On steam it's going to be a big game. All Bethesda games sells really well on pc.
I guess this will be the real test to see if day 1 gamepass cannibalizes sales for all games.
I wonder if the game is going to get less understanding over Bethesda quality control issues at launch because of it now being exclusive and a first party game too.
If all-in they've spent $200m on the game between development and marketing, I have my doubts the game is definitely going to make back that money (in the first 12months), going by their own projection of losing 10m PS5 game sales from the FTC lawsuit info.
10m sales would represent Sony's 80% worldwide market share - I suspect- meaning Microsoft's 20% at a similar coverage would account for 4.5m on Xbox. If even half of those players play via gamepass, and the B2P customers each pay an average price between $70 and $40, so $55, then that's only $124m would be recouped, meaning that they'd need at least 1.3m PC sales - that aren't gamepass either - just to break even, which with day 1 gamepass conditioning Xbox/PC gamers not to B2P Xbox first party games, I'm not sure that's a dead cert, unless the lost sales from changing to exclusive convert lots of lost PlayStation game sales to xbox game sales.
From a games industry business angle how Startfield does in actual game sales is going to be interesting IMO