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March Launch Pros
Product is on the shelves
You can launch Zelda simultaneously
Less busy shopping season means lower initial sales expectations
Gives people a chance to get accustomed to the Switch leading up to the shopping season
Gives smaller devs more attention instead of being overshadowed by 1st party games
Spaces out release calender of 1st party titles, less chance of being ignored by the earlier adopter
Weaker shopping season competitively compared to the fall

Fall Launch Pros
E3 available for hype, announcements
Longer dev time on several games, time for polishing
Substatially stronger launch lineup
Online at launch
Possibly media streaming and apps available at launch it at least closer to it
Stronger shopping season to bolster opening sales figures

 

[ngower]

No. Investors. Iwata's death pushed everything back several months.

 

[Crayon]

Just give it to me asap.

 

[UnemployedVillain]

If all the things in the Fall list are there by fall, despite a March launch, what's the problem? They've accomplished all the benefits of the Fall launch, plus have months of sales as well

 

[killatopak]

As much as I'd like to, no.

Switch is in the limelight right now and releasing in fall would coincide with Scorpio.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Too close for comfort near Scorpio.

 

[Neoxon]

Nah, the Switch would have to compete with the Scorpio if it launched during the Holidays.

 

[hoserx]

It may have made a bit of sense to have a more well-rounded launch lineup.....but damn I want it and March 3rd sounds pretty good to me. They'll sell enough of them now to get the ball rolling and then try to make a push for the Holidays. I hope they succeed.

 

[Doorman]

No.

You forgot the con that waiting until the fall means that outside of maybe Breath of the Wild, Nintendo would be releasing almost literally nothing at all until the Switch comes out. Are they supposed to just not make any money for 7-8 months?

Everything else that would have been there in the fall will still be there in the fall, so if people want those games and services by then, nothing's lost. Consoles aren't solely defined by their launch month.

 

[Kyzer]

well whats better

a small number of sales at a premium to early adopters and then a really strong holiday season

or a really strong holiday season and not having that revenue for the beginning of the year

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

More competition for people's dollar in the fall.

Also, buying ad space is much more expensive which plays into the marketing budget.

Also also, momentum.

Its more profitable to enter a holiday season with several million consoles sold before you drop the heavy hitters. It's one of the reasons they were desperate enough to slash the 3ds price before Mario kart in '11

 

[Yarbskoo]

No because I want to play Zelda on it.

 

[Adam Prime]

March is a soft launch, for early adopters. I'm sure Holiday 2017 they will make a strong push as the "official launch" and will have a lot of games by that point that are worth having.

3/2/17 are for early adopters. And we all know what happens to early adopters....

 

[AdanVC]

Nintendo will never rush something as important as a home console release. I trust in this fellas that the Switch is more than ready to launch right now, meaning, in 6 more weeks.

 

[SporeCrawler]

no. they can softlaunch now and ramp up word of mouth, production and the lineup until holiday 2017 for ideal sales

 

[kunonabi]

I'd have preferred a fall launch so they could have left the wii u version of Zelda alone and spent the extra time altering it for the switch. Losing all those gamepad features for launch "parity" is bs.

 

[jholmes]

Absolutely. The investors just want to see mobile games and if Nintendo can't compete with the Xbox 1.5, they can't compete at all. No reason to release this a month after the actual unveiling with Bomberman as the big exclusive.

EDIT: What the hell is a "soft launch"? You make it sound like Nintendo is doing a bad job on purpose to make the Switch look more impressive in hindsight nine months later or something.

 

[webster1]

I believe it would have been a November launch if not for iwata, they like froze for 3 months as a company for mourning and restructuring. When you have two senior members running the company for several months you don't release anything new, when you have a new president you don't release something immediately either. You let the new structure get accustomed and then you go back to business as usual. The switch is using pre-pascal because it could have been announced before Pascal was...

 

[RMI]

no. with a fall launch they would have to immediately deal with holiday bundles from MS and Sony. They should have had Mario at Launch, but AT LEAST they have Zelda.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

3/2/17 are for early adopters. And we all know what happens to early adopters....

They get to enjoy things earlier than you do. You are envious.

 

[Captain Europe]

Nah, they can hype it up again in fall with games, things don't disappear after they release.

 

[bachikarn]

I'd only want them too if they could boost the power of it. Otherwise I'm fine with a soft launch with some games now, and let them trickle in later.

As a consumer, I don't see how a Fall launch benefits me better (assuming the hardware stays the same). Sure the first couple of months may be rocky, but I'd prefer a rocky Switch then no Switch.

 

[Cerium]

March is a soft launch, for early adopters. I'm sure Holiday 2017 they will make a strong push as the "official launch" and will have a lot of games by that point that are worth having.

3/2/17 are for early adopters. And we all know what happens to early adopters....

Ambassador programs!

 

[big_erk]

Zelda will tide me over until E3. If all goes well E3 will give me more reasons to be glad I got the system at launch.

 

[Drkirby]

Why? It will have the same amount of games by that point in theory if you delayed it, but it has the advantage of being on the market for 6 months by releasing now. Do you think negative press it will potentially get will outweigh the advantage of 6 extra months on market? Especially after systems like the PS3 and 3DS were able to bounce back after having lackluster launch years.

 

[psyfi]

Nah. I do think they should have waited till Mario Kart was ready, though. Another month and a half wouldn't have hurt anybody.

Zelda will tide me over until E3. If all goes well E3 will give me more reasons to be glad I got the system at launch.

Not interested in Mario Kart or Arms?

 

[Risette]

Ideally yes, but realistically no. They'd have another dead year of the Wii U wasting money away.

 

[funkystudent]

They really should have done a better job with 3rd parties.


No reason why they should wait until fall for tossed off ports like Skyrim and Fifa. That should have been a launch game. I hope we find out some day that Nintendo didnt send them dev kits until a few weeks ago or something because that is the only explanation I can think of.

 

[weekev]

No, I'm pretty sure they released when they did to offset manufacturing and development costs when they release their end of year finances to shareholders. Sitting on it till fall would have meant a loss overall but shifting 2 million units at $300 a pop will create more revenue to make their bottom line look healthier and not tank the share price.

 

[Vic]

FY 2016 ends in March, so no. The Switch had to be released this fiscal year to make up for the Wii U's lack of sales.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

From a software sense, yes.

In terms of mindshare and money? Nope! 3DS blew its load this year and there's no anchor for it. There's a small spattering of software here and there, but Fire Emblem/Fire Emblem Musou was not going to keep that thing in anyone's mind.

It should have launched last fall, but my suspicion at the time was that Zelda was not ready. Now we know that not only was Zelda not ready, but that the ensuing drought would have lasted into the summer. So nothing was ready.

Now they're kind of stuck. If they're going to launch it before summer, they might as well release it in FY2017. But that also means only one game is really ready and the next heavy hitter isn't until summer.

Bad situation all around.

 

[FrankWza]

Its the end of the japanese business year isnt it? They need the numbers now not come fall.

 

[Storm Kyleis]

No, March is fine, and I believe the first party lineup (for what we know so far) is strong for the first year.

But maybe they should have sent the devkits earlier to third party developers. It's going to be a long wait for Skyrim, Stardew Valley, Yooka-Laylee, Dark Souls and whatnot.

 

[PopcornMegaphone]

With consumers you get one chance to make a good first impression. I think by waiting they could make a better impression.

 

[Lord of Ostia]

I think it's fine launching in March. You have to remember that the console isn't launching with a big first-party other than Zelda on purpose. Mario Kart is probably ready, and rumors suggest Mario Odyssey is, or could've been. Hell, even Splatoon 2 is far along, I'm willing to bet. If the console released in fall, they still weren't going to drop all those games at launch. So honestly a March launch, coinciding with Zelda, is probably the best move they could've made. Also it's the end of the fiscal year and they need that bump.

 

[MrFixIt]

No, because they can keep the hype going all year. Look at the fact that it's still before launch and these things are already sold out. They're going to keep that scarcity all of 2017. I would figure that stock is probably going to even out in mid summer. Get that stock early into stores and ride that out with mediocre restocks and it guarantees stock sell through. Wii U's sat on shelves for years. I bet they don't want that happening again. This way the Switch stays as a hot commodity.

 

[Machina]

They should have moved heaven and earth to have MariO ready for launch

 

[BlueTsunami]

Tax Season, mothafuckaaaaaaaa

(US relevant)

 

[kobu]

To everyone saying march is just a soft launch until the fall do you really think it's a good idea to launch a console before it's ready when your previous console just performed like the wii u did? This could bite them in the ass so hard if it doesn't work out.

 

[Mushroomer25]

They're fine launching in Spring. Having a huge launch lineup doesn't earn them much, since Zelda i enough to push immediacy of sales. Splatoon 2 gives them a popular multiplayer shooter to build buzz & awareness, then Mario for a major Fall push. E3 also fleshes out the Summer & Fall lineups.

Releasing now is an experiment in Apple-esque hardware hype. Short window between announcement & launch.

Considering pre-orders are sold out, it seems to be working fine.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Nope, 'cause I want to play Zelda, ARMS, and Splatoon 2 before fall.

 

[Some Nobody]

Definitely not. You gotta look at this more from the perspective of holiday preparation. Launching at the start of March means they've got seven whole months on the shelves at full price before November.

By that time, they can market the Switch at either a lower price, with a bundle, or both. And, ideally, they'll have:

- Zelda
- Splatoon
- MK 8 Deluxe
- ARMS
- Smash (probably)
- Fire Emblem Musou
- FIFA/NBA 2K
- Xenoblade 2
- Pokemon Stars (hopefully)
- Mario Odyssey

All ready to go. A whole host of titles, capable of satisfying a wide variety of gamers. If they manage to have all that going by Black Friday or Christmas, that'll be their best chance at standing up with the big boys.

Nintendo's made tons of mistakes lately, but launching in March is NOT one of them once you think about it.

 

[KingBroly]

Its the end of the japanese business year isnt it? They need the numbers now not come fall.

Lots of businesses end their Fiscal Year in March, not just Japan. Why? I dunno.


Wise time to release Switch? Not really, but I think they are making the most of it. I think it would've been a disaster if they released it last fall or this fall. Microsoft and Sony aren't going to release new hardware in March. It's a nice try by Nintendo to try and carve out a nice, new piece of real estate.

Software wise, it's thin like Wii U was, but it's going to look less thin since it should be over a 10 month period instead of 15 months when look at the first fiscal year of it. When you get to the fall it does seem like it's picking up quite a bit, assuming a lot of those releases hold.

 

[James Scott]

Not really. The line up is pretty solid. Would be weird to hold back BOTW, ARMS, MK8, and Splatoon 2 just to launch later.

 

[K.Jack]

This launch is Early Access.

I honestly feel that they are only launching in March, because Zelda is done and they can't afford to sit on it any longer.

 

[x17th]

Ironically releasing now is a good way to get "hardcore nintendo fans" out of the way so as to prepare themselves for the Holidays. By Fall, they shouldn't be getting out of stock as often as they could actually be. It also gives them a lot of time to fine tune things like the online, or reveal anything else exciting to make it something people want for the Holidays.

Examining the launch of PS4 and Xbox One both show that about 2 - 3 Million units were sold within the first 4 - 6 weeks after launch. They were also commonly out of stock. After that PS4 and Xbox One slowed until the subjectively better games started coming out. But usually the first 2 ish months of a console's release is usually because hardcore fans buy them.

 

[jholmes]

They're fine launching in Spring. Having a huge launch lineup doesn't earn them much, since Zelda i enough to push immediacy of sales. Splatoon 2 gives them a popular multiplayer shooter to build buzz & awareness, then Mario for a major Fall push. E3 also fleshes out the Summer & Fall lineups.

Releasing now is an experiment in Apple-esque hardware hype. Short window between announcement & launch.

Considering pre-orders are sold out, it seems to be working fine.

People keep talking about selling our pre-orders, but given that pre-orders keep rolling out in batches, it's entirely possible Nintendo is managing those pre-order limits to ensure maximum sales while still selling out (given recent history, some might even say that situation is likely).

There's also the undeniable fact that the Wii U sold out on pre-orders. This keeps getting hand-waved away in threads and I don't understand why.

 

[Maximus.]

And have nothing for months? Wouldn't make sense for the business and investors to have nothing until the fall. Nintendo had to release it and create some sales leading up to the holidays. It also gives the company the chance to create a holiday bundle or something to have a more compelling product during the holidays. The fall is stiff competition too, with big AAA releases and Sony and Microsoft having large bundles or discounts.

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

Imagine Smash, Zelda, Mario all launching with a new system spreading the months of October, November and December.
Yeah that doesn't sound helpful

 

[Panajev2001a]

Nintendo will never rush something as important as a home console release. I trust in this fellas that the Switch is more than ready to launch right now, meaning, in 6 more weeks.

I trust that it is rushed indeed .

Lack of titles, online in beta, what sounds like a half baked OS, etc...