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The Official Presidential Polling Thread (ALL presidential polling data goes here)

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avaya said:
@Stoney Mason

I get your point about negative attacks, however doesn't the amount of money you have also have an impact on exposure? The Democrats have certainly out-fundraised the Republicans by some distance this time.

Yes but look at it this way. The amount of money between Obama and Clinton is roughly the same. For Edwards it's a lot less. If Obama (or Edwards) simply stays civil he is theoretically not going to change the dynamic. Especially so for Edwards who has less Money. Obama only started to make a gain when he attacked Hillary two debates ago. While personally I think it was mainly a hypocritical attack, he still was able to change the dynamic and media narrative with it. Being "civil" and just doing his normal thing hadn't gotten him anywhere. Going negative isn't just an attempt to hit the people but to create a negative echo chamber in the media that then reflects back to the people.
 

Eric P

Member
Informal poll on the D train



Black woman #1: Who you gonna vote fo' in this election?
Black woman #2, picking her fingernails: I dunno. I just fuckin' hate Bush. Anyone but him.
Black woman #1: I like Hillary. I think I'm gonna vote fo' Hillary.
Black woman #2: Yeah. I mean, Obama's cute, but I don't care -- he's a black man. My husband's a black man, and he don't do shit.
Black woman #1: Mmm, I know.
 
Cheebs said:
This Huckabee "surge" is really happening it seems.

Well I knew he was going to get a bump from that last debate. His performance (And I use that word purposely since that's what debates are--performance art) was positively Bill Clintonian. He revived that compassionate conservatism angle them Bush used without speaking those words except he has actual and genuine charm. The evangelicals love to view themselves in that light and he did it perfectly. It was the last time he'll go to a debate without getting viciously attacked so the future debates should be interesting.
 

NWO

Member
Francois the Great said:
so it looks like gules and clinton are both going down?

happy day

While I don't like Rudy as a candidate I don't get why him going down to Huckabee would be a good thing especially to people on this board.

Huckabee is for the war, against gay marriage, against abortion, etc.

Why would any liberal on here prefer him? Is it because he has less of a chance beating the Democratic nominee? Because I'm getting scared that this guy could make a run especially if the Democrats beat the living hell out of one another.
 
NWO said:
While I don't like Rudy as a candidate I don't get why him going down to Huckabee would be a good thing especially to people on this board.

Huckabee is for the war, against gay marriage, against abortion, etc.

Why would any liberal on here prefer him? Is it because he has less of a chance beating the Democratic nominee? Because I'm getting scared that this guy could make a run especially if the Democrats beat the living hell out of one another.

As I always say, I really wouldn't use this board as any indication of what the general public thinks or even what "true liberals" think.
 

Tauntaun

Banned
Eric P said:
Informal poll on the D train



Black woman #1: Who you gonna vote fo' in this election?
Black woman #2, picking her fingernails: I dunno. I just fuckin' hate Bush. Anyone but him.
Black woman #1: I like Hillary. I think I'm gonna vote fo' Hillary.
Black woman #2: Yeah. I mean, Obama's cute, but I don't care -- he's a black man. My husband's a black man, and he don't do shit.
Black woman #1: Mmm, I know.


:lol
 
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows a new national leader in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. While enjoying an amazing surge, Mike Huckabee has earned support from 20% of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide. Three points back, at 17%, is Rudy Giuliani. That’s the lowest level of support ever recorded for Giuliani in the tracking poll and represents a seven-point decline over the past week. Huckabee has gained eight points during the same time frame

Revenge of the evangelicals. Poor Rudy (who I like despite a lot of posts). The Republicans will never nominate a social liberal apparently. That saddens me...
 
12/5/07 - National Poll:

Huck 20
Gules 17
Roms 13
McCain 13
Thompson 10

Gules down 7 points and Huck up 8 points from last week. Its Gules' lowest support ever.

RASMUSSEN

I said WOW...
 

sprsk

force push the doodoo rock
Yup, looks like Evangelicals found their man. Not surprised. This guy is just as crazy if not more so than Ghouliani and Romney though.
 
Cheebs said:
Iowa and NH more or less decide the nominees...
Since 1972, in contested Iowa caucuses:
The Democrat winner has gone on to win the party's nomination 3 out of 7 times. (2 of 4 since 1988)
The Republican winner has gone on to win the party's nomination 3 out of 5 times. (2 of 3 since 1988)

Since 1972, in contested New Hampshire primaries:
The Democrat winner has gone on to win the party's nomination 4 out of 7 times. (3 of 4 since 1988)
The Republican winner has gone on to win the party's nomination 3 out of 5 times. (1 of 3 since 1988)
 
I may be naive or maybe I have a blindspot but I still think Hillary will get the nomination. I still have yet to see Obama actually land a real shot. I still think most of these attacks on her are largely media driven. At a certain point that may not matter and the damage may be done, but until Obama actually does something that wows me I'm sticking with my pick.

The differences between them to me are cosmetic and rhetorical at best. Obama has a much better chance obviously than he had a month ago but I can't see a lot of Democratic standard bearers deserting her.

I would say 70% chance for Hillary. 30% for Obama. And Hillary doesn't have to win either Iowa or New Hampshire and she can still win the nomination imo. Nobody else matters on that side. I must say unfortunately John Edwards is starting to annoy the fuck out of me. This is the same guy who sat in front of Dick Cheney a couple of years ago and was too polite to even land a punch. Now he's suddenly the great reformer with his Mr. Smith with an attitude demeanor... Not cool without a reasoned explanation for this swap. Maybe he's said it and I missed it...

The Republican race is far more shaky. I don't consider Rudy the favorite anymore but it's close. The evangelicals really hate him even more than I thought they would and he's going to receive so much negative press after not winning those early primaries that his big state strategy will be tough. Far more than Hillary I think he's running on the he can win the general election card but if you can't win some early primaries or lead nationally in your own party that puts a big dent into that. Huckabee has a lot momentum and southern preacher charm. That plays so well with the Republicans and I think he's a tough candidate to attack for the others. Attacking the preacher doesn't play that well. Fred Thompson and Mccain are dead. Which leaves Romney. I just can't see it. The Mormon thing. He's too slick and polished. (He actually feels like a Democrat to me in that regard)

So the odds for the Republicans break down.

45% Huckabee 40% Rudy. 15% Romney.
 
NWO said:
While I don't like Rudy as a candidate I don't get why him going down to Huckabee would be a good thing especially to people on this board.

Huckabee is for the war, against gay marriage, against abortion, etc.

Why would any liberal on here prefer him? Is it because he has less of a chance beating the Democratic nominee? Because I'm getting scared that this guy could make a run especially if the Democrats beat the living hell out of one another.
Huckabee doesn't hate poor people. That's about the only positive thing about him, from a liberal's perspective.
 
Exactly...he's a populist on economic issues. And while Obama talks about preventative healthcare initiatives in between drags from his cigarettes, Huck is a living, breathing example of preventative healthcare.
 
Strategic Vision has Obama up 7 in Iowa. Abcnews has Obama within 6 of Hillary in New Hampshire and Rasmussen has South Carolina in a virtual deadlock, 36-34, Hillary.

Nationally, via Rasmussen, Hillary's lead has shrunk to only 7 percent.

Sorry for lack of links. This blackberry isn't really conducive to copy/paste.

As for the GOP, I still believe that Romney will win the nomination.
 
South Carolina Insider Advantage 12/4:

Huck 23
Gules 17
Thompson 17
Roms 14

MSNBC Link

Pretty clear the tide has somewhat turned. Hopefully we'll get some new polls from some of the 2/5 states soon.
 
AlteredBeast said:
Has a poll been released since Romney made his speech? I am wonder if it has or will have any positive/negative effect.

He might receive a short term bump simply because of the press coverage but I doubt it will matter in the long run. He basically told the crowd he's courting there shouldn't be a religious test when they are the exact one pushing for such a thing.
 
Forgot to tell y'all...

Sunday I donated $20.08 to Huck's campaign.

I guess you could say that I'm fully invested in a candidate now. :D
 
siamesedreamer said:
Forgot to tell y'all...

Sunday I donated $20.08 to Huck's campaign.

I guess you could say that I'm fully invested in a candidate now. :D

When is your party gonna nominate a moderate on social issues like my boy Rudy!?
 
I don't believe that Newsweek poll for a second. I'm sure the Huckabee camp would have rather that poll stay squashed. As it is, expectations are rising fast and hard.
 
avaya said:
So Giuliani has pretty much fallen off the face of the Earth?

Good times.

Yeah, and he's on Meet The Press tomorrow. Could be the first time a candidate storms off the set. I'm going take a drink everytime he mentions "liberal media," and "political hit job." I don't know how Russert is going to squeeze everything in in one hour.
 

Triumph

Banned
Incognito said:
Yeah, and he's on Meet The Press tomorrow. Could be the first time a candidate storms off the set. I'm going take a drink everytime he mentions "liberal media," and "political hit job." I don't know how Russert is going to squeeze everything in in one hour.
Well, at least he finally has something to say other than 9/11!
 
Incognito said:
I don't believe that Newsweek poll for a second. I'm sure the Huckabee camp would have rather that poll stay squashed. As it is, expectations are rising fast and hard.

Better than slow and flaccid.

FredThompsonProfile.jpg
 
If Huckabee wins, the Dems has this in the bag.

clinton is just too ruthless for poor old, Huckabee, unfortunately. I can see the GOP somewhat being re-energized but it's far too little far too late. Hillary is too established, from her networks nationally down to the micro level. All she had to do was remind everyone of what "evangelicals" could do by pointing towards Bush.

It's unfair to both Evangelicals and Bush, I know, but most people equate the rise of Evangelical power to Bush.

Then there's that whole "GOP CAN'T Decide what they want! they ae too unorganized!" thing that used to dog Democrats.
 

quaere

Member
papelnabangka said:
If Huckabee wins, the Dems has this in the bag.

clinton is just too ruthless for poor old, Huckabee, unfortunately. I can see the GOP somewhat being re-energized but it's far too little far too late. Hillary is too established, from her networks nationally down to the micro level. All she had to do was remind everyone of what "evangelicals" could do by pointing towards Bush.
I was thinking the exact opposite. Huckabee is by far the most well spoken of the Republicans, comes off as the most friendly and down to earth, and the contrast to Hillary would only emphasize why she has such high negatives - the perception that she is a cold, calculating, fake politician.

I think Hillary would match up best against Rudy, and Huckabee with Obama.
 

Cheebs

Member
siamesedreamer said:
Yep, the contrast would be unreal. I think the only way Hillary becomes president is if Guiliani wins the GOP nomination.
Yep. The Clinton team must be really hoping for a rudy nomination, he is by far the candidate the clinton team would be most prepared for and most likely to beat.
 
Triumph said:
It's not looking good for Magic Underwear President!

http://www.newsweek.com/id/74215

HUCKABEE OPENS UP 22 POINT LEAD ON ROMNEY IN IOWA

lol mormons lol


Yeah this is pretty unreal. It's rare to see such a late surge from an obscure candidate particularly in the Republican party.

But I'm not surprised. Aside from his obvious appeal to Evangelicals, he's the only Republican (and possibly Democrat) candidate who's never looked phased or caught off guard in debates and TV interviews. He's so clam and collected, it almost seems like he gets the questions in advance.

That said, he's never quite been under the same heat as the other frontrunners, Rudy and Romny. The Hukabee scrutiny is already starting to begin. Also, there's a danger that he might have peaked a little too early. I bet he wishes it was mid/late December instead of early December.

Personally, as an Independent, Huckabee seems less of a war-monger than the other top Republican candidates. However the fact that Huckabee didn't even know what the NIE was over 36 hours after the report had been released, is a HUGE red x to me. It gave me Katrina flashbacks. I know he's fairly inexperienced on Foreign policy but he shouldn't be brain-dead.
 
Oh, the perils of frontrunner status

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) -- Mike Huckabee once advocated isolating AIDS patients from the general public, opposed increased federal funding in the search for a cure and said homosexuality could ''pose a dangerous public health risk.''

As a candidate for a U.S. Senate seat in 1992, Huckabee answered 229 questions submitted to him by The Associated Press. Besides a quarantine, Huckabee suggested that Hollywood celebrities fund AIDS research from their own pockets, rather than federal health agencies.

Huckabee said Saturday that his comments came at a time when the public was still learning about HIV and AIDS and promised to do ''everything possible to transform the promise of a vaccine and a cure into reality.''

In 1992, Huckabee wrote, ''If the federal government is truly serious about doing something with the AIDS virus, we need to take steps that would isolate the carriers of this plague.''

''It is difficult to understand the public policy towards AIDS. It is the first time in the history of civilization in which the carriers of a genuine plague have not been isolated from the general population, and in which this deadly disease for which there is no cure is being treated as a civil rights issue instead of the true health crisis it represents.''

The AP submitted the questionnaire to both candidates in the 1992 senate race; only Huckabee responded. Incumbent Sen. Dale Bumpers won his fourth term; Huckabee was elected lieutenant governor the next year and became governor in 1996.

When asked about AIDS research in 1992, Huckabee complained that AIDS research received an unfair share of federal dollars when compared to cancer, diabetes and heart disease.

''In light of the extraordinary funds already being given for AIDS research, it does not seem that additional federal spending can be justified,'' Huckabee wrote. ''An alternative would be to request that multimillionaire celebrities, such as Elizabeth Taylor (,) Madonna and others who are pushing for more AIDS funding be encouraged to give out of their own personal treasuries increased amounts for AIDS research.''

rest at link...
 
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