Diablo Rosso
Member
There's one game no one has mentioned, Gran Turismo 6. That's a definite hit, because it's Gran Turismo.
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Your predictions for this fall's sales successes and bombas
- Thread starter AHA-Lambda
- Start date
famousmortimer
Banned
Puppeteer is supposedly very awesome. Talked to someone who played a recent build and he couldn't stop gushing.
I know this is a sales thread, but there ya go.
I don't think it will sell that great, but it's also not particularly expensive so I don't know what would constitute a bomb or not.
I think knack will sell poorly. I think Drive Club will have low numbers due to PS+ and if people do buy it they will probably just buy the digital add on to make the PS+ version the full game - which won't get tracked by NPD/etc.
I think Killzone will have ok sales.
Madden/Fifa/BF4/COD/AC4 will all do as expected.
Watch Dogs will be a hit. I question whether it will actually be a good game... but i think it will sell well.
I think Beyond is going to bomb both critically and sales.
I think wind waker will do ok... not great.
Mario 3d land will be big
I know this is a sales thread, but there ya go.
I don't think it will sell that great, but it's also not particularly expensive so I don't know what would constitute a bomb or not.
I think knack will sell poorly. I think Drive Club will have low numbers due to PS+ and if people do buy it they will probably just buy the digital add on to make the PS+ version the full game - which won't get tracked by NPD/etc.
I think Killzone will have ok sales.
Madden/Fifa/BF4/COD/AC4 will all do as expected.
Watch Dogs will be a hit. I question whether it will actually be a good game... but i think it will sell well.
I think Beyond is going to bomb both critically and sales.
I think wind waker will do ok... not great.
Mario 3d land will be big
Any pre Wind Waker HD Wii U games will bomb no doubt.
I think Battlefield has a good chance of outselling CoD on the next gen consoles.
Saints Row will definitely bomb because it's too similar to 3 and GTA 5 is only a month away.
Pokémon X/Y will be the best selling games on 3DS for 2013, possibly top 3 overall.
Watch Dogs will be the best selling game on both PS4 and Xbone
I think Battlefield has a good chance of outselling CoD on the next gen consoles.
Saints Row will definitely bomb because it's too similar to 3 and GTA 5 is only a month away.
Pokémon X/Y will be the best selling games on 3DS for 2013, possibly top 3 overall.
Watch Dogs will be the best selling game on both PS4 and Xbone
ElectronicOldMen
Banned
Saint's Row 4 - Minor Hit - Won't sell nearly as much as GTA V, might not even do SR3's numbers, but should sell well enough that Deep Silver won't have regretted spending the money picking it up.
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified - Not Great - Won't sell well, not nearly long enough to market it properly, but I think the fact that 2K managed to salvage this into something they can get any money from at all after how long it's been on the backburner is probably a positive. Will probably be fairly well received, too, it looks really solid.
Splinter Cell: Blacklist - Moderate - Conviction sold pretty solid numbers, and I don't really see why Blacklist won't sell alright either. Won't be a blockbuster by any means, though, and the somewhat wayward tone of the marketing has hardly helped convince core fans of the series.
Lost Planet 3 - Bomb - I forgot this existed until you posted this thread, which, whilst only anecdotal evidence, gives you a pretty good idea of how well Capcom have been marketing it. Not expecting it to do much better critically than 2 either.
Rayman Legends - Better than Origins - The fact that it isn't Wii U exclusive anymore, which would have completely killed its chances, and is coming out before instead of after the big rush, plus the incredibly positive reception Origins got despite its sales, there's no real reason this shouldn't easily outsell its predecessor, even if it isn't really a hit in the wider scheme of things.
The Wonderful 101 - Bomb - It'll probably be great, but the way that other Wii U exclusives, and other Platinum games for that matter, have been selling... nah...
GTA V - Massive Hit - Interest in the GTA series clearly hasn't waned one bit, and the Rockstar marketing train is pretty much at full speed. Might outsell CoD Ghosts, might not, the fact that it is PS3/360 only might not help, but will still do gangbusters regardless.
Beyond: Two Souls - Not Great - Won't sell as well as Heavy Rain, too late in the console cycle and too close to all the rest of the big releases to make an impact. Will suffer much more heavily than GTA V for not being on next-gen consoles too. Ellen Page, though.
Batman: Arkham Origins - Moderate - Not dissimilar numbers to Arkham City, albeit with likely a much less positive critical reception. It'll do pretty well, no more, no less.
ACIV: Black Flag - Hit-ish - Definitely won't do AC3 numbers, the reaction to that game in hindsight have made sure of that, and I think Ubsioft have changed their predictions to reflect that. Will still do well, regardless, Revelations numbers would be a good bet, and will probably be better received than 3 in general.
Battlefield 4 - Hit - Battlefield 3 sold brilliantly on consoles, and the fact that next-gen versions will finally be up to par with PC will be enough of a leap for that market that BF4 will sell just as well, if not better. Appetite for military shooters still hasn't waned, it seems. Will make the transition to next-gen pretty seamlessly.
CoD Ghosts - Hit - Might slightly buck the downward trend in sales of the series due to just being on more platforms, but given the lukewarm levels of interest going in this year, I somehow doubt it. Will still sell very well regardless, that and GTA will be the two biggest sellers for sure, but I don't see this series lasting that long into next gen.
Watch Dogs - Hit - Not much doubt about this doing well, really. Will sell better than AC4, will end up being, with BF4, one of the non-exclusives that people pick up on launch which people pick up for the pretty graphics of next gen.
Wolfenstein: The New Order - Bomb - This is coming out this year? Damn, quick turnaround if so, but I kinda forsee it slipping into next. Regardless, no reason why this would do well, much like every other Starbreeze/ex-Starbreeze FPS which comes along.
Gran Turismo 6 - Moderate - GT games, always sell well, but the fact that this is a PS3 exclusive coming seemingly after or at least very close to the PS4 launch is just slightly worrying.
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 - Moderate - Didn't the first game sell pretty well? Whilst marketing on this has been... minimal, let's just say, the crossover from people who liked the first game should be enough to sustain it.
PS4 Launch Games - Killzone SF will do pretty well, much like Resistance before it, the combination of it being a flashy, pretty shooter and hopefully solid at launch and it not being in a new IP will do it pretty good. DriveClub will almost certainly sell less than GT6, which isn't a good thing at all, but will still do OK, Knack... I don't know, I can't see it doing well at all. Sure, there's a children's market, but PS2-ish mascot games have lost basically all staying power over the last generation, and it honestly looks, from what I've seen, really average.
Xbone Launch Games - Forza 5 will be the best selling racing game of the lot, and will probably outsell 3 and 4 comfortably, Killer Instinct looks surprisingly solid for a Double Helix game and should do pretty well if it's up to snuff, Dead Rising 3 has zombies in it, which was apparently enough to sell a good amount of copies of 2, so that should be fine. Ryse might do OK, but it entirely comes down to the quality of the game, if it's as good as it looked at E3, it'll bomb, if Crytek managed to make it good in the meantime, it won't, simple as.
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified - Not Great - Won't sell well, not nearly long enough to market it properly, but I think the fact that 2K managed to salvage this into something they can get any money from at all after how long it's been on the backburner is probably a positive. Will probably be fairly well received, too, it looks really solid.
Splinter Cell: Blacklist - Moderate - Conviction sold pretty solid numbers, and I don't really see why Blacklist won't sell alright either. Won't be a blockbuster by any means, though, and the somewhat wayward tone of the marketing has hardly helped convince core fans of the series.
Lost Planet 3 - Bomb - I forgot this existed until you posted this thread, which, whilst only anecdotal evidence, gives you a pretty good idea of how well Capcom have been marketing it. Not expecting it to do much better critically than 2 either.
Rayman Legends - Better than Origins - The fact that it isn't Wii U exclusive anymore, which would have completely killed its chances, and is coming out before instead of after the big rush, plus the incredibly positive reception Origins got despite its sales, there's no real reason this shouldn't easily outsell its predecessor, even if it isn't really a hit in the wider scheme of things.
The Wonderful 101 - Bomb - It'll probably be great, but the way that other Wii U exclusives, and other Platinum games for that matter, have been selling... nah...
GTA V - Massive Hit - Interest in the GTA series clearly hasn't waned one bit, and the Rockstar marketing train is pretty much at full speed. Might outsell CoD Ghosts, might not, the fact that it is PS3/360 only might not help, but will still do gangbusters regardless.
Beyond: Two Souls - Not Great - Won't sell as well as Heavy Rain, too late in the console cycle and too close to all the rest of the big releases to make an impact. Will suffer much more heavily than GTA V for not being on next-gen consoles too. Ellen Page, though.
Batman: Arkham Origins - Moderate - Not dissimilar numbers to Arkham City, albeit with likely a much less positive critical reception. It'll do pretty well, no more, no less.
ACIV: Black Flag - Hit-ish - Definitely won't do AC3 numbers, the reaction to that game in hindsight have made sure of that, and I think Ubsioft have changed their predictions to reflect that. Will still do well, regardless, Revelations numbers would be a good bet, and will probably be better received than 3 in general.
Battlefield 4 - Hit - Battlefield 3 sold brilliantly on consoles, and the fact that next-gen versions will finally be up to par with PC will be enough of a leap for that market that BF4 will sell just as well, if not better. Appetite for military shooters still hasn't waned, it seems. Will make the transition to next-gen pretty seamlessly.
CoD Ghosts - Hit - Might slightly buck the downward trend in sales of the series due to just being on more platforms, but given the lukewarm levels of interest going in this year, I somehow doubt it. Will still sell very well regardless, that and GTA will be the two biggest sellers for sure, but I don't see this series lasting that long into next gen.
Watch Dogs - Hit - Not much doubt about this doing well, really. Will sell better than AC4, will end up being, with BF4, one of the non-exclusives that people pick up on launch which people pick up for the pretty graphics of next gen.
Wolfenstein: The New Order - Bomb - This is coming out this year? Damn, quick turnaround if so, but I kinda forsee it slipping into next. Regardless, no reason why this would do well, much like every other Starbreeze/ex-Starbreeze FPS which comes along.
Gran Turismo 6 - Moderate - GT games, always sell well, but the fact that this is a PS3 exclusive coming seemingly after or at least very close to the PS4 launch is just slightly worrying.
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 - Moderate - Didn't the first game sell pretty well? Whilst marketing on this has been... minimal, let's just say, the crossover from people who liked the first game should be enough to sustain it.
PS4 Launch Games - Killzone SF will do pretty well, much like Resistance before it, the combination of it being a flashy, pretty shooter and hopefully solid at launch and it not being in a new IP will do it pretty good. DriveClub will almost certainly sell less than GT6, which isn't a good thing at all, but will still do OK, Knack... I don't know, I can't see it doing well at all. Sure, there's a children's market, but PS2-ish mascot games have lost basically all staying power over the last generation, and it honestly looks, from what I've seen, really average.
Xbone Launch Games - Forza 5 will be the best selling racing game of the lot, and will probably outsell 3 and 4 comfortably, Killer Instinct looks surprisingly solid for a Double Helix game and should do pretty well if it's up to snuff, Dead Rising 3 has zombies in it, which was apparently enough to sell a good amount of copies of 2, so that should be fine. Ryse might do OK, but it entirely comes down to the quality of the game, if it's as good as it looked at E3, it'll bomb, if Crytek managed to make it good in the meantime, it won't, simple as.
strangecloud
Member
This thread has brought to light a new concern for me. I am really excited for the new splinter cell for no reason other then I just love splinter cell games. I was there from the beginning the OG splinter cell on Xbox appreciating the Jean Claude Van Damme splits and hobo can throwing for distractions. I adjusted to the change on the new conviction and found even though it was not true to the formula, it was still fun in its own right. However, the price did drop quickly and I am now reconsidering my preorder, Damn you GAF!
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
I think Killzone will be Vitas 1st game to sell over a million.
Tearaway = bomba, like LBP Vita.
Tearaway = bomba, like LBP Vita.
digoutyoursoul
Member
Lost Planet 3 - Will deteriorate like a turd dipped in bleach
GTA V - Massive sales. Can see it beating IV over time.
Watch Dogs - Will perform well but not to the level Ubisoft is expecting
Killzone - Ok
Ryse - A fart in the wind
GTA V - Massive sales. Can see it beating IV over time.
Watch Dogs - Will perform well but not to the level Ubisoft is expecting
Killzone - Ok
Ryse - A fart in the wind
Lost Planet 3 - Bomb - Super Bomb
Saints Row 4 - Hit - Not going to reach 5 million units like SR3 but it'll be the best selling game of august and move about 2-3million units
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified - Bomb - I think it'll get good reviews but will bomb ~ 750K units sold total
Rayman Legends - moderate Hit - Will probably do better than Origins but gonna top out at 1-2 million
Splinter Cell: Blacklist - moderate hit - from word of mouth this one will be a surprise hit
GTA V - Hit - Come on is this even a question
Batman Arkham Origins - Hit - this is going to be pretty big not City level but more like Asylum 2-2.5 million
Beyond: Two Souls - Bomb - I don't know what heavy rain sold like, but this game is going to be trash
Battlefield 4 - Hit - Huge hit, it's going to be near CoD numbers (ghost not MW)
Call of Duty: Ghosts - Hit - still gonna be a hit but some drop off with more people embracing BF4
Assassin's Creed IV - Hit - Not going to do AC3 numbers (12 million copies are you serious!?) but still 7.5 million over it's lifetime is definitely doable
Watch Dogs - Hit - I think AC4 will cannabilize some of its sells but it'll sell 7 million
Wolfenstein: The New Order - Bomb - hah, no one cares about this junk
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 - Bomb - Not sure about this one, LoS is the best selling castlevania this one sells about half as much, is that considered a bomb?
Saints Row 4 - Hit - Not going to reach 5 million units like SR3 but it'll be the best selling game of august and move about 2-3million units
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified - Bomb - I think it'll get good reviews but will bomb ~ 750K units sold total
Rayman Legends - moderate Hit - Will probably do better than Origins but gonna top out at 1-2 million
Splinter Cell: Blacklist - moderate hit - from word of mouth this one will be a surprise hit
GTA V - Hit - Come on is this even a question
Batman Arkham Origins - Hit - this is going to be pretty big not City level but more like Asylum 2-2.5 million
Beyond: Two Souls - Bomb - I don't know what heavy rain sold like, but this game is going to be trash
Battlefield 4 - Hit - Huge hit, it's going to be near CoD numbers (ghost not MW)
Call of Duty: Ghosts - Hit - still gonna be a hit but some drop off with more people embracing BF4
Assassin's Creed IV - Hit - Not going to do AC3 numbers (12 million copies are you serious!?) but still 7.5 million over it's lifetime is definitely doable
Watch Dogs - Hit - I think AC4 will cannabilize some of its sells but it'll sell 7 million
Wolfenstein: The New Order - Bomb - hah, no one cares about this junk
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 - Bomb - Not sure about this one, LoS is the best selling castlevania this one sells about half as much, is that considered a bomb?
TheRealTalker
Banned
surprised at the puppeteer predictions.... even though I like the game and I'm getting it day 1 I would expect it to not sale that much copies (for me I think it will sell at arround
200 000 hard copies and I not sure about digital)
also within launch week
Battlefield 4 ~ 2mill
Cod Ghost ~ exceeds blops 2's launch #'s
Watch Dogs ~ 1.5mill
Beyond 2 Souls 1mill by the end of the year plus q1
Lost Planet 3 ~Bomb
Saint Rows 3 ~ will lose potiental sales to GTA V
GTA V ~ 3mill not as high as COD
Edit:
I also think Killzone Shadow Fall will do okay at first and then increase significantly by new adopters of the ps4 who hasn't played Killzone series... therefore okay sales but eventually an increase fan base for a good potential sequel
200 000 hard copies and I not sure about digital)
also within launch week
Battlefield 4 ~ 2mill
Cod Ghost ~ exceeds blops 2's launch #'s
Watch Dogs ~ 1.5mill
Beyond 2 Souls 1mill by the end of the year plus q1
Lost Planet 3 ~Bomb
Saint Rows 3 ~ will lose potiental sales to GTA V
GTA V ~ 3mill not as high as COD
Edit:
I also think Killzone Shadow Fall will do okay at first and then increase significantly by new adopters of the ps4 who hasn't played Killzone series... therefore okay sales but eventually an increase fan base for a good potential sequel
I don't know why so many people think Beyond: Two Souls will bomb. Didn't Heavy Rain sell 2 million copies? I doubt it will sell that much, due to it being released so late in the console cycle, but I still expect 1 million +.
Also, it has plenty of star power behind it, which should help a bit.
Also, it has plenty of star power behind it, which should help a bit.
PotionBleue
Member
Please, don't forget Monster Hunter 4. Sounds like HUGE hit in Japan.
Also Just Dance 2014, hit as usual.
Also Just Dance 2014, hit as usual.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
The Wonderful 101 copies sold
Bombastein: The New Bargain Bin Order
The Bomba: XCOM Discounted at a store near you
Lost Bomba 3
Splinter Cell: Bombalist
I'm sorry for this post
Bombastein: The New Bargain Bin Order
The Bomba: XCOM Discounted at a store near you
Lost Bomba 3
Splinter Cell: Bombalist
I'm sorry for this post
ChawlieTheFair
pip pip cheerio you slags!
I agree with OP besides Rayman, that will totally bomb. Totally forgot about Wolfenstein, which makes me sad cause it actually looks pretty damn good (I loved RAGE).
It's all relative to publisher expectation and game's budget ( production and marketing ).
Very Successful - Watch Dogs.
Within Expectations - FF X/X-2 , KH 1.5, Batman Arkham Origins, CoD Ghost, Battlefield, Dragon Crown, Tales of Xillia, Rayman, GTA V
Slight Bomba - Puppeteer, Beyond: Two Souls, The Bureau: XCOM Declassified, Saint Rows, Castlevania LoS 2
Huge Bomba - W101, Lost Planet 3,
Very Successful - Watch Dogs.
Within Expectations - FF X/X-2 , KH 1.5, Batman Arkham Origins, CoD Ghost, Battlefield, Dragon Crown, Tales of Xillia, Rayman, GTA V
Slight Bomba - Puppeteer, Beyond: Two Souls, The Bureau: XCOM Declassified, Saint Rows, Castlevania LoS 2
Huge Bomba - W101, Lost Planet 3,
D
Deleted member 125677
Unconfirmed Member
I think the biggest hits, relatively speaking, will be GTA V and Pokemon X/Y.
I think Rayman Legends will disappoint, as will Wonderful 101 (unfortunately).
I think Rayman Legends will disappoint, as will Wonderful 101 (unfortunately).
Watch Dog will cultivate a brand and you'll get your annualized sequels, it is the most successful story here. It's Ubisoft way of rewarding the hardcore audience for viral advertising the game for them. Remember all the recent petition they want you to do to put the game on PC? Thank you for your participation in the marketing campaign.
Lost Planet 3 - Bomb
Saints Row 4 - Bomb
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified - Bomb
Rayman Legends - Bomb
Splinter Cell: Blacklist - Bomb
GTA V - Hit
Batman Arkham Origins - Hit
Beyond: Two Souls - Bomb
Battlefield 4 - Hit
Call of Duty: Ghosts - Hit
Assassin's Creed IV - Hit
Watch Dogs - Bomb
Wolfenstein: The New Order - Bomb
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 - Bomb
Saints Row 4 - Bomb
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified - Bomb
Rayman Legends - Bomb
Splinter Cell: Blacklist - Bomb
GTA V - Hit
Batman Arkham Origins - Hit
Beyond: Two Souls - Bomb
Battlefield 4 - Hit
Call of Duty: Ghosts - Hit
Assassin's Creed IV - Hit
Watch Dogs - Bomb
Wolfenstein: The New Order - Bomb
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 - Bomb
TW101 is going to bomb -so hard- 
It's going to be sad if it's outperformed by Wii Fit U since Wii Fit U doesn't really have a reliable audience anymore.
AC4- Moderate success.
Wonderful 101- Huge bomb.
Rayman- Good sales.
Watch Dogs- Moderate success.
Sonic Lost World- Hit on 3DS, not sure about WiiU
Pokemon X and Y- Huge hit
GTAV- Huge hit
Pikimin 3- Just okay
Splinter Cell- Bomb, I think
Mario & Luigi- Good numbers, but it won't outsell Sticker Star >
Zelda WW- Hit
3D World- Good sales
Donkey Country Returns- Good sales
Wii Party- Bomb
Dragon's Crown- Bomb-ish
Tales of Xillia- Okay sales
Battlefield 4- Good sales
CoD- Hit
It's going to be sad if it's outperformed by Wii Fit U since Wii Fit U doesn't really have a reliable audience anymore.
AC4- Moderate success.
Wonderful 101- Huge bomb.
Rayman- Good sales.
Watch Dogs- Moderate success.
Sonic Lost World- Hit on 3DS, not sure about WiiU
Pokemon X and Y- Huge hit
GTAV- Huge hit
Pikimin 3- Just okay
Splinter Cell- Bomb, I think
Mario & Luigi- Good numbers, but it won't outsell Sticker Star >
Zelda WW- Hit
3D World- Good sales
Donkey Country Returns- Good sales
Wii Party- Bomb
Dragon's Crown- Bomb-ish
Tales of Xillia- Okay sales
Battlefield 4- Good sales
CoD- Hit
Lol. Wanna bet? Watch Dogs is gonna be huge.
Also Splinter Cell is going to sell fine. Will be a huge hit? No but none of them have been. Except the first one which only sold 3 million on one platform.
Actually Conviction sold much better than the critical favorite, Chaos Theory which sold just over a million on Xbox. Conviction was only release on 360 and PC and sold over 2 million alone on 360. The series has never been a massive success so anyone who is saying its going to bomb or citing sales of Conviction as proof has no idea what they're talking about. Just because a small portion of people on the Internet don't like it doesn't mean much of anything.
Snowden's Secret
Banned
What range are we using for "bomb" for TW101? Not all bombs are created equal.
I could see TW101 doing 2mil lifetime worldwide which I think would be great but would look terrible on a monthly/weekly chart.
I could see TW101 doing 2mil lifetime worldwide which I think would be great but would look terrible on a monthly/weekly chart.
And lol at everyone saying CoD: Ghosts will be anything but a hit.
The game will still sell over 10 million and I imagine the pressence on next gen consoles might even boost it.
This is coming from someone who firmly believe that once Titanfall releases COD is in trouble. But that ain't this year.
The game will still sell over 10 million and I imagine the pressence on next gen consoles might even boost it.
This is coming from someone who firmly believe that once Titanfall releases COD is in trouble. But that ain't this year.
Rayman Legends: Bad sales at first but will do alright lifetime
GTAV: Massive hit. I could see it possibly doing better than CoD this year
CoD: Ghosts: Big drop for the series but still a massive seller
ACIV: I think this one will do OK but will also have a huge drop. I don't know a single person that was satisfied with AC3.
Watch_Dogs:I could see this doing better than ACIV. Much more exciting and should be a good start for the franchise
BF4: Not quite CoD numbers but it'll be close. Bigger debut than BF3
Pokemon: Printing money and selling 3DS
Mario 3D World: Huge tie in with Wii U owners but won't spark sales of the console much
Killzone: Best selling PS4 launch title and one of the largest debuts for the series
Knack: Bomb. I expect to see it for free on Plus in a few months
Beyond: Not as strong initial sales as Heavy Rain but will do OK over time
DriveClub: No one will buy this at retail. Really curious to see if we'll get numbers for the upgrade to full version from PS+
Forza: Best selling XBO launch title by far
Ryse: OK but not great
Dead Rising 3: Weakest selling XBO exclusive but I think it'll do better than Knack
LoS2: Bomb and forgotten among everything else. I loved the first and I can't even remember this is coming out. Lack of a next gen version will hurt it. It would have really stood out as a unique title among next gen launch line ups.
Arkham Origins: Weakest sales for the series. Also could have used a next gen version for the same reasons as LoS2.
GTAV: Massive hit. I could see it possibly doing better than CoD this year
CoD: Ghosts: Big drop for the series but still a massive seller
ACIV: I think this one will do OK but will also have a huge drop. I don't know a single person that was satisfied with AC3.
Watch_Dogs:I could see this doing better than ACIV. Much more exciting and should be a good start for the franchise
BF4: Not quite CoD numbers but it'll be close. Bigger debut than BF3
Pokemon: Printing money and selling 3DS
Mario 3D World: Huge tie in with Wii U owners but won't spark sales of the console much
Killzone: Best selling PS4 launch title and one of the largest debuts for the series
Knack: Bomb. I expect to see it for free on Plus in a few months
Beyond: Not as strong initial sales as Heavy Rain but will do OK over time
DriveClub: No one will buy this at retail. Really curious to see if we'll get numbers for the upgrade to full version from PS+
Forza: Best selling XBO launch title by far
Ryse: OK but not great
Dead Rising 3: Weakest selling XBO exclusive but I think it'll do better than Knack
LoS2: Bomb and forgotten among everything else. I loved the first and I can't even remember this is coming out. Lack of a next gen version will hurt it. It would have really stood out as a unique title among next gen launch line ups.
Arkham Origins: Weakest sales for the series. Also could have used a next gen version for the same reasons as LoS2.
dragonbane
Member
People did the same for Heavy Rain. The wall of shame was quite amazing, so I already saved this thread in case the same happens. Pre-order numbers seem to be looking alright so far, even after the unfortunate E3 showing. So the only thing left determining its success are the reviews now. Which are mostly influenced by how much the individual reviewer enjoyed the story - gameplay problems are not going to matter much here. In case it is good enough and gets 10/9/8 scores, Sony should be able to release some pretty good ads putting the spotlight on Page and Dafoe and the positive reviews. Next gen or not, 2 million lifetime sales should be locked then, which would be good enough. Maybe even 3m.
ArmA III will do well, seeing as it's been on the best-sellers on Steam since the Alpha was available allllll the way back in March.
Currently it's slated for it, but Mirror of Fate was slated to be an October 2012 release, only to become a March 2013 release. Either way, LoS 2 is coming out at a bad time. Either it's launching during the wave of the new consoles or it launches next year when people will be picking their 'final' new releases for the current platform, and I think for most people that game will be Dark Souls II.
Currently it's slated for it, but Mirror of Fate was slated to be an October 2012 release, only to become a March 2013 release. Either way, LoS 2 is coming out at a bad time. Either it's launching during the wave of the new consoles or it launches next year when people will be picking their 'final' new releases for the current platform, and I think for most people that game will be Dark Souls II.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
My problem with this type of thread is that people try to put every game on the same level. W101 is not expected to sell GTA numbers, Puppeteer isn't expected to do millions.
There are games coming out that if they sell 5 million copies it will be considered a failure and others that if it sells 500k it was a resounding success.
There are games coming out that if they sell 5 million copies it will be considered a failure and others that if it sells 500k it was a resounding success.
I don't know... I can see Blacklist receiving generally warm and positive reception from critics and the gaming community despite the terrible initial marketing. Is Ubisoft projecting more than 2 million sales on this one? I can at least see SC hit that target next year.
Battlefield 4 will perform better than Battlefield 3 thanks to next-gen consoles.
Assured bomba - Lol Planet 3
Battlefield 4 will perform better than Battlefield 3 thanks to next-gen consoles.
Assured bomba - Lol Planet 3
Samir Sedlar
Member
Lost Planet 3 - Bombing, --- Capcom will probably just forget about the game in their reports, probably the whole franchise will die.
Saints Row 4 - Hit --- I got a call from a friend telling me he played SR3 a couple of days ago, and it was so much fun that he is considering buying SR4, I feel it will be somewhat moderate, cause I don't think it will review well ((using old assets and whatnot))
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified - Bombing - another game that will be totally forgotten, I can't find people who are really excited about it.
Rayman Legends - No Idea, not following it.
Splinter Cell: Blacklist - On Par - it got a great marketing push, from previews, to Spy vs Merc, to events, it will review really well, but it won't be the 5 Million game, it will probably be on par with every single SC title released, selling 2Millions at best.
GTA V - Biggest Hit - No need to think about it.
Batman Arkham Origins - Moderate - I think this game will be very good, it won't be Arkham City, Probably sell 5 Millions or something, some people are nervous about Warner Bros Montreal, and the game probably won't push the franchise forward so may review moderately.
Beyond: Two Souls - Moderate - At best will perform as Heavy Rain, not every one will be keen on the style of its gameplay.
Battlefield 4 - Big Hit - EA is probably going to push it so hard, and more and more people will shift ti BF4, not to mention it will probably win next gen.
Call of Duty: Ghosts - Big Hit - it is CoD, nothing will change that, but I expect it to sell like MW3.
Assassin's Creed IV - Big Hit - If I am not mistake, the number of people going crazy about being pirates and having naval battles, are way more than those are not excited, I am for one more of a ninja guy, but I think ACIV may do greatly.
Watch Dogs - Hit - Another game that Ubisoft is pushing really hard with the marketing, the whole hacking has probably attracted alot of people, it will sell good, but there will be disappointment after release ((just a feeling))
Wolfenstein: The New Order - Bombing - being a SP only game and coming out in a time where BF4 & CoD are released won't help it, then again who knows I didn't expect Far Cry 3 to sell that much.
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Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 - Moderate Hit - this is more of a hoping rather than an expectation, seeing this year releases from DmC & MGS:R I am not that optimistic, especially since I went through the same shock with DarkSiders II, the various posting of it bombing kinda breaks my heart, I hope this sells well cause to me Mercury Steam is doing a great job, 2.5 Million would be good enough, anyway we will see.
Saints Row 4 - Hit --- I got a call from a friend telling me he played SR3 a couple of days ago, and it was so much fun that he is considering buying SR4, I feel it will be somewhat moderate, cause I don't think it will review well ((using old assets and whatnot))
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified - Bombing - another game that will be totally forgotten, I can't find people who are really excited about it.
Rayman Legends - No Idea, not following it.
Splinter Cell: Blacklist - On Par - it got a great marketing push, from previews, to Spy vs Merc, to events, it will review really well, but it won't be the 5 Million game, it will probably be on par with every single SC title released, selling 2Millions at best.
GTA V - Biggest Hit - No need to think about it.
Batman Arkham Origins - Moderate - I think this game will be very good, it won't be Arkham City, Probably sell 5 Millions or something, some people are nervous about Warner Bros Montreal, and the game probably won't push the franchise forward so may review moderately.
Beyond: Two Souls - Moderate - At best will perform as Heavy Rain, not every one will be keen on the style of its gameplay.
Battlefield 4 - Big Hit - EA is probably going to push it so hard, and more and more people will shift ti BF4, not to mention it will probably win next gen.
Call of Duty: Ghosts - Big Hit - it is CoD, nothing will change that, but I expect it to sell like MW3.
Assassin's Creed IV - Big Hit - If I am not mistake, the number of people going crazy about being pirates and having naval battles, are way more than those are not excited, I am for one more of a ninja guy, but I think ACIV may do greatly.
Watch Dogs - Hit - Another game that Ubisoft is pushing really hard with the marketing, the whole hacking has probably attracted alot of people, it will sell good, but there will be disappointment after release ((just a feeling))
Wolfenstein: The New Order - Bombing - being a SP only game and coming out in a time where BF4 & CoD are released won't help it, then again who knows I didn't expect Far Cry 3 to sell that much.
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Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 - Moderate Hit - this is more of a hoping rather than an expectation, seeing this year releases from DmC & MGS:R I am not that optimistic, especially since I went through the same shock with DarkSiders II, the various posting of it bombing kinda breaks my heart, I hope this sells well cause to me Mercury Steam is doing a great job, 2.5 Million would be good enough, anyway we will see.
Nowhere Man
Member
I agree with your list OP. I'll add:
Dragon's Crown, Killer is Dead, Xillia and Puppeteer - All bomb. Which makes me very, very sad.
Dragon's Crown, Killer is Dead, Xillia and Puppeteer - All bomb. Which makes me very, very sad.
Fifa 14 - Hit. Soccer is a very popular sport.
grosvenor_92
Member
SR 4 - not a huge hit but it will sell enough I think
Blacklist - bomb/sleeper hit maybe
BF 4 - Hit
COD Ghosts - Hit
GTA V - Massive Hit
AC IV - Most likely a hit
Watch Dogs - Hit but won't live up to Ubisoft's 6.2 million copies or whatever Ubisoft expect it to sell
Rayman Legends - Not a hit but it will do okay since it's coming to PS3/360 as well
LP 3 - bomb for sure
Arkham Origins - Good but not great
Blacklist - bomb/sleeper hit maybe
BF 4 - Hit
COD Ghosts - Hit
GTA V - Massive Hit
AC IV - Most likely a hit
Watch Dogs - Hit but won't live up to Ubisoft's 6.2 million copies or whatever Ubisoft expect it to sell
Rayman Legends - Not a hit but it will do okay since it's coming to PS3/360 as well
LP 3 - bomb for sure
Arkham Origins - Good but not great
WiiU predictions are relative to the super small user base
Pikmin 3 - alright sales
M&L Dream Team - great sales but not as good as BiS
Saints Row IV - good sales but awful legs
Splinter Cell - bomb
XCom - bomb
Rayman Legends - mediocre starting sales but good legs for the rest of the year
Puppeteer - surprise hot of the holidays (please)
Wonderful 101 - not a bomb, but not good either
GTAV - best selling game of the year
Beyond: Two Souls - will do well if marketed correctly; good legs
Pokemon X/Y - system mover, possibly best selling game of the year but GTAV will be hard to beat
Sonic Lost World - big seller on both WiiU and 3DS
Batman - will sell very well
LoZ WWHD - will do alright
Watch_Dogs - best selling new IP, beating TLOU
Link Between Worlds - holiday hit
Donkey Kong - sells very well but not a system mover
Mario 3D World - ^^^
May add more predictions if I feel like it, not that anyone cares
Pikmin 3 - alright sales
M&L Dream Team - great sales but not as good as BiS
Saints Row IV - good sales but awful legs
Splinter Cell - bomb
XCom - bomb
Rayman Legends - mediocre starting sales but good legs for the rest of the year
Puppeteer - surprise hot of the holidays (please)
Wonderful 101 - not a bomb, but not good either
GTAV - best selling game of the year
Beyond: Two Souls - will do well if marketed correctly; good legs
Pokemon X/Y - system mover, possibly best selling game of the year but GTAV will be hard to beat
Sonic Lost World - big seller on both WiiU and 3DS
Batman - will sell very well
LoZ WWHD - will do alright
Watch_Dogs - best selling new IP, beating TLOU
Link Between Worlds - holiday hit
Donkey Kong - sells very well but not a system mover
Mario 3D World - ^^^
May add more predictions if I feel like it, not that anyone cares
Here we go: (Only Major Releases)
GTA 5: Mega Hit, 2nd best selling of the year
Pokemon X and Y: Mega Hit, Best Selling
COD: Hit: 3rd best selling but declined from previous COD titles
Battlefield 4: Super Hit, best selling Battlefield.
Batman: AO: Average Hit, not as much hype going in.
Watch Dogs: Mega Hit: Lots of interest, New Ip
AC4: Hit: Sales decline in series
Mario 3D world: Super Hit, Best selling Wii U game yet.
NBA 2k14: Super Hit: Will pummel Live
NBA Live: Bomb
Fifa 14: Mega Hit
Madden: Average Hit
Lost Planet 3: Bomb
Dead Rising: Hit
DKCR Wii U: Average Hit
Ryse: Bomb
Killzone Shadowfall: Super Hit
Need for Speed: Average Hit
Zelda 3DS: Super Hit
Beyond: Hit
GTA 5: Mega Hit, 2nd best selling of the year
Pokemon X and Y: Mega Hit, Best Selling
COD: Hit: 3rd best selling but declined from previous COD titles
Battlefield 4: Super Hit, best selling Battlefield.
Batman: AO: Average Hit, not as much hype going in.
Watch Dogs: Mega Hit: Lots of interest, New Ip
AC4: Hit: Sales decline in series
Mario 3D world: Super Hit, Best selling Wii U game yet.
NBA 2k14: Super Hit: Will pummel Live
NBA Live: Bomb
Fifa 14: Mega Hit
Madden: Average Hit
Lost Planet 3: Bomb
Dead Rising: Hit
DKCR Wii U: Average Hit
Ryse: Bomb
Killzone Shadowfall: Super Hit
Need for Speed: Average Hit
Zelda 3DS: Super Hit
Beyond: Hit
Wonderful101 - Hit - Nintendo is supporting it and it will be as big of a hit as it can be on Wii U and for Platinum standards it will do good.
GTAV - Hit - I think it will do lower numbers then 4 though. September is not the greatest release time with school starting for many.
SR4/COD/AC/Watch Dogs/B4/Batman/SC/LegoMH/Mario/DK - Hit - these games print money at this point. I also put SR4 into this group as I think it will pay off that almost anyone who wanted SR3 got a chance to try it by now and will pick up sales from the SR3 company bomb sale.
Rayman Legends - Bomb - I only say Bomb since the game has been worked on as long as it has and I do not think Ubi will see the benefits of that extra time. I also will be shocked if it does not sell best on Wii U but not by large margins.
Ryse - Bomb
Dead Rising 3 - Bomb. Sales was not that amazing for 2 and it will be releasing with a limited user base....I would be shocked if it didn't
KillZone - Bomb...not sure why Sony with everything goes to launch KillZone next to BF4 and COD.
Knack - Hit
Sonic - Hit - I'm very interested on what the 3DS to Wii U sales will look like. Will it hurt that its on both they do look to differ enough to warrant purchasing both.
GTAV - Hit - I think it will do lower numbers then 4 though. September is not the greatest release time with school starting for many.
SR4/COD/AC/Watch Dogs/B4/Batman/SC/LegoMH/Mario/DK - Hit - these games print money at this point. I also put SR4 into this group as I think it will pay off that almost anyone who wanted SR3 got a chance to try it by now and will pick up sales from the SR3 company bomb sale.
Rayman Legends - Bomb - I only say Bomb since the game has been worked on as long as it has and I do not think Ubi will see the benefits of that extra time. I also will be shocked if it does not sell best on Wii U but not by large margins.
Ryse - Bomb
Dead Rising 3 - Bomb. Sales was not that amazing for 2 and it will be releasing with a limited user base....I would be shocked if it didn't
KillZone - Bomb...not sure why Sony with everything goes to launch KillZone next to BF4 and COD.
Knack - Hit
Sonic - Hit - I'm very interested on what the 3DS to Wii U sales will look like. Will it hurt that its on both they do look to differ enough to warrant purchasing both.
Pokemon game being a hit? Ludicrous!
I would sing from the rooftops if W101 did 2 million lifetime. It'll probably be closer to 200k than 2 million.
Nikodemos
Member
Quite likely. With the recent popularity of shows like Spartacus and Rome (many people went and bought the DVDs after watching Sp.) I suspect there will be more than a few people willing to try their hand at being a sleazebag Optimate and/or marching forth for the glory of The Senate and People of Rome.
How about a B-B-B-BOMBA BREAKER?
Seriously, I think KI has a potential of being a hit. If they manage to pull off a good pay model and get newcomers of the fighting genre in, I think everything will pay off. Anyway from what we've seen, Double Helix is humble and is very close to the community.
Meanwhile, my biggest hit predictions are:
- Call of Duty: Ghosts
- Disney Infinity
- Pokemon X/Y
- Watch Dogs
- Battlefield 4
- Fifa 14
- GTA V
Potential hits:
- Killer Instinct
- Killzone: SF
- Forza Motorsport 5
Bombs:
- Splinter Cell: Blacklist
- AC IV
- Destiny (Compared to its Halo success)
- Beyond: Two Souls
...