Support NeoGAF

[NOLA_Gaffer]

Mr. Pachter,

If I was interested in playing games on my PC, I'd buy a PC.

But I'm not interested in that.

Sincerely,
NOLA_Gaffer​

 

[oti]

The tech is already there but the business isn't.

 

[DMiz]

... I mean, I don't see how we can't already accomplish the "PC" part now.

People are already setting up machines in their living rooms and then playing on their PC, and quite a few games are getting steady PC ports. So this prediction that this will happen in 2-3 years, unless referring specifically to the casual market, is already 'late'.

As for phones... eh. There are still nuances to console gaming that the mobile market has yet to figure out, like dedicated controllers. Nobody wants to play a game like BoTW, for example, on a touch screen surface with no physical buttons.

Will we see expansion of streaming from machines to TVs with steadier video and less input lag? Probably. But we're not going to see that supplant console gaming, per se.

 

[Durante]

Depending on whether we can keep up Moore's law, and the development of battery technology, there is a chance that we will eventually have (almost) full computing device convergence, especially in the consumer space.

I really don't see it happening within a decade though.

 

[killroy87]

If he predicts it every few years, at some point he has to be correct.

 

[Gai Murakumo]

Oh Pachter never change. Console's are here to stay folks.

 

[Obliterator]

Some day yeah I would assume consoles will likely fade away.

It's a while off though. Maybe 20 years or so

 

[Charles Brandon]

Does this guy earn his living off this nonsense? It feels like I've been watching him do his "gaming's answer to a shit Nostradamus" act for at least a decade.

 

[Lingitiz]

I think the sentiment isn't wrong. His timetable is probably off and it depends on how tech progresses, but the traditional console market will likely change dramatically in 10, 15, 20 years time. That doesn't mean I think consoles will disappear, but we could get to the point where there might be only one player in the market rather than 3.

 

[vanx0]

haha well he did say the same thing before PS4/XBONE release... so no.

 

[ElRenoRaven]

lol this guy has been saying the same shit for years now. And he's not alone. All the analysts were down on the prospect of current gen and then the PS4 came out and became the fastest selling console ever.

I like Pachter. But dont listen to these guys.

Don't worry neither does anyone else. As said if anyone did we'd have had the end of consoles about 3 gens ago now.

 

[Courage]

How many times has he made this same prediction now? I don't know what's funnier, how many times he keeps repeating it throughout the years or the GAF threads that pop up every time he makes it.

 

[Kart94]

This but with consoles...

Why do we take what he says seriously.

 

[Tagyhag]

I think it depends on how good streaming gets in the future and the infrastructure of the US.

People forget that the majority of people that buy an Xbox or PS4 aren't your typical GAF users. You can look at the NPD for that.

If these people can get Call of Duty, MADDEN, FIFA, and GTA elsewhere for cheaper, I don't see why they wouldn't.

I doubt this happens in 10 years, but then again 2007-2017 had some crazy technological advancements.

 

[Breakage]

This assumes that everyone has a reliable high speed internet connection.

 

[JeremyEtcetera]

Taken from his latest episode.

Console software is gonna move off consoles. In the next two to three years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV. In the next 10 years you're gonna download to your phone and play on your TV.," he said.

What do you think?

I will believe this the exact day we reach a graphical cap on graphics cards, so that we aren't constantly needing to upgrade every handful of years to keep up. We have a long way to go until that happens.

Either that, or someone figures out a way to make PCs more easily customizable like Razer's modular PC project, which they still have not released(nor figured out) yet.

Also, phones are still terrible when it comes to controlling Console-like games. Don't get me started on mobile fighting games.

 

[Sephzilla]

PS4 is selling really well. XB1 is selling well (just not as well as the PS4). Switch is selling well. US government is trying to gut net neutrality which would make a digital only environment extremely nonviable. Clearly, we are on the path towards a no-console digital only future. #PachterLogic

 

[TheChewyWaffles]

Yes...it may. I may also win the lottery tomorrow.

 

[JordanN]

The console market is essentially the AAA market.

So it's not actually up to what the console makers decide, but what big third party companies do.

If Rockstar can successfully create a Grand Theft Auto game that doesn't need the Playstation or Xbox audience to survive then this spells trouble for MS & Sony. But for now, GTA can only survive off of those machines.

 

[Marcel]

Does this guy earn his living off this nonsense? It feels like I've been watching him do his "gaming's answer to a shit Nostradamus" act for at least a decade.

He made his place years ago by being a one of a few known analysts who speculates on video games. Flash forward to now and everyone is an armchair analyst on Twitter but even those types are probably more in touch than Michael Pachter.

 

[HvySky]

Wasn't everyone saying that consoles were on their way out before the current generation and then the PS4 sold through like an absolute monster? Seems like we go through this song and dance every single time.

 

[Izayoi]

Technology will continue to miniaturize and homogenize. I think his timeline is a little too aggressive to be realistic, but he does not have the wrong idea.

Gaming will become a service, much like music has, and how TV is fast becoming. It is inevitable.

 

[LordRaptor]

... I mean, I don't see how we can't already accomplish the "PC" part now.

People are already setting up machines in their living rooms and then playing on their PC, and quite a few games are getting steady PC ports. So this prediction that this will happen in 2-3 years, unless referring specifically to the casual market, is already 'late'.

It's almost like Michael Pachter doesn't really know much about the PC gaming market

 

[Principate]

But he says stuff on the internet. I saw him on gametrailers. The guy wears glasses.

edit: I actually don't know how accurate he is, he just gets way too much attention

This is what I mean.

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/michael-pachter

Ranked #4,048 out of 4,290 Analysts (#9,428 of 9,971 overall experts)
44% Success Rate (148 out of 336 successful ratings)
-4.2%Average Return

He's not amazing at what he does but he's well known.

 

[Obliterator]

I mean the main issue here is his timetable.

I legit don't know how the fuck he thinks the tech will be in place within 10 years to totally abandon consoles. It 100% will not happen

 

[Hari Seldon]

The OP left out the point that Pachter was trying to make, which was that console makers would have to offer more features if they didn't want the average consumer to just take the easiest option to playing COD, which will be using the console built into the TV (in 10-15 years).

We see this already with smart TVs. Why buy an Amazon Stick anymore when all the apps are just built into modern TVs?

 

[Jakoo]

The sales of the PS4 and the Switch seem to be saying otherwise, but OK.

I personally never see myself gaming off a PC. It's not to shit on PC gaming whatsoever, it's just not where I want to game.

 

[FonkyByNature]

In the next 2-3 years ? LOL, What the fuck ? Physical will still be there and consoles too. The man should pass that shit he's smoking, must be good.

In 10+ years ? maybe, but not in 2-3 years.

 

[GregLombardi]

There is no phone on the market, or projected to be on the market, that I want to play games on in the way he is describing. I am not saying it won't happen but the phone device and the dedicated gaming device still have separate markets, and I don't see how they are going to merge without some incredible leap forward in tech that makes sense for both devices ecosystems.

 

[shnurgleton]

Taken from his latest episode.

Console software is gonna move off consoles. In the next two to three years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV. In the next 10 years you're gonna download to your phone and play on your TV.," he said.

What do you think?

For Microsoft, yeah.

For Sony, maybe.

For Nintendo? Never.

 

[GamingPheasant]

I like his vision of the future for another reason. I'd like it if phones will have the power of a PC 10 years from now.

In a way, his two-to-three year prediction is already true: consoles are low-power PCs and people already download games to it to play on a TV.

 

[ASIS]

As long as the software doesn't die. I couldn't care less about what happens to consoles.

 

[franklyshankly]

The OP left out the point that Pachter was trying to make, which was that console makers would have to offer more features if they didn't want the average consumer to just take the easiest option to playing COD, which will be using the console built into the TV (in 10-15 years).

We see this already with smart TVs. Why buy an Amazon Stick anymore when all the apps are just built into modern TVs?

I guess I find it hard to believe TVs are ever going to have hardware inside that is on par with what a then-current console could do. Most customers don't want to pay 200-300 extra on their TV for some hardware they'll never use.

 

[kswiston]

Good luck setting up your holograph console on your phone in 15 years.

I don't necessarily think that gaming will transition to streaming from phones, but cloud streaming is eventually going to be where things go. Physical hardware is a pricey gamble that aims to lock you into a software ecosystem. If they can just sell you the software platform, why bother with dedicated hardware (outside of some accessories, like a controller)?

Right now connection speeds and bandwidth make that impractical.

 

[Trago]

The console market is essentially the AAA market.

So it's not actually up to what the console makers decide, but what big third party companies do.

If Rockstar can successfully create a Grand Theft Auto game that doesn't need the Playstation or Xbox audience to survive then this spells trouble for MS & Sony. But for now, GTA can only survive off of those machines.

That too. All the major casual AAA franchises thrive on consoles. If that content were to suddenly move to a cheaper and more convenient alternative, then yea, people would move on.

I don't see that happening anytime soon.

 

[McMoneyman]

I guess if you keep predicting it, eventually you will become right.

 

[Beegeous]

Man talks out of his ringpiece.

 

[DeathoftheEndless]

I agree. They'll all be digital storefronts before long.

 

[Marcel]

I mean the main issue here is his timetable.

I legit don't know how the fuck he thinks the tech will be in place within 10 years to totally abandon consoles. It 100% will not happen

Existing American internet infrastructure already makes the all streaming future quite a hard thing for me to believe. If internet laws go into the trashcan as many are expecting then good effing luck with that.

 

[soundscream]

In the next two to three years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV.

.

 

[Principate]

I mean this what he's talking about you can do right now it's a question of adoption. Handheld tech will always have it's limitations for his mobile idea but this isn't crazy stuff.

 

[ThatStupidLion]

pretty sure i have preorders for console games that will release in 2-3 years

 

[Milly Osworth]

In 3 years when he is wrong again...

"I meant in the next 2-3 decades!"

 

[ckaneo]

His time table is off. But yeah, eventually it will die

 

[afternoon delight]

If he predicts it every few years, at some point he has to be correct.

This is also true. Calling for an event "in the next decade it may happen" will usually stand the tests of most applied logic.

 

[Oersted]

The OP left out the point that Pachter was trying to make, which was that console makers would have to offer more features if they didn't want the average consumer to just take the easiest option to playing COD, which will be using the console built into the TV (in 10-15 years).

We see this already with smart TVs. Why buy an Amazon Stick anymore when all the apps are just built into modern TVs?

TVs with buildin consoles doesn't sound like a good value proposition.

 

[Trago]

Technology will continue to miniaturize and homogenize. I think his timeline is a little too aggressive to be realistic, but he does not have the wrong idea.

Gaming will become a service, much like music has, and how TV is fast becoming. It is inevitable.

This as well. At this point, none of the big three have cracked the code yet. If Xbox Game Pass is a huge hit, then the ball will definitely get rolling.

 

[Hux1ey]

Mr. Pachter,

If I was interested in playing games on my PC, I'd buy a PC.

But I'm not interested in that.

Sincerely,
NOLA_Gaffer​

The differences between them continues to shrink.

 

[Lulu23]

Pachter and everbody else always spouting this will be wrong with this until they aren't.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Console market's here to stay, guys! Yay!

lol...came for this.