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'The Rise and Fall of Virtual Reality' Verge article

Kreunt

Banned
making thread on behalf of Trojan
This is a super interesting (and very in-depth) article that came out today on The Verge about where VR is currently and where it could be headed. They have detailed interviews with both Cory Ondrejka (Facebook VP credited with Oculus acquisition) and Sony's Shuhei about what they think the future of VR means to them and their companies. Cory has some really interesting takes on spatial navigation that VR could work for, as well as what it wouldn't be good for (e.g. a 3D search engine). It's also somewhat strange he hardly mentions using VR for gaming in his interview.

I searched for a separate thread but couldn't find one, and I'm not a full member yet so can't start a new thread. If someone wants to take this and start a new thread, I think it would spawn a lot of good conversation about the different approach of the 2 companies.

http://www.theverge.com/a/virtual-reality

Watch me rise and fall if old.

edit: if a mod could fix title, that would be great.
 
I don't see Oculus nor Sony being the ones who makes VR go mainstream, nor do I see video games being the stuff that drives it.

It'll be Samsung and stuff from the movie industry that'll drive early adoption, starting next month.
 
I don't see Oculus nor Sony being the ones who makes VR go mainstream, nor do I see video games being the stuff that drives it.

It'll be Samsung and stuff from the movie industry that'll drive early adoption, starting next month.

What happens next month?
 
I don't see Oculus nor Sony being the ones who makes VR go mainstream, nor do I see video games being the stuff that drives it.

It'll be Samsung and stuff from the movie industry that'll drive early adoption, starting next month.

If anything Samsung will poison the well.
 
Some quotes from the Cory Ondrejka and Shuhei interviews (pages 4 and 7, respectively):

Cory Ondrejka, the creator of Second Life, is now VP of engineering at Facebook. Ondrejka introduced Mark Zuckerberg to Oculus, and spearheaded Facebook’s acquisition of the up-and-coming company. Now, it’s Ondrejka’s job to help Oculus build out its virtual reality vision as quickly as possible, and distribute it to millions upon millions of people. He spent a few minutes telling us about his virtual dreams — and how they’re being turned into reality.

Is VR going to bring people closer together or push them further apart?

Ondrejka: So let’s say you have a friend getting married and you can’t be there. Today you’re going to get texts and videos. But what if you could put a 360 video camera in the audience? Then, what you have is an ability to really feel like you’re there, and look around and see what’s going on in a way that’s making an incredible connection. Moviemakers will take advantage of this. You think about what you could do with director’s commentary or additional scenes. What if you could turn around and have these 360-degree views of the set while they’re shooting? Wouldn’t that be the coolest thing ever?

Do you think it could also replace how we use the basic internet?

Ondrejka: [It’s not clear if] the right way to represent the web is some very literal spatial model. That’s where things get more complicated because the web is so vast that spatial models tend to break down. You can’t put enough things close to you if you’re trying to do a truly spatial model. You don’t want text floating in space in random orientations — you want it where you’d hold a book. There are limitations in how we’d consume 2D content in 3D.

What will it take to actually get Morpheus into people’s homes?

Yoshida: The first thing we strongly believe, and Oculus says the same thing, is that we need to deliver the core technology first. We want to make the technology before we bring it to market. The product we have we’re pretty happy with, but there are many areas we can improve on to bring it to an even higher level. And the technology advances every month.

What will the killer app be for Morpheus?

Yoshida: A sense of presence is something that only VR can bring to the market, an experience that gives you a really strong sense of presence somewhere else. That somewhere else has to be really attractive to you, so you want to go back to that space again and again. That will be the killer app for that platform.
 
I don't see Oculus nor Sony being the ones who makes VR go mainstream, nor do I see video games being the stuff that drives it.

It'll be Samsung and stuff from the movie industry that'll drive early adoption, starting next month.

As someone who has never once experienced any kind of motion sickness in my life, including boats, thrill rides, back seat rides on winding roads, or FPS's 4 feet from a 60" display in the dark, I can confirm that both DK1 and DK2 induce a profound and long lasting multi-hour sickness. The idea that Samsung are somehow going to get it right by rushing out cellphone based hardware to be first to market is a long shot (and that's putting it nicely). Now there is the possibility that the key Oculus are missing is something simple (like physical IPD slider for example), but it's much more likely what Samsung are going to do is ruin VR for everyone with a rushed product that the mainstream absolutely shits on.
 
As someone who has never once experienced any kind of motion sickness in my life, including boats, thrill rides, back seat rides on winding roads, or FPS's 4 feet from a 60" display in the dark, I can confirm that both DK1 and DK2 induce a profound and long lasting multi-hour sickness. The idea that Samsung are somehow going to get it right by rushing out cellphone based hardware to be first to market is a long shot (and that's putting it nicely). Now there is the possibility that the key Oculus are missing is something simple (like physical IPD slider for example), but it's much more likely what Samsung are going to do is ruin VR for everyone with a rushed product that the mainstream absolutely shits on.

Yup, seriously. Oculus, Sony and Valve are the only people I currently have any faith in bringing this to market in the right way.

Granted, Samsung is likely only going for movie/media viewing as their first application of the tech, which is a stationary experience.

I also experienced terrible VR sickness from the DK1 when I tried it. The Tuscany demo just killed me. And as with you, the sickness lasted hours after I took it off. But the problem was the lack of positional tracking and the horrendous effect of moving with a controller.

I don't envision Samsung's "movie theatre experience" will involve any movement of your character in the theatre, though the lack of positional tracking will still be a problem.
 
You missed a Rise.
Rise and fall and rise really DID sound appropriate for this.

But before I read the article I do wonder if it's kind of like 3D in that it comes and goes, but gets a more solid foothold each time (3D seems to be more a thing theaters want to push at people now rather than genuinely exciting, but it's not a huge problem to host both 2D and 3D, and many TVs have 3D just because it's a non-issue to include.) I can issues hitting this too and causing another fall, but this time it may remain a relevant option especially for video games rather than "huh, someone put a 3D headset out again."
 
As someone who has never once experienced any kind of motion sickness in my life, including boats, thrill rides, back seat rides on winding roads, or FPS's 4 feet from a 60" display in the dark, I can confirm that both DK1 and DK2 induce a profound and long lasting multi-hour sickness. The idea that Samsung are somehow going to get it right by rushing out cellphone based hardware to be first to market is a long shot (and that's putting it nicely). Now there is the possibility that the key Oculus are missing is something simple (like physical IPD slider for example), but it's much more likely what Samsung are going to do is ruin VR for everyone with a rushed product that the mainstream absolutely shits on.

My sister got motion sickness from Doom on a television.

Good thing is both my sister and you are the minority thus far.
 
It'll likely be the exact same hardware as the rift.

What? Samsung Gear VR is just a holder for a smartphone that will almost certainly be running something like 1080p/60fps with an okay at best FOV. IF you're lucky it'll be low persistence. No way is it going to be on par with Oculus' CV1 unless it's a huge downgrade from current devkits.
 
I don't see Oculus nor Sony being the ones who makes VR go mainstream, nor do I see video games being the stuff that drives it.

It'll be Samsung and stuff from the movie industry that'll drive early adoption, starting next month.

VR can't go mainstream until there are compelling reasons to use it (see: Fire phone, Kinect 2, WiiU, etc etc etc).

Just because it will be released first, doesn't mean that those few who buy it will have a good experience and start a proverbial nuclear reaction of excitement that causes others to buy it as well.

Oculus and Sony are smart for waiting for the content to be ready before releasing it.

Also, the mere fact that people in an enthusiast forum had to ask "wait, what's coming in one month?" shows how much impact it will have at the start.
 
What? Samsung Gear VR is just a holder for a smartphone that will almost certainly be running something like 1080p/60fps with an okay at best FOV. IF you're lucky it'll be low persistence. No way is it going to be on par with Oculus' CV1 unless it's a huge downgrade from current devkits.

I didn't say it was going to be on par with CV1. I said it'll be on par with the rift. It'll be a 1080p low persistence screen at 75 hz.

VR can't go mainstream until there are compelling reasons to use it (see: Fire phone, Kinect 2, WiiU, etc etc etc).

Just because it will be released first, doesn't mean that those few who buy it will have a good experience and start a proverbial nuclear reaction of excitement that causes others to buy it as well.

Oculus and Sony are smart for waiting for the content to be ready before releasing it.

Also, the mere fact that people in an enthusiast forum had to ask "wait, what's coming in one month?" shows how much impact it will have at the start.

There are a number of unannounced software that you don't know about right now.

What does Samsung even have in terms of content lined up?

A lot from movie studios, and also an oculus rift cross-compatibility app.

Almost a zero percentage of this happening. It's going to be low end and will hurt VR more than help it.

Expect it to be essentially DK2.
 
There are a number of unannounced software that you don't know about right now.

OK, but of course I nor anyone else who isn't in the industry can't make predictions on things we don't know about. We have to go off of evidence that we do have. Currently, there's no content for it; as soon as that changes, my prediction may as well. :)
 
I didn't say it was going to be on par with CV1. I said it'll be on par with the rift. It'll be a 1080p low persistence screen at 75 hz.



There are a number of unannounced software that you don't know about right now.



A lot from movie studios, and also an oculus rift cross-compatibility app.



Expect it to be essentially DK2.

Everyone would be shocked if the Note 4's not 1440p, and such a display seems a sure bet for CV1.
 
Quote from Yoshida about Project Morpheus' sound capabilities that I didn't realize:

Yoshida: I believe that 3D sound is an essential part of creating a sense of presence. This is the safest way to avoid technical problems. Without 3D sound it’s very easy to break the immersion. When you see an object to your left, you want to hear the sound that the object creates from your left. So we designed a system to handle all the work of creating 3D sound so that game developers can pretty easily map sounds in the 3D space.

Each sound source has 3D location data so that for every frame, the proper sound is computed to your left ear and right ear. That’s part of Morpheus, and we believe having 3D sound is essential.

That is cool that Sony is going above and beyond to create seamless dev tools for immersion.
 
Interesting read. Maybe it's time to trade up to one of them Oculus things I've been hearing about.
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Quote from Yoshida about Project Morpheus' sound capabilities that I didn't realize:



That is cool that Sony is going above and beyond to create seamless dev tools for immersion.

I've tried one of those binaural recording on normal headphone and it was mindblowing, and I don't even need expensive headphone, it'd be really awesome if that become the standard for all VR content.
 
Man, it would really suck if I'm susceptible to VR sickness. All this waiting for nothing. The only game that has ever given me motion sickness was STALKER with its crazy ass head bob.
 
Man, it would really suck if I'm susceptible to VR sickness. All this waiting for nothing. The only game that has ever given me motion sickness was STALKER with its crazy ass head bob.

I think if you've ever been turned up by a regular monitor, you've got no chance with DK2 class VR, but hopefully they've still got a lot of improvements to go. Personally, I don't even experience any discomfort playing FPS's in Sony's HMZ HMD (which are admittedly easy mode, approximating 40 degree FOV from a distance), but the Rifts tear me up. I can't even describe or immediately identify it cause it's a completely foreign experience for me. I actually used my DK1 off and on for like 2 weeks before I made the connection that the weird feelings were coming after playing it (it's not sudden and immediate, it's a fairly gradual and delayed uneasiness)
 
I want P.T. VR version.

Just that.

I've heard that many times recently. Horror games will have huge followings in VR, even though I think developers will dial it down a little since the immersion can make even the slightest jump scares so intense.
 
im more interested in VR that covers my full peripheral. I dont want to see edges of a face mounted display. But i dont know if that would ever be possible. My knowledge in optics is non existant.

Im wondering if something like Contact Lens Displays can be possible. Could your eye even focus on a display located on a contact lens? how do your eyes focus on displays in VR headsets? (i tried holding my phone directly in front of my face and have to hold it at least an inch or two in order for my eye to even focus, how does VR handle that?)
 
My sister got motion sickness from Doom on a television.

Good thing is both my sister and you are the minority thus far.

Basing a new product on a feature not everyone is physically able to enjoy might diminish that feature's system moving ability... See Nintendo 3DS and the S3D feature.
 
The game isn't designed for VR. Valve has said doing traditional shooters will be hard and require some innovation. Motion sickness being the chief problem.

Yet oddly enough, I wasn't sold on VR until I saw this video of the HL2 VR gun range. Take that, add a ton of huge players with content to follow, and you've got the next big medium.

Razer Hydra is clear proof that Sony screwed up by not introducing analog sticks on Move controllers with lame excuses. Dayum. Luckily, you can add those with extra peripherals attached on the move, but the system lacking it by default really limited its possibilities.
 
I can understand the appeal and i hate to be the one ruining the fun, but VR, in its present state, will only manage to be a short term fad and nothing else.
The hardware is cumbersome and is known to disorient users and it's gonna get old soon.
Until we get to the point where we can effectively achieve holographic projection of high IQ and lag-free, don't expect VR to be widely accepted, just like 3DTV. When we achieve holographic projection it will replace the TV, just like that.
Guy in the interview suggests that VR could get you to a friend's wedding by placing a VR camera there. Such a sweet thought, but you still wont be there, neither for you or your friend. What is needed is a two-way holo-projector, so you could bring the wedding in real time, lag free and in crisp IQ, in your living room while at the same time you could project yoursef to the wedding, or business meeting or whatever.
Isolating yourself with a cumbersome headgear in your head and a stick on your hand won't bring the technological revolution.
 
You really expect display strobing support in the phones? And what about fast positional tracking?

I don't see any particular reason why Samsung couldn't support low persistence on new phones.
I have no idea how they're handling tracking though.
 
You really expect display strobing support in the phones? And what about fast positional tracking?

In theory, positional tracking could be achieved via the cellphone's camera(s). In practice, it would require more computation and more complex object recognition.

Best case scenario: it would be much laggier than having markings on the headset itself and an external camera tracking those instead.

Worst case scenario: it will be horrible.

Display strobing is much easier and a definite possibility if Samsung allows the Note4 to also function as an external VR screen driven by a powerful PC. I can't think of any engineering reason NOT to do it, quite frankly. Samsung has lots of laptops it could push alongside as part of the complete "VR experience".
 
I'd like to try out VR sometime soon but I am very sceptical about it taking off as quickly as people think it will.
 
too "uncannyvalley" of an experience for me.

It seems there was a huge leap forward for headmounted displays with the designs using highres screens with militarygrade sensors that went public around 2010 (anyone remember trying vita at release? the motion sensors felt like space tech).

It is just a proof of concept for now and to be consumer ready it will need well designed games that work within the limits.

I don`t think anyone will buy this thing to play Half Life 2 with a Hydra that they have to recalibrate every 5 minutes and suffer poor aim for the sake of 30 minutes of experimental gameplay.

the games and controls have to be good enough for people to show off and compete with.

P.T. was a good example of a brand new game blowing up on social platforms (thanks to the stupidly simple sharing options on ps4..amazing stuff) - even if it was a traditional control/display game.
 
I want P.T. VR version.

Just that.


That would traumatize me, no joke. I can't imagine doing that in VR. That 'look behind you' shit? I mean, damn... it would just be too much. It would probably kill people.


/edit: however, that does illustrate that VR indeed is the next step for videogames. The sense of presence is unparalleled and what was missing from videogames prior to decent VR solutions. If they manage to work out the nausea issues and streamline the experience, I can't imagine it not taking off in a pretty big way.
 
I can understand the appeal and i hate to be the one ruining the fun, but VR, in its present state, will only manage to be a short term fad and nothing else.
The hardware is cumbersome and is known to disorient users and it's gonna get old soon.
Until we get to the point where we can effectively achieve holographic projection of high IQ and lag-free, don't expect VR to be widely accepted, just like 3DTV. When we achieve holographic projection it will replace the TV, just like that.
Guy in the interview suggests that VR could get you to a friend's wedding by placing a VR camera there. Such a sweet thought, but you still wont be there, neither for you or your friend. What is needed is a two-way holo-projector, so you could bring the wedding in real time, lag free and in crisp IQ, in your living room while at the same time you could project yoursef to the wedding, or business meeting or whatever.
Isolating yourself with a cumbersome headgear in your head and a stick on your hand won't bring the technological revolution.

I can see why the Second Life guy came with that because it's basically Second Life 2. I went to conferences in Second Life when that was hip (though I think it was only ever hip in the scientific community, long after the public discarded it), and it's definitely cute for a one time thing, but not a replacement in any way, shape or form.
 
Yup, seriously. Oculus, Sony and Valve are the only people I currently have any faith in bringing this to market in the right way.

i don't know about sony, being locked on the ps4 could be a big limitation in what you can do with the morpheus
 
This is the stuff that has me most interested in why FB were so interested in OR

Is VR going to bring people closer together or push them further apart?

Ondrejka: So let’s say you have a friend getting married and you can’t be there. Today you’re going to get texts and videos. But what if you could put a 360 video camera in the audience? Then, what you have is an ability to really feel like you’re there, and look around and see what’s going on in a way that’s making an incredible connection. Moviemakers will take advantage of this. You think about what you could do with director’s commentary or additional scenes. What if you could turn around and have these 360-degree views of the set while they’re shooting? Wouldn’t that be the coolest thing ever?

Today, we capture places in a few ways. I can compress a space through text, send it to you, and you reproduce it in your head. I can take a photo that can be incredibly powerful, but it captures a singular moment or singular view. Then you move to video and you have time, you’re moving forward. The next step is actually being able to capture all 360 degrees and depth and everything that’s going on. If I want to get you excited about visiting my favorite spot in Hawaii, looking down at this caldera, that sense of being able to look over the edge is in VR. You’ll say I need to get on a plane and go there tomorrow. That’s what we’re on the cusp of.

The Go Pro has already started to lead on these ideas travelling to places and seeing things from a crazy POV. Can you imagine that kind of stuff with an action film for instance would be a crazy experience. I can already see films that could basically be re-released as OR experiences.
 
You can't re-release an existing non-VR movie for VR. It simply doesn't work. Doing stereoscopic 3D from movie footage is already incredibly dodgy in some cases. VR flat out won't happen.
 
You can't re-release an existing non-VR movie for VR. It simply doesn't work. Doing stereoscopic 3D from movie footage is already incredibly dodgy in some cases. VR flat out won't happen.

You could make an app, that simulates a theatre audience and watch the 3D movie not as a VR-movie, but as a 3D movie in a VR theatre, you could even have the audience's reactions pre-recorded at the right moments like a better laugh-track. You could also have friends join you from around the world like they're sitting next to you. I don't see this as a "killer"-app that drives ANY sales though. Idea is fun anyway.
 
Sure, in fact VR theaters were one of the first things people built for the Rift. But That's not re-releasing the movie as a VR experience.
 
I'd like to try out VR sometime soon but I am very sceptical about it taking off as quickly as people think it will.
I don't think anybody in the know thinks it will take off immediately at all.

Its going to start out as enthusiast hardware. Non-gaming applications wont necessarily all need powerhouse PC's, but for high-end gaming purposes, we need the power required to become more affordable.

Most of all, we simply need to have content. And that doesn't just magically happen. Takes time to develop the content and more importantly, it'll take time to convince content creators that VR is viable and impactful in order for them to take the plunge as well. A lot is happening at the moment, but without at least a good handful of proper quality applications that appeal to traditional gamers and more casual gamers, it might take a while for steam to really pick up.

But I have very little doubt that steam will pick up. At the very least, VR isn't going anywhere. Even if it never catches on in the mainstream, it is not going to fall away from the public eye completely. Flight sims, racing sims and space sims all utilize VR to such extraordinary effect already that there will always be a market for it, the same as there's a market for flight sticks and racing wheels. This is honestly worst-case scenario at this point for VR.

But it is most certainly here to stay, regardless of what happens. Best case scenario is that its somewhat affordable nature, the viable tech and the greater 'acceptance' of gaming nowadays leads to genuine mainstream interest fairly quickly. A couple killer apps within the next year or two make it something that people really want to own, the headsets sell well and it signals a big rush of people and companies eager to jump on the bandwagon and create VR applications, games and experiences. I don't think this is completely unrealistic at all. I don't think it will happen that quickly, but it definitely could. Its very hard to reliably predict consumer trends, especially when there's a lot of stuff in the works that we're unaware of.

Its exciting times.
 
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