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Wkd BO 0407-0917 - Baby & the Beast still Going In Style, auds con. to Ghost ScarJo
- Thread starter xaosslug
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Bobby Roberts
Banned
Man, Covenant has me curious. That marketing is... not all that great. But it's selling the shit out of the Xenomorph & the Facehugger. Is that gonna be enough to counteract the rapid cooling on Prometheus, which has not enjoyed much of a post-theatrical release warm glow at all?
Because as of right now, I don't know that I see it clearing 50 OW like Prometheus did. But "hey, we got the monsters you like back in this one" could make up that difference.
Because as of right now, I don't know that I see it clearing 50 OW like Prometheus did. But "hey, we got the monsters you like back in this one" could make up that difference.
Dead Prince
Banned
Did Shia movie get more wom?
Angelus Errare
Banned
Ghost in the L
I just think that you need to look overseas for something like Guardians rather than domestically.
The first film was already within $100M or so of the realistic maximum for its genre/franchise. The sequel may increase domestically, but probably not by a ton. This leaves oversees, and particularly Asia where the MCU stuff is strongest.
Asia is not known for their love of Space Operas. Rogue One and Star Trek Beyond both underperformed there versus expectations in the past year. Guardians wasn't big in Asia the first time around, not even compared to Ant Man or Strange. Now it also has to work against poor exchange rates.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Winner.
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
If Japan doesn't save GitS they gotta hold that L.
Prototype Viktor
Member
You only need like 2 hits to cover for like 6-9 losses
GitS opened this weekend in Japan, and was fighting to beat Sing in its 4th weekend there last I checked. You will probably get $10-15M out of Japan.
Beren the Empty-Handed
Member
The fact that this film is being made, and is supposed to kick off a multi-film series, is hilarious to me. I love the King Arthur stories, so if this is good I'll happily eat crow, but I'm really not seeing it.
GabeTheGrouch76
Member
Sony recently mentioned that they're thinking about selling both the film and TV divisions earlier this year. They do want to see how their summer films play out, though (particularly, if The Emoji Movie can be successful enough to spawn a franchise).
Oh god no why. ;_;
Was worried making Dom turned traitor would had caused the film to jump the shark for reviewers...
F4. Then he showed up again in F6.
You won't be the only one eating that horse.
I have no idea why Hollywood keeps trying to make a new King Arthur movie ever few years. Is it not obvious that people aren't interested?
UberTag
Member
Pretty damn impressive given the number of those theaters only having 1 or 2 screenings.
They should do King Arthur and the Knights of Justice
kunonabi
Member
I'm really glad to see it do well. My showing was pretty empty so I was worried.
Discotheque
Banned
Yeah Kong was far easier to sit through than Godzilla. Edwards even managed to make a star wars ensemble movie set in pre-new hope period boring as shit too. Pretty impressive in a bad way.
Really I think the crossover should go to Dougherty tho. I have a lot of faith in his Godzilla 2 being the best of the kaiju movies easy. And coming off of trick r treat and then krampus I get Joe Dante vibes from him.
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
I would like to just point out right now that, of 3 movies featured in the famous endless_trash.gif that have been releases so far (50 Shades, Power Rangers and now Smurfs), all 3 have RT scores below 50% and 2 of 3 wound up being Bombas.
hesrightyouknow.jpg
Here's an interesting article looking at the importance of China in the worldwide studio revenue of films that get released there. http://chinafilminsider.com/how-important-is-china-to-hollywoods-bottom-line/
The article found that China accounted for about $500M of the estimated $6.5B worldwide net revenue for the 32 pictures that had Chinese profit sharing deals. The biggest outlier were Warcraft (38% of its revenue from China), and TMNT 2 (15% of its revenue from China). Most of the rest made less than 5% of their worldwide revenue in China.
While we talk about China saving certain films, that is largely from a PR standpoint.
If I had to put money on one of those being fresh, I would either go with IT or Baywatch. I wouldn't be surprised if they were all rotten though.
The article found that China accounted for about $500M of the estimated $6.5B worldwide net revenue for the 32 pictures that had Chinese profit sharing deals. The biggest outlier were Warcraft (38% of its revenue from China), and TMNT 2 (15% of its revenue from China). Most of the rest made less than 5% of their worldwide revenue in China.
While we talk about China saving certain films, that is largely from a PR standpoint.
If I had to put money on one of those being fresh, I would either go with IT or Baywatch. I wouldn't be surprised if they were all rotten though.
If it skews more towards horror, I think it might do quite well. But yeah the marketing hasn't really sold the movie, and that's coming from someone who adores the franchise.
jack_package_200
Banned
Alien Covenant is an interesting case. A lot of people in my age group (millennials) thinks it looks like shit and will be just as bad as Prometheus. On the other hand, friends and family of mine who are over the age of 30 are actually excited for it/liked the trailers. I know thats entirely anecdotal.
I am really curious to see how well Alien: Covenant performs at the box office. Hope the movie is solid.
I am really curious to see how well Alien: Covenant performs at the box office. Hope the movie is solid.
Just out of curiosity, Ghost has overtaken Power Rangers in less than half that time, had a an international opening stronger or comparable to Ant-Man and will probably make twice or three times as much money as Power Rangers by only costing 10 millions more.
Power Rangers is a way more popular IP world wide, had similar or better reviews and no controversy and still made a third of the money on the international market. But somehow Ghost is the bomb, Scarlett has no star power. Which somehow is strange, when a live action anime can have the same numbers as Ant-Man. For example theaters around here are still very well booked with Ghost, while Power Rangers lost its audience in the first week. And Power Rangers is on TV for 20 years already around here, still Ghost blow it out of the water pretty much everywhere expect the US.
So if Ghost is a bomb, is Power Rangers a disaster of apocalyptic proportions? Also Ghost has past Ghostbusters on the international market probably by the end of the week.
That is absolutely fucking pitiful. Despite a largely solid, at best, US gross that worldwide number firmly puts Power Rangers in the outright bomb category.
I'm not sure that even toys sold that well. I think what was initially reported as a 'win' has now turned into a bitter loss for Lionsgate.
I definitely have Covenant in the 'underperform' category. I just cannot see any way that this film ends up being even remotely good.
I also feel like, despite all his talk of six films, Sir Ridley is jumping ship in this film by booking that kidnap drama at Sony/Imperative. There's a reason that his name was supposedly in the running for The Batman, you book your next film before the current one bombs.
Yes, Matt Reeves booked The Batman before his next Apes film comes out but he's not actually working on that until July, Scott's already casting his kidnap drama.
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
Yes.
Discotheque
Banned
Is it too early for apes projections? Really pulling for that one out all of the movies this summer (and Dunkirk) to do well
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Being what
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
same with the monster movies. Due to someone bringing up Van Helsing (2004) over in the 'movies you watched' thread of this month, I went ahead and rewatched it and it's still the best of all the attempts to remake any of them combined and it make a measly 300 million on a 165 million budget, with 150 of gross being US domestic. Granted, if it came out today I'm sure China would appreciate it a lot more for the great schlockfest it is, but the reality is that nobody is looking for ANOTHER attempt at ANY of these monster movies.
If Van Helsing can't do it, Robert DeNiro in straight-up drama can't do it, and even going low-budget and dirty with 'I, Frankenstein' or going higher level with Victor Frankenstein can't do it, it's time to call the patient on its actual state and declare it dead. Not undead, just dead.
But they are all public domain, so no licensing fees and a story that already works tend to get producers all excited. So that's why those keep coming back.
edit: I'm kind of jumping with joy from Power Rangers relatively bombing in that whole 'called it' Schadenfreude way. Also, that ad placement is like 'fuck this movie', so yeah.
Apes will do well. I don't really see it bombing unless it's shit. The last one made 200M dom / 700M tot, so even if it makes 2/3 of that, it still wouldn't be a bomb at all.
broncobuster
Banned
Shame for the BO is having both release week after week, and Apes a week after Spider-Man.
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
Bomba [bom-bah]
noun
A game, movie or other entertainment product that fails commercially.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
MHWilliams
Member
I liked it, but that's dead Dave.
ronaldthump
Member
ghosted in the cinemas.
Stop fighting it and accept our ways already.
If Bobby became the Sith lord of GAF, his first actions woukd be to ban the word Bomba and erase xaosslug's tag.
Sibersk Esto
Banned
I don't know why people are surprised to discover that Power Rangers really doesn't have an appeal beyond the nostalgia.
BOM-BA
Spaaaaaaaaace
Member
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I'm sorry, can't hear you. There's a shitpoor catchphrase dangling from your uvula.
Huh.
Okay.
Sure.
Nah.
I left this post alone earlier, because I was on my phone.
I'm curious where you are getting the Ant-Man comparison from though. Ghost in the Shell won't end up anywhere near Ant-Man overseas. That film finished with almost $340M in foreign gross.
On the surface, GitS' second weekend take overseas looks pretty good. However, $21.3M of that was China, so we're really looking at $20M for the remaining overseas territories. The film also opened in Japan ($3.2M estimate), India, and a handful of small territories this weekend. Given that last weekend was $40M overseas, that means that the holdover territories had a similar 60% drop to the domestic box office take.
Ghost in the Shell has no more major openings left ahead of it, and is showing poor legs. Given that Fate of the Furious is opening next weekend, it is also expected to have a rapid drop off in China (which was fueling this weekend's box office). If the film manages to avoid a total collapse elsewhere, you might end up with a $200M worldwide box office finish.
It will not finish with 2-3x the gross that Power Rangers manages worldwide. Power Rangers still has South Korea, China, and Japan left to open with, so even with modest grosses in all three, it has a decent shot at $150M+ when you factor in holdover business. Furthermore, if we are approaching this from a financial standpoint, Power Rangers will end up with about twice as much domestically as GitS will. As mentioned in the article about China I linked above, Domestic gross is still the most important factor.
On top of all of the above, Power Rangers wasn't really a success story, so I'm not sure why that is your measuring stick. It made enough for Lionsgate to offset their personal costs, but the overseas performance will do further damage to their ability to pre-sell larger films going forward.
SillyEskimo
Member
From the article in the OP
Meanwhile, the movie hit 124 million worldwide so it recouped its production budget already +14 million on top.
Meanwhile, the movie hit 124 million worldwide so it recouped its production budget already +14 million on top.
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