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Activision shares plunges on disappointing earnings (Skylanders, Guitar Hero)

ZeroX03

Banned
Isn't the new Guitar Hero plagued with shitty microtranactions?

If the user reviews on Amazon are to be believed, they really negatively impact the game (it's currently 3 out of 5 stars). I mean, people are pissed.

No, it's not plagued by it. It's one of the most well integrated forms of microtransactions I've seen in a game. I've played a huge number of songs, and haven't spent a cent.

If you're very attached to buying specific songs and playing them over and over - like I suspect a lot of the people raging on Amazon - you'd probably be annoyed by it. There's RB4 for that. But as far as just wanting to play songs, the selection is huge. Live is fantastic.
 

Joni

Member
This is crazy in comparison to Amiibo which have poor in game functions generally but are really nice items to collect. The sales of Amiibo have been insane.
The sales of Amiibo are nice, but they are lower. Amiibo is at 30 million, Skylanders was at 100 million back in 2013.
 

fernoca

Member
Isn't the new Guitar Hero plagued with shitty microtranactions?

If the user reviews on Amazon are to be believed, they really negatively impact the game (it's currently 3 out of 5 stars). I mean, people are pissed.
Depends what you mean by plagued.

By playing the game you level up and you earn credit that you can choose to spend either stuff for the guitar, roads, etc. or tokens that you use (1) to play individual songs whenever you like instead of playing whatever is currently..well, live.

The microtransactions part comes in Hero Cash which is credit you can buy with money to spend on that stuff I mentioned above, instead of just earning it by playing.

That's it. Of course some online reviews will blow it out of proportion and we even had the usual thread in here that did too. But no "plague".


I really figured Guitar Hero would be cheaply made enough to sell small numbers and just sort of coast to success eventually.
Wouldn't surprise me if it's a result of them expecting to sell like 1 million worldwide by the end of the year, but failing that number short and therefore be disappointed.

On November 2 they talked about being happy with the sales (of just 2 weeks). So they probably assumed sales would stay the same through the rest of the year or just more. Sales in the US went up the second month even.

Should be around 400k-500k worldwide by December. With most coming from the US.
 

Golgo 13

The Man With The Golden Dong
Depends what yo mean by plagued.

By playing the game you level up and you earn credit that you can choose to spend either dtuff for te guitar, roads, etc. or tokens that you use (1) to play individual songs whenever you like instead of playing whatever is currently..well, live.

The microtransactions part comes in Hero Cash which is credit you can buy with money to spend on that stuff I mentioned above, instead of just earning it by playing.

That's it. Of course some online reviews will blow it out of proportion and we even had the usual thread in here that did too. But no "plague".
Interesting. The other complaint I see quite a bit there is the quality of the Guitar controller. Anyway, good to know.
 
This is crazy in comparison to Amiibo which have poor in game functions generally but are really nice items to collect. The sales of Amiibo have been insane.

I banned Skylanders from my house because of the heavily gated content and new gimmicks with each release, usually requiring another new portal!

The sales of Amiibo are nice, but they are lower. Amiibo is at 30 million, Skylanders was at 100 million back in 2013.

The key to Amiibo was Nintendo didn't overship. A lot of people said how Nintendo was leaving money on the table with stock issues but truthfully it's better to undership a bit than ship so much that store have to heavily discount stuff to get rid of it.

You're seeing that with Skylanders, Infinity and Lego Dimensions in all retailer. There are more weeks in a year when Toysrus offers a b1g40% on sale on them than weeks without the sale.

Nintendo show this themselves with Animal Crossing Amiibo. Not only did the game drop quicker than any other Nintendo release but Mabel and Tom Nook were around $5 for over two months direct from Amazon down from $13.
 

Carcetti

Member
I can see why Skylanders would come down. There's clear franchise fatigue (I play them with my kids and even they seem kinda done with it for now) even though the games are quality stuff. Then there's Disney Infinity which is really good for the first time in its 3.0 version. Plus damn some of the Skylander toys seem cheaply made when compared to the newer Disney figures.

Shame about Guitar Hero, it's a fun game.


Isn't the new Guitar Hero plagued with shitty microtranactions?
If the user reviews on Amazon are to be believed, they really negatively impact the game (it's currently 3 out of 5 stars). I mean, people are pissed.

That's just crazy. Their micro scheme is very reasonable and you get tons and tons of music for the basic price of the game.
 

Meia

Member
Also somewhat telling that in the call they didn't reveal the WoW subscriber numbers either. Think that's the first time they haven't done that, so can't imagine that's a good sign either on the Blizzard side of things.
 

fernoca

Member
Interesting. The other complaint I see quite a bit there is the quality of the Guitar controller. Anyway, good to know.
Yeah. But even still seems on part with the curse..or course of this instruments. :p

While I don't have problems with mine, the guitars are also a bit finicky around other wireless/bluetooth devices (a friend of mine can't even play while wearing his smart watch as it doesn't recognize a few buttons; with the same guitar I use every day since launch).

And even someone in here had to return like 5 guitars because of varying problems.
 

Saty

Member
They also said they wont be releasing another Guitar Hero title this gen. They will keep making content for Live.
 

dimb

Bjergsen is the greatest midlane in the world
Also somewhat telling that in the call they didn't reveal the WoW subscriber numbers either. Think that's the first time they haven't done that, so can't imagine that's a good sign either on the Blizzard side of things.
They said at their last investor meeting that they wouldn't be revealing WoW sub numbers unless they felt there was something to say.
 

ZeroX03

Banned
While I don't have problems with mine the guitars are also a bit finicky around other wireless/bluettoth devices (a friend of mine can't even play while wearing his smart watch as it doesn't recognize a few buttons; with the same guitar I use every day since launch).

I always play with my Apple Watch on and it's fine. That's some inconsistent guitar quality.
 

Moertel

Member
Stock price plunging is mostly due to outlook.

They're only projecting $6.1 billion in revenue for 2016. In 2015, ATVI had 4.66b and KING just reported revenues dropped 12% to $2.0b.
 

NHale

Member
Clearly Guitar based games aren't as popular as they once were. I don't perceive a resurgence.

It's dead. The annual sequels started the downward trend and once people started putting their plastic instruments in the garbage or giving it away, it created a barrier that's hard to break "Why would I buy another plastic instrument if 3 years ago I threw my guitar into the trash?".

The only way this genre becomes viable again is with some kind of breakthrough innovation. (Ubisoft already tried the hardcore way as well)
 
The parents (and their wallets) are probably getting tired of the Skylanders cash grab techniques by now. And the quality of the figurines are getting worse and worse on top of that so the collectioners are not biting either.
 

ZehDon

Gold Member
Activision has fostered a very risky long term reliance on milking a shallow set of IPs . Now the bill is due
When your "shallow set of IPs" include: Warcraft, Starcraft, Diablo, Hearthstone, Overwatch, Call of Duty, Destiny, Candy Crush and Skylanders, just to name the biggest, that's actually the opposite of risky long term planning. The issue Activision have is that they've been on the up and up for the better part of a decade. They're not doing bad by any stretch of the imagination, its simply hard to maintain that kind of growth. In fact, their diversification efforts so far, such as buying King and MLG, demonstrate that management understand they need to expand in new ways. Despite their shit-as-fuck pricing and DLC strategies, they're really good at the business of making money off of video games.
 

Liamario

Banned
It's dead. The annual sequels started the downward trend and once people started putting their plastic instruments in the garbage or giving it away, it created a barrier that's hard to break "Why would I buy another plastic instrument if 3 years ago I threw my guitar into the trash?".

The only way this genre becomes viable again is with some kind of breakthrough innovation. (Ubisoft already tried the hardcore way as well)

Guitar Hero- VR.

Become the rockstar you've always dreamed of being.
 

netBuff

Member
Not true. The company was in trouble before they made the gamble on Rock Band 4. That whole thing was basically a hail mary on their part and it didn't work out (obviously). The game itself exceeded expectations (except for the guitar bundle).

It's "exceeded expectations"? I don't think that's true. The full bundle including drums etc. (a very niche product) selling a bit more than expected can't be a big indicator of success when the main SKU is underperforming.

Plastic guitar games seem dead.
 
Clearly Guitar based games aren't as popular as they once were. I don't perceive a resurgence.

I think both companies were hoping to capture the market for music games, but ended up having to split it, leaving neither company enough revenue to consider their projects a success.
 

Ridley327

Member
Skylanders being muscled out isn't a surprise. It's now having to compete with some absolutely massive pre-existing IPs in that market, and Activision has curiously never done much to expand Skylanders outside of gaming.
 
Well the music game revival seems to be a one year affair. Not surprised by Guitar Hero since I remember during Black Friday when it was $40 off the game seemed to untouched in Target. Skylanders is also not surprising since the toys to life market is much more saturated than it used to be.
 
So do people think that Toys To Life games have hit their sales peak or?

Not for a few years. It will be kept afloat by Star Wars and Lego for another two years unless either part truly reinvents the genre.


I found the earnings call most interesting when they said they expected CoD 2016 sales to be lower then this year. But following up Black Ops would probably mean that in any situation.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Skylanders being muscled out isn't a surprise. It's now having to compete with some absolutely massive pre-existing IPs in that market, and Activision has curiously never done much to expand Skylanders outside of gaming.
Disney Infinity is also down and Warner hasn't been talking up how great LEGO Dimensions did, so I suspect we have at least one too many series right now.

That said, Warner said they intend to be releasing expansions to Dimensions through Fall 2016, so I suspect they're not releasing a new game this year.

Skylanders is going in with a cartoon this year in an attempt to remedy the other part of your sentiment.
 
I assume it did a little better since they are patching the game constantly and weekly DLC still.

Still love Rockband and I'm glad it's out on this gen.


Even the Wii U is supported and that ain't doing well. They can't just bail on the game.


PS: I love my Wii U.
 
Not sure why anybody thought they could bring the plastic instrument games back. That was a fad for a very particular time and place and now it's dead.
 

diffusionx

Gold Member
Wasn't Skylanders this year considered a weak entry? I'm not sure the game underperformed because of competition or because it just wasnt' as good.

Don't understand why anyone would have expected GH to do well. Seemed like a lark that slightly exceeded expectations, not a AAA tentpole. Will the stock go down if the next Tony Hawk does poorly?

Underperform is relative to a benchmark they set. They expect it to hit a number N, it either goes above or below that. I really don't know if they expected it to be some massive 20M hit.
 

Xav

Member
Madcatz's top execs all resigned and the company had to restructure due to Rock Band mainly, so there you go!
Madcatz were in bad shape prior to Rock Band 4. Additionally they did themselves no favours with the pricing.

Rock Band 4 + Guitar = £110

Guitar Hero Live + Guitar = £85

I'm not sure what Madcatz were expecting from Rock Band 4. The game was clearly aimed at the fans who didn't want to lose all that DLC content.

Isn't the stand alone drums almost the same price as the band in a box bundle?

What were they thinking?
 

maxiell

Member
They have too many IPs that they are not leveraging. They should have had a lot more ready for PS4 and Xbox One by now.
 

Meier

Member
Holy fuck. I don't keep a close eye on my stocks since they're just kinda there to me. I should have got out on this one. I've had it since $11 (a long ride)... should have taken the money around $40 when I had a chance. Bruuuutal.
 

Breakbeat

Banned
All things considered, Acti will probably be fine. They have CoD, Blizzard, and now MLG to support them. I don't see King.com bringing them anything near what could be called an ROI though.
 

Interfectum

Member
Holy fuck. I don't keep a close eye on my stocks since they're just kinda there to me. I should have got out on this one. I've had it since $11 (a long ride)... should have taken the money around $40 when I had a chance. Bruuuutal.

Yeah should have bailed when they were banking on Guitar Hero doing anything sales wise in 2015.
 

Trojan

Member
I can imagine some Activision exec screaming at Bungie over the phone to do whatever they have to do and get an expansion out this year.

More like this has been happening the last year and they wanted the previous Bungie CEO out before this conference call.
 

Glix

Member
Forget Acti, whats amazing to me is analysts inability to forecast fatigue.

I mean, Skylanders has burned itself out SO BADLY AND IS HAS VERY VERY STIFF COMPETITION NOW. Everyones kids are playing Lego Dimensions (anecdotal)

I wouldn't have forecast a huge drop or anything, but to not see it coming is just insane.
 

Alvarez

Banned
The Activision side of the business was 70 percent of revenues, while Blizzard was 22 percent. (Other was 8 percent). Blizzard’s revenues in the quarter were $459 million, down from $531 million a year ago. Activision’s revenues were $1.5 billion, flat compared to a year ago. Activision Blizzard stopped breaking out World of Warcraft subscriber numbers, but the drop in Blizzard’s revenue suggests that the number must be falling still.

Oh my, what a scandal!
 

Zomba13

Member
It sucks that both plastic instrument music games did poorly, both the one that stayed the same and didn't try anything new and the one that completely changed.

At least RB4 did come out and let me transfer most of my songs over. I'm still super pissed (mainly at myself) that my copy of 3 on the 360 arrived right after they stopped accepting RB2 transfer codes.


I can definitely see Skylanders fatigue happening just like Tony Hawk Fatigue and Guitar Hero Fatigue and whatever other franchise they've run into the ground fatigue.
 

Trojan

Member
Forget Acti, whats amazing to me is analysts inability to forecast fatigue.

I mean, Skylanders has burned itself out SO BADLY AND IS HAS VERY VERY STIFF COMPETITION NOW. Everyones kids are playing Lego Dimensions (anecdotal)

I wouldn't have forecast a huge drop or anything, but to not see it coming is just insane.

It's legit tough to forecast fatigue. I would have though Call of Duty would have seen a steep sales decline 1-2 years ago, but BLOPS 3 still crushed it this year. It's not just the frequency of releases but also hugely impacted by how fresh devs can keep the properties.
 

10k

Banned
Isn't this like the Activision cycle? Something gets really popular and they milk it while it's hot for 5 years until apathy sets in and people don't care anymore?

Tony Hawk, Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, Skylander's etc.

Luckily after advanced warfare slowed down in sales and debut sales, black ops III brought it back to normal sales levels.
 
Q

Queen of Hunting

Unconfirmed Member
stop with the madcatz misleading bullshit

they even said in their pr note rock band did better than they thought it was the other shit that didnt
 

Ridley327

Member
Disney Infinity is also down and Warner hasn't been talking up how great LEGO Dimensions did, so I suspect we have at least one too many series right now.

That said, Warner said they intend to be releasing expansions to Dimensions through Fall 2016, so I suspect they're not releasing a new game this year.

Skylanders is going in with a cartoon this year in an attempt to remedy the other part of your sentiment.

I will say it is somewhat humorous that the only company that seems to be seeing a big boon from TTL in the past year has been Nintendo, and they're inarguably the least game-oriented figures on the market. We'll see how 2016 pans out for them in that regard, as the Smash line will finally wrap up and we already have a sense that the Animal Crossing figure line is a big disappointment, though the cards being successful might make up for that.
 

massoluk

Banned
Common sense speaking, if I'm to collect toy-to-life figures, I would collect Disney/Marvel's or Nintendo's, not Spyro and friends. Skylanders was the only game in town for a long time. How are the others doing comparatively?
 

Chastten

Banned
Well, not surprising.

The Toys-2-Life genre is past its prime already if my local toystores are anything to go by. Constant deals on everything Skylanders and Inifinity, and even Lego has seen some discounts already. Only amiibo seem to not drop in price but those had far less shelfspace to begin with.

Music games have been dead since like 2009. Releasing a new game without any promotion whatsoever is never a good idea, wonder why they did it? Maybe they never had any faith in it or something?
 
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