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Mario Kart 8 Boosts Wii U Sales by 4.1x in NOA week over week

Faustek

Member
It's already been said....2.35 million.




"#Nintendo said MK8 attach rate in US was 18% versus 7% for MK7. MK8 boosted WiiU sales 4.1x week over week v. MK7 2.4x"


Wii U did 48K in a 4-week period in April.

That's an average of 12K per week.


Assuming the same average constant throughout May NPD:


Week 1 (May 5th - May 11th): 12K (12K total)

Week 2 (May 12th - May 18th): 12K (24K total)

Week 3 (May 19th - May 25th): 12K (36K total)

Week 4 (May 26th - June 1st): 49K (12K * 4.1) (85K total)


Therefore, it would be wise for me to adjust my 98K prediction down to 85K.

Hah, was doing the math. I assumed they meanth that the first week was equal to 400% of the total month of may :D
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
It's already been said....2.35 million.

"#Nintendo said MK8 attach rate in US was 18% versus 7% for MK7. MK8 boosted WiiU sales 4.1x week over week v. MK7 2.4x"

Wii U did 48K in a 4-week period in April.

That's an average of 12K per week.

Assuming the same average constant throughout May NPD:

Week 1 (May 5th - May 11th): 12K (12K total)

Week 2 (May 12th - May 18th): 12K (24K total)

Week 3 (May 19th - May 25th): 12K (36K total)

Week 4 (May 26th - June 1st): 49K (12K * 4.1) (85K total)

Therefore, it would be wise for me to adjust my 98K prediction down to 85K.

I think that would be a mistake Aqua, your funeral ;)

We shall see who will win the crown
 
That doesn't line up with the game having an 18% attach rate though. Maybe sales in May were higher from the start.

Are you sure?


Mario Kart -> 450K in May -> 18% attach rate


Wii U sales in USA through April: 2.35 million
Assumption for May sales: 0.085 million
Total LTD assumption: 2.44 million

450K / 2440K = 18.44% attach rate


If Nintendo rounded 18.44% down to 18%, it would work.
 

idlewild_

Member
Are you sure?


Mario Kart -> 450K in May -> 18% attach rate


Wii U sales in USA through April: 2.35 million
Assumption for May sales: 0.085 million
Total LTD assumption: 2.44 million

450K / 2440K = 18.44% attach rate


If Nintendo rounded 18.44% down to 18%, it would work.

The 450k number is probably rounded as well.
 
Considering 3 days of sales, that is good. Should be flat month over month in June as well I imagine. The Luigi death stare went viral a little after launch and I'd think it has had pretty good word of mouth. Interested to see what it does in June.
 

Raven77

Member
This is a fantastic game.

I was also most excited by Nintendo's E3 offerings out of the "big 3". Really great time to be a gamer and I hope that Nintendo gains some ground on the competition.

Nintendo is a company that I have a tremendous amount of respect for and I wish them well.
 
Do we know what the Wii U did in April's NPD numbers?

48K this April, 37K last April.

If it does 85K this May, Nintendo could claim a massive 158% YOY increase (33K last May -> 85K this May)...and could maybe say something like "This is just another example how Wii U sales continue to gain momentum from last year."

At least, if I worked in Nintendo PR, that's what I would say.
 

MilesTeg

Banned
I think 98K is a solid prediction, which I believe was my prediction as well. The 85k number assumes nobody bought the console in anticipation before MK8 released. Theoretically there should have been some build up in the weeks beforehand. Who knows though.
 
I think 98K is a solid prediction, which I believe was my prediction as well. The 85k number assumes nobody bought the console in anticipation before MK8 released. Theoretically there should have been some build up in the weeks beforehand. Who knows though.

That bump could have been matched by people who decided to forego a purchase to buy the Mario Kart 8 hardware SKU, though.

The inherent problem when trying to gauge pre-release purchases for a console with a new SKU is that they're always affected by the new SKU advertisements.

That's why I picked a constant 12K...because I assume the pre-release demand will be a wash from last month because of it.
 

MilesTeg

Banned
That bump could have been matched by people who decided to forego a purchase to buy the Mario Kart 8 SKU, though.

The inherent problem when trying to gauge pre-release purchases for a console is that they're always affected by advertisements for the new, upcoming SKU.

That's why I picked a constant 12K...because I assume the demand will be a wash from last month because of it.

Well April had absolutely no releases so I think May weeks on average could be higher in anticipation of MK8 releasing late in the month. The MK8 bundle was also $330, $30 higher than normal so I don't think people who were on the fence before MK8 were too thrilled with the price increase. It was a bad bundle imo. That being said you could be right.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
450K and 85K sounds reasonable to me.

Proabably a little lower HW than was expected, but maybe June had a bit of carryover.
 

richprice79

Neo Member
True Story

A good friend of mine who is super casual called me last night and was like hey man I saw E3 on TV and they showed an amazing new Zelda game for the Wii and I have a question....

"Is the Wii U just that tablet controller that I have to buy for the Wii or is it something new"

So I filled him in on how its HD and has MK8 and Super Mario World ect... and he was very interested. It just goes to show that people still don't know what it is.
 
True Story

A good friend of mine who is super casual called me last night and was like hey man I saw E3 on TV and they showed an amazing new Zelda game for the Wii and I have a question....

"Is the Wii U just that tablet controller that I have to buy for the Wii or is it something new"

So I filled him in on how its HD and has MK8 and Super Mario World ect... and he was very interested. It just goes to show that people still don't know what it is.

How many sales have they cost themselves at this point by not just calling it "Wii 2"? Wii U might be the worst console name I've ever heard (and I love the console).

MK8 is the most fun I've had with a racing game since SNES Kart, although that classic will never be bested. My friend and I have likely played thousands of hours of it over the last couple decades.
 

Mesoian

Member
True Story

A good friend of mine who is super casual called me last night and was like hey man I saw E3 on TV and they showed an amazing new Zelda game for the Wii and I have a question....

"Is the Wii U just that tablet controller that I have to buy for the Wii or is it something new"

So I filled him in on how its HD and has MK8 and Super Mario World ect... and he was very interested. It just goes to show that people still don't know what it is.

I've seen this at least a half dozen times at different retail outlets.

Should have called the WiiU "The Nintendo Entertainment System"
 

prag16

Banned
Well I'm revising that 100k Wii U prediction down then

I considered, and I think I'm staying at 105k even though my first reaction was to revise downward. If we assume no pre-MK8 bump whatsoever, then more like 80k makes more sense. But if they had 15-18k the previous week in anticipation of kart (Japan got an increase of a few thousand the week before for no other reason; though to be fair, they didn't have a new SKU like the west did) instead of a "normal" 10-12k week, that could push the total over 100k. 12 + 12 + 16 + 65 == 105. Plausible enough.

I'll probably get burned, but I think I'll stick to my guns. Probably.

10k + 10k + 10k + 40k is probably the absolute worst case scenario, with 12k + 12k + 18k +78k being the absolute best case. Range of 70k to 120k.
 
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