't already announced.
If you look into the rumours recently too, you can expand that even more
Someone was going to lead. Microsoft certainly aren't happy with the PS4 having a very healthy lead but they needed to learn what consumers were interested in just as Sony needed to learn with the PS3. The Xbox is not theoretically a better multimedia machine. It is. Early adopters aren't as interested in that stuff but in the long run it will be a good move and anyone who watches tv, streams, etc have a lot of great content and a very convenient method of controlling the entertainment. One thing I hope Microsoft get from this is that that the price to performance ratio is very important especially to early adopters. They should have had pricing parity or a more powerful system. The Xbox one is strong on many points. It has what is looking to be an excellent lineup for 2014. It has a great base for multimedia consumption and will only get better. The ps4 is great but I doubt I will use it nearly as much in 2014 unless uncharted has some serious repayable qualities this time around or more games I'm interested in get announced. This Gen is so far from over its ridiculous to make claims that one or the other will fail. I got both because there is just too many exclusives on each system for me to avoid them.
Looking at Microsoft's launch strategy I don't think "winning" was part of it. They certainly didn't price the machine or launch in enough territories to have any realistic shot of being ahead currently.
They don't need to be the best selling console to make money. The vita makes money and has the install base of 2 ouyas duct taped together. I will concede that each month that Microsoft loses in the US is damaging PR, but that won't sink them. Microsoft as an entitiy makes its money off of software and services, not hardware. I think they are approaching the Xbox One in the same way. They will make their money with XBLG, fitness stuff, subscription based TV stuff, their own television content, etc. And halo, of course. It's a very different route to financial success than the PS4 which is "we need to sell a fuckload of games."
All of the things you mentioned though aren't what people consider to be "doing well in the console war". Many simply look at sales rank and nothing more.
Xbox is an attempt at the living room and a showcase of Microsoft services, the latter particularly is important to Microsoft as Xbox is a wide reaching consumer device that is a successful outsider and allowed to think outside the box sometimes.
Mobile and streaming has been taking over and there is little need for a hulking black box that does these simple things which aren't gaming so as Windows Phone continues to make gains and Surface might become a thing I think Xbox will be scaled back from big gaming to a much smaller box that excels at streaming and content services while showcasing the best Microsoft has to offer like Skype, SkyDrive, Windows apps etc.
Basically the ultimate companion to any TV, Phone, PC, Tablet. All your media anywhere. Limited game ability.
The funny thing is, what Microsoft had going for it *was* games. All the Windows stuff is pretty much dead to the world. For every service Microsoft offers there is a tremendously better option available elsewhere. Skype may be the only one worth arguing but my opinion is video conferencing apps are dime-a-dozen these days.
By trying to bolster their waining Windows and service offerings they in turn damaged the one thing they had going for them in gamings. Fucking idiots.
Rockefellers. Skull and Bones. Microsoft. Al Qaeda. A Cabal of Bankers. The melting point of steel. What do these things have in common? Wake up sheeple, the landfill wasn't even REAL!
The funny thing is, what Microsoft had going for it *was* games. All the Windows stuff is pretty much dead to the world. For every service Microsoft offers there is a tremendously better option available elsewhere. Skype may be the only one worth arguing but my opinion is video conferencing apps are dime-a-dozen these days.
By trying to bolster their waining Windows and service offerings they in turn damaged the one thing they had going for them in gamings. Fucking idiots.
I could totally see Microsoft bowing out of the console race. They clearly want the Xbox brand to be more of an overall media center more so than just a gaming platform. They're losing the living room entertainment hub to cheap bluray players and stuff like Roku, and they're losing the gaming platform race to Sony. Microsoft strikes me as the type who will bow out if they aren't the best, see Games for Windows Live and Zune.
In a multiplatform centric gaming universe, does universal Kinect adoption on one platform even matter. I mean, from the perspective of game makers Kinect adoption rate is only 30-40% of their target market as it is. Because of this low adoption rate, EA-Activision-Ubi could care less about Kinect and will never use it to any significant level, or risk alienating the +60% that don't have it. (Sony was very smart not packing in a similar tech).
So the question remains, what is MS expecting to happen with Kinect. Their own studios can't make it a fad. 3rd parties will never use it because they write for the lowest common denominator of the hardware sum.I don't understand what MS loses by removing it, from a gamers perspective. It is past its expiration date to take off as a fad.
The whole thing is a classic example of 'Group Think'.
I think they'll stay the course they've set out at least through the launch of Titanfall and perhaps change strategy depending on how it performs. Doubt will see any big announcements on new SKUs or change in direction until E3, though.
