Marty Chinn
Member
Ohh, if its rootable, I'll buy four immediately. I'm hoping lollipop will introduce a new exploit.
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Apple Will Debut New Apple TV In September
- Thread starter giga
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When they announced the original $99 Apple TV in 2010, streaming video was not really a thing. The only app it had was Netflix, and back then, Netflix's business was based on DVD-by-mail. It was basically an iTunes accessory. The third generation came two years later and streaming had picked up a bit, but it was still nowhere near where it is today. For a while, the big selling point was AirPlay.
I think Apple is going to shift the Apple TV from "Netflix machine/iTunes accessory" to legitimate "center of your living room" type device. An Xbox One/PS4 competitor. They'll probably have a Kinect alternative sooner or later. Gaming will be a big thing.
So with a re orientated focus, you'll get a higher price point. For a while, it was widely believed that they sold the Apple TV at a loss just to help their broader iOS ecosystem. If it's going to stand as its own product with Apple-like margins, a $100+ price point seems likely to me.
I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks (hopefully) but I expect no less than $149. They'll keep the older model around at $69 for the people that just want to stream Netflix.
I can't speak for their exact methodology but there are plenty of ways to estimate, and most common strategies should at least get the percentages (user metrics, polling etc). In absence of other numbers I don't see any reason to doubt it.
There was an unknown Android device named AFTS lacking accelerometers that appeared on some benchmarking websites. Speculation is it stands for Amazon Fire TV Stick. It was using a quad core MediaTek chip and benched around 50% faster than the current FireTV. I think they're just going to kill the box because people like the stick form factor more.
TheAbsolution
Member
An Xbox One/PS4 competitor at $149? You've gotta be kidding me.
You need to look at the data you're linking to again, Fire TV is the market leader in shipments for the recent quarter, but Apple TV is still the market leader since release, and Fire TV has the lowest share of the device sales recorded:
Marty Chinn
Member
Is there data on what the market share is of currently used devices? I'm sure plenty of people have stopped using Apple TV and Apple TV2s.You need to look at the data you're linking to again, Fire TV is the market leader in shipments for the recent quarter, but Apple TV is still the market leader since release, and Fire TV has the lowest share of the device sales recorded:
That's why I originally threw out $199.
But the real advantage Apple will have is rapid iteration. The 2016 Apple TV 3 (or whatever it's called) with an A9, and then a year later A10, and so on. Sort of like how the iPhone slowly but surely stole the market for gaming handhelds. It will take time.
Apple won't update this thing every year, none of them do.
McHuj
Member
If they use an A8 for the next Apple TV it will very likely be a cut down, salvaged part. To date, they've shipped 80+ million A8 chips, they probably have millions of remaining that can't either meet the speed necessary for the phone or have a single functioning core. I see them doing what they did with the original apple TV version 3, reusing a salvaged A5 chip.
The biggest barrier to how competitive it can be with consoles is how much memory it has for storage. If it's truly 16GB with no external storage (and that's most likely) I don't really see it working for the types of games you would want to play on your TV (bigger and meatier than mobile).
badcrumble
Member
Apple does all the research and design necessary to put out a new processor annually. There's not much reason for them *not* to update it annually if it takes off.
They're also better at supply chain management than even Amazon, so they can pretty neatly predict sales, buy the right amount of things, and sell the whole inventory through nearing the next upgrade time. Part of why upgrades don't happen for competitors is because they make huge component orders and then have lots of unsold inventory.
They have no need. It's a streaming media box, it doesn't need a refresh every year. People are not going to upgrade it every year. Also going by apples own track record of everything not iPhone or iPad, it won't happen.
outunderthestars
Banned
This is a very foolish post.
Every network has, or is working on standalone apps, every major sports league has an app, most local tv stations have or are working on one, video game sites, niche programming services, weather, news, etc.
And that isn't even counting the market for games....
technically this will be able to compete with PS4 and XBONE.. If you look at today's vast majority of releases for both systems... indie titles that work just fine on iPad (similar CPU, higher resolution than HDTV). So in that regard, Apple TV COULD in fact have a very similar lineup in many cases to PS4 and XBONE (minus obviously the AAA big budget titles taking full advantage of the horsepower of those systems)
As for annually updating it.. no reason to. You can still play most modern games on an iPhone 5 even... and that's almost 3 years old. Realistically they could update it every 3-5 years (5 may be pushing it).
FWIW, Gen 3 has never been jailbroken. So I wouldn't get your hopes up. edit - oops.. see you are talking about the fire stick.
As for annually updating it.. no reason to. You can still play most modern games on an iPhone 5 even... and that's almost 3 years old. Realistically they could update it every 3-5 years (5 may be pushing it).
FWIW, Gen 3 has never been jailbroken. So I wouldn't get your hopes up. edit - oops.. see you are talking about the fire stick.
People don't update their iPads or Macs every year. Yet, they still update those at least once a year (and sometimes more often).
Apple's management has signaled that Apple TV is going from a "hobby" gadget to a full-fledged product in their portfolio. I expect it to be treated similar to their other products, which are updated annually (the lone exception being the iPod, but no one buys those anymore).
badcrumble
Member
You don't refresh a product because you expect people to upgrade it every time you do (and most people only upgrade their phone once every two years). You do it so that new and returning buyers alike feel like they're buying something reasonably current. Apple updates Macs on a cycle that's generally *shorter* than a year, for example.
Meus Renaissance
Member
We all agree that this market is driven by the content providers rather than the manufacturers, so why are we talking about specs and hardware cycles when the greatest appeal will be "what can I stream?" and not "what can I do with it?".
These boxes are fundamentally secondary products; the actual content of the stream is the primary purchase. This is why the current gen boxes, Apple TV included, are affordable. Aside from the potential to handle 4K content - and I imagine only a small minority will care about that - I don't understand why we're talking about hardware much less future cycles.
Apple could release a Fire TV equivalent and price it $99 and it could compete with Amazon. Aside from a 4K supported box, I can't see why anyone would need to upgrade. Ever.
These boxes are fundamentally secondary products; the actual content of the stream is the primary purchase. This is why the current gen boxes, Apple TV included, are affordable. Aside from the potential to handle 4K content - and I imagine only a small minority will care about that - I don't understand why we're talking about hardware much less future cycles.
Apple could release a Fire TV equivalent and price it $99 and it could compete with Amazon. Aside from a 4K supported box, I can't see why anyone would need to upgrade. Ever.
badcrumble
Member
I think, as with iOS and watchOS, Apple's going to want to roll out annual feature upgrades, some of which will require new hardware.
Meus Renaissance
Member
But those operating systems are on devices with multiple functions - functions that in time will require more processing power. It is a market (device) driven by function. An eventual upgrade? I can see that. Annual upgrades? What are they going to do? Up the RAM by 50% each year for faster menu browsing? 1080p Facetime camera? None of which actually will impact viewer experience. I just don't see anything that justifies this assumption that Apple will treat their TV box the same way as their iOS devices.
The holy grail is content which is what all the rumours have been focusing on. Apple wants people to watch TV through their box via a subscription service. Annual hardware upgrades on top of that?
LyleLanley
Banned
I think it depends on if they market this as a legitimate gaming option.
badcrumble
Member
If it's just about streaming, then yeah, you're right. I'm just picturing something that has (on top of that) a lot more home automation/interactivity/app-driven/gaming stuff rather than being solely about streaming channels.
Stuff like H.265 hardware decoding will be really nice in the near future, for example, but aren't (IIRC) supported by the A8.
Meus Renaissance
Member
I see your point but if it isn't competitively priced then Apple aren't serious because people aren't going to pay a premium to have notifications on their TV screen (mirrored on their phone and watch lol) when watching Netflix.
Marty Chinn
Member
Ya, I gave up on AppleTVs because of that. I loved my Apple TV2, and almost bought a 3 when it launched, but I'm glad I didn't because it never got jailbroken. I almost bought it thinking, it'll get jailbroken at some point. That would have been a big mistake on my part.
badcrumble
Member
I agree that there's got to be a feature-complete $99 SKU, yeah.
I think you're thinking about it too small.
They want to control the living room. They want you to get rid of your PlayStation and your cable box and run everything through Apple TV. Hardcore gaming may not be possible with the first model, but as the refreshes roll out, they'll equip it with ever faster SoC and eventually it'll be console equivalent.
There's also the smart home play. Eventually, all of your appliances are going to be wi-fi equipped and you'll have cameras and sensors and things all over your house. You need a sort of brain to control that. And next generation Apple TVs could fill that need.
As for annual features, the next A chip seems obvious. Then they could do things like:
2016: Now with support for 4K!
2017: Now with Siri Camera for hands-free control and facetime
2018: Now with support for Apple VR headset
etc. etc.
You need to look at the data you're linking to again, Fire TV is the market leader in shipments for the recent quarter, but Apple TV is still the market leader since release, and Fire TV has the lowest share of the device sales recorded:
Right but that data is kinda irrelevant. If I ask for something like smartphone sales it's not useful to point out all the Galaxy S3s that were sold a couple years ago because those are the ones being replaced. Consumers currently buying and looking to buy seem to be concentrated around FireTV and developers looking to target apps are going to put those on FireTV as long as it's popular. Basically everyone else is losing marketshare. That's the main takeaway.
Apple should have updated a couple years ago.
You need to look at the data you're linking to again, Fire TV is the market leader in shipments for the recent quarter, but Apple TV is still the market leader since release, and Fire TV has the lowest share of the device sales recorded:
Apple TV is 4th most popular streaming device in the US. It may have sold more units than the Fire over it's much longer lifespan, but people clearly prefer the Fire to it now.
You're looking at sales data again. The same analysis you're pointing to says more people use Apple TV than Fire.
I don't think that's actually irrelevant data. There is data for usage out there from multiple analysts which is more useful. (Such as: http://www.macrumors.com/2015/06/04/apple-authenticated-streaming/ or Troy's link that says Apple TV is used more than Fire) There is no reason to buy another Apple TV if you already own one because it is the exact same model.
Your Samsung analogy is a red herring. There's nothing to indicate that people want to replace their TV streaming devices at the same pace as phones--even tablets and computers do not have such replacement cycles.
Technosteve
Banned
Plz support 4k tvs with native 4K support
Mailenstein
Member
All I want is a $99 model and I'm game.
Timing is good, I don't actually want one as I have a Roku but for whatever asinine reason our 2 new streaming services in Cananda only have their apps on Chromecast or AppleTV.
While I personally like the Chromecasts when I had them, getting the family to use the device without a remote was a huge pain in the ass lol
While I personally like the Chromecasts when I had them, getting the family to use the device without a remote was a huge pain in the ass lol
Remember that this is almost surely going to be the new iPhone event (with apple TV as an extra announcement). So the Hey Siri bit is referring to siri on phones and doesnt mean the rumoured Apple TV will use it.
Virtually every leak about the new Apple TV (9to5Mac, Buzzfeed, etc) has said that it would include Siri. Voice control is kind of a standard now for streaming set-top boxes, with FireTV, Roku, Android TV all supporting it. If the new Apple TV did not include Siri, I would be absolutely shocked.
But there are a couple of other interesting things. First, remember that Apple purchased PrimeSense back in 2013. Also, note that "Hey, Siri" is the command you give your iPhone if you wish to activate Siri when you're not touching your phone (and it's plugged in and charging).
Finally, Apple has rented an enormous venue for this year's event -- twice the size as last year's. And yet it's an off year. The iPhone 6S will surely be nice, but does an extra color option, a better camera, Force Touch and a faster processor really dictate such an elaborate set-up?
It's all speculation and really, it might not mean anything at all. Last year their invite said "Wish we could say more" -- in hindsight, that meant almost nothing.
Zeyphersan
Banned
I'm still surprised Siri isn't in OSX yet to be honest. But it'll be a nice inclusion for the Apple TV
Sources: new Apple TV's remote will contain motion sensors on par with a Nintendo Wii remote
http://techcrunch.com/2015/08/27/apple-is-about-to-lay-down-its-tv-cards/#.x59s4s:1kL9
http://techcrunch.com/2015/08/27/apple-is-about-to-lay-down-its-tv-cards/#.x59s4s:1kL9
If Apple targets games with the new Apple TV, I can't wait for all the salty "But it can't play MGSV at 1080p 60fps!" comments that completely miss the point.
This might be the alternate universe where Nintendo said "fuck 'em" and went total casual.
They were held back by insular gamers but Apple will have no qualms sitting back and not caring, gamer shouts drowned over the sound of making money. Alternately, people might not care at all about these games on a TV, they haven't really so far.
Panzer thinks they'll beef up the a8? Interesting. We'll see if it can compete with the a9.
If Apple manages to bake-in some crossplay feature with iPhone and iPad games, that may be the game changer.
infiniteloop
Member
Hopefully will get support for standard MFi controllers too.
outunderthestars
Banned
Vudu app and i am on board day one.
Why put this stuff into a remote when the iPhone or iPad already has it (other than the buttons)?
Well, as you said, the buttons.
But let's say I want to play a game on my Apple TV and my wife wants to browse Pinterest with her iPad. Too bad give me your iPad?
I think letting the iPhone/iPad work as controller makes sense, but you need something dedicated as well.
After the complete mess that is Apple Music, I have little hope in a streaming based TV-service from Apple.
My opinion of Apple used to be quality and robustness. Few bugs if any. I will not wait or hope for quality software from the Apple TV. I'll have to chose another company for that purpose.
My opinion of Apple used to be quality and robustness. Few bugs if any. I will not wait or hope for quality software from the Apple TV. I'll have to chose another company for that purpose.
Makes sense they can get more performance out of it, because as they say in the article, it's always plugged in.
Makes me sad that Sony didn't overclock the PSTV, devs could code their games to detect when they're played on the PSTV and get a bit better performance/graphics, etc.
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