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(Hardware) November 2009 NPD Predictions - Closes December 6

2009_11_performancevsGAF.png

2009_11_performance.png

2009_11_precision.png
 
RevoDS said:
[WII] 1,120,000 - 140,000
[PS3] 830,000 - 119,700
[360] 650,000 - 169,500
[NDS] 1,590,000 - 110,000
[PSP] 460,000 - 166,100
[PS2] 200,000 - 3,100


Ugh, the only place I was within less than 100k was PS2. I fucked up this month, hard. PS3 > 360 was totally unexpected...and those PSP numbers are pitiful - it doesn't even look like it's holiday time when you look at its numbers.

Total: 708,400
 
I'm really happy with my predictions, I'm within a whisker of everything.

EXCEPT FOR THE DAMN PS3 AND 360 WHERE I'M A COUNTRY MILE AWAY.

>:(

:lol
 
user_nat said:
Hard month I guess..

[360] 650k
[NDS] 1500k
[PS2] 400k
[PS3] 800k
[PSP] 500k
[WII] 1300k

.. didn't really put any thought into those, just kinda typed stuff.
Why.. why did I put the PSP and PS2 so high..
 
November 2009 NPD Hardware Prediction Results

Units

NPD_200911_bin.png


1. boontje - 178,300
2. DayShallCome - 308,300
3. AniHawk - 338,300
4. Jesse2040 - 341,100
5. Hyllian - 364,100
6. kay - 369,100
7. Saiyar - 378,300
8. gofreak - 386,100
9. GAF_Agg - 396,800
10. mmxzero - 398,300
11. esc - 408,300
12. No_Style - 414,900
13. doicare - 423,300
14. Scott32020 - 427,100
15. Psychotext - 432,300
16. Vustadumas - 436,900
17. duk - 439,900
18. sinnergy - 440,900
19. Rated-Rsuperstar - 448,100
20. vicissitudes - 448,300
21. ichinisan - 449,900
22. jvm - 452,100
23. scottnak - 453,300
24. RBH - 458,300
25. llonesmiz - 461,100
26. andy_lhc - 463,300
27. hyelife - 478,300
28. nextgeneration - 483,300
29. Elios83 - 488,300
29. Frankfurter - 488,300
29. markatisu - 488,300
32. Pennywise83 - 492,100
33. Stopsign - 508,300
33. apujanata - 508,300
33. sensi97 - 508,300
36. rostocker - 513,100
37. Jokeropia - 513,300
38. NeoUltima - 523,300
39. hemtae - 524,100
40. JaCy - 534,900
41. donny2112 - 535,300
42. jj984jj - 548,300
43. LiquidMetal14 - 572,100
44. Provider - 578,300
45. Strike - 582,100
46. Pachter - 586,900
47. Megadragon15 - 598,100
48. RobertM - 602,300
49. jamesinclair - 607,566
50. perfectchaos007 - 612,900
51. Woodsy - 616,100
52. kadotsu - 619,100
53. Osuwari - 623,100
54. SonicX_Zero - 624,100
55. Orgen - 626,300
56. Jonsoncao - 628,300
57. pseudocaesar - 633,300
58. Orbitcube - 636,100
59. Danthrax - 651,300
60. jey_16 - 653,300
60. neo2046 - 653,300
62. Brakara - 663,300
63. kpop100 - 667,100
64. rayner - 667,900
65. carlo6529 - 673,300
66. SuperBanjo - 678,300
67. Hammer24 - 682,900
68. Spiegel - 683,100
69. Sadist - 687,900
70. N.A - 688,300
71. tenritsu - 694,300
72. Serenity - 696,100
73. gkrykewy - 702,100
74. botticus - 703,300
75. Gamemaster_ca_2003 - 704,100
76. Thunder Monkey - 707,100
77. RevoDS - 708,300
78. Ydahs - 717,100
79. D.Lo - 718,300
80. JoseJX - 728,300
81. demosthenes - 733,300
82. Leondexter - 741,100
83. Jubs - 752,100
84. -PXG- - 768,300
85. ilbambino - 778,300
86. BLaZiN PRopHeT - 782,100
87. skedar897 - 787,100
88. TheFallen - 788,300
89. archnemesis - 794,100
90. Flakster99 - 798,100
91. Sohter.Nura - 803,300
92. Mihku - 808,300
93. will123456 - 809,100
94. catchabad0ne - 809,900
95. John Dunbar - 828,300
96. goomba - 836,100
97. JoshuaJSlone - 838,300
98. tass0 - 840,900
99. lowlylowlycook - 842,100
100. TheRagnCajun - 843,100
101. rikitikitik - 854,100
102. SteelAttack - 854,900
103. Chuck Norris - 858,300
104. Atreides - 863,300
105. Danielsan - 866,100
106. MagniHarvald - 872,100
107. agm2502 - 872,300
108. timetokill - 878,300
108. dragct - 878,300
110. Adonymous - 883,300
111. shinshero - 895,300
112. Ataru83 - 898,300
113. user_nat - 902,100
114. bakemono - 902,900
115. turnbuckle - 908,300
116. elohel - 909,100
117. Mojojo - 916,100
118. micromagic - 921,100
119. operon - 931,900
120. choodi - 938,300
121. Koodo - 949,100
122. omg rite - 953,300
123. VegaShinra - 971,100
124. waru - 989,100
125. MikeE21286 - 1,003,300
126. womfalcs3 - 1,016,900
127. Linkup - 1,033,100
128. whizthekid - 1,036,900
129. expy - 1,044,100
130. Culex - 1,057,100
131. gollumsluvslave - 1,071,300
132. Averon - 1,081,100
133. The M.O.B - 1,123,100
134. Arsenic - 1,128,300
135. h3ro - 1,136,100
136. WaltJay - 1,146,900
137. squicken - 1,219,100
138. AdventureRacing - 1,257,100
139. Gadfly - 1,428,300
140. Mully - 1,488,300
141. Teetris - 1,498,300
142. AlternativeUlster - 1,553,300
143. crazy monkey - 1,686,900


Points

Code:
     November 2009               Last 3 Months                Overall 2009
1.   boontje            130.96   boontje             363.03   boontje             1,214.63
2.   Jesse2040          121.38   Jesse2040           352.22   doicare             1,200.17
3.   AniHawk            121.07   Saiyar              349.31   esc                 1,179.95
4.   DayShallCome       119.53   doicare             345.08   Brakara             1,165.22
5.   kay                116.28   Brakara             343.9    Jokeropia           1,163.37
6.   sinnergy           114.73   Hammer24            343.64   botticus            1,159.12
7.   Hyllian            114.1    llonesmiz           338.52   Pachter             1,155.32
8.   tass0              113.26   Pachter             334.99   Saiyar              1,154.76
9.   bakemono           113.15   Jonsoncao           333.88   Atreides            1,153.15
10.  Saiyar             112.47   Strike              331.55   Jesse2040           1,151.09
11.  gofreak            112.26   Hyllian             331.55   N.A                 1,150.30
12.  esc                112.12   andy_lhc            330.99   llonesmiz           1,147.20
13.  doicare            110.71   Orgen               330.96   Strike              1,145.15
14.  SonicX_Zero        110.26   jvm                 330.46   JoshuaJSlone        1,141.28
15.  andy_lhc           110.19   Gamemaster_ca_2003  330.35   Jonsoncao           1,135.12
16.  Koodo              109.05   botticus            328.4    Psychotext          1,135.00
17.  duk                108.78   Atreides            328.22   Gamemaster_ca_2003  1,132.23
18.  Scott32020         108.55   apujanata           327.09   jvm                 1,126.93
19.  jvm                108.5    donny2112           327.07   Scott32020          1,123.64
20.  scottnak           108.42   jj984jj             326.98   SuperBanjo          1,122.69
21.  vicissitudes       108.05   Frankfurter         326.45   andy_lhc            1,121.14
22.  RBH                108.04   John Dunbar         325.79   Frankfurter         1,118.93
23.  Stopsign           107.98   Psychotext          325.41   choodi              1,116.14
24.  llonesmiz          107.82   dragct              324.1    Ydahs               1,112.74
25.  ichinisan          107.77   DayShallCome        323.21   scottnak            1,111.32
26.  Psychotext         107.61   nextgeneration      322.84   RBH                 1,109.40
27.  Jokeropia          107.49   RBH                 322.82   BLaZiN PRopHeT      1,108.71
28.  pseudocaesar       107.42   Elios83             322.6    apujanata           1,107.08
29.  Jubs               107.27   esc                 322.06   donny2112           1,106.44
30.  Pachter            107.26   bakemono            321.03   rostocker           1,100.68
31.  Frankfurter        107.16   TheRagnCajun        320.55   skedar897           1,090.78
32.  Pennywise83        107.1    hemtae              318.88   bakemono            1,085.11
33.  jj984jj            107.08   scottnak            318.73   rikitikitik         1,074.83
34.  Strike             107.06   Scott32020          318.52   nextgeneration      1,071.95
35.  Orbitcube          106.93   JoseJX              317.5    lowlylowlycook      1,065.24
36.  mmxzero            106.88   Orbitcube           317.24   Thunder Monkey      1,063.06
37.  rostocker          106.8    RobertM             316.83   hemtae              1,060.13
38.  No_Style           106.43   Ydahs               316.16   Hammer24            1,051.30
39.  Elios83            106.11   lowlylowlycook      315.39   Linkup              1,037.62
40.  Serenity           105.85   rostocker           314.75   DayShallCome        1,036.93
41.  nextgeneration     105.02   Stopsign            313.37   John Dunbar         1,035.09
42.  Orgen              104.98   SuperBanjo          313.21   archnemesis         1,024.26
43.  hemtae             104.97   ichinisan           313.2    perfectchaos007     1,023.77
44.  sensi97            104.94   D.Lo                312.89   gollumsluvslave     1,017.48
45.  jey_16             104.94   NeoUltima           312.38   Orgen               1,016.19
46.  RobertM            104.82   timetokill          311.92   LiquidMetal14         996.12
47.  Sadist             104.78   JoshuaJSlone        311.23   D.Lo                  992.9
48.  markatisu          104.69   Thunder Monkey      310.59   sionyboy              987.02
49.  BLaZiN PRopHeT     104.53   archnemesis         309.36   jey_16                983.76
50.  Vustadumas         104.5    Jokeropia           309.33   The M.O.B             978.4

Congratulations, boontje! :D
 
jamesinclair said:
How do you read this graph?

2009_11_precision.png





How are the points given?
Who's off by how many % on average I would assume, and the center is the 0%. Basically the closer to the center the better.
 
MagniHarvald said:
[360] 680k - 819.5k = -139.5k
[NDS] 1 991k - 1 700k = +291k
[PS2] 182k - 203.1K = -21.1k
[PS3] 777k - 710.4k = +66.6k (devil console confirmed)
[PSP] 199k - 293.9k = -94.9
[WII] 1 001k - 1 260k = -259k

Absolute error: 872.1k (relative: 17.5%). Order correct: No.

Before edit I had 360 at 850k and PS3 at 699k, damn you Black Friday PR!
 
RobertM said:
Who's off by how many % on average I would assume, and the center is the 0%. Basically the closer to the center the better.

Yep, exactly. Imagine the center as a bullseye, and each dot's distance from the bullseye is the predictor's average distance from being correct for the month.

Please also note it's November, not October :\ Can't believe I missed that :P
 
Road said:
Blah... I was traveling and forgot I was gonna be back after the deadline.

Posting just to gauge myself later, anyway:

[360] 690,000 - 819,500 = 129,500
[NDS] 1,700,000 - 1,700,000 = 0
[PS2] 200,000 - 203,100 = 3,100
[PS3] 800,000 - 710,400 = 110,400
[PSP] 390,000 - 293,900 = 96,100
[WII] 1,200,000 - 1,260,000 = 60,000


Total: 399,100. Which would put me at 11. Meh.

Boontje should win bonus point based on how much wrong everyone else was. The guy had a vision. haha Congratulations.

Thanks, donny.
 
I totally blew it... knocked myself off any top 50 list. Landed @ 64 this month. I can't blame the BF PR cause if I didn't edit I would have been in even worse condition.
 
Suprised I placed so high, I thought the 360/PS3 really messed my prediction up. A good result in december and I can beat Pachter for the year :D .
 
shi...360 messed up my prediction...
still trailing behind Pachter...by 20pts, hopefully I could get the bonus of Dec prediction
 
Stopsign said:
The guy must cheat somehow!

Hi-Five apujanata and sensi, we got the same exact results. :lol

Yeah, it is nice to share the #33 position with you and sensi. At least we beat Pachter :)

Donny2112,
How many people get the bonus point for correct order ?
Why there is GAF Average on the S/W Ranking, and no GAF Average on the H/W Ranking ?
 
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