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[EdReedFan20]

Baseball is my favorite sport, but sometimes I used to feel like a salary cap was needed to create parity like the NFL. Every year in the NFL there seems to be an up and coming underdog. However, the last four MLB seasons have kind of shown that you don't necessarily need a salary cap for parity. In 2012, the Baltimore Orioles made the post-season for the first time since the 1997 season and the Washington Nationals made the post-season for the first time since 1981 when they were the Montreal Expos (the Expos would have made the post-season in 1994 had there been no strike), in 2013, the Pittsburgh Pirates made the post-season for the first time since the 1992 season, in 2014, the Kansas City Royals made the post-season since 1986, and finally in 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays made the post-season for the first time since 1993.

With the Blue Jays clinching a playoff spot, every team in baseball (30 total) has made the playoffs. The current longest post-season drought belongs to the Seattle Mariners, who last made the post season in 2001, following a record-tying 116 win regular season. The Miami Marlins have the second longest. They last made the post-season when they won the World Series in 2003. The team after the Marlins is the Houston Astros, who last made the post-season when they lost the World Series in 2005 to the Chicago White Sox. The Astros are important here, because with a win tomorrow, they too will end their drought. Leaving the San Diego Padres with the third longest streak. They last made the post-season in 2006.

Now, what has changed that has allowed these long streaks to finally be broken. I have one theory. In 2012, MLB made a major change to the sport. They introduced a second wild-card and a one-game Wild Card series in which the winner plays the top seeded team in the League Divisional Series. Now teams that were typically out of contention by the All-Star Game were more competitive because a post-season spot was still in play for many of them. I think the second-wild card team is one of the smartest moves baseball has made in recent history and the sport is really benefiting from it with new blood making the post-season finally. I'm so happy for long-suffering fans that can enjoy the taste of post-season (some perhaps for the first time in their lives).

Edit:

I went a head and made a list of the last time each MLB team made the post-season.

2001- Seattle Mariners
2003- Miami Marlins
2006- San Diego Padres
2008- Chicago White Sox
2009- Colorodo Rockies
2010- Minnesota Twins
2011- Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks
2013- Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, Cincinatti Reds, Atlanta Braves
2014- Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics
2015- Kansas City Royals, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Saint Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets

It's crazy that since 2011, 24 of the 30 MLB franchises have made the playoffs at least once. I'd say that's pretty cool.

 

[newjeruse]

It's been a few years now. A combination of smarter teams, more playoff spots, and the talent curve trending younger (away from high-priced free agents).

 

[Randolph Freelander]

The second wild card is terrible. It's not a playoff, it's a play-in. Make it a real series of at least 5 games and then it's a good thing.

As for parity overall, no, I don't think baseball has it. A few organizations are doing a better job than others developing talent through their farm systems, but the big markets still have advantages. New York, Boston, LA, et al., can rebound quicker than Pittsburgh or Kansas City, Boston can go from worst to first in an offseason. It took the Pirates and Royals 20-30 years to get back. They're back now, but how long can they stay there?

 

[EdReedFan20]

The second wild card is terrible. It's not a playoff, it's a play-in. Make it a real series of at least 5 games and then it's a good thing.

As for parity overall, no, I don't think baseball has it. A few organizations are doing a better job than others developing talent through their farm systems, but the big markets still have advantages. New York, Boston, LA, et al., can rebound quicker than Pittsburgh or Kansas City, Boston can go from worst to first in an offseason. It took the Pirates and Royals 20-30 years to get back. They're back now, but how long can they stay there?

Yeah, that's the one worry. I don't want to wait another 14 years for my Orioles to make the post-season. If they win tomorrow, they can avoid a losing season for 4 straight seasons, but with so many free agents upcoming, the team could be a shell of themselves next year.

 

[UraMallas]

You seriously gotta call out my Mariners like that?

Dick move.

 

[EdReedFan20]

You seriously gotta call out my Mariners like that?

Dick move.

If it makes you feel better, I think they are on the cusp of ending their streak soon. I really thought it could be this year, but maybe next year. They seem to be building a strong enough core to make them a playoff caliber team.

 

[BFIB]

There are only 2 MLB teams that have not made the postseason in the past decade, the Marlins and Mariners.

 

[UraMallas]

There are only 2 MLB teams that have not made the postseason in the past decade, the Marlins and Mariners.

WTF, man. Stop these unsolicited attacks.

 

[EdReedFan20]

There are only 2 MLB teams that have not made the postseason in the past decade, the Marlins and Mariners.

And potentially the Astros. The Angels could still leapfrog them into the second Wild Card. Like I said in the original post, they last went in 2005 when they lost to the Chicago White Sox in the World Series.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Regarding the first point, wishing MLB is as wide open as NFL, it ain't possible. The fewer games there are in a sport, the more unpredictable it is. Can't compare a 16 game season, and then single game knockouts, to 3,863 games per season, or whatever it is in baseball.

The more games, the more the cream can rise to the top. The longer a playoff series, the more chance there is for the better team to win.

 

[Team Alucard]

I wouldn't say the league as a whole has parity, but the MLB playoffs are by far the flukiest of any of the big four.

Really, the NBA is the only league where the best teams usually end up winning the championship.

 

[BFIB]

And potentially the Astros. The Angels could still leapfrog them into the second Wild Card. Like I said in the original post, they last went in 2005 when they lost to the Chicago White Sox in the World Series.

I do think there's parity in the game. The playoffs are a crap shoot, except on even years when the Giants make the playoffs.

 

[EdReedFan20]

Regarding the first point, wishing MLB is as wide open as NFL, it ain't possible. The fewer games there are in a sport, the more unpredictable it is. Can't compare a 16 game season, and then single game knockouts, to 3,863 games per season, or whatever it is in baseball.

The more games, the more the cream can rise to the top. The longer a playoff series, the more chance there is for the better team to win.

I had actually tried in Outside the Park Baseball to make a NFL-esque schedule for baseball, but couldn't figure out how to create a one game a week schedule. I thought it would be a fun experiment. Would teams use the same starting pitcher every game? How would relievers be utilized? I really wanted to find out.

I do think there's parity in the game. The playoffs are a crap shoot, except on even years when the Giants make the playoffs.

And odd for the Cardinals.

2010- Giants (beat the Rangers), 2011 Cardinals (beat the Rangers), 2012 Giants (beat the Tigers), 2013 Cardinals (lost to the Red Sox), 2014 Giants (beat the Royals), 2015 Cardinals have the best record in baseball.

 

[UraMallas]

Regarding the first point, wishing MLB is as wide open as NFL, it ain't possible. The fewer games there are in a sport, the more unpredictable it is. Can't compare a 16 game season, and then single game knockouts, to 3,863 games per season, or whatever it is in baseball.

The more games, the more the cream can rise to the top. The longer a playoff series, the more chance there is for the better team to win.

That's not necessarily true. You have teams that would have been out of it by the end of any other sport's season going this year because they put it together late. This year, it's the Texas Rangers. They were picked last by a lot of the press and were in the cellar for a good portion of the first half. Then, well, they figured it out. They would have been eliminated in any other sport but the amount of games in baseball allows for a different type of unpredictability.

 

[EdReedFan20]

While I'm not a Cubs fan, I'm giddy over the notion that Back to the Future Part II's prediction of the Cubs ending their World Series streak ending in 2015 could come true, sure they can't play a team from Miami (since both Chicago and Miami are NL teams and the Marlins aren't even in the playoffs anyways, so no repeat of the 2003 NLCS). Funny, though, that the movie predicted Miami would have a baseball team 4 years before it actually happened (despite the Marlins not being renamed Miami until 2012).

 

[Alex_Mexico]

While I'm not a Cubs fan, I'm giddy over the notion that Back to the Future Part II's prediction of the Cubs ending their World Series streak ending in 2015 could come true, sure they can't play a team from Miami (since both Chicago and Miami are NL teams and the Marlins aren't even in the playoffs anyways, so no repeat of the 2003 NLCS). Funny, though, that the movie predicted Miami would have a baseball team 4 years before it actually happened (despite the Marlins not being renamed Miami until 2012).

Pretty much this. I only sorta follow baseball when at the playoffs stage but I sure as hell will be cheering the Cubs come Wednesday in their Wild Card game.

107 year drought is too fucking much and ending it the year BTTF2 said it would happen 26 years ago is too good not to cheer for.

Go Cubs 2015!

 

[EdReedFan20]

Pretty much this. I only sorta follow baseball when at the playoffs stage but I sure as hell will be cheering the Cubs come Wednesday in their Wild Card game.

107 year drought is too fucking much and ending it the year BTTF2 said it would happen 26 years ago is too good not to cheer for.

Go Cubs 2015!

I wish I could go back to the beginning of the season, put some money on the Cubbies! ;p

I wonder if people actually did that, because of the movie. HAHAHAHA. That would be seriously awesome.

Still waiting for Jaws 5-18 in anticipation of Max Spielberg's Jaws 19.

 

[BigJonsson]

No

The Jays payroll is pretty high, just like when they won the World Series in 92 and 93

 

[harSon]

Bud Selig doesn't want there to be parity, considering bullshit like putting a cap on draft spending.

 

[EdReedFan20]

Bud Selig doesn't want there to be parity, considering bullshit like putting a cap on draft spending.

Bud Selig is not in charge any more. Rob Manfred is.

 

[harSon]

Bud Selig is not in charge any more. Rob Manfred is.

*Didn't want

The rule was put in place in 2012

Edit: Although we didn't get Mark Appel due to the rule, so I suppose it's not so bad.

 

[Alex_Mexico]

I wish I could go back to the beginning of the season, put some money on the Cubbies! ;p

I wonder if people actually did that, because of the movie. HAHAHAHA. That would be seriously awesome.

Still waiting for Jaws 5-18 in anticipation of Max Spielberg's Jaws 19.

The Cubs have a soft spot in my heart too because of the NCLS incident some years ago with that kid in glasses, cap and glasses (Steve?) where he interfered with a very late play that resulted in the Cubs loosing the game and later loosing the series and the NCLS championship.

I saw that shit live and I couldn't believe my eyes.

Go Cubs.

 

[zeshakag]

I had actually tried in Outside the Park Baseball to make a NFL-esque schedule for baseball, but couldn't figure out how to create a one game a week schedule. I thought it would be a fun experiment. Would teams use the same starting pitcher every game? How would relievers be utilized? I really wanted to find out.

I would love a sprint-to-the-finish style season akin to the NFL, where every game is life or death with only 16 games. Smaller rosters, only 3 total pitchers in the bullpen per game. The atmosphere would be closer to NFL games because each game is so urgent.

Single elimination playoffs. One championship game.


Would lose a ton of TV revenue and teams would become poorer, but I would watch a lot more.

 

[devilhawk]

There is parity now. For now.

A lot of this is due to the post-steroid era. You had teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Phillies, and others dealing with massive contracts for power hitters and ace pitchers. But the game has changed without steroids for the second time. After steroids ended many teams went and spent heavily on on base percentage. Now those players are overvalued. Bullpens, speed, defense, and contact are now the undervalued stats.

Many teams are reeling from signing longterm contracts to pitchers. If you throw an ace out there for 6 years of 200 innings - the last two years are dead money. Without steroids to extend careers, the huge contracts are even more of a risk.

 

[BigJonsson]

There is parity now. For now.

A lot of this is due to the post-steroid era. You had teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Phillies, and others dealing with massive contracts for power hitters and ace pitchers. But the game has changed without steroids for the second time. After steroids ended many teams went and spent heavily on on base percentage. Now those players are overvalued. Bullpens, speed, defense, and contact are now the undervalued stats.

Many teams are reeling from signing longterm contracts to pitchers. If you throw an ace out there for 6 years of 200 innings - the last two years are dead money. Without steroids to extend careers, the huge contracts are even more of a risk.

Except Mark Buehrle

 

[AppleBlade]

One thing that bothers me about baseball is that the difference between the best winning percentage and lowest winning percentage is not really that far apart.

In the NBA last season, The Warriors won 81.7% of their games. Minnesota only won 19.5% of their games.

in MLB, however the best team, the Cardinals who have 100 wins only have 62.5% winning percentage and the worst team, the Phillies win 38.5% of their games.

Even if you check in on MLB standings when they are at around 82 games played (the number played by the NBA) you'll see something along these lines.

I can't really put my finger on why that bothers me but it just makes me less excited about baseball. If the Cardinals lose a game to a scrub team, it's not's a big deal because they lose over a 3rd of their games anyways.

 

[theepicoftyler]

Chicago is waiting to celebrate a crater into the Earth. The atmosphere around the Cubs is so electric right now.

That's all I want to add to this thread.

 

[devilhawk]

Except Mark Buehrle

4 years 58 million is nothing, say, compared to Verlander at 7 years 180 million haha. The tigers are still on the hook for 100 plus million to Verlander.

 

[Chris R]

Mariners golden age is coming, just you wait.

 

[UraMallas]

Mariners golden age is coming, just you wait.

Dipoto Era begins tomorrow!

 

[Xyrmellon]

Yeah, that's the one worry. I don't want to wait another 14 years for my Orioles to make the post-season. If they win tomorrow, they can avoid a losing season for 4 straight seasons, but with so many free agents upcoming, the team could be a shell of themselves next year.

Along the same line (and same division), after 4-5 good years the Rays have turned to garbage again. There isn't alot of hope on the horizon either , especially with the owners fighting with the city to get out of the stadium lease.

 

[Zee-Row]

Along the same line (and same division), after 4-5 good years the Rays have turned to garbage again. There isn't alot of hope on the horizon either , especially with the owners fighting with the city to get out of the stadium lease.

I wouldn't call the Rays garbage they are just average because they have a lot of games where the hitting is awful. Pitching is great though , If they get bats they can be in the post season again.

 

[zer0das]

Regarding the first point, wishing MLB is as wide open as NFL, it ain't possible. The fewer games there are in a sport, the more unpredictable it is.

Especially since the NFL alters each season's schedule so much. Produces some wonky results and a fair share of teams at the bottom who probably don't deserve to get in and won't get far.

I don't know if it is parity in baseball though. The systems underlying baseball drafting and talent are just a lot more complex than basketball or football. You generally (with some exceptions and variance) know what you're going to get in those two sports, in baseball it is much more of a crapshoot. Small market teams can compete every now and then in baseball, but they can't cover up big mistakes nearly as easily as a team with a lot of money.

 

[TheSecondSpitter]

The second wild card is terrible. It's not a playoff, it's a play-in. Make it a real series of at least 5 games and then it's a good thing.

You completely miss the point of the second WC.

One thing that bothers me about baseball is that the difference between the best winning percentage and lowest winning percentage is not really that far apart.

In the NBA last season, The Warriors won 81.7% of their games. Minnesota only won 19.5% of their games.

in MLB, however the best team, the Cardinals who have 100 wins only have 62.5% winning percentage and the worst team, the Phillies win 38.5% of their games.

Even if you check in on MLB standings when they are at around 82 games played (the number played by the NBA) you'll see something along these lines.
.

At least <.500 teams don't make the playoffs in MLB.

 

[Frozenprince]

No not even close. It's the same as it's always been, teams with good pitching that doesn't break and just enough offense to carry the day usually win.

It's why the Cardinals and their devil magic do so well.

Look at the teams going to the playoffs this year, all but one of them in each league has a payroll over $110 Million.

 

[zulux21]

The Cubs have a soft spot in my heart too because of the NCLS incident some years ago with that kid in glasses, cap and glasses (Steve?) where he interfered with a very late play that resulted in the Cubs loosing the game and later loosing the series and the NCLS championship.

I saw that shit live and I couldn't believe my eyes.

Go Cubs.

A. it wasn't interference the ball was just past the field of play.
B. It was the series of huge cub screw ups that followed that lost them the game, not that play.

the cubs were up 3-0 at that time, that play didn't make the cubs give up 8 runs right after that, the cubs did that themselves.

that play also didn't make the cubs lose the next game either... again all the cubs.

as for the OP... parity, hahaha no.

There is still a lot of stuff that is just silly. the rich teams will still continue to get their teams to the playoffs at a much better clip. Just because we have some teams making it after a while, that doesn't mean much aside from they are getting a little better at focusing on drafting over time. The low money teams only have a 1-3 year window before they have to sell off their good talent and hope they get lucky.

beyond that we still have some really broken systems in baseball such as the competitive balance draft pick as a team like the cards really shouldn't be included in that as it's pretty easy to argue they have been more than competitive for a while now. I know it's based on market size but there are a ton of teams that take in less money than they do per year that aren't included while they are for some reason :/

 

[Frozenprince]

A. it wasn't interference the ball was just past the field of play.
B. It was the series of huge cub screw ups that followed that lost them the game, not that play.

the cubs were up 3-0 at that time, that play didn't make the cubs give up 8 runs right after that, the cubs did that themselves.

that play also didn't make the cubs lose the next game either... again all the cubs.

Dusty Baker destroying Mark Prior's arm is what fucked the Cubs. Alou was 40 years old when that happened he needed to STFU and sit down and be quiet.

 

[zulux21]

Dusty Baker destroying Mark Prior's arm is what fucked the Cubs. Alou was 40 years old when that happened he needed to STFU and sit down and be quiet.

to be fair he made a good attempt at it, but even without the fan there I don't actually think he would have held onto it, he would have gotten it in the end of his glove and while coming down it most likely would have flied free anyways.

beyond that while yes what happened next would have changed, if you assume things played out the same the cubs still would have given up 2 runs that inning and the tying run for sure the next inning (not sure what happened with the first two batters the next inning as I would need to look that up, but if either got a hit the cubs likely would have lost their lead)

 

[Mortemis]

You guys keep on talking about the mariners, and all I gotta say is, who?

Spoiler

soon!

 

[TheSecondSpitter]

Along the same line (and same division), after 4-5 good years the Rays have turned to garbage again. There isn't alot of hope on the horizon either , especially with the owners fighting with the city to get out of the stadium lease.

There's plenty of hope on the horizon, like moving to a real baseball town where the previous baseball team was killed by a senile and corrupt Commisioner.

 

[zer0das]

No not even close. It's the same as it's always been, teams with good pitching that doesn't break and just enough offense to carry the day usually win.

It's why the Cardinals and their devil magic do so well.

Look at the teams going to the playoffs this year, all but one of them in each league has a payroll over $110 Million.

That's not true. Mets, Pirates, and the Astros (if they make it) are all under 110 million (unless I'm wrong about some trades bumping up the Mets over it). Even if it was, 110 million only puts you in the top 2/3rds. That's not that rigorous a standard?

 

[Frozenprince]

That's not true. Mets, Pirates, and the Astros (if they make it) are all under 110 million (unless I'm wrong about some trades bumping up the Mets over it). Even if it was, 110 million only puts you in the top 2/3rds. That's not that rigorous a standard?

Mets are $114M right now, not counting the Stros until they clinch. And over $110M on average is the top-16. That's the crux of it because 10 out of those 16 teams are the ones that routinely make the playoffs year after year after year while those outside of it rely on a once every 5 years run.

Look at the top ten in total payroll and you'll see the teams that win more than anybody else.

Baseball is a sport where parity is functionally impossible because there is no salary cap.

 

[zulux21]

That's not true. Mets, Pirates, and the Astros (if they make it) are all under 110 million (unless I'm wrong about some trades bumping up the Mets over it). Even if it was, 110 million only puts you in the top 2/3rds. That's not that rigorous a standard?

yup... salary by team here

if you are going to pick 110 you might as well say that no team making it has a lower than 70 mil salary

it's simpler to look at it this way.

at this point the teams confirmed going to the playoffs
in the top 15 - 6
in the bottom 15 - 3

if the astros make it it becomes 6 to 4 if the angels make it it becomes 7-3

either way it's clear that the higher paid teams are far more likely to make it to the playoffs.

 

[Frozenprince]

I'm not pulling $110 out as some arbitrary number, that's the baseline for the upper half of the league most years. Just LAST YEAR only 14 teams were above it.

Also don't use that use Sportrac, it's much more reliable IMO.

 

[cashman]

That's not true. Mets, Pirates, and the Astros (if they make it) are all under 110 million (unless I'm wrong about some trades bumping up the Mets over it). Even if it was, 110 million only puts you in the top 2/3rds. That's not that rigorous a standard?

6 teams in the upper half of payroll and 4 in the lower half. Development of good farm systems is a great equalizer due to the 6 years of team control.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

Baseball is a sport where parity is functionally impossible because there is no salary cap.

Depends on the scale you looking at. Short series (aka the postseason)? You have a ton of parity and an objectively inferior team can win a lot more often than you'd expect compared to other sports. 162 game marathon? Talent level and depth will separate the good and the bad teams the vast majority of time.

 

[Frozenprince]

6 teams in the upper half of payroll and 4 in the lower half. Development of good farm systems is a great equalizer due to the 6 years of team control.

But that equalizer usually burns out much quicker than the teams that can just continuously funnel in players by virtue of just having more money than everybody else.

Hell if you have the money you can just buy a farm system, the Yankees do it all the time.

 

[zer0das]

If you want to be technical, like 7 million of the Mets' payroll is on retaining fees for Bonilla, Beltran, and other players. That's not exactly helping them win?

If the Mets are at 110 million though, 2/3rds the league is. So I fail to see your point. Payrolls go up substantially over time, 110 million isn't that much anymore. Yes, the top few teams usually make it to the playoffs, but there's enough room for small-mid market teams to make it periodically too. And that's not bad.

 

[zulux21]

I'm not pulling $110 out as some arbitrary number, that's the baseline for the upper half of the league most years. Just LAST YEAR only 14 teams were above it.

Also don't use that use Sportrac, it's much more reliable IMO.

baseball team cost is going up quite a bit each year, there isn't really such a thing as a flat number that works for most years.

I do agree that Sportrac does look better though since you can see all the details, The one I listed likely was starting salaries

either way I personally like cot's but they just have opening and ending salaries.

either way we are basically arguing the same thing just with different words lol. I just don't like flat numbers when talking about team costs as they are rapidly going up.
5 years ago a team valued at 105 was a top 10 expensive team
10 years ago a team valued at 73 was the 13th most expensive team.

if things continue like this in 10 years the breaking point for top 15 will be around 200 mil lol.

as for the argument for a salary cap, well really a salary min would be better. We have a luxury tax, which is at a fine level. part of the problem is what is done with the money from that.

50% is used to fund player benefits
25% is used to fund baseball development in countries that don&#8217;t have high school baseball
25% goes to the Industry Growth Fund

I mean not that those are horrible things, but really it should be going back into the other teams (like the nba apparently). The goal really shouldn't be to handcuff the rich teams as much as make them help pay for the cheaper market teams to be more competitive, baseball is at its best when to teams of near equal strength are going at it. It would be a huge mess to set up, and an even bigger mess of people gaming the system until they figure out how to do it fairly but still.

If you want to be technical, like 7 million of the Mets' payroll is on retaining fees for Bonilla, Beltran, and other players. That's not exactly helping them win?

If the Mets are at 110 million though, 2/3rds the league is. So I fail to see your point. Payrolls go up substantially over time, 110 million isn't that much anymore. Yes, the top few teams usually make it to the playoffs, but there's enough room for small-mid market teams to make it periodically too. And that's not bad.

it's not bad, but it could be better.

 

[Bluekaveli]

When the Dodgers finally win everything will be normal