AHA-Lambda
Member
What will it mean for Nintendo if this ends up being another WiiU?
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
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SuperLeviathan
Member
This, unless Nintendo does a sweeping 3DS-style course correction.
That would require Pokemon, an absolute blowout at E3, and the next Wii Sports.
EDIT: Oh, and a Super Bowl ad wouldn't hurt.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
I think this is actually selling Odyssey short. Or at the least, it's a comparison that's coming at the game from the wrong direction. 3D Land even from an aesthetic standpoint was very much a familiar Mario. I think the new, jazzed up look that Odyssey is providing has some real chance to set imaginations on fire.
I do agree that the current lineup of the system doesn't really put Odyssey in a great position where it can set those imaginations on fire though since it looks like the momentum of the system will drop out around the fall actually.
Crimsonsky
Member
Guess it depends on the measure for success? There will be moving goal posts to make everyone wrong. To prevent that, I will say that my measure for success would be it selling at least half of what the Wii sold. If I had to guess right now I do not think the Switch will meet that goal.
With significant changes it might get there but my confidence is very low.
With significant changes it might get there but my confidence is very low.
I think it will probably do kinda shitty at first, but after a price cut or two and Pokemon comes out, I'm sure it will do just fine as a 3DS replacement. I don't think it will hold its ground in the console space, but that's not really why I'm interested anyways. I also think that the Switch being a handheld that plays actual console games means that Nintendo will probably just go handheld next gen if it proves true that that is where the sales are.
Arkam
Member
They will move forward with their plans unchanged.... to make 3rd 'WiiU'!!!!
It would be pretty bad for them. I would truly wonder if they could stay in the hardware business for the very first time.
I really don't think it will be a huge failure though. I honestly think they have a plan, and we don't even know the half of it.
Otakumegane
Member
Yeah the switch is a Japanese device first
Everything else is secondary. Personally I don't think this is the right call to make but oh well.
Everything else is secondary. Personally I don't think this is the right call to make but oh well.
I think it will be great for hardcore Nintendo fans but otherwise not have much of an audience. I think it will be a WiiU like console in terms of both hardware and software sales with sales struggling pretty early on after launch. I don't think 1,2 Switch or other family oriented games are going to take off at all. I imagine 1,2 Switch is going to sell worse than Nintendo Land. I could see a 3ds style emergency price cut at some point.
But Pokemon, Monster Hunter, and DQ could do wonders in Japan where I could see the Switch having the most success, relatively.
But Pokemon, Monster Hunter, and DQ could do wonders in Japan where I could see the Switch having the most success, relatively.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
I think they'd need to seriously reevaluate if they are going to stay in the hardware business.
"*New* Wii Switch for U"
orthodoxy1095
Banned
This console will be a phenominal hit like the pokemon go craze, kids will carry this thing outside and compete for fun games with addictive gameplay, the 8 players local game is a big thing you guys need to think about that more, still waiting for pre order in my country, I guess we are the same with japan, very excited with this thing.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
Much like Vic, this isn't a compelling argument for why kids would do this or why people would necessarily care about the 8 players.
butman
Member
Also they taking the luxury of tossing their golden egg chicken in 2018. (yeah the 3DS)
AdventureRacing
Member
I'm curious to see some actually predictions behind posts like these. It's all too easy to say 'if there isn't a major shift this will happen'. It's essentially just an out so that in future years when the prediction turns out horrendously wrong you can just fall back on the 'yeah but things changed dramatically'.
I'm thinking somewhere in the region of 40-50 million WW. Obviously with the limited info we have now it's hard to make accurate predictions at all. I think if Nintendo makes some good moves they could match the 3DS but based on recent history I don't have much confidence in Nintendo.
If anything I think the switch will sell out at launch and then have a slow first year until the holiday period. I think it will have a better 2018 as more of the big games release for the console and the SW lineup is a little more robust.
Japan will be somewhere around 15-20 million IMO. A drop from the 3DS but not a disastrous one (depending on future price I could see it getting close to the 3DS).
I really want Nintendo to be great and I'm buying a Switch at launch, but I don't think the system will do much better than the Wii U. It's between the Wii U and the GameCube.
I really hope there is another Nintendo handheld. It makes me sad looking at what will happen to Nintendo when their games have been a big part of my childhood. I love my 3DS. I love my GameBoy. I live Animal Crossing, Mario, Yoshi, and Zelda.
I'm just not confident in their direction as a company, and I think they acted too late to be relevant.
I really hope there is another Nintendo handheld. It makes me sad looking at what will happen to Nintendo when their games have been a big part of my childhood. I love my 3DS. I love my GameBoy. I live Animal Crossing, Mario, Yoshi, and Zelda.
I'm just not confident in their direction as a company, and I think they acted too late to be relevant.
wumster3000
Member
Depends how much devs treat it like a handheld vs console. There is a fine balance, but if it gets the support as all of Nintendo handhelds have had, it will be extremely successful. I'm extremely scared that it will get the Wii U treatment, but as I've stated, I get Nintendo consoles for 1st party experiences.
The convenient "local multiplayer anywhere" experience that the Switch will provide doesn't exist in the market and will be hard to reproduce by competitors. The platform totally can offer hints of uniqueness in a smartphone world. Same with the seamless hybrid functionality of the console.
I don't think so but it'll at least do better than Wii U
It might even pick up some serious steam if they can survive until they have holiday bundles for under $200
It is an extremely underwhelming home console but a legitimately impressive handheld
They definitely made a very smart decision launching early in the year to give time for course correction by the holidays but the lack of software is a pretty big problem.
Also what the fuck were they thinking by not including 1-2 switch with every console and what makes them think they can charge for online when they don't even have a party chat built into the system.
It might even pick up some serious steam if they can survive until they have holiday bundles for under $200
It is an extremely underwhelming home console but a legitimately impressive handheld
They definitely made a very smart decision launching early in the year to give time for course correction by the holidays but the lack of software is a pretty big problem.
Also what the fuck were they thinking by not including 1-2 switch with every console and what makes them think they can charge for online when they don't even have a party chat built into the system.
It's not a good post because it only sees it as a successor to the wii u but not the 3ds.
The sales will be stronger but warning bells should go off if it does as well as 1st year wii u and 3ds combined. Nintendo had to do a quick price drop for the 3ds for underperforming so much.
Fair point. To me it's a missed opportunity that Nintendo did not choose to use SD instead of microSD. We would have more choices, just like PS4 if it actually have space for 3.5" HDD. We will be stuck with 2TB for the PS4 for a long time.
PotionBleue
Member
Peléo;228500965 said:
3DS was at 60 million as of September 2016, and is probably above NES now.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html
neurosisxeno
Member
I'm expecting N64 numbers. At best. If the software is absolutely amazing and third party support holds out. But I'm not optimistic about either happening, and would not be surprised if it does GC numbers.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
GTAV still gets mainstream media and gossip blog coverage. It really hurt Nintendo not having more current megahit phenomenon games other than Mario, Skyrim 4th rerelease and the already-everywhere Minecraft. It makes the console look that much more barren to the Western buying audience. At least show off your Pokemon even if its a short ways away.
Movalpolos
Banned
Surely Super Mario Run will get people in the mood to spend over $350 to play a new Mario game!
boiled goose
good with gravy
Also what I expect. Paid online will kill any spark of hope for the system when it neuters the online communities of the 3 popular games.
Suburban Thug
Member
Dude...no. It's not a 3DS successor or a handheld. Nintendo has said as much; are they wrong and you're right or is it the other way around?
https://www.google.com/amp/www.game...-not-a-3ds-replac/1100-6446967/?client=safari
Not sure how you think the sales will be stronger when there's a laughably weak launch line up, overpriced yet underpowered hardware released mid gen, expensive periphials/controllers, bad battery life...don't these missteps seem familiar? This thing screams Wii U 2.0 to me but now with paid online garunteed to be far worse than what anyone else offers.
And no, Pokémon alone won't save it. Just like nothing could save the Wii U once they dug their grave. I was hyped for Switch before the conference but Nintendo has me in full blown skeptic mode now.
RipperGrim
Member
I'm really not sure how well it's going to do, casual market doesn't even seem to know it exists. Nintendo need to ramp up the marketing a lot more than they have been doing. Honestly they just need to announce a pokemon game asap, Go has already proven there's a hunger for it and this time they can make it an actual game.
OrbitalBeard
Member
if Nintendo puts their entire software muscle behind Switch and it sells Wii U numbers, Nintendo will re-examine their entire business model.
It seems to me that it will be a repeat of the Wii U. It's possible that it will sell slightly larger numbers, earlier due to less brand confusion this time around.
I just don't see who they're aiming at with this console. I've been gaming since the Atari 2600 was contemporary so I've pretty much seen it all. This is maybe the first Nintendo console that I see as just completely tone deaf to the market that exists right now.
Let's tick off its various issues -
Low Graphical Horsepower - Easy 3rd party ports are unlikely, contributing to droughts (again)
Low Battery Life - 2.5 hours or less is likely for console style games
High Cost of Entry - $300 is quite a bit to be asking in a world where PS4 Slim is 200-some dollars with a GoTY game bundled
High Accessory Cost - The Pro controller doesn't even have a headphone jack and it's $70. That segues to...
Low Storage - Customers are expected to buy a MicroSD card if they want to expand the memory of the system from 32G. The storage is just far too low for a device that they are billing as a home system "at heart..."
Paid Online Connectivity - Nintendo is going to have to prove that it can create an online marketplace and environment for multi-player gaming such as Playstation Plus and Xbox Live. I can't see them living up to that expectation. That segues to...
No Built-In Voice Chat - They want customers to pay for their online service but don't even provide voice chat. XBox Live had that in 2005? Earlier?
Continued Focus on Gimmicky Motion Controls - Has the video game market not shown that it doesn't have an interest in motion control? Why does Nintendo continue to pursue it?
The biggest, A1 problem is that... there is no indication that the software droughts that Nintendo is notorious for are anywhere near being resolved. 3rd party software developers aren't going to be able to fill the gaps because there's such a stark difference in GPU power between the two other contemporary consoles and Switch. I can just see large 3rd party development houses passing on the system altogether. That leaves Nintendo trying to support a hardware platform by themselves and it has been shown over and over again that they cannot do that.
The idea that they're going to wholly merge their internal 3DS/mobile development and console development houses into focusing on this one device is not accurate, IMO. This device is not going to replace the 3DS.
I just don't see who they're aiming at with this console. I've been gaming since the Atari 2600 was contemporary so I've pretty much seen it all. This is maybe the first Nintendo console that I see as just completely tone deaf to the market that exists right now.
Let's tick off its various issues -
Low Graphical Horsepower - Easy 3rd party ports are unlikely, contributing to droughts (again)
Low Battery Life - 2.5 hours or less is likely for console style games
High Cost of Entry - $300 is quite a bit to be asking in a world where PS4 Slim is 200-some dollars with a GoTY game bundled
High Accessory Cost - The Pro controller doesn't even have a headphone jack and it's $70. That segues to...
Low Storage - Customers are expected to buy a MicroSD card if they want to expand the memory of the system from 32G. The storage is just far too low for a device that they are billing as a home system "at heart..."
Paid Online Connectivity - Nintendo is going to have to prove that it can create an online marketplace and environment for multi-player gaming such as Playstation Plus and Xbox Live. I can't see them living up to that expectation. That segues to...
No Built-In Voice Chat - They want customers to pay for their online service but don't even provide voice chat. XBox Live had that in 2005? Earlier?
Continued Focus on Gimmicky Motion Controls - Has the video game market not shown that it doesn't have an interest in motion control? Why does Nintendo continue to pursue it?
The biggest, A1 problem is that... there is no indication that the software droughts that Nintendo is notorious for are anywhere near being resolved. 3rd party software developers aren't going to be able to fill the gaps because there's such a stark difference in GPU power between the two other contemporary consoles and Switch. I can just see large 3rd party development houses passing on the system altogether. That leaves Nintendo trying to support a hardware platform by themselves and it has been shown over and over again that they cannot do that.
The idea that they're going to wholly merge their internal 3DS/mobile development and console development houses into focusing on this one device is not accurate, IMO. This device is not going to replace the 3DS.
If Switch doesn't sell 15-20 million in Japan alone, we are in a really bad situation for console gaming, if you care about Japanese games or Nintendo games. That is, if it doesn't outsell Wii U worldwide in Japan alone. Bad for Japan as that'd be portables falling off like home consoles have; bad for Nintendo as Japan makes up a full third of 3DS sales and is a territory where that device has outsold the PS2. Not saying this can't happen, just saying it would be really bad.
Perhaps Nintendo could quickly release a 4DS (would require them already having it in development) to success where Switch failed, but I'm not sure how different a hypothetical 4DS would be to the Switch as a handheld. Weaker, cheaper, smaller, no HDMI out, and able to have full touch screen controls mandatory? Idk. Then we have Nintendo trying to prop-up Switch and do 4DS at the same time, i.e. not an ideal situation and the two would also compete as handhelds. Switch revision makes more sense, but then the question is how close could the device approach the hypothetical 4DS while remaining compatible with all Switch software.
Moreover, perhaps Switch failing in Japan just means that there is no room anymore for dedicated gaming handhelds with 0 library and install base, which is the true face of the darkness that could be Switch's failure.
EDIT: I do think if there is no room for a Nintendo handhold, there is less room for a competitor's handheld. Consider PSP3. It would probably be a lot like the Switch in specs, with Switch going the luxury handheld route. But it wouldn't have Pokemon or Mario or Kart or Smash or Splatoon.
...
I'm hoping for something like 30-45 million worldwide. Wouldn't be surprised if it were more like 20-25, but I'd be quite sad and a bit surprised if it were to do Wii U numbers. I'd also be surprised if it did 50+ million. That would be handhelds picking up in the West again or hybrids finding a new market, which would be awesome but I'm not holding my breath.
Perhaps Nintendo could quickly release a 4DS (would require them already having it in development) to success where Switch failed, but I'm not sure how different a hypothetical 4DS would be to the Switch as a handheld. Weaker, cheaper, smaller, no HDMI out, and able to have full touch screen controls mandatory? Idk. Then we have Nintendo trying to prop-up Switch and do 4DS at the same time, i.e. not an ideal situation and the two would also compete as handhelds. Switch revision makes more sense, but then the question is how close could the device approach the hypothetical 4DS while remaining compatible with all Switch software.
Moreover, perhaps Switch failing in Japan just means that there is no room anymore for dedicated gaming handhelds with 0 library and install base, which is the true face of the darkness that could be Switch's failure.
EDIT: I do think if there is no room for a Nintendo handhold, there is less room for a competitor's handheld. Consider PSP3. It would probably be a lot like the Switch in specs, with Switch going the luxury handheld route. But it wouldn't have Pokemon or Mario or Kart or Smash or Splatoon.
...
I'm hoping for something like 30-45 million worldwide. Wouldn't be surprised if it were more like 20-25, but I'd be quite sad and a bit surprised if it were to do Wii U numbers. I'd also be surprised if it did 50+ million. That would be handhelds picking up in the West again or hybrids finding a new market, which would be awesome but I'm not holding my breath.
I think they can have a pretty good success if they truly capitalize on the console & handheld teams all focused on a single piece of hardware strategy.
If you combine all the games from Wii and DS (or Wii U and 3DS), that equals a monster lineup for a single system. Nintendo can single-handedly support a system IMO.
how exactly will this play out though? Will there be obvious "handheld" games released for Switch that retail for $40 vs stuff like Zelda @ $60? I think they SHOULD do that as opposed to worrying about whether a game is premium enough to sell on Switch.
Nintendo will ride a wave of success for the first few months (March/April/May). I think to have a strong 2017 they then need to announce at E3 two or so* more Nintendo developed games that will release by the end of the year and also make sure Odyssey releases this year.
*or one significant new game and a handful of Wii U ports
If you combine all the games from Wii and DS (or Wii U and 3DS), that equals a monster lineup for a single system. Nintendo can single-handedly support a system IMO.
how exactly will this play out though? Will there be obvious "handheld" games released for Switch that retail for $40 vs stuff like Zelda @ $60? I think they SHOULD do that as opposed to worrying about whether a game is premium enough to sell on Switch.
Nintendo will ride a wave of success for the first few months (March/April/May). I think to have a strong 2017 they then need to announce at E3 two or so* more Nintendo developed games that will release by the end of the year and also make sure Odyssey releases this year.
*or one significant new game and a handful of Wii U ports
LordRaptor
Member
Are we still pretending the stated battery life floor is now the optimal battery life ceiling?
also this is tangential to the Switch, but I truly think Nintendo could have a SMASH hit if they developed a Netflix like service for Virtual Console.
Set their online services @ $10/month. That includes online play and access to the Virtual Console library. This needs to be designed in a way though to not be tied to the Switch so when there is new hardware in the future they don't need to start from scratch once again.
I really think a big part of the Wii's initial success was the VC and it seems like Nintendo doesn't realize that.
Set their online services @ $10/month. That includes online play and access to the Virtual Console library. This needs to be designed in a way though to not be tied to the Switch so when there is new hardware in the future they don't need to start from scratch once again.
I really think a big part of the Wii's initial success was the VC and it seems like Nintendo doesn't realize that.
The Artisan
Member
the switch will be a huge goddamn success.
LordRaptor
Member
The reason I am a continued subscriber to Netflix and not a lapsed subscriber to Netflix, is that Netflix continually add new content that make that ongoing subscription worthwhile.
I don't see how Nintendo could feasibly do that, or why someone who had played every title on there worth playing (which is a finite target to reach for any individual) would maintain a subscription.
PinkyMonkey
Banned
Without 3rd party games, how are people expecting it to do better or even close to Gamecube?
I believe Switch will end up being a niche console just like Wii U.
I believe Switch will end up being a niche console just like Wii U.
Save files. You lapse for more than 4 months, they reset your saves.
Yes, Lucifer speaking?
Also you'd keep the service if you had games you could play online coming up on the current hardware, plus the catalogue lifespan of a video games service is longer than a videos' one. A movie keeps you busy 1-3h long, a game can take you months to complete. Also "Hey can you dig up that old Dargon Ball game we used to play on Super Nes? I still need that rematch?" "Yes. Yes I can."
Gotta work that narrative!
I'm guessing that 2.5 hours is while playing Zelda, with full rumble enabled, wi-fi on, and at max brightness.
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