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[mechphree]

where will they catch up thought? 360ps3 are now at almost parity because 360 almost doubled ps3 in US without us dominance like 360 had xbox one isn't going to come close to ps4. and so far ps4 is gaining a bigger lead in the us each month.

It took years for ps3 to catch up with its super over priced console and ultra arrogant sony. Maybe this lead Sony has will force Microsoft to humble them selves and work better with their next console for the gamers.

 

[mechphree]

We are 5 months or so into this generation? How are people making predictions five years let alone 1 year from now about which console will destroy each other? I love Sony and I despised Microsoft for its DRM but I feel it will eventually take off.

 

[delta25]

I'm not really sure about that. I don't actually think the PS4 is a particularly compelling value on its own either, which is why I'm also bearish on its future. The hardware specs are mediocre and its library is imo one of the weakest at this point in a console's life. The big thing the PS4 has going for it is Microsoft. For somebody who just wants to go next gen because that's what you do then the PS4 is basically a no-brainer - better hardware, lower price, no immediate history of attempting to screw consumers with invasive DRM. But all those boons are relative. It's not like I'm saying "Amazing hardware." "Great price for the hardware." "A strong pro-player history." I think as we segue from early adopters who are adopting technology for the sake of adpoting technology as opposed to those looking for enticing propositions - the PS4 is going to start to have an uphill struggle as well.

well 7,000,000 people seem to think otherwise, but I do agree the hardware may not be on par with the PC' best but when 399 dollars worth of "mediocre" hardware is producing these kinds of visuals...I think the PS4 is going to do just fine and dandy.

edit: sorry for the pic derail

 

[Dire]

So there are ~11M or so hardcore early adopters who just wanted a tech upgrade? Really? You don't think any casuals or softcore bought into next-gen yet?

What percent of console gamers would you classify as enthusiasts or tech adopters?

Now let's consider the market size. PS2 era was 150million+ on PS2 alone. Last gen had 100million+ Wii, 80million+ 360, 80million+ PS3 but there was a ton of overlap. It's probably safe to say the market is at least in the ballpark of 150million. Multiply that percent you gave above by 150million. Long story short is that if you said 7% or more then 11M would indeed allow for nothing but enthusiasts/adopters.

Not that I think that's the case. Obviously the vast majority of sales this gen were largely thanks to the holidays which is going to be an extremely wide array of user types. There's still a decent amount of consoles to go before I imagine we reach saturation of the enthusiast/adopter market. However, I do think we're already getting there in the US. I suppose April's numbers will prove or disprove that notion!

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Oh dire that statement will be refrenced in the future I am sure. Both consoles are having record breaking launches. This gen could be a good one.

 

[Glorified G]

We are 5 months or so into this generation? How are people making predictions five years let alone 1 year from now about which console will destroy each other? I love Sony and I despised Microsoft for its DRM but I feel it will eventually take off.

Why don't you take the time to read the responses to your posts? You're making a 1:1 comparison to Sony's situation seven years ago and it doesn't fit. Sony had a worldwide market to fall back on to make up the deficit, MS doesn't. The brand awareness of both companies are not the same.

 

[SwiftDeath]

What percent of console gamers would you classify as enthusiasts or tech adopters?

Now let's consider the market size. PS2 era was 150million+ on PS2 alone. Last gen had 100million+ Wii, 80million+ 360, 80million+ PS3 but there was a ton of overlap. It's probably safe to say the market is at least in the ballpark of 150million. Multiply that percent you gave above by 150million. Long story short is that if you said 7% or more then 11M would indeed allow for nothing but enthusiasts/adopters.

Not that I think that's the case. Obviously the vast majority of sales this gen were largely thanks to the holidays which is going to be an extremely wide array of user types. There's still a decent amount of consoles to go before I imagine we reach saturation of the enthusiast/adopter market. However, I do think we're already getting there in the US. I suppose April's numbers will prove or disprove that notion!

I would probably have said that enthusiasts who are solely buying new consoles for because "new tech" and nothing else would be 5% or so certainly 10% or less

I do forsee a drop in April of both PS4 and XB1 numbers. XB1 moreso most likely and I also suspect that both will cross streams with Wii sales trajectory this year [has XB1 already done so?]. PS4 likely will in summer in my mind.

Still I think after 5 months on the market and 11M sold we are in fact already into a mix of enthusiasts and more causal buyers. Not the bread and butter yet perhaps but still a mix

 

[Biker19]

People painting Xbox sales as a disaster just crack me up. Both consoles are doing fine, just that the PS4 is doing better. The Xbox, contrary to the dreams of many, isn't going anywhere.

You sure about that? America's the only region that's keeping Xbox One afloat. Even then, they're still trailing behind PS4.

 

[Dire]

It also means that we're unlikely to get hints of European sales from now on in IR briefings.
That seems an exaggeration. If they can maintain this level of disparity with the PS4 in the US, which comprises something like 40+% or so of the global market, that essentially amounts to 20% of the global market. 40% of the UK market amounts to another 4% or so. And even being outsold 4:1 in the remaining markets amounts to another 10% or so.

So ballparking it, and a lot can change obviously, that would mean something like 25-30% of the global market to Sony's 70-75%. Handily outsold obviously, but not really miniscule.

(for the purposes of simplicity I have ignored the Wii U.)
I've seen it written on here that Sony are something of a chameleon in this regard. For all their foibles, the company is very good at blending at not being a Japanese company, or a US company or a European company.

Why do you assume the current ratio in the US/UK/etc maintains static. I think one needs look no further than this month. March was basically XBone month, yet somehow it lost by a fairly wide margin in spite of Titanfall and extremely aggressive price cutting/bundles from retailers. Every indicator I can possibly think of would seem to scream that the gap is going to continue to grow.

This also is also completely ignoring secondary effects like success breeding success.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

371k, exactly.

Really? I mean, they probably gotta be a few dozen over that, surely.

NPD being completely unreliable and all. Thank you Mr.Dent; you've shown me the light.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Tropical freeze sales can't be that bad...right

84K this month and about 120K last month? Not terrible all things considered imo. That puts it at about 200K in the US so far.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Why do you assume the current ratio in the US/UK/etc maintains static. I think one needs look no further than this month. March was basically XBone month, yet somehow it lost by a fairly wide margin in spite of Titanfall and extremely aggressive price cutting/bundles from retailers. Every indicator I can possibly think of would seem to scream that the gap is going to continue to grow.

This also is also completely ignoring secondary effects like success breeding success.

I'm aware of the potential network effects. I've brought them up in discussion.

And my assumption is for the sake of argument, as I said, a lot can change. I still think "miniscule" is an exaggeration. It isn't the Wii U.

The gap grows. How big does it grow. Are you expecting the system to not even pass 30M units? Not even 20M? Is it going to end up friends with the Wii U in 10M land?

 

[theprodigy]

It also means that we're unlikely to get hints of European sales from now on in IR briefings.

That didn't stop them from doing it last year when it was equally bad, why now?
(well ok DS/Wii fell even further, but still)

 

[SenjutsuSage]

I beg to differ. 3.9M of the announced 5M shipped, came into retail in the first month. They then proceeded to ship 1.1M over the span of 3 and a half months. Take out the launch month+1 week, and I don't see how anyone can say they're doing good. As of YTD, Microsoft is shipping to retail in one quarter what the PS4 sells to consumers in about a month. In the same time frame in 2006, Microsoft shipped 1.7M x360 consoles. When did the X360 stop being supply constrained? Cause I think at that particular juncture, YTD versus the X1 at the same time frame will start to become pretty interesting.

Lost in stuff like this is the fact that the Xbox One, regardless of limited promotions and bundle deals for Titanfall, is still $100 more expensive than the PS4, and that perception continues to be the widely held view of the price difference between the two systems. This continues to be the view because it's still the reality. Some nice, but limited bundle deals didn't all of a sudden erase that. The Xbox One is a system that's also available in far less than half of the regions that the PS4 is in. One site labeled the breakdown as being 13 countries and regions for Xbox One to 72 for the PS4. That's significant, no matter the attempts to downplay it. Is the Xbox One already available in regions where it's likely to get the lion's share of its sales? Yes, but nobody can say with a straight face the system would sell a cumulatively insignificant zero units if it were available in more regions. They may be smaller markets for the system, but they add up and they count towards the overall total just the same as they do currently for the PS4, even with supply constraints.

The 360's LTD as of November 2006 in the USA when Gears of War launched, was 3.6 Million. The Xbox One already, at march, has achieved about 70% of that LTD figure. So one has to try pretty hard to somehow claim these numbers are bad for the Xbox One, especially when physical software is selling so well for the system. The Xbox One isn't actually being judged by what sales numbers are considered to be healthy, it's being judged based on the fact that it's not beating the PS4, and not much more. January NPD was the only remotely alarming month for the Xbox One's sales, and then there was a huge rebound in February. Some are talking like the Xbox One is selling Wii-U and Vita numbers.

 

[Lemondish]

I'm not really sure about that. I don't actually think the PS4 is a particularly compelling value on its own either, which is why I'm also bearish on its future. The hardware specs are mediocre and its library is imo one of the weakest at this point in a console's life. The big thing the PS4 has going for it is Microsoft. For somebody who just wants to go next gen because that's what you do then the PS4 is basically a no-brainer - better hardware, lower price, no immediate history of attempting to screw consumers with invasive DRM. But all those boons are relative. It's not like I'm saying "Amazing hardware." "Great price for the hardware." "A strong pro-player history." I think as we segue from early adopters who are adopting technology for the sake of adpoting technology as opposed to those looking for enticing propositions - the PS4 is going to start to have an uphill struggle as well.

54 titles released to date with the biggest franchisees being there day one. I want to know that other consoles could boast that in 5 months.

 

[joecanada]

MS still sold 300k this month. Not even the same ball park. Ninty needs something to revitalize their business. The holidays is proof enough the u is a failure.

Yes I think it's pretty solid in data now that most consoles don't just poof! Start selling like mad... Nintendo would have to start rolling out great games regularly with a solid price drop to even compete... Mariokart won't save WiiU it just doesn't have enough user base, it may help though

 

[funkystudent]

More random questions!


Whats to total lifetime sales of the XB1 in the US and can we use that to extrapolate its sales in the rest of the world? Do we have any numbers from the EU? Even slightly older numbers from a Nintendo earnings call are something where we normally get that stuff

 

[pieatorium]

54 titles released to date with the biggest franchisees being there day one. I want to know that other consoles could boast that in 5 months.

I count 55 for WiiU in the same time, it had CoD, Ass Creed, Mario, Skylanders, Fifa on day 1

=}

 

[Mory Dunz]

Why in the world does that graph not include the 360?

Ok, that aside -the one thing that was really different about this generation as opposed to any other is that there was an enormous amount of supply available from day 1. This was completely unprecedented. In terms of gross unit availability we're months ahead of where we've been in any other generation.

However the slowdown in demand has already happened. Compare the slope of the lines to the other consoles. The uptick in the slope of the PS2 was not demand increasing, it was supply increasing. Next month will likely be the worst month for both consoles by a pretty wide margin. The XBone will likely fall under the other consoles within a few months - about the same boost it got from the initial supply. The PS4 will probably take about a year. It will start to fall under but they'll get a big boost around September since it's an easy go-to gift and they'll undoubtedly have some very enticing packages available since the value of their hardware is rapidly declining.

The xbox one will probably taper off until the fall but the ps4 line should stay pretty constant until demand is fully met.

Thanks.
Graph isn't mine btw, not sure why it doens't include the 360

 

[QuikNez]

54 titles released to date with the biggest franchisees being there day one. I want to know that other consoles could boast that in 5 months.

Quantity =/= Quality

As a PS4 owner, I too think it's library is mediocre at best. I don't understand any argument otherwise.

 

[Trey]

Take note gaming industry, the PS4 is what happens when you actually listen to both the consumers and the developers/publishers and find that perfect balance.

And your competitor completely shits the bed at the same time.

 

[3rdamention]

Lost in stuff like this is the fact that the Xbox One, regardless of limited promotions and bundle deals for Titanfall, is still $100 more expensive than the PS4, and that perception continues to be the widely held view of the price difference between the two systems. This continues to be the view because it's still the reality. Some nice, but limited bundle deals didn't all of a sudden erase that. The Xbox One is a system that's also available in far less than half of the regions that the PS4 is in. One site labeled the breakdown as being 13 countries and regions for Xbox One to 72 for the PS4. That's significant, no matter the attempts to downplay it. Is the Xbox One already available in regions where it's likely to get the lion's share of its sales? Yes, but nobody can say with a straight face the system would sell a cumulatively insignificant zero units if it were available in more regions. They may be smaller markets for the system, but they add up and they count towards the overall total just the same as they do currently for the PS4, even with supply constraints.

The 360's LTD as of November 2006 in the USA when Gears of War launched, was 3.6 Million. The Xbox One already, at march, has achieved about 70% of that LTD figure. So one has to try pretty hard to somehow claim these numbers are bad for the Xbox One, especially when physical software is selling so well for the system. The Xbox One isn't actually being judged by what sales numbers are considered to be healthy, it's being judged based on the fact that it's not beating the PS4, and not much more. January NPD was the only remotely alarming month for the Xbox One's sales, and then there was a huge rebound in February. Some are talking like the Xbox One is selling Wii-U and Vita numbers.

Well, Microsoft only have themselves to blame for not launching in more countries. It is pretty obvious they wanted the units to sell in their strongest territories, so they simply didn't ship to others. That strategy basically worked, but you cannot really use it as an excuse as to why there is a large discrepancy in the numbers, when it could just as easily be the reason it has sold as many as it has in the US.

The fact Microsoft has only launched in a few countries helped drive the numbers up in their strongest territories since they had more units there. If it had already launched in more countries, lets say around 74 like you said Sony did, that would probably take units away from the US where the system is selling best. Whether it would have sold well in some of these other countries at this point is a mystery. So while you are arguing that it would/could have sold more units had they launched in more countries, it could have just as easily sold less units because it would have had less units to sell in its strongest selling countries, especially if all these other countries didn't show interest in the console.

However, since Microsoft has only been reporting "shipped" numbers recently, instead of "sold through" numbers, it could conversely be argued that it didn't matter what other countries they tried to launch in, as long as they could ship units there, it would keep their "shipped" numbers up.

Finally, there are doom and gloom posters here, but I don't see anyone talking like the Xbox One sales are similar to sales of the WiiU or the Vita. I think you may be stretching the narrative a bit there.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I'm not really sure about that. I don't actually think the PS4 is a particularly compelling value on its own either, which is why I'm also bearish on its future. The hardware specs are mediocre and its library is imo one of the weakest at this point in a console's life. The big thing the PS4 has going for it is Microsoft. For somebody who just wants to go next gen because that's what you do then the PS4 is basically a no-brainer - better hardware, lower price, no immediate history of attempting to screw consumers with invasive DRM. But all those boons are relative. It's not like I'm saying "Amazing hardware." "Great price for the hardware." "A strong pro-player history." I think as we segue from early adopters who are adopting technology for the sake of adpoting technology as opposed to those looking for enticing propositions - the PS4 is going to start to have an uphill struggle as well.

Mediocre hardware specs? One of the weakest lineups in history? Not a compelling value?

In what world is this the case? At 7 million, we're way past the tech enthusiast crowd. The PS4 is a tremendous value and laser focused on providing that value specifically to gaming.

 

[Tommy DJ]

Lost in stuff like this is the fact that the Xbox One, regardless of limited promotions and bundle deals for Titanfall, is still $100 more expensive than the PS4, and that perception continues to be the widely held view of the price difference between the two systems. This continues to be the view because it's still the reality. Some nice, but limited bundle deals didn't all of a sudden erase that. The Xbox One is a system that's also available in far less than half of the regions that the PS4 is in. One site labeled the breakdown as being 13 countries and regions for Xbox One to 72 for the PS4. That's significant, no matter the attempts to downplay it. Is the Xbox One already available in regions where it's likely to get the lion's share of its sales? Yes, but nobody can say with a straight face the system would sell a cumulatively insignificant zero units if it were available in more regions. They may be smaller markets for the system, but they add up and they count towards the overall total just the same as they do currently for the PS4, even with supply constraints.

There's a reason why people don't really give a shit about Sony launching in a billion countries. That sort of argument assumes the purchasing habits of consumers are homogeneous and not influenced by cultural and economic factors. Most of those countries buy an insignificant number of consoles. I honestly don't think a South Korean kid would buy a Playstation 4 or Xbox One because he's too busy playing whatever MMO or MOBA at his local PC bang.

Microsoft mass launching in countries like Indonesia or the Philippines won't help them bridge the world-wide sales gap between the PS4 and Xbox One. Yes you are right that they will purchase more than zero units but come on let's be serious here: that amount is not very relevant. If EA's Q4 FY2013 results are anything to go buy, North America and Europe made ~$1,000 million revenue in total while Asia made $60 million. Markets in Asia appear to be more interested in League of Legends to be honest; Eastern Europeans seem to have an affinity for PC gaming.

You are also ignoring the fact that Sony practically paper launched in a lot of countries. I think the UAE launched with three consoles or something outrageous. So yes, I can say with a straight face that the system would sell a cumulatively insignificant number of units if it were available in more regions. If Sony launched in only 13 countries like the Xbox One, the world-wide sale ratios will not change in a large meaningful way since whatever stock would be sold to the consumer immediately in any one of these 13 countries. Let's get rid of the zero because its such a stupid limiter that prevents you from ever being wrong.

 

[RealityPales]

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and MLB 2014 might be big hits on PS4. The thirst is real.

Meanwhile, I can't for the life of me think of when the next XBO exclusive drops...

 

[ClearData]

Why do people think Sony is in for an uphill battle because of a sparse exclusive calendar? If I am not mistaken Naughty Dog, Santa Monica, and Media Molecule have not gone anywhere. This is Sony we are talking about. Triple AAA will be there and we aren't even out of year one. The system also has the most well stocked collection of indie talent I have ever seen outside of PC. If anything, things are going to get easier on the release front.

I am truly looking forward to the deathmatch that is going to be E3 2014 because the knives are going to be out for each party.

 

[dolabla]

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and MLB 2014 might be big hits on PS4. The thirst is real.

Meanwhile, I can't for the life of me think of when the next XBO exclusive drops...

Once Soda Drinker Pro drops on X1, this little Playstation sales party is over.

 

[Tabular]

Quantity =/= Quality

As a PS4 owner, I too think it's library is mediocre at best. I don't understand any argument otherwise.

As a ps4 owner I disagree. And metacritic does as well.

 

[Nightengale]

Once Soda Drinker Pro drops on X1, this little Playstation sales party is over.

Zero copies on NPD, because d-d-d-d-digital.

Why would we care? /s

 

[RealityPales]

Once Soda Drinker Pro drops on X1, this little Playstation sales party is over.

I had no idea that even existed. Until now. These screenshots... I don't even...

 

[Averon]

Why do people think Sony is in for an uphill battle because of a sparse exclusive calendar? If I am not mistaken Naughty Dog, Santa Monica, and Media Molecule have not gone anywhere. This is Sony we are talking about. Triple AAA will be there and we aren't even out of year one. The system also has the most well stocked collection of indie talent I have ever seen outside of PC. If anything, things are going to get easier on the release front.

I am truly looking forward to the deathmatch that is going to be E3 2014 because the knives are going to be out for each party.

I addition to this, the games that will really be pushing PS4s will be multiplats. Exclusives help, no doubt, but the FIFAs, CoDs, and AssCreeds are what will get the vast bulk of people to buy PS4s. And it doesn't hurt that PS4 will likely have the best versions of them on consoles.

 

[Asherdude]

It will do something. It's weaker but not much weaker,that is exageration. People will buy it for their exclusives like any other machine. The original xbox didnt get bought for being a more powerful machine.

Virtually everyone that I've talked to believes that the 360 was the most powerful last gen system. And that's why they bought it. I believe that Digital Foundry's face-off articles kind of helped them form that opinion

 

[dolabla]

I had no idea that even existed. Until now. These screenshots... I don't even...

Just imagine playing on VR. It'd be like a wild acid trip.

 

[orochi91]

lol holy shit

What's the source for this?!

 

[funkystudent]

Just imagine playing on VR. It'd be like a wild acid trip.

The PC version does have Oculus Rift support!


Soda Drinker Pro is leading the charge for best ironically bad game on consoles. Will Sony be able to counter with a dong dong never die reveal at E3?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97sm0Kbk0P4

 

[BigDug13]

What percent of console gamers would you classify as enthusiasts or tech adopters?

Now let's consider the market size. PS2 era was 150million+ on PS2 alone. Last gen had 100million+ Wii, 80million+ 360, 80million+ PS3 but there was a ton of overlap. It's probably safe to say the market is at least in the ballpark of 150million. Multiply that percent you gave above by 150million. Long story short is that if you said 7% or more then 11M would indeed allow for nothing but enthusiasts/adopters.

Not that I think that's the case. Obviously the vast majority of sales this gen were largely thanks to the holidays which is going to be an extremely wide array of user types. There's still a decent amount of consoles to go before I imagine we reach saturation of the enthusiast/adopter market. However, I do think we're already getting there in the US. I suppose April's numbers will prove or disprove that notion!

The only reason the PS4 has not sold twice as many as it has is because it's simply not being built fast enough. We haven't even reached a point yet where a spec of dust is collecting on PS4 boxes in the US yet before they're sold. What is considered a non-enthusiast/adopter exactly? The guy who only buys CoD and Madden? Guess which system that guy is going to buy. It's not going to be PC as PC doesn't even get Madden. Is it going to be the system that has the lead in sales and his friends are more likely to buy? You betcha. Is it going to be the $500 system or the $400 system? What if the $400 is also the most powerful system and is also the system his friends are more likely to buy?

This shit snowballs, so I'm not sure if you're saying the entire industry is crashing or what, because I just don't see it. Maybe it won't reach 150 million in sales between XBO and PS4 within 7 years like this past gen, but it's certainly going to be extremely healthy.

 

[Concept17]

Xbox (November 2001 - March 2002):
1.80 million

Xbox 360 (November 2005 - March 2006)
1.21 million (due to shortages)

Xbox One (November 2013 - March 2014)
2.53 million

Why does a lack of "dominating the USA market" automatically translate into the Xbox ending up with a "miniscule marketshare"?

I understand very well that the Xbox One is in a noticeably inferior retail position to the PS4 in the USA hardware-wise.

But I'm not seeing the absolute necessity for Microsoft to "crush the market" right now. The Xbox One has merits in the USA...maybe not up to Microsoft's initial expectations, but good enough to avoid a disaster like the Wii U or the Vita as they're encouraging others to invest in the Xbox One ecosystem.

That, inherently, is a sigh of relief. I see benefits to Major Nelson's "It's a marathon, not a sprint" beyond its obvious PR intentions.

300k with Halo-like marketing on a "system-seller" only a few months after release, is not great. With that kind of marketing, on a new system, one that came out EIGHT years after their last, they should hope for better performance. This was their strongest market, and they're losing it, and right before the slower summer months. Is it as in bad of position as the Vita or Wii U? Probably not, but like those, it's completely misunderstood by it's consumer base.

 

[Rogue_Ledr]

371k, exactly.

I saw this number posted before, where are people getting it from?

I thought NPD didn't release the PS4 number?

Am I wrong?

 

[HORRORSHØW]

I had no idea that even existed. Until now. These screenshots... I don't even...

system seller

 

[dolabla]

The PC version does have Oculus Rift support!


Soda Drinker Pro is leading the charge for best ironically bad game on consoles. Will Sony be able to counter with a dong dong never die reveal at E3?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97sm0Kbk0P4

Oh my, that's hilarious.

I'd probably seriously download Dong Dong if it came to PS4. It just looks like one of those games so bad, you just have to experience it yourself.

 

[BigDug13]

My friends and I are apparently on the wrong side of history .

So now you and your friends represent "the majority"? And any sequence of events that goes against your choice couldn't possibly happen to the majority of console customers when the cheaper and more powerful system continues to outsell the weaker and more expensive system? I thought this was a sales thread not a "what my friends and I are doing" thread.

 

[nelchaar]

I had no idea that even existed. Until now. These screenshots... I don't even...

1080p, 60fps. Cloud computing.

 

[Amir0x]

Xbox (November 2001 - March 2002):
1.80 million

Xbox 360 (November 2005 - March 2006)
1.21 million (due to shortages)

Xbox One (November 2013 - March 2014)
2.53 million

Why does a lack of "dominating the USA market" automatically translate into the Xbox ending up with a "miniscule marketshare"?

There's a number of reasons why I think the situation this gen is unique in a number of ways, and why looking at historical context may not be appropriate - including for PS4.

I mentioned this in the other topic:

1. For one thing, this was a generational transition coming off one of the longest generations we've ever had for game consoles. Therefore, at least partially as a result, the front loaded sales were almost certainly far larger than we've previously had, or otherwise would have had.

2. Compounding this fact was the proliferation of online pre-ordering and websites, a market that has hugely grown since the launch of PS3 and 360. The amount of online pre-orders for PS3 and 360 was a comical fraction of the amount we had for PS4 and XBO. This also helped early speedy adoption.

3. The third element that helped was advances in console manufacturing. We now have manufacturing of these products down to a science, with an ability to produce units that dwarf what we were capable of even at the start of PS3/360 gen. As a result, there were more systems shipped to this launch than any other launch in history. Naturally, this means that there were more units available for people to actually buy all at once, and so that also contributes to the appearance of being the "fastest selling" anything.

That's why tracking clues to understand where the trajectory might go is very important, because the initial sales blast from this pent up demand and faster manufacturing and all these other elements is partially obscuring the "ground floor" of where these systems will actually end up in the average month-to-month. This was not a typical industry console launch for various reasons. Will XBO be hitting consistently 141k and under like January 2014 now that Titanfall hype is evaporating, or will it be nearer to something like 250k? Will PS4 always maintain a similar proportional lead over Xbox One from month-to-month? What will PS4's bottom out be and average non-holiday month end up being? Where will the trajectories eventually lead us?

The explosive opening launch salvo has certainly allowed the systems to start faster than previous gen, but will it allow the system to STAY faster than previous gens? That I am not sure of at all.

 

[TheOhrenberger.]

You sure about that? America's the only region that's keeping Xbox One afloat. Even then, they're still trailing behind PS4.

just because it's behind doesn't mean it's a disaster or that it's doomed. Xbox One is still selling just fine.

 

[stryke]

I saw this number posted before, where are people getting it from?

I thought NPD didn't release the PS4 number?

Am I wrong?

The last two people I saw mentioning it were Aqua and thuway. I didn't see anyone like cream deny it so...

 

[Biker19]

just because it's behind doesn't mean it's a disaster or that it's doomed. Xbox One is still selling just fine.

Again, only in America. They have basically no chance outside of that region.

 

[Rogue_Ledr]

The last two people I saw mentioning it were Aqua and thuway. I didn't see anyone like cream deny it so...

Yeah, but I am wondering what was the original source for this number?

Is it speculation? A rough calculation? Is it an official number from another source? Just curious.

 

[Aquamarine]

I saw this number posted before, where are people getting it from?

I thought NPD didn't release the PS4 number?

Am I wrong?

NPD released the PS4 number to subscribers. That number is 371K.

Yeah, but I am wondering what was the original source for this number?

Is it speculation? A rough calculation? Is it an official number from another source? Just curious.

It's from NPD.

 

[pieatorium]

Yeah, but I am wondering what was the original source for this number?

Is it speculation? A rough calculation? Is it an official number from another source? Just curious.

its a leak from leakers

 

[Tripon]

The last two people I saw mentioning it were Aqua and thuway. I didn't see anyone like cream deny it so...

Aquamarine has access to NPD numbers. Anything she says about it is accurate.