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Dark Souls Mafia |OT| Git Gud or Die Trying
- Thread starter squidyj
- Start date
i didnt feel confident putting a vote on anyone
Lord of Castamere
Member
I think that's how Trump got elected.
As a start, I do think that Issacnukem and Rac should be our backup lyches, if we have nothing else to go off of. Both are lowest activity, and neither voted. I'm going to dig through their posts, though I'm not sure if there will be anything to find.
You two are worse than dead weight. Voting is the only tool we share as a town. I hate your response so much right now that...
Vote: Rac
Yeah, I agree with you. There's a lot of other things to discuss (right?) and we shouldn't get hampered down on speculation and theory crafting. Just felt like you were saying it was moot thinking about Burb's death.
hitting town is gonna happen anyways, i just couldn't see a suitable alternative
sorry lord
but i dunno
it doesn't make me look better than anyone else and probably makes me look worse
hey_monkey
Banned
So:
1. Votes were very scattered. Likely scum was in several places.
2. Burbeting was top candidate to be discussed today so scum did town's work, which is just weird.
3. Fireblend was not scum and his only ties were to the people who voted for him, with him, and Burbeting (see above).
Before combing back through the bear's posts, and others, I thought I'd put this here.
oops, was distracted by Destiny and forgot the Day even started...
I am questioning though: why Burb?? We're now effectively back to square one with both him and Fire gone ( as confirmed Town at least ) so maybe that was the goal? Did he say something Scum didn't like? I'll have to go over his posts to see anything specific but I just know he disliked the low count posters/dead weight so...maybe there's something there?
guess we also need to discuss if we want to start No Lynching or not too.
I am questioning though: why Burb?? We're now effectively back to square one with both him and Fire gone ( as confirmed Town at least ) so maybe that was the goal? Did he say something Scum didn't like? I'll have to go over his posts to see anything specific but I just know he disliked the low count posters/dead weight so...maybe there's something there?
guess we also need to discuss if we want to start No Lynching or not too.
You're shutting that line of questioning down awfully quick.
question
are you neutral?
we won't be mad if you say yes.
Agree with all of these points.
In regards to your first point, I need to go back and look at how Fire v Burb became the leading lynch candidates because I know it wasn't clear leading up to it. Since both ended up being Town then that either means Scum just laid around and left their votes without caring too much to switch or there was a shift to push Fire/Burb into the spotlight and get somebody else out of harms way.
will report back once i do homework and read over it.
Muffin1611
Banned
If you can draw helpful conclusions from the D1 votes, I'll be glad to hear them. I personally don't see any there, and don't think there's much to dig for.
hey_monkey
Banned
I honestly believe Fire v Burb took precedence because there was a lot of "I dunno" happening and those were the only folks people were making real discussions about. A few other votes got placed without much reasoning given. But there may have been some other things happening - I'm planning to go back and re-read myself because, well, there just really isn't that much.
hey_monkey
Banned
Well, I dunno what happened there with that quote but I kinda like the idea of Sawneeks yelling Y to start my interaction with her today.
kitsunelaine
Banned
Well shit.
Okay, townies, one thing we have to remember: Scum doesn't have a scumchat this time around. We can't expect them to be as conniving as they usually are.
Okay, townies, one thing we have to remember: Scum doesn't have a scumchat this time around. We can't expect them to be as conniving as they usually are.
Lord of Castamere
Member
*narrows eyes* That sounds that something a scum would say.
Always expect the worst of your enemies, so that you're never surprised.
flatearthpandas
Member
Scum could likely get basic ideas across just putting in kills so I don't agree.
oreomunsta
Banned
Hey squid, when it states no Anti-Town eliminated, that includes the neutral doesn't it?
Until I get an answer, I'm going to have to operate on the assumption that neutral is still out there, and has acted.
So before we go too far into Burb's death (I'll miss Bear-senpai ;~; ), we need to decide whether we go the route of lynch or no lynch!
I think we're still in the realm where my analyses are valid, so I'll bring up the scenarios we could be living between:
So, at minimum, if we decide to lynch today, Town will be going down a route where we only have 4 more days left.
If we move off to lynching only on odd days, we'll buy ourselves one more day. (I'm ignoring the last note I made for Scenario 6 b/c there's a lot of conditions that need to be met for that to happen).
I'm of the opinion that we don't lynch today, and save it unitl tomorrow. We need to be in accordance with this, because without a majority, "No Lynch" votes are totally wasted.
Until I get an answer, I'm going to have to operate on the assumption that neutral is still out there, and has acted.
So before we go too far into Burb's death (I'll miss Bear-senpai ;~; ), we need to decide whether we go the route of lynch or no lynch!
I think we're still in the realm where my analyses are valid, so I'll bring up the scenarios we could be living between:
So, at minimum, if we decide to lynch today, Town will be going down a route where we only have 4 more days left.
If we move off to lynching only on odd days, we'll buy ourselves one more day. (I'm ignoring the last note I made for Scenario 6 b/c there's a lot of conditions that need to be met for that to happen).
I'm of the opinion that we don't lynch today, and save it unitl tomorrow. We need to be in accordance with this, because without a majority, "No Lynch" votes are totally wasted.
oreomunsta
Banned
Do we know they don't have a scumchat? They could still have a chat where they see each other's votes and input actions, but can't use it for anything else
flatearthpandas
Member
I need to think more on how the odd and even affects the lynch but i think we should always have a threat of lynching so we aren't wasting time. That or turbo the no lynch ASAP.
Lord of Castamere
Member
In those 4 scenarios you're assuming quite a few things,
1. That Arson will hit town every night.
2. That Doc will save no one.
3 That Arson and Scum won't cross kill.
4. That Scum won't hit Arson.
With the number of days we have, something in the above will happen, at the very least, there's very little chance that the scum and Arson don't cross once. Especially, if they take your "efficient" path.
flatearthpandas
Member
What's your point?
oreomunsta
Banned
Yup, definitely agree that a No Lynch needs to be turbo'd if we are on board with it
I did make it hopefully clear enough, though, that the paths I highlighted were worst case scenarios, and so if any of your points (except for 1.) above happen, then that pushes the odds towards town's favour.
For the arsonist, it says they can either use Burrow or Ignite. Doesn't that mean that they can't hit every single night?
oreomunsta
Banned
Here's why I think we're confused about the arsonist
Took the liberty to highlight and bold the "or"
Took the liberty to highlight and bold the "or"
hey_monkey
Banned
I'm absolutely fine with No Lynch and turboing after everyone checks in. Give PRs another night to roll to see what happens, see who scum picks (and see if we get lucky) and then do all the talking tomorrow. We get a tiny bit of extra info at least but we're not giving scum much to go on other than the fact that they know who town is.
Lord of Castamere
Member
What if both of the PRs died last night, since we're going with worst case scenarios?
hey_monkey
Banned
Then town is probably fucked but there's not shit we can do about it. I doubt Fireblend was a PR at least from his relative chill (relative) at possible lynch.
oreomunsta
Banned
Then we're still in the realm of my four scenarios
I couldn't confidently factor in the actions of doctor and copI'll hopefully try and find something but I just didn't like how dismissive you were of looking back at them.
????
Are you telling me Scum just 'randomly' killed Burb? The guy who was likely going to be talked about today since he was the other lynch train going on a quiet Day 1?
Also LoC kinda has a good point here....
Don't think Fire was one considering how quietly he went into the lynch but we have no idea on Burb. While the PRs can help us out immensely here I don't think we can completely rely on them since we'd never know if they are dead or still around.
I also need to think over No Lynching again. Extending the Day Phase helps out AND we narrow down the possibility of our lynch giving us Info but at the same time I'm still wary of leaving out the ability for us to lynch since it's really all we can do. At the same time, lynching every day means we never really get a good solid lead on anything....
i really don't know
hey_monkey
Banned
And it means we die more quickly if we keep hitting town. Do we have anything to go on today? That's what it comes down to for me. I mean, we might dig something up or someone might say something damning but with the votes as they were and the result of the NK, I dunno that we have anything.
oreomunsta
Banned
We've got Burb, and that's about it, I'd say :/
Gotta be wary of the WIFOM, but essentially I see two possibilities:
1. Some scummy thought Burb was getting close to home, so they voted Burb
2. Scum thought that by taking Burb out, Town then turns on those who weren't too keen on Burb on D1
hey_monkey
Banned
3. as suggested above, taking out our next target returns us to square one (if this is the case, then I believe we absolutely should go for No Lynch)
kitsunelaine
Banned
That hardly counts as a "chat". Chat implies talking and planning.
You're right. Pointing out something for Town to plan around to defeat scum is exactly what scum would do.
I mean... I'm not against a no lynch today but what are our contingencies? What happens if we get a town check tomorrow, should our cop claim? Probably not. Hypnotist? Would be garbage using it on such a big pool but runs the risk of getting NKed before using it.
Then where do we go tomorrow?
Then where do we go tomorrow?
oreomunsta
Banned
But what isn't excluded is sharing. If one scum puts in a night vote, then the other scum are more likely to incline that way, than vote differently and cause a tie that gets no night kill
Starting with Trigger's vote on Stan at #473
Vote count is: CornBro ( 2 ) v. Trigger ( 2 ) v. Fireblend ( 2 ) v. Stan ( 2)
Sawneeks votes Burb
Muffin votes Nin
Nin Votes Burb
Fire votes Nin
With 16 minutes left as of Squidy's post, Votes are now: Nin ( 3 ) v. Burbeting ( 2 ) v. CornBro ( 2 ) v. Trigger ( 2 ) v. Fireblend ( 2 )
Vere votes Fire
Muffin votes Fire
Day End. Fire ( 4 ) v CornBro ( 2 ) v. Trigger ( 2 ) v Nin ( 2 ) Burb ( 2 )
Only things that stick out to me is the sudden Nin surge last minute that's gets thrown up by Muffin only for him to switch off it last-minute with bandwagoning logic as he follows Monkey's read of Kits and Vere's Fire vote which read kinda opportunistic to me. Knowing Burb and Fire ended up being Town though means this only really makes sense if Muffin or Vere were trying to save Nin so if he ends up being Scum I'd probably look at either of them.
However, in the complete opposite direction it's entirely possible the End of Day candidates were all Town or Neutral, meaning Scum could have just sat on the sidelines and parked their votes elsewhere without really having to worry too much. This includes our two no votes, Rac and Isaac, and everyone who sat on people with only 1 vote: Oreo, Trigger, and CornBro. There's almost no reason to ever No Vote as Town since it's our main weapon at finding Scum so I don't understand why you wouldn't on a Day where it was discussed as to how important it was. Parking a vote off on someone who isn't even in the running kinda falls into the same thing since it's a vote that is, essentially, doing absolutely nothing. Trigger was on Stan who had some votes for a while before dropping off last minute so I'm not too worried there, but CornBro's and Oreo's votes are the ones that sit poorly with me. Oreo's was an OMGUS that just didn't go anywhere and CornBro suddenly got really concerned over low count posters and just parked it on Rac without doing much about it either.
so, tl;dr, I'd be a little more concerned about Vere/Muffin if Nin flips Scum and the gaggle of voters with votes that did nothing ( Rac, Isaac, CornBro, Oreo ) really need to step it up since I doubt all 3 Scum and the 1 Neutral are right there.
Vote count is: CornBro ( 2 ) v. Trigger ( 2 ) v. Fireblend ( 2 ) v. Stan ( 2)
Sawneeks votes Burb
Muffin votes Nin
Nin Votes Burb
Fire votes Nin
With 16 minutes left as of Squidy's post, Votes are now: Nin ( 3 ) v. Burbeting ( 2 ) v. CornBro ( 2 ) v. Trigger ( 2 ) v. Fireblend ( 2 )
Vere votes Fire
Muffin votes Fire
Day End. Fire ( 4 ) v CornBro ( 2 ) v. Trigger ( 2 ) v Nin ( 2 ) Burb ( 2 )
Only things that stick out to me is the sudden Nin surge last minute that's gets thrown up by Muffin only for him to switch off it last-minute with bandwagoning logic as he follows Monkey's read of Kits and Vere's Fire vote which read kinda opportunistic to me. Knowing Burb and Fire ended up being Town though means this only really makes sense if Muffin or Vere were trying to save Nin so if he ends up being Scum I'd probably look at either of them.
However, in the complete opposite direction it's entirely possible the End of Day candidates were all Town or Neutral, meaning Scum could have just sat on the sidelines and parked their votes elsewhere without really having to worry too much. This includes our two no votes, Rac and Isaac, and everyone who sat on people with only 1 vote: Oreo, Trigger, and CornBro. There's almost no reason to ever No Vote as Town since it's our main weapon at finding Scum so I don't understand why you wouldn't on a Day where it was discussed as to how important it was. Parking a vote off on someone who isn't even in the running kinda falls into the same thing since it's a vote that is, essentially, doing absolutely nothing. Trigger was on Stan who had some votes for a while before dropping off last minute so I'm not too worried there, but CornBro's and Oreo's votes are the ones that sit poorly with me. Oreo's was an OMGUS that just didn't go anywhere and CornBro suddenly got really concerned over low count posters and just parked it on Rac without doing much about it either.
so, tl;dr, I'd be a little more concerned about Vere/Muffin if Nin flips Scum and the gaggle of voters with votes that did nothing ( Rac, Isaac, CornBro, Oreo ) really need to step it up since I doubt all 3 Scum and the 1 Neutral are right there.
flatearthpandas
Member
Probably. At the very least I see no value in spinning our wheels wondering why he's gone.
I could guess it means there were scum on fires wagon and they killed burb to make us think scum was uninvested since it was town town. But really it's all just wifom.
What i can say is i find your reactions less than genuine.
Not really, no. But, as Vere says below, what changes between now and the next Day Phase? We'd be where we are now but with a few more dead player(s) so we'd have to take a risk eventually....
I mean, the argument could be the same as a MyLo 'No Lynch' argument. No Lynching forces Scum to narrow down the pool of players and we can try figuring out something from the NK choices. Scum killing all High Post Count players might mean they're in the mid-to-low count posters and Scum killing only Low Count players might mean their somewhere in the mid-to-high range. But i mean we've still got what, 15 players left? It won't do us much good right now and we'd still have to lynch the Neutral early if we even wanted a real chance at winning since Scum can't kill them....
We'd basically be exactly where we are now except with one ( or possibly 2 ) more dead players unless our Cop/Hypnotist hit well.
hey_monkey
Banned
I think that's the towniest post I've ever seen from you, Sawneeks. HOLY SHIT ARE YOU TOWN?
fake edit: I see FEP disagrees. But I do agree with him that as much as I want to speculate about Burb, it's very WIFOM.
Burb was going to be today's target - they kill him to throw suspicion on those who wanted him gone - or they kill him because he was on to something - or they kill him so we're back at square one - or they kill him because they wanted us questioning those things - and on and on and on.
We had a lot of votes with little to no reasoning. Probably standard d1 but also a place for scum to hide with that reasoning. So we can throw that into the mix.
fake edit: I see FEP disagrees. But I do agree with him that as much as I want to speculate about Burb, it's very WIFOM.
Burb was going to be today's target - they kill him to throw suspicion on those who wanted him gone - or they kill him because he was on to something - or they kill him so we're back at square one - or they kill him because they wanted us questioning those things - and on and on and on.
We had a lot of votes with little to no reasoning. Probably standard d1 but also a place for scum to hide with that reasoning. So we can throw that into the mix.
hey_monkey
Banned
Wait: what if they killed off Burb because they're going to take down our higher volume posters and our most experienced players? That might actually be the only reason I can think to no lynch.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
i feel like i missed something here,
why should we turbo the no lynch if we do one?
why should we turbo the no lynch if we do one?
hey_monkey
Banned
to NOT vote no lynch, I mean.
hey_monkey
Banned
End the day faster, give scum fewer clues, wait to hold discussion until we see what happens, probably other reasons, too.
isaacnukem
Member
Hello, weekend's over. I'll be able to catch up this day phase.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
okay now im feeling really dumb. "give scum fewer clues" clues to what? just who they should kill next?
kitsunelaine
Banned
I'm assuming they mean "give scum less clues as to who holds the power roles", but I honestly fail to see how clues can be given in the first place.
flatearthpandas
Member
I would say turbo just so we don't have to spend three RL days chatting in a no-pressure situation that will end with a no lynch. That's effectively a six-day day. Seems like a waste of all of our RL time when we could just buckle down, see the next town flip, and then get into real conversation. If we don't care too much which of the two days we lynch on then I'm not too bothered because there's still pressure. This is where oreo's breakdown comes in.