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Chaos2Frozen
Member
Persona 5 is niche game confirmed; Should've made it an ARPG... (030)~
Why do you think so? It's a depiction of reality, illustrating sales numbers as published by Nintendo.
We know that Wii U outsold Switch in Japan for their first months, but now it should already be behind a hundred thousand launch aligned. For other markets that Wii U actually was behind in the first month and had pitiful January. I think it is fair to say that Switch far ahead Wii U already.
Problem is, a *lot* of those WiiU systems were likely sitting on the shelves, as you can see with the following shipping data (the third one is awfully telling of what was going on...)
here's an idea of sales within the first 87-97 days for each console being available.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130130e.pdf
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130424e.pdf
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130731e.pdf
It's illustrating global sold in/shipmemts reported by Nintendo. Not launch aligned or the same time of year either, it's a rather worthless comparison (doubly so in an NPD thread) given how differently Wii and Wii U went after their first 2 months, and which trajectory Switch appears to be following.
They are still in denial especially after they claimed it was DOA after the January presentation.
I would most certainly not agree. Not similar at all. I suppose if all you do is take the raw numbers in a vacuum. And if you take the additional steps to stick your fingers in your ears and ignore hype, supply constraints, game lineups, etc. then I guess you can indeed conclude that they are the same. But I won't. Context matters.
How does your reply relate to my post or the sales numbers posted by Nintendo (as shown in the chart)? You raise points that I agree with, but I don't see why you are quoting me.
It's as launch-aligned as possible, given that Nintendo only publishes sales numbers at the end of each quarter. Considering the Switch was supply constrained, the period during which the systems launched is meaningless anyway.
It's a simple comparison of sales numbers as published by Nintendo, with almost the same number of days available for all three systems.
Why a user decided to post it now, months later, I don't know. But that does not change that those numbers are real and very well comparable.
Bits N Pieces
Member
Chances of Persona coming to other platforms? Seems to be a universally loved and praised game that could do with reaching as large an audience as possible, even if its not a game for me.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
My god there are people that are trying to argue that it's like a Wii U now....The console is severely supply constrained and could still possibly sell more than Wii U did lifetime by the end of this fiscal year...
The perfect Dark
Banned
edit: Eh, not worth it. I'm tired, lol.
He posted it in an attempt to paint the switch sales as worse than WiiU's
It was a failed troll attempt
LordRaptor
Member
If theres been a recurring theme this gen amongst third parties, its that exclusives aren't happening without sizable money hats.
If nothing else a PC port seems probable.
MatPiscatella
Member
Nothing in video game HW is comparable until you get one holiday season in for each system.
Want to make a fair comparison? Wait for the first 10 months of sales, then compare.
A 2-3 month comp between a March release and a Q4 release is, while not completely meaningless, is very close.
Wii and Switch were/are severely supply constrained, Wii U certainly was not. Wii and Wii U launched in a holiday period, Switch did not. Stop it.
Want to make a fair comparison? Wait for the first 10 months of sales, then compare.
A 2-3 month comp between a March release and a Q4 release is, while not completely meaningless, is very close.
Wii and Switch were/are severely supply constrained, Wii U certainly was not. Wii and Wii U launched in a holiday period, Switch did not. Stop it.
Switch is having a rough decline pattern going from 900k+ to 280k to less than 200k.
I see that the console is hard to find and this makes difficult to understand how much demand is actually declining and how much Nintendo is simply missing an opportunity but in any case the blame still is on Nintendo's poor planning.
Usually summer months are really slow so they might be able to keep up with demand but they better be prepapred for the holiday season.
Oh is there some rough estimate for Prey? It sold less than Dishonored 2?
Persona 5 obviously dropped like a rock, JRPGs are very frontloaded and Atlus is not helping with certain stupid politics.
I see that the console is hard to find and this makes difficult to understand how much demand is actually declining and how much Nintendo is simply missing an opportunity but in any case the blame still is on Nintendo's poor planning.
Usually summer months are really slow so they might be able to keep up with demand but they better be prepapred for the holiday season.
Oh is there some rough estimate for Prey? It sold less than Dishonored 2?
Persona 5 obviously dropped like a rock, JRPGs are very frontloaded and Atlus is not helping with certain stupid politics.
Nobody should say that with a straight face, but it's impossible to know how much of a success the Switch actually is, because Nintendo can't seem to even come close to cover the initial die hard early adopter demo....
Heck, the Nintendo/ Zelda fans are so thirsty that afaik they sold more Zelda BotW than Switch to play them on.
Never heard of a 1.1 attach rate before.
I remember one user at one point using the fact that the Switch was selling massive numbers yet still sold out as evidence that it did indeed follow a WiiU trajecten aan was going to be Wii U tier after the holidays. Good times.
OT: As has been said, posting shipped units as a comparison measure between Switch and Wii U is disingenuous, since such a comparison fails to mention that Wii U was massively overshipped while the Switch is undershipped, and as such saying that Switch is performing like the Wii U did early on is just untrue.
wonderful103
Member
I'd say we are well beyond "initial die hard early adopter" phase of the hardware sales proposition at this point, but then what would the next goal post movement even be?
Y'all really wanna die on that, "Switch is not a success" anthill, huh? Just last month it was "too soon" to call it a success; you get reports of supply constraints due to competition with Apple, and Nintendo can't meet demand. Now, right away, it's in the same state as Wii U? Please.
MatPiscatella
Member
Noooooooooope. Injustice packaged had 4 SKUs.
It's an easy slip. Another poster thought the same earlier, as did I for a minute when I first read the original quote. I had to go look it up to make sure.
Do we have data on how many of those shipped WiiUs sold through to customers?
Ah, right. Didn't realise when I wrote this that I should be using the limited SKUs as completely separate. Sorry about that!
The argument should be that MK8D is more than 1/4 of Injustice total sales, so MK8D > 155k and Injustice > 615k.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Anyone entertaining that Switch is similar to the WiiU narrative should be ignored. It's not even a discussion point at all. If the stock was available Switch would be selling better. But hey, component shortage means a system is gonna sell 13m lifetime now :/
Skittzo0413
Member
The Wii U shipped 3.91 million units in its first 10 months according to Nintendo. While not official, the Switch has almost certainly surpassed 4 million units shipped in its first 3 months and is still sold out. (Worldwide for both)
The situations are really not comparable.
The situations are really not comparable.
Magic Mushroom
Member
Yeah. I hope digital sales are decent (275k on SteamSpy). The game deserves to be a hit.
I don't.
Nothing in video game HW is comparable until you get one holiday season in for each system.
Want to make a fair comparison? Wait for the first 10 months of sales, then compare.
A 2-3 month comp between a March release and a Q4 release is, while not completely meaningless, is very close.
Hey Mat, great to see and hear from you again! As always, your contribution to the NPD threads is appreciated.
I completely agree that we need to compare the first 10 months since Switch is doing pretty awesome for being released in a typically slow quarter.
Question for you, can you give us any ranges for Switch software?
I'm curious how Street Fighter II and Disgaea 5 performed. I think NIS mentioned they had over 100k pre-orders for Disgaea 5 a while back. How close did either of those titles manage to get to that number?
Oh and also, how did Fire Emblem on 3DS perform? Obviously I don't expect it to put up Awakening or Fates numbers but relatively well?
The chart indeed shows real numbers, but without that additional data point, I question its usefulness in this discussion.
Just as a reminder, those were Western preorders, not just for US.
Primethius
Banned
Since this is primarily console sales, it doesn't help that the PS4 version of the game is a technical mess. That aspect would certainly hamper otherwise good WoM.
That's why it deserved low sales.
Castef
Banned
Who is "they"?
Oh, good call. Assuming 50/50 split between NA and Europe, 50k sounds reasonable?
Mikey Jr.
Member
Atlus/Sega?
Lol as alwayd COD will be the most talked and wished game of the year, followed by Battlefront 2 and Destiny 2. Mario is on a single platform with a tiny installed base so it's only the most wished on switch not in general.
I don't think you can tell either way at this point. I'd like to see how it does after the Nintendo faithful have bought one. I would say being a handheld would lead it to major success but $300 is a lot for a handheld.
Agreed Mario Will be talked about by Nintendo fans. All the other games you mentioned Will certainly be more talked about and bought by the masses.
Really?
Should we expect launch month numbers to stay flat, even ignoring the console is basically sold out everywhere?
PackAPunchedMick
Member
Momentum looks to have shifted back to power and third party games rather than a handheld hybrid gimmick with nothing but Nintendo software.
Nintendo fucking suck at producing console hardware efficiently
MatPiscatella
Member
Very kind of you to say, thanks!
Wish I could. I guess I'd say that with titles like Zelda showing a record setting attach rate and Kart off to a very strong start, I've actually been a bit surprised by the software strength.
The bummer is we don't get digital sales for Nintendo yet. So when we look at the best-sellers list on the eShop there are titles consistently in the top rankings that I don't have visibility to. I can make some estimates on packaged/digital splits and come to some range estimates, which, again, leaves me somewhat surprised by software strength, at least when it comes to comparing against previous console launches.
Much has been made of the seemingly light slate for Switch. However, when really put apples to apples against past console launches, this slate is performing just as well or better than many previous benchmarks.
Given the severe supply constraints, the strength of slate for the remainder of the year, and what seem to be very satisfied owners evangelizing Switch to others, it is very hard for me to envision a scenario where demand doesn't remain strong through the holiday period.
I was always on the high side of pre-launch forecasts for Switch in the analyst community, and I've raised mine a bit since the launch (although other analysts have gone way beyond what I think reasonable, but that's a topic for another time). I've raised expectations significantly in later years due to Pokemon RPG. I expect households to buy multiple Switch consoles, as has been seen in prior Pokemon launches on portable. If/when this happens, the addressable market for Switch grows beyond what other tv-tethered consoles can reach.
In any case, I find the comments expressing doubts about Switch performance either uninformed or disingenuous. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Sorry, can't disclose more than the rankings.
I called this out in the analyst notes. Performance drove spending in portable SW up 10% vs last year. That's me saying that the performance was strong.
hanspampel
Banned
The most informative post are always burried here
PS VR LTD in the US is below 415k units
Or below 41.5% of WW sales
PS4 console is at ~33%
A small difference in saled would have a big impact on the numbers tho. Don't take it as more as it is
Do you seriously believe that a new 3d mario is only wanted by the nintendo fans that has already bought into the system early? It's one of the biggest franchises not only for nintendo but in the industry as a whole.