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[Renna Hazel]

I know Pokemon is huge, but this is ridiculous. How much did it sell by now?

It's at 15.7 million lifetime as of June 2017.

To put the other post into pespective, Pokemon Switch would have to sell at least 20 million copies in 2018 to just outsell Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon and Odyssey. Nintendo will likely sell about 30 million Switch first party games this year. Pokemon Switch would have to be the best selling Pokemon ever (beating the lifetime sales of Red/Blue) in a few months in order to do what the other poster said.

So yeah, drastically overestimating Pokemon. I'm not even sure Pokemon is bigger than Mario alone, let alone all the other games.

 

[Zedark]

When can we expect actual numbers?

October 30th.

 

[ArchedThunder]

And how much bigger was sun and moon compared to Mario Kart 7? Pokemon is big but this is an exaggeration for sure.

I'd bet anything that Pokemon Switch doesn't outsell every first party game this year combined. It wont even be close.

You're right, Pokemon wouldn't outsell every first party game this year, but Pokemon is still a monster.

It took Mario Kart a long time to reach that number

 

[Renna Hazel]

You're right, Pokemon wouldn't outsell every first party game this year, but Pokemon is still a monster.

It took Mario Kart a long time to reach that number

It also took X and Y a long time to reach that number. Sun and Moon have the benefit of launching at the end of the lifespan. I'm not denying that Pokemon is a huge seller, but I'd question it's ability to outsell Mario alone, let alone every other game released this year.

Pokemon is big and it will move systems though. I just see many people overestimating it's numbers since Pokemon Go released.

 

[jackal27]

You guys did it! You bought Metroid! Thank you.

Also, it's nice to see Nintendo doing well when they do good things and release good games. Sometimes it feels like there's no justice in this industry, but stuff like this gives me hope.

 

[CGiRanger]

I think we'll get a small direct or trailer for Zelda DLC.....well soon. dang it's taking a while.

But I think a real direct will come in January

Wow, I almost completely forgot about DLC pack 2. Nintendo has been completely silent about it other than the initial announcement and the amibos. It's interesting since they did say it was Holiday 2017.

What's funny is, if you made a poll/bet back at E3, and asked if Ballad of the Champions would most certainly release before Xenoblade 2, most would say Xeno 2 would be delayed to 2018.

Of course, Pack 2 could still release ahead of X2. Since it's DLC, Nintendo can drop it whenever they want without any forewarning (maybe a few days to announce a direct and that's it).

 

[MTC100]

Nah it's a handheld first and foremost, it has the same limitation as handhelds.

It has less limitations than the WiiU though.

 

[Skullwaker]

Woah... are you suggesting the 3ds was a failure of some sort? And better yet, are you suggesting the Switch will do better than the 3ds? Cuz if you are, no fkn way..

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the Switch has a good possibility of outselling the 3DS lifetime. It's had a much better start overall.

 

[watershed]

The NOA PR says the Switch is now over 2 million since launch in NA. I would have thought that number would be over 3 million by now.

 

[HF2014]

Great! And it will continue, even if i got PS4 and semi interested in GTS, Everybodies Golf,the games im buying for now are Mario, Dook and Skyrim!, and probably get Stardew cause it pick my attention

 

[And_Gignac]

Nah it's a handheld first and foremost, it has the same limitation as handhelds.

The limitations of playing the same games that a PS4 can? Lol!

I sure remember playing GTAIV in my DS!

Woah... are you suggesting the 3ds was a failure of some sort? And better yet, are you suggesting the Switch will do better than the 3ds? Cuz if you are, no fkn way..
..

Switch will be clkoser to the Wii than to the 3DS.

 

[EDarkness]

The NOA PR says the Switch is now over 2 million since launch in NA. I would have thought that number would be over 3 million by now.

I thought so, too, but I guess the supply problems were pretty severe early on.

 

[Instro]

Woah... are you suggesting the 3ds was a failure of some sort? And better yet, are you suggesting the Switch will do better than the 3ds? Cuz if you are, no fkn way..

The Switch is riding high on positivity right now, I get that, but this is ridiculous. You couldn't have asked for better first party and third party support for a handheld and it still sold like 60+ million, right? What is it that makes you think differently about the Switch?

I don't consider the 3DS to be a success, or an abject failure. By all metrics it was not a great success story for the company, and we can prove that in many ways objectively, as mentioned in previous posts. For example, Nintendo posted 4 straight years of deep annual losses after it launched(obviously this was due in part to the WiiU as well). It occupies a space similar to the PS3, in that it ended up moving a good deal of units and software, but it cratered the company in because it did not perform to their expectations, and cost them a great deal in getting the product to that point.

Regarding Switch sales, that was not the point of my posts, so I think you're misunderstanding. Having said that, since we are on this subject, if you're only measuring success in unit sales I have no idea if the Switch will do better, but it's probable based on it's comparative launch success and current trajectory. I do however think it is very fair to say that if Nintendo is able to sell 50m-60m+ units without having to slash the price like they did with the 3DS, then it will be a vastly more successful device for them.

 

[Zedark]

The NOA PR says the Switch is now over 2 million since launch in NA. I would have thought that number would be over 3 million by now.

It sold 1186k at the end of April. After that, it did around 200k each month, so it was likely just below 2 million at the end of August. Now, it is likely a couple 100k over 2 million, and might be quite close to 3 million after October.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

The NOA PR says the Switch is now over 2 million since launch in NA. I would have thought that number would be over 3 million by now.

Switch had severe production issues for around five months.

 

[erlim]

Switch outsold PS4??? How is that possible!?

I think switch will outsell PS4 now until the end of this gen's life cycle. The Switch just has too much insane momentum, and we haven't even hit the tip of the iceberg. This is with Mario not even being out. Sony is not going to know what hit them this Holiday.
(As long as Switch isn't supply constrained)

Also---mario selling out as a preorder?! How often does software sell out as a preorder! I'm worried there will be some way the game will sell out as a digital download...

 

[Floody]

It's at 15.7 million lifetime as of June 2017.

To put the other post into pespective, Pokemon Switch would have to sell at least 20 million copies in 2018 to just outsell Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon and Odyssey. Nintendo will likely sell about 30 million Switch first party games this year. Pokemon Switch would have to be the best selling Pokemon ever (beating the lifetime sales of Red/Blue) in a few months in order to do what the other poster said.

So yeah, drastically overestimating Pokemon. I'm not even sure Pokemon is bigger than Mario alone, let alone all the other games.

Where are you getting those numbers from? I thought they were all at most 2-4 million sold WW. Mario Odyssey will probably do better than that this year, but 20m-30m for all doesn't seem likely for the year. Pokemon with a much bigger install base will probably do around 15m though.

Pokemon is definitely bigger than 3d Mario too. All Mario combined it's not, but what is?

 

[Nikana]

Switch outsold PS4??? How is that possible!?

Why did you think it wasn't?

 

[DigitalScrap]

I think switch will outsell PS4 now until the end of this gen's life cycle. The Switch just has too much insane momentum, and we haven't even hit the tip of the iceberg. This is with Mario not even being out. Sony is not going to know what hit them this Holiday.
(As long as Switch isn't supply constrained)

Well, the Switch very well may outsell the PS4, but I think that is simply more to do with how many PS4s have already been sold. That said, I'm super happy Nintendo is back!

 

[erlim]

Well, the Switch very well may outsell the PS4, but I think that is simply more to do with how many PS4s have already been sold. That said, I’m super happy Nintendo is back!

It has a ways to go, but the insane momentum of Switch might put it ahead of PS4 for lifetime sales. I mean it sounds crazy now, but Switch has shattered expectations left and right. Likely? No. But it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[Renna Hazel]

Where are you getting those numbers from? I thought they were all at most 2-4 million sold WW. Mario Odyssey will probably do better than that this year, but 20m-30m for all doesn't seem likely for the year. Pokemon with a much bigger install base will probably do around 15m though.

Pokemon is definitely bigger than 3d Mario too. All Mario combined it's not, but what is?

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html

A lot of guess work goes into my prediction of course, but as you can see, Zelda and Mario Kart were close to 4 million sold at the end of June. They're both easily past that now and we haven't even gotten into the holiday season. I think it's safe to say Zelda, Kart, Odyssey and likely Splatoon will all break 5 million this year. That makes for 20+ million with those 4 alone. Add in 1 2 Switch, Arms (both broke a million already), Pokken, Fire Emblem and Xenoblade and that's how I came to the 30 million number.

Pokemon has 0 chance to hit that number in a few months. It may not even hit that number at all.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

No public NPD report until Friday or Monday.

 

[Luke_Wal]

You're right, Pokemon wouldn't outsell every first party game this year, but Pokemon is still a monster.

It took Mario Kart a long time to reach that number

Do you think that this includes the copy of Mario Kart 7 that was included with every 2DS sold for several years? Legitimately curious. I know that Sony counts this with Uncharted, but I’ve been told that can vary.

 

[MrCaliaztec]

It has a ways to go, but the insane momentum of Switch might put it ahead of PS4 for lifetime sales. I mean it sounds crazy now, but Switch has shattered expectations left and right. Likely? No. But it's not out of the realm of possibility.

You can’t possibly believe this to be true? As of middle of July the PS4 was just short of 19 million in the US alone and Worldwide it’s closing in on 60 million units sold.

The switch is selling well because it’s a new console in the middle of a generation with some pretty great launch year software... Switch lifetime sales will probably sit in the ballpark of 50-60million sold in total maybe getting close to 70-80million but it is assuredly not able to catch up any time soon or ever to PS4 sales to date.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Why don't we all calm down before we say things that aren't too smart?

Your "barren wasteland" post was really not arguing in good faith IMO. Deliberately hyperbolic and ignoring what they were saying.

Not to smart like accusing people of trolling or being a fanboy for no reason? Not arguing in good faith? I wasn't arguing at all. I didn't ignore what he said but both of you did when replying to my post.

I don't even know what you were trying to say...

"games that don't exist"?
uh yeah, the 2018 lineup hasn't been announced. Hence I said "I could see..." in my post. It's speculation because we don't know. Not sure how that was unclear at all.

And I had literally made a post about waiting for the lineup, and then you had the "barren wasteland" thing, so I assumed you were trolling. Unless Nintendo really is releasing 3 games in all of 2018.

I was aware it was speculation as was my post. What in my post implied otherwise? My point was simply that right now nothing is set in stone. A lot of the games being thrown around either aren't confirmed to exist, aren't confirmed to be 2018 releases or don't have release dates.

I don't understand why either of you or so upset about the 'barren wasteland' thing. Would it be better if I chose a different word like empty release slate or something. Maybe if you weren't both so defensive you wouldn't assume me using that word means I'm trolling or a fanboy.

As I said I think Nintendo will have an incredible 2018 lineup and I'm probably just being impatient. I just want to know what's actually coming and when it's coming.

Edit: might I remind you that you were questioning why people were calling switches 2018 lineup bare and I explained to you why. You asked why people would call the year bare and then listed unannounced games, games that might not release until 2019 and generic things like '3rd party games' which almost certainly are coming but aren't confirmed. I'm confused why you were surprised by my post.

 

[boiled goose]

You can’t possibly believe this to be true? As of middle of July the PS4 was just short of 19 million in the US alone and Worldwide it’s closing in on 60 million units sold.

The switch is selling well because it’s a new console in the middle of a generation with some pretty great launch year software... Switch lifetime sales will probably sit in the ballpark of 50-60million sold in total maybe getting close to 70-80million but it is assuredly not able to catch up any time soon or ever to PS4 sales to date.

I think Switch will outsell 3ds but not ps4. Ps4 will outsell the ps1 and wii worldwide.

 

[MrCaliaztec]

I think Switch will outsell 3ds but not ps4. Ps4 will outsell the ps1 and wii worldwide.

3ds I see for sure... but cmon there’s absolutely no way the switch could ever oursell the PS4 LTD... it just can’t and won’t happen. People would have to all but stop buying PS4s and Nintendo would have to pull millions of units out of thin air... hehe.

 

[Busaiku]

It also took X and Y a long time to reach that number. Sun and Moon have the benefit of launching at the end of the lifespan. I'm not denying that Pokemon is a huge seller, but I'd question it's ability to outsell Mario alone, let alone every other game released this year.

Pokemon is big and it will move systems though. I just see many people overestimating it's numbers since Pokemon Go released.

Every new mainline Pokémon outsold Super Mario 3D Land (the best selling 3D game, unless you combine Super Mario 64 and DS) in their first quarter.
It won't outsell all of them combined, ever, but it will likely easily outdo any of them.

 

[Lord of Ostia]

Do you think that this includes the copy of Mario Kart 7 that was included with every 2DS sold for several years? Legitimately curious. I know that Sony counts this with Uncharted, but I’ve been told that can vary.

Yes, it definitely includes pack ins. They include pack ins in their Mario Kart Wii numbers, which is how that game sold so many units.

 

[Floody]

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html

A lot of guess work goes into my prediction of course, but as you can see, Zelda and Mario Kart were close to 4 million sold at the end of June. They're both easily past that now and we haven't even gotten into the holiday season. I think it's safe to say Zelda, Kart, Odyssey and likely Splatoon will all break 5 million this year. That makes for 20+ million with those 4 alone. Add in 1 2 Switch, Arms (both broke a million already), Pokken, Fire Emblem and Xenoblade and that's how I came to the 30 million number.

Pokemon has 0 chance to hit that number in a few months. It may not even hit that number at all.

Ah, thanks. Zelda is likely much higher than I thought it would be at (3m-4m).
It'll definitely not be an easy feat, especially with it likely being very late, if it makes 2018 (which I'm not actually all that confident of, if I'm being honest), but I think Pokemon Switch will be on a different level, even by it's standards. And Switch will likely have a huge install base by then compared to what the rest have now.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

3ds I see for sure... but cmon there’s absolutely no way the switch could ever oursell the PS4 LTD... it just can’t and won’t happen. People would have to all but stop buying PS4s and Nintendo would have to pull millions of units out of thin air... hehe.

It's unlikely to happen, but it absolutely could. Switch would need even stronger third party support and at least one new breakout Nintendo IP for it to happen.

 

[Big Green Anus]

I'm really happy for Nintendo. I purchased a Switch in September and love the device. One of my favorite gaming devices in a long time.

 

[Halfmunch]

Holy shit, this is huge. Congrats Nintendo.

It's always nice to see a struggling company rises again.

Haha funny comment, Nintendo is far from a struggling company even if the WiiU was not as successful as they would have liked.

 

[AmFreak]

The switch is selling well because it’s a new console in the middle of a generation with some pretty great launch year software...

... and because it's continually supply constrained.
What it sold in ~6 months did the ps4 in ~6 weeks(!)
How well it really does will be seen next year when supply will outstrip demand.

 

[erlim]

You can’t possibly believe this to be true? As of middle of July the PS4 was just short of 19 million in the US alone and Worldwide it’s closing in on 60 million units sold.

The switch is selling well because it’s a new console in the middle of a generation with some pretty great launch year software... Switch lifetime sales will probably sit in the ballpark of 50-60million sold in total maybe getting close to 70-80million but it is assuredly not able to catch up any time soon or ever to PS4 sales to date.

I guess all I have to go on is PS3 eventually getting real close to 360. Xbox360 had a huge lead, PS3 had really poor word of mouth and media outlets lambasted it, but it still kept making gains as insane as it seemed.

Switch is a cultural phenomenon, and it can't stay on the shelves. It's getting many of the same AAA games as PS4, plus first party games that are going to be talked about for the rest of our lives. If neogaf is any indication, people actually FAVOR third party games on the experience on switch; whether it be portability or gyro aim---it's giving gamers a whole new way to fall in love with games again, and that's incredibly meaningful.

 

[silva1991]

I think Switch will outsell 3ds but not ps4. Ps4 will outsell the ps1 and wii worldwide.

Yeah I believe so too. Switch being way more powerful the 3DS makes it more attractive and might sell more than 3DS, but Switch needs to steal millions upon millions PS4 and Xbox fans to outsell the PS4 imo and I don't see that happening outside of some enthusiasts.

That being said, two 100+ million selling consoles this gen will be fucking awesome.

Anyways I was doubting the switch for the longest time and I'm ready to have some crow nugget.

 

[Instro]

It's unlikely to happen, but it absolutely could. Switch would need even stronger third party support and at least one new breakout Nintendo IP for it to happen.

Frankly we don't even know how Switch hardware will progress from here. Like is Nintendo even operating on traditional generations still? Probably, but who knows. That's definitely a potential wrinkle for sales discussions and comparisons though.

 

[DigitalScrap]

... and because it's continually supply constrained.
What it sold in ~6 months did the ps4 in ~6 weeks(!)
How well it really does will be seen next year when supply will outstrip demand.

Are you assuming that Nintendo won’t have supply? They seem to have gotten past those issues from what I have seen.

 

[J@hranimo]

Haha funny comment, Nintendo is far from a struggling company even if the WiiU was not as successful as they would have liked.

Yeah, I think they meant "struggling console"

 

[Instro]

... and because it's continually supply constrained.
What it sold in ~6 months did the ps4 in ~6 weeks(!)
How well it really does will be seen next year when supply will outstrip demand.

I'm not sure what this means. When did that happen?

 

[Renna Hazel]

Every new mainline Pokémon outsold Super Mario 3D Land (the best selling 3D game, unless you combine Super Mario 64 and DS) in their first quarter.
It won't outsell all of them combined, ever, but it will likely easily outdo any of them.

Galaxy is actually the top selling 3D Mario game, but I was including Mario Kart as well. I also expect Odyssey to be the top selling 3D Mario.

I'm not sure what this means. When did that happen?

PS4 sold 2 million in America in it's first 6 weeks. Those 6 weeks were the holiday season though, that makes a big difference.

 

[erlim]

... and because it's continually supply constrained.
What it sold in ~6 months did the ps4 in ~6 weeks(!)
How well it really does will be seen next year when supply will outstrip demand.

I mean, I don't see demand slowing down because of supply. If anything, it will just increase as more people experience how amazing Switch is and pass on
the word of mouth. How long was it before anybody was able to get a wii on a whim? I imagine Switch is going to have this issue for a long time to come.

 

[AmFreak]

Are you assuming that Nintendo won’t have supply? They seem to have gotten past those issues from what I have seen.

Won't have supply when?
All i know is that they didn't have enough supply in the past months.
Amazon currently has the grey in stock the blue/red not.
And we are approaching christmas season which means a huge spike in demand.
I have no idea when supply will outstrip demand, but next year is probably a good bet.

I'm not sure what this means. When did that happen?

PS4 launch / Switch launch.

 

[De_Legend]

Cool, will wait for a 50$ price drop though, and hopefully no bending and such this time, lol.

 

[watdaeff4]

You can't possibly believe this to be true? As of middle of July the PS4 was just short of 19 million in the US alone and Worldwide it's closing in on 60 million units sold.

The switch is selling well because it's a new console in the middle of a generation with some pretty great launch year software... Switch lifetime sales will probably sit in the ballpark of 50-60million sold in total maybe getting close to 70-80million but it is assuredly not able to catch up any time soon or ever to PS4 sales to date.

It can't have great launch year software because in all the other threads the rhetoric is that Switch owners are starving for games.

Spoiler

BTW, regarding the lifetime sales, I think you are in the ballpark.

It's unlikely to happen, but it absolutely could. Switch would need even stronger third party support and at least one new breakout Nintendo IP for it to happen.

If the bolded happens, I absolutely agree with you that it could. I'm just not convinced yet. Maybe I'm too pessimistic but I don't think it will happen.

If it does get strong 3rd party support (including from the West). I think it has a great chance.

Spoiler

Still have lotsa tests to pass. /s

 

[Smiles and Cries]

I thought the results for NPD was today, guess I was wrong, So when is the details?

 

[RoseBell69]

There's so much to play on the Switch and so little time, lol. I'm loving this, no complaint from me!

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I thought the results for NPD was today, guess I was wrong, So when is the details?

No public NPD report until Friday or Monday.

.

 

[jdstorm]

It's unlikely to happen, but it absolutely could. Switch would need even stronger third party support and at least one new breakout Nintendo IP for it to happen.

Honestly, this is what i'm most excited about. It seems like the success of Splatoon 1 pulled Nintendo out of a bit of a rut and has encouraged them as a company to push the limits of their own creativity. Its should be really amazing to see what they have in store once all of those games are ready to show the general public

 

[zelas]

It has a ways to go, but the insane momentum of Switch might put it ahead of PS4 for lifetime sales. I mean it sounds crazy now, but Switch has shattered expectations left and right. Likely? No. But it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Let's be reasonable here. To sell faster than Ps4 the switch has to be another Wii, which was selling out WHILE selling more units. And right now the Switch is in a hole compared to where the ps4 was so it'd have to sell even faster than the wii. Are there metrics that put the Switch at that level as of right now of are you just tbasing your statement on a feeling in your gut?