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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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Nictel

Member
I think it will do a lot better than the WiiU but won't reach Xbox/PS numbers. So about ~20 million lifetime.

Disclaimer: if it fully replaces the 3DS and gets the next pokemon/monster hunter games I expect it to do about 3-4 times better.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
I can't stop laughing. I must have missed something. This is a game they announced or something else. People will actually have to pay for this?
The sad thing is, people testing it seem to have a lot of fun with it, it's getting good previews. Just like Nintendo was stupid not to include the pictionary wario ware game with every Wii Unit sold - such a good showcase -, they designed the most advanced non VR motion controllers, no one will experience. Tens of thousands at most will pay for 1, 2 Switch.

Giving it for free to all owners would increase value perception, customer satisfaction and exposure to the stuff they spent years on. Nintendo, how come can you be so stupid, again?
 

Juno

LIAR and a FELON
To focus the question in the OP a bit more, do folks have specific predictions about exactly when/how this chart (Amazon's current 'Best Sellers in Video Games' Chart) will change, over time?

What will this chart look like a few days from now? What will it look like a few weeks from now?

More importantly, why are Zelda BOTW Master Edition 3 & 4 in that chart... they don't even have a price - how can you preorder?!?

Is this common for Amazon charts....
 

seantos

Neo Member
I honestly think this is the worst hardware reveal I have ever seen. It's that bad when you weigh everything.

I am tempted to agree, but are we really saying this is worse than the surprise Sega Saturn Launch that went on to launch exclusively as certain retail stores?
 

prwxv3

Member
Do we know the specs yet? It feels as if nintendo is trying to do both and bombing at both

Too weak to be a home console, too big to be a portable device. Its an absolute fools errand to expect people around the world to take this with them on their day to day. Why even try if it sacrifices home console benefits?

It just feels as if they dont have the specs to go through with a hybrid device and now Im regretting wanting something that does both

I want a 4DS device and I want a home console. Im not seeing how they can work together.

I also think its crazy that Nintendo is launching completely out of sync with its competitors

How on earth are they going to convince buyers to pick a Switch over a PS4? When the PS4 has a huge library and is selling at $300?

what happens if Sony drop the price of the slim and the pro by 50 bucks later this year?
 

Calm Killer

In all media, only true fans who consume every book, film, game, or pog collection deserve to know what's going on.
At this point no. I don't believe it will do well at all. Reasons Below:

1. Cost to high. $249.99 would have made a difference.
2. Accessories cost to much. $70 for a controller?
3. 32 GB of storage? So I have to buy a SD card for more storage. More $$$
4. Online cost money. Not a big deal but, do I have to pay for the free games later?
5. Launch titles are meh. I can get Zelda on WiiU, why buy a new console for that?
6. Hardware is lacking, so the price should reflect that.

So It would cost me $490 for one game, a SD card, the system and a pro controller. For that much I can get a Scorpio (most likely) and I already have games and controllers for it.
 

Ogawa-san

Member
People think the only platform from now on to receive first/second party Nintendo games plus exclusives like Monster Hunter, (inexplicably) SMT5 and future others will be a failure?

They could've released it for $400.
 

TI82

Banned
It will sell decently at launch with the more extreme fans. The more realistic fans such as me are waiting on games and price drops. Thus, it will Bomba overtime until it drops.
 
giphy.gif


It's a game
This is me trying to decide if I should buy a Switch at launch. Each ball represents $100 CDN.
 

Nzyme32

Member
Holy fuck, lol

HAHAHAHA - yep, Halo-killer!

As this is just one small mini-game of many, comparing a party game to a generic bland overly prescribed shooter. Chances are I would be having more fun with others playing such a party game than the latest Halo games - easily.
 
I think the Nintendo model of relying on first party exclusives is no longer viable.

There's no way they could single handedly supply enough games by themselves, who knows when those third party exclusive games are going to come out... 2 maybe 3 years later?
 

catbrush

Member
I think Switch will be a success because of Zelda and Pokemon, despite how lukewarm the presentation made me feel. Most non-gamers I talked to said they would get a Wii U when Zelda releases. It's sure to be a system seller like Twilight Princess was.

Pokemon will be a huge system seller also.

Those two games are enough to put Switch ahead of Wii U at the very least.

"HD rumble" could make the system a massive success, depending on how amazing it turns out to be. It's hard to gauge from the video without trying it for myself. If it really
makes you say wow
, it could be infectious at parties.
 
I think GAF is underestimating how many more people are excited about the Switch than the Wii U and are aware of its existence prior to launch.

Nintendo's marketing has been on point thus far with the Switch. Everyone is clear about what it is: new console, works as both a home station and portable.

This is a far, far cry from "Is it an addon? Wii University? lulz."

This is a post Pokemon Go / Mario Run Nintendo. They're doing well with getting their name out there now. They will put that 1, 2, Switch game on Jimmy Fallon and he will giggle like a little boy and sales will be much, much stronger than Wii U year one.

The "bad marketing" aspect of the Wii U was always overblown. Yeah Nintendo fucked up the marketing but at the end of the day he product was simply unappealing. I fail to see what someone who did not want a Wii U would see in this. Yes Nintendo's brand is huge, but it's one thing to play on people's nostalgia when you are trying to sell them on a free to play mobile game that runs on their existing device, versus selling them on a $300 dedicated video game device by showcasing the same kind of motion control mini game stuff that people rejected 5 years ago.
 
Lol,
If the rumors are true that at E3: Sony has exclusive rights to monster Hunter 5, and Xbox has a time exclusive deal for Sonic. Look out!!!! Lol. Just have Bethesda announce and release elder scrolls 6 around the same time as Skyrim Switch.
 
I honestly think this is the worst hardware reveal I have ever seen. It's that bad when you weigh everything.
You know, when they started with the price and I thought "damn, that's too high" and then they said they would showcase games I though "well, they're about to blow our minds and then the price won't be so bad" and... well... I mean, sure, Zelda looked good, but pretty much everything else (for me) was "wtf is this" (1 2 switch/arms), "son I am disappoint" (Xenoblade animu), "eh, that looks ok but not my thing" (mario/splatoon), etc. Nothing they showed (again, with the exception of Zelda) was interesting to me.

I can't imagine what my reaction would have been if they had withheld the price until the end. Like the worst "ta-da!" ever.
 

seantos

Neo Member
Did you see some of the speakers who went on stage they were straight up confused as to what was going on.
It did have a certain Konami 2010 vibe didn't it. The moment someone walked out dressed up in a costume and talking in character as a squid scientist in a professional system launch event was the moment the conference jumped the shark for me.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
More importantly, why are Zelda BOTW Master Edition 3 & 4 in that chart... they don't even have a price - how can you preorder?!?

Is this common for Amazon charts....

No, Die hard Nintendo fans are trying to do damage control when not understanding the system is not fucking available for preorder on amazon right now. It's available at Bestbuy, Gamestop and target currently if there' s more someone update me.

The reason it's on the chart is it's being viewed and people are putting their email notifications in to get notified when it becomes available which is traffic that I guess amazon's system tracks.
 

redcrayon

Member
I think it's going to have a really rough first ten months or so (with Zelda struggling to carry it in the west but Splatoon providing a large boost in Japan), before picking up speed in the autumn.

Once the usual handheld evergreen titles (Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Monster Hunter) get announced to stand alongside the home console heritage titles like Splatoon, Mario, Xenoblade etc, we'll have a better idea of whether merging their hardware, software and customer bases was a good plan or not.
 
Nintendo needs to clean house.

I don't know who the decision-makers are, but they're either receiving bad research or getting good information and simply interpreting it wrong.
 

Alucrid

Banned
when they stood up on stage and explained the controls for Arms, who is that for? casuals probably don't care. hardcore people probably already noted how the controls work from the trailer. other than to fill air, who thinks that's a good idea?
 

seantos

Neo Member
People think the only platform from now on to receive first/second party Nintendo games plus exclusives like Monster Hunter, (inexplicably) SMT5 and future others will be a failure?

They could've released it for $400.

Are we still sure monster hunter is exclusive and even coming to the switch? I still don't understand how Nintendo is letting them launch a new monster hunter on 3ds less than 2 weeks after the launch of the switch if they are still partners.
 
I see Nvidia releasing this for $100 less and think what might have been;

https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/shield/shield-tv/

3 hour battery means Switch is useless as a handheld so why not just forego the tablet, ship it as a console and then do a lower powered handheld SKU with decent battery life (thanks to die shrinks/lower clocks) further down the line?

Not many people, other than us hardcore gamers, are worried about having to play mobile for more than 3 hours. Seriously. It's a non-issue. And frankly it was completely unrealistic to ever expect anything more when considering what's being powered.
 
Jesus christ I must have missed this snippet. Not even a pack-in, they want people to buy this.

They're insane.

I think they are seriously looking for a company to absorb them. I'm not being salty or snide either. I'm saying this as someone who invested in this company. You can't pay people salaries in the millions of dollars to be this or of touch.

You sell Nintendo to the likes of Disney or Apple. It Wii make some money again.
 
To focus the question in the OP a bit more, do folks have specific predictions about exactly when/how this chart (Amazon's current 'Best Sellers in Video Games' Chart) will change, over time?

What will this chart look like a few days from now? What will it look like a few weeks from now?

That best seller means nothing you can't even preorder on amazon right now, no preorders were put up for the actual system. It's just the amount of activity to those pages for those items.

Shows people are interested that's all.

Is that so? My understanding is that pre-orders were open for some time, long enough to sell through the quantities that were available for pre-order, and to thereby make an impact on the chart. Is that incorrect?

If it's correct, the question would be, simply: how long, exactly, do you expect this to last? And when exactly would you expect the Switch to come back down to Earth (as measured by this particular chart)?
 
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