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[Lord of Castamere]

Btw. I have a post coming tonight. It will be long. It will be concise. It will be the Dark Souls of reads.

I will have my final vote.

Preorder now for exclusive access to read it first*. If you buy my album(Ghost on the Hill) you can get it even sooner*.

*Exclusive access not guaranteed.

 

[StanleyPalmtree]

im on the fence about burbs push against the 'dead weight' players,
on one hand i completely see where he is coming from, low energy town has been a frequent and often game losing problem, something we should definitely be proactive about dealing with,
on the other hand following through with that push to the gallows could just be a really easy way to justify the lynching of players with very little evidence/scummy behavior against them, and whom wont really have much ability to defend themselves. such mistaken lynchs obviously being a real boon to scum.

 

[Fireblend]

Vote: StanleyPalmtree

This feels alright

 

[Lord of Castamere]

Vote: StanleyPalmtree

This feels alright

Yeah, it does, unfortunately.

 

[oreomunsta]

Hey fep, I finally got a chance to put pencil down on paper regarding how the days can play out for Town, and it looks like you're right I'm regards to mafia not actually being able to work that much faster if we go lynch every second day. I think you missed the rule for the end of the game, so my conclusions are a bit more different than yours.

I'll write up my results and conclusions before posting, so they're easier to read than a wall of text

 

[YesNOnoNOYes]

DAY 1 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:

isaacnukem (2)
Lord of Castamere 96
nin1000 275

CornBurrito (2)
Christina Mackenzie 134
flatearthpandas 182 328
flatearthpandas 328

kitsunelaine (1)
hey_monkey 245

nin1000 (1)
StanleyPalmtree 185

Christina Mackenzie (1)
CornBurrito 89

StanleyPalmtree (1)
flatearthpandas 150 182
Fireblend 353

Trigger (1)
Burbeting 296

oreomunsta (1)
Sawneeks 293

flatearthpandas (1)
kitsunelaine 110

Burbeting (0): Sawneeks 44 130

Verelios (0): Burbeting 67 296

No active vote for Day 1: isaacnukem, Muffin1611, oreomunsta, rac, Trigger, Verelios

Day 1 Postcount: Burbeting 31, Christina Mackenzie 11, CornBurrito 9, Fireblend 7, flatearthpandas 22, hey_monkey 45, isaacnukem 8, kitsunelaine 19, Lord of Castamere 7, Muffin1611 15, nin1000 52, oreomunsta 12, rac 8, Sawneeks 28, StanleyPalmtree 14, Trigger 8, Verelios 12


Day 1 ends:

9 votes for majority

 

[hey_monkey]

Vote: StanleyPalmtree

This feels alright

Yeah, it does, unfortunately.

But like... why? What feels right about it?

 

[Lord of Castamere]

But like... why? What feels right about it?

Hold that thought. I need a few more hours.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Hey fep, I finally got a chance to put pencil down on paper regarding how the days can play out for Town, and it looks like you're right I'm regards to mafia not actually being able to work that much faster if we go lynch every second day. I think you missed the rule for the end of the game, so my conclusions are a bit more different than yours.

I'll write up my results and conclusions before posting, so they're easier to read than a wall of text

You mean in that scum actually has to kill everyone instead of just get majority? Looking forward to your conclusions.

 

[StanleyPalmtree]

okay, not the response i was expecting.

 

[StanleyPalmtree]

oh yeah, i forgot i had that vote on nin.

hey Fep, hold onto this for me.

vote: flatearthpandas

 

[rac]

can a carry something?

 

[nin1000]

Well the way burb reacted was the way I anticipated him to react. Burb being burb.

 

[flatearthpandas]

now this i cant agree with, lynching people over mechanic misunderstandings is excessive and has very little chance of actually leading to scum, not to mention making thier hiding way easier.

Not over misunderstandings. Everyone makes mistakes. But his only "contributions" are a big nothing post and then posts telling town not to consider new strategies based off of no discernible consideration or thought. You know the easiest play right now? Business as usual, despite being in an unusual game. People vocally advocating for town not to think are suspect.

fuck...... i hit enter too soon. repost time.

Let's MATH

...snip...


And I realize this analysis forgot that SK can't kill each night.

Making it all worthless. Will math when less tired.

Like, why even post this? Why even post? And where is the supposed thoughtful follow up? It never came. Instead we got "nonono let's do business as usual here's some fud and snark even after having game mechanics quoted for him.

 

[flatearthpandas]

oh yeah, i forgot i had that vote on nin.

hey Fep, hold onto this for me.

vote: flatearthpandas

I know i shouldn't even ask considering you are on team don't think about the game but care to explain? Want to continue the false narrative that I'm trying to lunch people who make mistakes?

 

[isaacnukem]

Vote: isaacnukem

Tell me more

Your eyes are beautiful

 

[nin1000]

Honestly Nin is acting strange and kind of erratic. I'm not town-reading them, in my eyes they could be either neutral or scum.

I am a single person.
Erratic is accurate thought, not that it would be a bad thing though. I mean we don't have to make friends in this game.
Regarding the last part of your post, that sure is bold statement to make after a half day that I am either scum or neutral.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Fucking Google keyboard hates the word lynch. If it swypes the word at all is always in caps for no reason as well, not that that matters because it never actually suggests the word. Or it thinks i really love lunch.

 

[nin1000]

Can anyone offer a reason why an aggressive Nin who is making a spectacle of himself would be scum? Because that seems like a poor play, a big neon say that screams LYNCH ME.

This however makes sense.

I can't wait to someone argue against it and say that it is the new meta.

 

[flatearthpandas]

I am a single person.
Erratic is accurate thought, not that it would be a bad thing though. I mean we don't have to make friends in this game.
Regarding the last part of your post, that sure is bold statement to make after a half day that I am either scum or neutral.

Them is a neutral gender singular pronoun as well.

 

[Christina Mackenzie]

The thing about Sawneeks is that I've only played with Sawneeks when she's scum (twice) and these big posts and lots of discussion generation is how she functions as scum. It reads as town. But is it? Anyone who's played with her as town want to weigh in? We should watch her content carefully, I think.

Ask her what's her favorite flavor of ice cream, vanilla, chocolate, or strawberry. If the answer is chocolate, lynch her.

 

[nin1000]

Gambits, my friend.

Your gambit of saying that I am either scum or neutral is faar more out of this world than mine lol

 

[nin1000]

im actually quite liking nin's play, it nails the right abrasive tone that can ge a rise out of players, the kind of rise that can be very telling when contrasted against their calmer and more guarded posts.

This guy gets it.

 

[nin1000]

Your eyes are beautiful

Welcome to the game

 

[nin1000]

Ask her what's her favorite flavor of ice cream, vanilla, chocolate, or strawberry. If the answer is chocolate, lynch her.

Chocolate is the only right and true answer.
Who the hell would eat strawberry if there is chocolate available.


Are you even playing ? I did not really get to know you until now

 

[oreomunsta]

Welcome to Oreo’s Analysis of Paralysis! All of these charts are meant to shed some light on how this game of mafia rolls out if Town is getting completely decimated (sort of a worst case scenario).

All of these charts have the following underlying assumptions:

- Only Town members are being killed in these scenarios. No mafia deaths or neutral threats. This constraint is placed in order to mimic a horrible outcome for town, with the intention that deaths of scum or neutral may make these situations better for town than what has been charted
- All sequences have been run until all Town are killed. As per the role descriptions squiddy posted, winning conditions for any side have been met once ALL threats to that side have been eliminated. For simplicity, I only focus on town deaths – and also because who cares what happens to scum and neutral apart from themselves?

The following charts also will use this shorthand:

D#: Day followed by a number stands for that day in the game. Will also be followed by a colon and another number to indicate the number of Town still left alive (eg. D3:9 = 9 Town alive on Day 3)
L: Lynch performed by those in the game
N: Night-kill (scum move)
B: Burrow (neutral move. No kill)
Ig: Ignite (neutral move. Kills all burrowed that come before Ig, and after any previous uses of Ig)

I’ll state the day, number of town alive, and follow it with actions that would be taken through that day/night cycle in parentheses, and repeat for the next day (eg. D5: 5 (L)-> D4: 4)

 

[oreomunsta]

Scenario 1: Lynch every day. No kills made by neutral.

D1: 13 (L, N)-> D2: 11 (L, N)-> D3: 9 (L, N)-> D4: 7 (L, N)-> D5: 5 (L, N)-> D6: 3 (L, N)-> D7: 1 (L, N)-> D8: 0

Conclusion: Town dies after 7 days

 

[oreomunsta]

Scenario 2: Lynch every second day after D1. No kills made by neutral.

D1: 13 (L, N)-> D2: 11 (N)-> D3: 10 (L, N)-> D4: 8 (N)-> D5: 7 (L, N)-> D6: 5 (N)-> D7: 4 (L, N)-> D8: 2 (N)-> D9: 1 (L, N)-> D10: 0

Conclusion: Town dies after 9 days

Note: Order does matter if we want to lynch only on odd or even days after D1. In this scenario, I ran with odd numbered days. If we lynched on even days (D2, D4, etc.), Town dies after 8 days.

 

[oreomunsta]

Scenario 3: Lynch every day. Neutral ignites every second day.

D1: 13 (L, N, B)-> D2: 11 (L, N, Ig)-> D3: 8 (L, N, B)-> D4: 6 (L, N, Ig)-> D5: 3 (L, N, B)-> D6: 1 (L, N, Ig)-> D7: 0

Conclusion: Town dies after 6 days

 

[oreomunsta]

Scenario 4: Lynch every second day after D1. Neutral ignites every second day.

D1: 13 (L, N, B)-> D2: 11 (N, Ig)-> D3: 9 (L, N, B)-> D4: 7 (N, Ig)-> D5: 5 (L, N, B)-> D6: 3 (N, Ig)-> D7: 1 (L, N, B)-> D8: 0

Conclusion: Town dies after 7 days

Note: As with Scenario 2. Performing a lynch on Even numbered days after D1 will end Town after 6 days.

 

[hey_monkey]

I thought you were arguing against skipping some lynches but your chart bought us extra days so....?

 

[oreomunsta]

Scenario 5: Lynch every day. Neutral ignites most efficiently.

D1: 13 (L, N, B)-> D2: 11 (L, N, B)-> D3: 9 (L, N, B)-> D4: 7 (L, N, B)-> D5: 5 (L, N, Ig)-> D6: 0

Conclusion: Town dies after 5 days

 

[oreomunsta]

Scenario 6: Lynch every second day after D1. Neutral ignites most efficiently.

D1: 13 (L, N, B)-> D2: 11 (L, N, B)-> D3: 10 (L, N, B)-> D4: 8 (L, N, B)-> D5: 6 (L, N, Ig)-> D6: 0

Conclusion: Town dies after 5 days

Note: Opposite to Scenarios 2 and 4, lynching on even numbered days will lead to town ending after 6 days – an increase of one more day!

 

[hey_monkey]

Note: As with Scenario 2. Performing a lynch on Even numbered days after D1 will end Town after 6 days.

wait, what? explain because as I'm reading your numbers we last longer if we're not mislynching town just for shiggles but you're reading your numbers totally differently?

as a side note I drank a lot of vodka during podcast so I mean I could be totally wrong here

 

[oreomunsta]

So, in final conclusions, it looks like deciding to lynch on second days will in general increase town’s lifespan by one day. However, deciding on whether to lynch on even or odd days will have opposite effects depending on how efficiently the neutral player tries to kill off town. On the topic of the neutral, it doesn’t seem like they’re as big of a threat to town as it first seems, and can only affect town’s lifespan by a day at most (I can say this by disregarding Scenarios 1 and 2, because it’s highly unlikely neutral will not act if they aren’t killed off early.

Any deviations from these charts can be assumed to help out town’s chances of winning
Oh, also:

Vote: Sawneeks

I was going to vote for fep, but I see what he was talking about now. Your vote for me is weird

 

[Lord of Castamere]

I have returned.

I'm not sure where meta is now, I know last I played read lists were out of style, fluff if you will, well too bad... READ LIST TIME

Read list is structured by most relevant topics to me, people are grouped accordingly. I'm splitting this into 2 parts. These are the two more interesting groups to me, the other's are the top 3 in activity, and the rest of you *waves hand dismissively*.

1. Burbeting
Has provided useful info throughout the day. If you really want to get WIFOM, some info in the beginning could have been coded to other scum. It's a possibility, but I'm not sure if it's lynchable. Mixed vibes from first page posts.

The big post on the third is slightly more reassuring, at first glance. Multiple call outs. Solid vote. Strong position, with no back down.

As a note, 'dead weight' doesn't mean 'low activity' 100%. I haven't included some of the low activity posters so far like Castamere/Fireblend, yet I include kitsu who has posted over 10 posts already.

A question though. How was Fireblend contributing exactly at this point? You didn't include him on your kill list, but at that point he had posted nothing. Still hasn't really fill-fulled his promises. I had, at least, one bigger post discussing my thoughts, at that point, but not Fireblend.
I find this even more concerning the deeper I go in that list, as there are other people on your list, like kitsunelaine, who had contributed way more than Fireblend at that point.

2. Fireblend
I understand that life happens, I really do, but as a 3 time scum, one thing I'm intimately familiar with making promises that I have no intention of keeping.

I wasn't expecting to vote for these two when I started, but it is what it is, I'm not getting good vibes from either, after my dig, and today might be our only big info lynch, so I think we should reap the soul of Fireblend. If my connection is true, and it might not be, we could get two scum my one lynch. In any case, my vote is decided.

Why Fireblend over Burb? Burb is at least contributing, if we have to kill someone I’d rather be wrong with someone that isn’t as useful, honestly.

They can counter this, of course, but I don't really know how you can without prior meta usage, which is lame duck excuse imo.

I think there's a fair chance that Fireblend, Burb, and one of the people on his list is scum.

VOTE: Fireblend

----
10. flatearthpandas
Ohhh, A hot button topic button. Fep is playing very aggressively right now, but, I’m not feeling scum. I don’t agree with the jump on CB, but he have been posting actively. WIFM would say that this might be a scum team latch on(I forget the term) I’ve seen this before, but it’s a hard sell with how it played out. Too quick. I think this is a misguided townie trying to find water in the desert.

12. CornBurrito
Middle. Slight contribution, and an early vote. I don’t see why forgetting a mechanic is a scum tell. Why would that help scum? There’s not enough here for a good read, but I like his response to FEPs vote, good vibes.

-----

 

[nin1000]

wait, what? explain because as I'm reading your numbers we last longer if we're not mislynching town just for shiggles but you're reading your numbers totally differently?

as a side note I drank a lot of vodka during podcast so I mean I could be totally wrong here

This Will be fun

 

[oreomunsta]

I thought you were arguing against skipping some lynches but your chart bought us extra days so....?

Yeah, once I did the work myself it looks like fep was right and I was wrong about the speed of the game

wait, what? explain because as I'm reading your numbers we last longer if we're not mislynching town just for shiggles but you're reading your numbers totally differently?

as a side note I drank a lot of vodka during podcast so I mean I could be totally wrong here

Ah fuck, I mispoke a little with that one What I meant was that if we decide to lynch on even days, it brings town's days down by 1, not that it's a flat number of 6 days

 

[hey_monkey]

This Will be fun

i mean I use a 24 ounce jar for mixing (800ml) and boy oh wow we were critiquing the latest issue of a games studies journal and all up in our feelings and so much drinking happened. it was a time. what a time to be alive.

So, in final conclusions, it looks like deciding to lynch on second days will in general increase town’s lifespan by one day. However, deciding on whether to lynch on even or odd days will have opposite effects depending on how efficiently the neutral player tries to kill off town. On the topic of the neutral, it doesn’t seem like they’re as big of a threat to town as it first seems, and can only affect town’s lifespan by a day at most (I can say this by disregarding Scenarios 1 and 2, because it’s highly unlikely neutral will not act if they aren’t killed off early.

Any deviations from these charts can be assumed to help out town’s chances of winning
Oh, also:

Vote: Sawneeks

I was going to vote for fep, but I see what he was talking about now. Your vote for me is weird

oHO that vote, though. that's going to cause some things.

So you did the math, which is interesting, and while I think it downplays the neutral and ignores possible scenarios, which you grant up front, gives us a good baseline to just consider No Lynch as a possibility after today. Not that we always should.

Been a lot of math so far. Some more effective math, some less effective math. Looking forward to whatever else LoC offers, too, here. scumBear is an intriguing possibility. I wondered if he switched to more than mechanics on purpose or if it was natural progression. I don't think I'd vote bear today, though.

 

[oreomunsta]

So you did the math, which is interesting, and while I think it downplays the neutral and ignores possible scenarios, which you grant up front, gives us a good baseline to just consider No Lynch as a possibility after today. Not that we always should.

Damn, monkey, you're still making good points I forgot to cover even after vodka :]

So, in the worst case scenarios, neutral doesn't matter a whole lot. However, I bet that the more we deviate from a worst case scenario, the more significant neutral's plays are. There aren't a lot of mafia, though, so I'll still hold neutral as not the biggest threat to town right now, but later in the game is a different story.

So, fuck it, I'm a convert. No lynch isn't a bad alternative, seeing as how it's hard to separate from a bad scenario for town o_o

 

[hey_monkey]

I AM A SCIENTIST OF RHETORIC, even when drinky.

Welcome to the concert club. Over here we have snacks, over there the sacks we wear when the traditionalists march us to the block.

As for the neutral, it's such a wild card. Hard to even speculate. Better to consider today. Let's say you could not vote Sawneeks. Where would you go next?

 

[hey_monkey]

LoC, I like what you're laying down and i like read lists so right on. Questions, though. You're not into wht Fireblend had going after he turned up? Interesting catch re: Burb - possible motivation on RL-busy honor system but also maybe something else. Will have to watch. Good for thought at least.

What do you do tomorrow if Fireblend posts more before deadline? Do you move to Burb or elsewhere?

 

[StanleyPalmtree]

I know i shouldn't even ask considering you are on team don't think about the game but care to explain? Want to continue the false narrative that I'm trying to lunch people who make mistakes?

i should clarify that my disagreement was more on the "we dont need these people, kill them" stance, not so much on CB i particular,
that said yeah i do think you are going way overboard on his case. you seem to be pulling the "dont think" think thing out of absolute nowhere (and lumping me into it based on even less), noone has advocated that at all. all i see is that he misunderstood how a no lynch functions, which he took back as soon you pointed it out.
what am i missing here?

 

[Lord of Castamere]

LoC, I like what you're laying down and i like read lists so right on. Questions, though. You're not into wht Fireblend had going after he turned up? Interesting catch re: Burb - possible motivation on RL-busy honor system but also maybe something else. Will have to watch. Good for thought at least.

What do you do tomorrow if Fireblend posts more before deadline? Do you move to Burb or elsewhere?

Even worse after he turned up. Just standard sholck, and a bandwagon vote for FEP. Coupled with the Burb stuff, it just makes me more suspicious. I will say that if he is scum, it's not a good play right now, but besides going after an inactive, which he more or less is, I don't see a better path. So no, I won't be moving my vote by their actions, I will switch if someone else gives me a reason to.

Also, It's late, so I'm going to bed. I might not get to my remaining reads tomorrow, and I have class, so I might not post before deadline at all, not sure, I'll try though. Anywho, the summery is mainly, everyone needs to post more, except for nin, monkey, and Sawneeks, who are good people, except Sawneeks, who we should kill, because she scares me, alot, but she probably isn't scum.

 

[kitsunelaine]

I am a single person.
Erratic is accurate thought, not that it would be a bad thing though. I mean we don't have to make friends in this game.
Regarding the last part of your post, that sure is bold statement to make after a half day that I am either scum or neutral.

I'm using they because I default to gender neutral pronouns where I can.

 

[nin1000]

I'm using they because I default to gender neutral pronouns where I can.

Still a bold statement to make.

Are you sure ?

 

[kitsunelaine]

Still a bold statement to make.

Are you sure ?

I'm positive. You keep making very short posts replying to the same person over and over. It werids the hell out of me.

 

[nin1000]

I'm positive. You keep making very short posts replying to the same person over and over. It werids the hell out of me.

So a certain way of playing the game is indicative to an allignement.

Sure.

 

[nin1000]

Since we are almost 12 hours from the day end, I will

Unvote

And put down my vote later on to a player that really deserves to leave the camp today.

 

[Christina Mackenzie]

Are we allowed to use the HIGHLIGHT tag for fun now?