SenjutsuSage
Banned
I suck at sales predictions, which is why I usually stay out of the prediction threads haha, but I actually think both xbox one and ps4 may sell MORE in April than they did in March. Not sure why, but I just have a feeling.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for March 2014 [Up4: FFX/X-2 HD]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I suck at sales predictions, which is why I usually stay out of the prediction threads haha, but I actually think both xbox one and ps4 may sell MORE in April than they did in March. Not sure why, but I just have a feeling.
Mmmh. I can see that being true for most of mainland Europe (I've heard that Italy and Spain have had stock since before March, but I'd like to see what others can say about that), but US has had stock since a little after the beginning of March.
Again
http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/ps4/
In stock now basically everywhere and, reading the comments to the page, it was in stock for a big amount of March.
While I can still see some places where the console isn't present here and there, the overall situation should see PS4 being readily avilable. More than in January and, certainly, much more than February, where the console suffered giant stock problems.
UK seems to be the other place where PS4 is in stock, but it's more recent: I remember Amazon got stock around...inFamous release, while in USA that happened quite earlier.
Current situation in UK
http://www.stockinformer.co.uk/checker-ps4-playstation-4
It's widely available. IIRC, recently it also started seeing some deals here and there (nothing mindblowing, though...One deals are on completely different levels).
As already said, mainland Europe is where there are still problems (even major ones - see Germany) for getting the console, no doubt about that.
P.S. Looking at recent / less recent Amazon.com charts (and remembering all the comparisons I did in the recent past), and at how the real market went, I'd dare to say it can represent a good view on next gen trends, but there's something to consider: there seems to be a "core / Sony-bias" (sorry for the expression): i.e. core and Sony products doing better on Amazon than what they effectively do actually.
Example: Amazon top 100 for March
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-03/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar?tag=viglink129408-20#1
inFamous higher than Titanfall, MGSV PS4 and FF collection special edition better than One + TF bundle, Yoshi's New Island being way behind MGSV (while, in reality, results have been similar), FF Vita over DKC, and the list goes on and on. It's also the same reason why, back in February, seeing BF in first places made me immediatly think of a FE-size success, not an inFamous-size of success.
It's better to remember that when using Amazon as a "source" of infos: it can be useful, but it needs to be filtered.
Liabe Brave
Member
Well, that'd be pretty unusual, especially since April is only a 4-week NPD period whereas March was 5 weeks. But it has sometimes happened. Well have to see.
The slowdown has already started happening, for both consoles. My guess would be that Xbox One will fall behind Wii in 2 months (possibly 3), and stay there forever. The PS4 will take 5 or maybe 6 months to fall behind, then surge back to parity during the holidays, then fall behind permanently by March of 2015. (Launch-aligned, that's the month Wii began to explode.)
Nightengale
Member
From experience? There's a lot of negative stigma towards gaems. Chinese parents often nag at their children for 'not growing out of games.' There's a worrying perception, albeit small in scope, that games are an addiction that will damage their livelihood.
There's been news of deaths in Taiwan, Hong Kong and China of young teenagers who died in front of their PC after spending dozens and dozens of hours playing games. It's obviously only a small subset, but it doesn't help improve the perception.
Jawmuncher
Member
MGS:GZ did about what I expected. Figured it would do well enough but not anywhere close to an actual MGS game. Looks like consumers knew what they were getting into when they saw the reduced price.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
I see a big decline coming in April for the PS4 and XB1 personally. This pace can't be sustained.
It's to be expected. The Wii was an anomaly. It created a new gaming demographic that was purely temporary. Those Wii bowling grandparents and Wii-Fit home Yoga moms aren't in the picture anymore. Anyone expecting 300 million consoles sold this gen like the last one, it simply is not possible given the current available demographics of console gamers, unless those soccer moms and grandparents can be convinced to buy another game console.
Hoho for breakfast
Member
I would agree that the price difference is clearly a big deal, but here's why I do not think a $100 price drop alone will help MS:
1. Kinect. People don't want the camera portion of the Kinect for the most part. The whole motion control thing just does not work like it should. Hell I was excited at least for the technical capabilities and then we get a game like Kinect Sports Rivals and it just kills my hopes for the thing.
2. Inferior tech specs. Pretty hard to change this no matter the price. MS decided Kinect + weaker machine and it is easily imo the biggest mistake they made. Through the entire generation it is nearly assured that the PS4 will have the superior version of almost any given mutli plat and there's not a damn thing MS can do about it at this point.
3. MS current image. This one could change over time but for a lot of people it'll take time. MS wanted to block used games, they wanted always online, Kinect always on. Just completely anti consumer directions they wanted this device to go in. Obviously these things haven't happened but the fact remains it's what they want/ed. What does this say about them? How can people trust them after that? They have to change their direction with this stuff or it is simply not going to work for them.
So what can MS do aside from a price drop? I think they should drop mandatory Kinect, drop the price of the stand alone system to $350 (this combats the inferior specs), and stop being so damn anti consumer. Drop the apps paywalls, be humble, keep up the fantastic work they've been doing with the system updates, Keep giving value to things like the games for gold to compete with PS+, stop throwing away money on the NFL or Halo shows or whatever the hell they're up to right now, and above all make some good system selling games.
They can do all these things, and they aren't out of the game yet.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
"hey, what movie are you watching? And why are you leaning forwards mashing on your xbone pad? And is that 1080p?!"
lulz, check spoiler bar next time, Steev.
bigboss370
Member
this is what i am most curious to see, the sales between now and fall-holiday season,
Liabe Brave
Member
Not to say Amazon is a perfect proxy for the larger market, but it likely isn't as unreliable as you imply.
- Infamous is only one position higher than Titanfall, whereas Titanfall led by a huge margin in February (preorders, but counted in March by NPD).
- GZ and FF PS3 are also only a few positions higher. And their sales in March probably did nearly match the Titanfall bundle (which wouldn't be quite all One's sales for the month).
- FF Vita sold half as much as DKC, but it is, again, only a single position higher and the absolute unit difference isn't as huge as more popular games.
The only conclusion I'd be tempted to draw is that items appearing a few positions apart might not end up in that order. Do you have examples of wide gulfs--say, 20 or even 10 positions--where the NPD results were in the opposite order? So far I don't see any strong evidence of gross inaccuracy, and certainly not of any systematic bias in a particular direction.
I'm curious as well. Next month we have Watch Dogs which is going to be heavily marketed by Sony and then we have Destiny is September, which is also going to be heavily marketed by Sony. MS went all in with Titanfall this year and nothing else that's note worthy to the mainstream.
I think there's going to be a significant drop in sales for Xbox One until E3, not many people are willing to risk buying at $500 console when its price may drop ~$50-$100 in a few months.
Its really good in a way because its the first game of the Titanfall franchise...although heavily marketed. But keep in mind the numbers include PC numbers.. correct me if i am wrong because im just now catching up with this huge thread of posts and have many more to read here
Its still more impressive to me that PS4 still managed to outsell X1 ...thats the bigger headline imho.
X1 numbers are still decent though and these are U.S. numbers only.
The biggest difference this gen vs last gen is the amount of social media outlets and the amount of people owning smart phones that can easily access these social media outlets so more people are "aware" of things like how PS4 is the more powerful machine, mistakes MS made with X1 at the beginning,etc
We are now smack dab in the Age of Information and people are much much more aware of whats hot and whats not regardless of the reasons people are going to go with whats hot, what has the best value as in best bang for the buck,etc
For what Microsoft envisioned for their X1 machine...they dropped the ball with the spec's. Having so much of the hardware having to be shared simultaneously with non-gaming aspects of the machine really hurt it.
The hardware should of been at least PS4 level ..maybe a notch above it even considering all the crap Microsoft is trying to do with their console. I said it before and i'll say it again...MS lost the focus on what was most important.
Here we are 5 or 6 months after launch and the only kinect game out is a very average kinect game. Forcing that damn thing on everyone was one of the biggest blunders of them all and all i hope for now is next gen MS will do a complete turn-around like Sony has with PS4.
I think cream said they managed 1mil without taking PC into account
Liabe Brave
Member
The Xbox One is not moribund, or doing very badly. But there's a giant inflection point in its sales graph after last holiday. That launch was fantastic, unprecedented. But its numbers now are very precedented. It sold less in January than 360's equivalent month, and will likely do that again in April. Unless there's a price cut or other major change, lagging behind the 360 numbers is actually quite possible for the rest of 2014.
Doing "about as good as 360" for the near term will be acceptable to Microsoft, but hardly the result they were after. That's especially true given the expenditures they're seeing--they spent an extra $1.6 billion on the Xbox platform during the holiday quarter (versus 2012), and what with Titanfall marketing and bundling, retailer refunds, continuing production costs on their TV shows, and warehousing fees for their growing millions of unsold Xbox Ones, this quarter won't have been cheap either. (Though it'll be cheaper than the RROD was.)
All this is exacerbated by the losses outside the U.S. Last gen, PS3 has outsold 360 by about 7m in Japan, and about 7m in the rest of the non-U.S. world. That took over 7 years, or less than 2m per year. Yet in five months PS4 leads Xbox One by .5m in Japan, and 1.5m in the non-U.S. "other". In other words, Microsoft is on track to lose the rest of the world by much bigger margins than last time. This in a gen where it matters more, since the PS+ charge for multiplayer impacts Live revenue in several unhelpful ways.
Yekshemesh
Member
What I find really shocking is alot of people still fall for that Amirox meme. That shit should be like GAF 101 by now.
EGOMON
Member
According to the graph i saw earlier in this thread XBO is already fell below Wii graph line even with shipped numbers
SenjutsuSage
Banned
Why do you think Kinect + Xbox One can't happen at $399? It can almost certainly happen, and I believe it will, just maybe not as soon as some would like to see. I hope Microsoft stick to their guns on this, because they can make it work.
I don't know if you have an Xbox One, but Kinect absolutely makes the Xbox One a much better system. I often think when people say get rid of Kinect or nobody wants it, they're not saying this from the position of an Xbox One owner that has actually had enough time and experience with the system to really understand just how much Kinect enhances or contributes to the overall experience. Maybe you have the system, and you just don't like Kinect regardless, but I can't see the system without it. It wouldn't be the same. Microsoft has put in way too much work integrating Kinect throughout the system to treat its possible exclusion from any future Xbox One SKU lightly..
And the more they continue to improve it as they have been through these updates, the more costly a potential removal from any Xbox One model will be. And just look at Cortana on Windows Phone 8.1. Microsoft would be insane to not think about getting that thing implemented on Xbox One with Kinect support.
pieatorium
Member
thats ww its ahead in the US, with MS' position in eu and especially japan it was never going to outpace the wii for any amount of time ww. Wii was a huge 3 ]years and a sharp decline, the reason 360 and PS3 even came within 10 million was that they were still selling well in years 6-7
EGOMON
Member
Ah i see my bad
Well it depends how much of a loss Microsoft wants to make off each console sale. At $400, its fairly certain that they'll be making a loss on each console sold. But there's a bigger problem at this point: even with price parity, will anyone opt for the Xbox One over the PS4 for multiplatform gaming? I find that doubtful.
You can talk about how much value the Kinect adds to the Xbox One but, as you kind of allude to, the main problem is demonstrating how it works to the wider public. What is easier to demonstrate to the public in a retail environment:
- Infamous Second Son looking amazing with relatively smooth frame rates.
- Kinect 2 features working properly 100% of the time.
Its very, very difficult to demonstrate how fantastic the Kinect 2 is when it fails to work in environments where people are most likely to ask for purchasing advice. They really needed Kinect Sports Rivals to work perfectly but that didn't really turn out that well. The obvious solution for a company that is unable to sell the benefits of their peripheral, for both OS and game purposes, is to ditch the peripheral.
I don't believe for a second that Sony can beat Microsoft if Microsoft didn't dig themselves into this mess, considering they can't even get a decent update out in a timely manner, but here we are. They can still offer a better software experience and I think they should attempt that route while attempting to undercut Sony. Keeping the Kinect makes it difficult to fight a price war since your premium feature is creating a premium price yet it seen as repulsive by a lot of the public.
Bucket-o-roadkill
Member
Are you saying that the fact titanfall isn't much different between the x1 and 360, that it's a good idea to get the x1 because its not a big deal that the graphics are weaker compared to the ps4? Just want to clarify.
kinoki
Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
If Microsoft has sold 4.5m units still means that there are 500k at the retailers. I'm guessing the majority of which are in NA. Theoretically Microsoft can sustain 2 (or maybe 3) more months without shipping another unit to retailers. Depending on how much sales drop after Titanfall.
With every 100k less it has sold is also another two weeks that it can go without restocking. If I was at Microsoft I would not see that as a good sign. And it's not something that can be easily brushed off when comparing it to 360. Saying it's doing better than 360 is a very odd interpretation of the facts at hand.
The demand simply isn't there. I was one of the minority of GAFers that was adamant that the Bone would not outsell the PS4, despite TF and the tsunami of hype surrounding the game. You could tell that early adopters were purchasing BASED on that hype, as there was little other software - RYSE, Dead Rising - to make for a compelling purchase. Nor do I expect the massive discounts and numerous bundles to have much of an impact either. Again, the demand is not where MS would like it to be (1 million shipped in 3 months, vs 3 million shipped AND eaten up right off the market in 3 months). Also, word of mouth is a powerful weapon in the age of Social Media, and one that has been consistently in Sony's favor since their surprise announcement back in Feb 2013. People know the box is weaker, they have seen the Orth memes, they might even still be under the impression its a DRM-laden NSA box. It will take an entire generation of good-will to turn that ship around and I'm not sure MS can keep that Vaseline smile up for so long. They're not a company that's good at being nice, they're good at being dominant (in certain sectors, at least).
As an aside, the "PS4" has no must-have software argument, which has been salt-and-peppered and thrown out of various moving cars in this thread, needs to die too. Obviously, it does have enough software to warrant a purchase. Multiplats do count. So do indies. And I'm pretty sure that the library on the PS4 is at least twice the size of the X1's by now.
BrokenIcarus
Member
I don't see how that's holy shit worthy though, the install bases are only ~350k apart in the US and it also came out on pc. I think it was basically a given.
Worldwide however might be a different picture. I could see infamous outselling tf in Europe for example.
PS4 - absolutely fabulous result
X1 - great result, one must take into consideration the sales from previous months built on hype, it was the double-edge weapon for MS.
Next months are going to be interesting:
PS4
MLB 14: The Show
The Last of Us
X1
basically no big first party exclusive till Fall
X1 - great result, one must take into consideration the sales from previous months built on hype, it was the double-edge weapon for MS.
Next months are going to be interesting:
PS4
MLB 14: The Show
The Last of Us
X1
basically no big first party exclusive till Fall
Infamous will definitely outsell titanfall in Europe, due to the vast install base outside of US remember PS4 is outselling XB1 by 3:1 or something.
BrokenIcarus
Member
Exactly. It remains to be seen which game sold more overall world wide though until we have hard numbers.
Europe as whole is probably given, considering the Xbox One isn't released in all territories. But looking at for instance UK, Titanfall outsold inFamous, 2:1 iirc. So in markets where both are available it might be different.
I think it'll be close but Titanfall will edge it because of the bundles. I see TF bundle lasting a while but Infamous will be replaced by watchdogs. Also there's no standalone XB1 bundle anymore.
Well, UK is quite close install base wise, when compared to countries like Germany and Spain, where PS4 is firmly on top.
disastermouse
Banned
That's not how Microsoft attained the 'M$' slur - it was because of their dirty and anti-competitive practices in the 90s and early 2000s.
Hey they need some way to positively spin things. I have wonder though, if the bottom falls out for XB1 sales in April like a few are predicting, what will the spin be then?
panda-zebra
Banned
With the deals and bundling it'd be really surprising if it tanked.
9/10
8.9/10?
gundamkyoukai
Member
Japan was not the main reason why PS2 numbers were so high they help but the system was a monster every where .
PS2 sold 155 million in all and in Japan they sold 22 million (last number i can find ) that might seem like a lot but at end of the day it's only about 15% ( rounding the number)
Also look at this gen PS3 sold around 80 million but Japan only makes up 10 million add in 360 numbers and Japan made up less than 10% of the market .
PS4 can sell really when but it depends on how fast they can drop the price to get those extra sales from other market which is something PS2 did great but not PS3.
rocketskates
Member
That's one of the things that are being heavily overblown about the PS4 and Xbox One. There are some games where I think the differences are less flattering to the Xbox One than normal (MGS GZ, even though it looked better than I thought it would once I saw it running on an xbox one), but by and large, even with resolution differences, I'm not seeing any earth shattering graphical differences between Xbox One and PS4 titles. The PS4 gets superior multi-plats, but that doesn't exactly mean what I think some people think it does. These two systems are remarkably close to one another, even though the clear edge will always go in favor of the PS4's stronger hardware. But the point is we aren't exactly slumming over here on the Xbox One. It's a pretty capable system also.
We're getting the same exact game as what the PS4 is getting, with pretty much all or most of the same high quality art assets and graphical features enabled. I mean, people can crawl all over ground textures, bumps in the ground, or magnify an image 5 times to scrutinize each pixel, but if it isn't something that truly jumps out at me without looking too hard, then it doesn't matter to me. PS4 will commonly display superior AA or a higher native resolution, and that's fine. I knew when I got the system I wasn't likely to be on the receiving end of the better multi-plats. I understand and accept that. Many more considerations factored into my decision. So, this is kinda the same stuff any console gamer has seen and grown accustomed to now for years, except now instead of the PC or the 360, people are now constantly taking the chance to tell us about ps4 having superior multi-plats, and that's great for PS4 owners. But we'll be right there with you enjoying the same great looking games on our own next gen console.
Yes, dem "working man's graphics". I went from getting both at launch to not being able to get either at launch, and I only recently got my xbox one last month. PS4 is more likely to be around August or September at the soonest for me. My biggest concern of all for a multi-plat game has always been watch dogs, because I'm really excited about that game. I hope it's solid on the Xbox One, because it's what I'll have to get it on for now. I have a powerful PC, but I prefer to play on my console. Only see myself getting it for PC if I'm really dissatisfied with how it turns out on Xbox One.
With regards to the price discussion, I think people are underestimating the Xbox One and overestimating the PS4 a little bit there. I've said from the get go I thought the PS4's biggest advantage was price. I don't believe resolution or specs are what's making the difference in the sales between the two systems. I think it's all heavily leaning on the price. I believed prior to launch that an Xbox One with Kinect at $399 would outsell the PS4 on an almost consistent basis, and I believe it still. I think the fact that the Xbox One is even selling as good as it is at $500 supports my suspicions. An Xbox One at $399 with no Kinect would change nothing for the Xbox One, I feel. In fact, I believe the PS4 would be beating the Xbox One even more convincingly without Kinect being in the picture, even at a $399 pricepoint. Kinect genuinely makes having the Xbox One a much better experience overall, which is why I think Microsoft getting rid of it, or making it an option, would be a terrible idea. That may sound nuts to some of you, but I honestly can't imagine the system without Kinect at this point.
And to get out in front of the criticism (I'm sure there's plenty to pick at in this post
I think Kinect is the problem, not so much the price, but the price is as well. Its like a Lodestone around Microsofts neck. I think most people dont want it, dont believe its functionally useful, perhaps not in the area where they want to use it. Its sold like 2.4 family living room product that dominates your room, most people dont have that. They dont want to speak to it, dont want to be watched. There's not really any decent games or a decent vision behind its use. They dont understand why they have to have it. Its a peripheral sold as an essential, when you force people to have it, they dont want it.
I think getting rid of Kinect and having a cheaper price might boost sales. But they cant really do that if they have some kind of vision behind it that they havent told anyone yet. Mainly they need decent exclusive games for the console whether its on Kinect or not. They need to continue to innovate, show people experiences they havent seen before and they cant get on the competition. That shouldnt really be that hard with the limited space that triple AAA explores.
geordiemp
Member
I doubt its that easy of course, but they have been copied...
If these consoles launch in China...you know what will happen...
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't know if you have a Wii U, but the touchscreen controller absolutely makes the Wii U a much better system. I often think when people say get rid of touchscreen controller or nobody wants it, they're not saying this from the position of a Wii U owner that has actually had enough time and experience with the system to really understand just how much a touchscreen controller enhances or contributes to the overall experience. Maybe you have the system, and you just don't like touchscreen controller regardless, but I can't see the system without it. It wouldn't be the same. Nintendo has put in way too much work integrating the touchscreen controller throughout the system to treat its possible exclusion from any future Wii U SKU lightly.
...
Uncanny. These magical features that people clearly just don't get but are worth their weight in gold. The exact same arguments for how much they contribute because anecdote.
The market dictates what contributes value. When someone says people don't care about a feature, they're referring to the wider market and whether the feature is a significant driver of value proposition and or sufficient to offset, for example, a higher price point. And it clearly isn't.
Captain Tuttle
Member
Impressive but the install base is much bigger now than when it was in 2008
With all respect, it's not a great result. It's almost a disaster. Xone has been unable to beat ps4 in the US with the bigger release of the year, bundles, promotion, price drop etc etc... I mean, this a terrible signal. In the next months, couldn't be surprising to see NPD numbers like the last January. I don't see any reason to Xone to stay to decent number. MS needs to cut the price drastically, sound crazy but without something like 299 dollars, this console will go to bad in worst in the months incoming.
As a Wii U owner I can say that the tablet controller is an unwanted addition. It has a terrible battery, really large, and not as comfortable to use as the pro controller. It fails at what a controller is supposed to provide.
The web browsing is probably the only use I've gotten out of it. I have yet to use it in any other the games I own. Hell even Donkey Kong just defaults it to black which doesn't help convince me of its value. I'm guessing Mario Cart and Smash both won't require or utilize it in a beneficial way which makes me annoyed they bundled it with the console. The market seems to agree there isn't much demand for a tablet "focused" console.
At this point they are probably are focused on the successor so I doubt we'll get big changes to the Wii U. Any bets Zelda won't make it to the Wii U or Nintendo will pull a twilight princess?
pokeystaples
Banned
So, and this is not me trolling, the next big head to head for Sony and MS won't be until fall, right? Sunset Overdrive and Halo 2 Anniversary vs The Order and DriveClub? I mean, as far as we know right now. There might still be E3 surprises. Should be interesting. 2 new IP's versus an upgrade to arguably the biggest franchise in gaming history and a new IP.
Forza Horizon 2 seems to be coming as well.
I'm not sure if you noticed, but exclusives don't matter as much as some would have you to believe. The biggest games for this year are the usual cod, ass creed, etc. Destiny is going to be enormous.
Halo is nowhere near gaming's biggest franchise (Mario, Zelda, Final Fantasy, GTA, hell eve in the shooter arena Calla Doody probably tops it). E3 needs to be big and give people some reason to buy in to the system or by the time the aforementioned autumn titles come along it'll be too late for them to generate significant mass market adoption.
Nightengale
Member
Yeah, April, May & possibly June looks to be advantage-Sony months, when it comes to the exclusive library and titles that will lean more to a Sony-platform, whereas MS's line-up for the next few months appear to be somewhat dry.
April has for PS4 : FFXIV: ARR, Daylight and Amazing Spiderman 2. Xbox has Kinect Sports. (edit: I initially dismissed Kinect Sports, but that's unfair. It's still more of a system seller than Transistor is.)
May has Watch_Dogs, MLB 14 and Transistor. Xbox has... nothing?
June is rumoured to be TLoU Remastered. Helldivers is said to be early summer, I wouldn't be surprised for that title to be for June either.